Edmonton Goal Scoring in the 4 years after the Vanek offersheet
07-08 17th
08-09 18th
09-10 27th
10-11 27th
Vanek average 34 goals a year in those 4 seasons.
Adding 34 goals per year to Edmonton's totals each year:
07-08 10th
08-09 4th
09-10 7th
10-11 15th
So yes, Vanek would've made them better...
That's not how it works. Vanek playing top line minutes takes 16-20 minutes ice time from other forwards who would've obviously scored some goals that would've helped the goals for total. Obviously he would've helped their scoring (he'd be by far their best forward) but it's not as simple as just adding 30 odd goals a year.
If you want to really come up with a calculation, take the forward with the least ice time, drop them off the team. Then figure out how many goals per minute of TOI the other three wingers scored, adjust their ice time down accordingly, then recalculate their goal totals based on they lower overall ice time and then add Vanek's goals.
This isn't adjusting for the fact with less ice time available and less cap space Edmonton may have had to trade/not resign a scoring forward they otherwise would've kept (that obviously wouldn't be as good as Vanek).
The Sabres have drafted 12th, 16th, 23rd, 13th, and 13th with Vanek.
Its highly unlikely Edmonton is a better team then Buffalo. So your looking at 3-4 top 10 picks. Plus the Sabres would have been worse, so they probably have another 3-4 top 10 picks.
If they walked from Vanek anywhere from 6-8 top 10 picks.
Don't regret matching. If we let him leave after losing Briere and Drury, it would have looked even worse for Golisano and Quinn.
Also, saying we could have got xx player is utterly stupid, Edmonton would have improved with Vanek and they wouldn't have been sellers at deadlines, they would have tried to improve through free agency, wouldn't have went into a rebuild without 1st round picks, etc.
The Sabres have drafted 12th, 16th, 23rd, 13th, and 13th with Vanek.
Its highly unlikely Edmonton is a better team then Buffalo. So your looking at 3-4 top 10 picks. Plus the Sabres would have been worse, so they probably have another 3-4 top 10 picks.
If they walked from Vanek anywhere from 6-8 top 10 picks.
Exactly. Edmonton wouldn't have been that bad, but the Sabres wouldn't have had a "40 goal scorer" either. So one could say Oilers picks slipped, but Buffalo picks would have moved up. In the end it could end up roughly the same.
And already stated you can't just add in his 34 gpg average. Take out their top line left winger, or whatever you want to do to caluclate it. I don't believe he would have made that much of an impact on their actual record out west.
I always said we should have taken the picks. We could have signed SOMEone here as a free agent. Not a 1A winger, but someone of the same caliber as say Koivu or something.
Don't regret matching. If we let him leave after losing Briere and Drury, it would have looked even worse for Golisano and Quinn.
Also, saying we could have got xx player is utterly stupid, Edmonton would have improved with Vanek and they wouldn't have been sellers at deadlines, they would have tried to improve through free agency, wouldn't have went into a rebuild without 1st round picks, etc.
You don't 'go' into rebuild with 1st overall picks. You get those cuz you are the worst team in The league.
Geez you guys make it sous like Vanek would make them play-off contenders. Their still a lottery pick team with Vanek.
Besides, why do u think the compensation is so high for a high profile player/salary?
Exactly. Edmonton wouldn't have been that bad, but the Sabres wouldn't have had a "40 goal scorer" either. So one could say Oilers picks slipped, but Buffalo picks would have moved up. In the end it could end up roughly the same.
And already stated you can't just add in his 34 gpg average. Take out their top line left winger, or whatever you want to do to caluclate it. I don't believe he would have made that much of an impact on their actual record out west.
I always said we should have taken the picks. We could have signed SOMEone here as a free agent. Not a 1A winger, but someone of the same caliber as say Koivu or something.
So could have Edmonton, they were one year off a Cup run that they lost because their goaltender got hurt. Those picks were more likely to be all top 20 picks instead of having even 3 top 10 picks. Edmonton would have been adding for the short term to try and win now. Not getting Vanek took them on a completely different tangent making everything that has happened since irrelevant.
Honestly I thought their cup run was a fluke. Very much unlike the Kings run. LA will be back.
Even if it was fluky, you can't dismiss the fact that they made the playoffs that year and were ravished by injuries the year after. In 2007-08, they missed the playoffs by 3 points; is it a reach to say they would have made it with Vanek? I really don't think so. And again, they would have kept adding players for the shorter term in that time to improve the current team, not build a core for the future.
I think it was a choice that's hard to fault management for making, though it was likely not the 'smart' choice in terms of building a hockey team. Losing Drury + Briere = rebuild mode. Without Vanek we'd likely have been lousy enough to turn those 4 picks into good players.
I don't "regret" (quotes since it wasn't my decision, obviously) it, but even at the time you could see it was probably not the smart move, though I wanted it to happen. At the end of the day we got to watch some competitive hockey and are now in a good position going forward, so no sense looking back and wondering. It could be that we'd not be any better of a position if we did otherwise.
No I agree. At the time it made sense. Looking back it seems like it was the wrong decision.
Shift to Nashville, I couldn't match that offer. $80 Million over six years they have to pay him. If I'm Nashville, and I got nothing for losing Suter, I'm take'n those 4 picks and running.
In Buffalo's case, they just lost 2 core players why not get something from Vanek.
Especially now, when Nashville drafts well, their own picks will improve as I can't see them finishing too high in the standings losing those 2.
I say you have to question the player as to why he hasn't just signed one of the offers Nashville shells out?now they can't trade him, he's signed.
They (being Edmonton) probably make the playoffs in 08, then buy more assets; so unless they still get murked by injuries in 09, Buffalo ends up with a bunch of mid-range stuff and also probably sinks the cap space they get by losing Vanek into Campbell.
They are prospects that we know and some were hits: Myers, some weren't: Kassian, others its too early to know: Pysyk, Armia
Kassian should be considered a hit until shown otherwise. The guy was a rookie last year and there's no reason to think he won't be a good offensive player. Plus his value was apparently Hodgson.
I know Edmonton got Eberle, PRV, Hall and RNH but if Vanek were on the team, I think their record would have improved.
And the biggest thing for me is that the Sabres would most likely not have drafted the same dudes that the Oilers drafted.
As a previous poster mentioned, we could have ended up with Beach, and 3 lesser prospects for all I know.
And if we kept sucking and ended up with 2 picks per draft in the 6-10 draft (that couldn't make the jump immediately), maybe our fan base would suck and Pegula wouldn't have wanted to buy the team.
I know Edmonton got Eberle, PRV, Hall and RNH but if Vanek were on the team, I think their record would have improved.
And the biggest thing for me is that the Sabres would most likely not have drafted the same dudes that the Oilers drafted.
As a previous poster mentioned, we could have ended up with Beach, and 3 lesser prospects for all I know.
And if we kept sucking and ended up with 2 picks per draft in the 6-10 draft (that couldn't make the jump immediately), maybe our fan base would suck and Pegula wouldn't have wanted to buy the team.
Hindsight is hindsight and it's over now.
Everyone tells me how great the Sabres are at drafting, not matching Vanek gives them most likely 2 top 15 picks for 4 years, possible 2 top 10 picks for 4 years.
As it stands right now, matching was the wrong decision, but we have the benefit of knowing the future.
