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Compare and Contrast: Doug Wilson Vs David Poile

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07-22-2012, 12:25 PM
  #26
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Originally Posted by magic school bus View Post
If Wilson has picked Suter and Weber (which he could have), this thread doesn't exist.
Not necessarily, Nashville has a rep for being able to develop high-end defensemen, which is one of the Sharks biggest flaws. If we'd picked Suter and Weber, they're probably #3-4 defensemen.

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07-22-2012, 12:28 PM
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Not necessarily, Nashville has a rep for being able to develop high-end defensemen, which is one of the Sharks biggest flaws. If we'd picked Suter and Weber, they're probably #3-4 defensemen.
I think that's a myth. Look what they've done with Vlasic. There's just too little data to come to that conclusion. I put it more on the luck of the draw and some poor choices in hindsight.

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07-22-2012, 12:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by magic school bus View Post
If Wilson has picked Suter and Weber (which he could have), this thread doesn't exist.
And if your parents used a condom, neither would you so what's your point? That hindsight is 20/20?

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07-22-2012, 12:48 PM
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I think that's a myth. Look what they've done with Vlasic. There's just too little data to come to that conclusion. I put it more on the luck of the draw and some poor choices in hindsight.
Vlasic is one guy who's a #2. We haven't managed to develop a #1 in the past decade. We had a 3rd overall pick and only managed to make Stuey into a #3. Weber was picked in the second round. We've completely ****ed up Petrecki, etc.

And you also discount exactly how great Nashville is at developing #1 defensemen. Hamhuis, Weber, Suter, Timonen, etc.

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07-22-2012, 12:58 PM
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Originally Posted by Led Zappa View Post
I think that's a myth. Look what they've done with Vlasic. There's just too little data to come to that conclusion. I put it more on the luck of the draw and some poor choices in hindsight.
Rathje, Ragnarsson, Zyuzin, Stuart, Ozo, Hannan, Ehrhoff, Preissing, Gorges, Murray, Carle, Vlasic, Demers, Braun. With the exceptions of Ozo and Preissing, the offensive side never quite makes it at least while they are with the Sharks. Both Ehrhoff and Carle have picked up their offensive game since departure. I grant that their development is not the same as when they picked Rathje, but the sample size is far from small and the indicators are much larger than that for which you give credit. And it is the offensive side which is one of the benchmarks to define #1 dmen. It is pretty obvious to all that Vlasic will never have the offensive side which marks a #1.

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07-22-2012, 01:22 PM
  #31
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Rathje, Ragnarsson, Zyuzin, Stuart, Ozo, Hannan, Ehrhoff, Preissing, Gorges, Murray, Carle, Vlasic, Demers, Braun. With the exceptions of Ozo and Preissing, the offensive side never quite makes it at least while they are with the Sharks. Both Ehrhoff and Carle have picked up their offensive game since departure. I grant that their development is not the same as when they picked Rathje, but the sample size is far from small and the indicators are much larger than that for which you give credit. And it is the offensive side which is one of the benchmarks to define #1 dmen. It is pretty obvious to all that Vlasic will never have the offensive side which marks a #1.
Why don't you separate them by what they were projected to be vs what they became. A little history wouldn't hurt either. What has Carle done offensively since he was traded, Ehrhoff didn't exactly shine last year, Georges was still young and not filled out when we traded him etc etc etc...

Was Murray even supposed to make an NHL Roster when he was picked? Vlasic was picked 35th. Was Hannan ever supposed to be an offensive D man? Demers and Braun were 7th round picks. How is that not considered being able to develop defensemen? Hopefully they haven't even peeked yet. And from what I've read, Petrecki hasn't been able to do what's been asked of him. Coaches may help, but they can't turn mud into wine.

Just because we haven't turned any into #1 Weber's or Suters does not mean the Sharks haven't developed talent in this area. They just haven't hit the lotto.

I could ask for more, but I'm not as harsh on them as others around here.

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07-22-2012, 01:38 PM
  #32
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Why don't you separate them by what they were projected to be vs what they became. A little history wouldn't hurt either. What has Carle done offensively since he was traded, Ehrhoff didn't exactly shine last year, Georges was still young and not filled out when we traded him etc etc etc...

Was Murray even supposed to make an NHL Roster when he was picked? Vlasic was picked 35th. Was Hannan ever supposed to be an offensive D man? Demers and Braun were 7th round picks. How is that not considered being able to develop defensemen? Hopefully they haven't even peeked yet. And from what I've read, Petrecki hasn't been able to do what's been asked of him. Coaches may help, but they can't turn mud into wine.

Just because we haven't turned any into #1 Weber's or Suters does not mean the Sharks haven't developed talent in this area. They just haven't hit the lotto.

I could ask for more, but I'm not as harsh on them as others around here.
If you are bent on winning, it is helpful to turn out #1's. And developing/drafting elite skills generally is a benchmark for winning cups. You can't just keep going middle of the road which is what they have done. The Sharks are assuredly behind the eightball in this regard. They have had enough years as an org to have cranked out one or two #1 dmen. They haven't. Draft position is not as critical for #1 dmen. Many are later round gems (eg Chara, Weber, Lidstrom, Keith, etc.).

I am not saying every guy, but one of them should have come through so listing projections is not so important. Vlasic, Stuart, Zyuzin, etc. did have the numbers to project as offensive guys. Ehrhoff had two years before last year in the top ten defensive scorers. His underlying (indirect) offensive numbers are huge. He has been twice in the top 10 for Norris voting (ahead of Boyle) and has been on the All-Star ballot. Carle was a big part of a Philly team getting farther than the Sharks ever have.

For all the harshness you attribute to myself and others, you have your own. Your comment on Ehrhoff being a case in point.

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07-22-2012, 01:41 PM
  #33
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Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
If you are bent on winning, it is helpful to turn out #1's. And developing/drafting elite skills generally is a benchmark for winning cups. You can't just keep going middle of the road which is what they have done. The Sharks are assuredly behind the eightball in this regard. They have had enough years as an org to have cranked out one or two #1 dmen. They haven't. Draft position is not as critical for #1 dmen. Many are later round gems (eg Chara, Weber, Lidstrom, Keith, etc.).

I am not saying every guy, but one of them should have come through so listing projections is not so important. Vlasic, Stuart, Zyuzin, etc. did have the numbers to project as offensive guys. Ehrhoff had two years before last year in the top ten defensive scorers. His underlying (indirect) offensive numbers are huge. He has been twice in the top 10 for Norris voting (ahead of Boyle) and has been on the All-Star ballot. Carle was a big part of a Philly team getting farther than the Sharks ever have.

For all the harshness you attribute to myself and others, you have your own. Your comment on Ehrhoff being a case in point.
My comment on Ehrhoff was to point out that he did much better on a SC worthy team and a defensive game that suited him and had nothing to do with development, but you keep on trying to pigeonhole me as an Ehrhoff basher. It's what you do when people disagree with you on a player you love.

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07-22-2012, 01:47 PM
  #34
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My comment on Ehrhoff was to point out that he did much better on a SC worthy team and a defensive game that suited him and had nothing to do with development, but you keep on trying to pigeonhole me as an Ehrhoff basher. It's what you do when people disagree with you on a player you love.
You have missed my comments. I am don't love Ehrhoff as a player but I am appalled by the number of undeserved negatives. And I also picked up where he did well even before he left SJ. His success in Vancouver was in a system that was set for him not because they were cup caliber. He likely would have done well in Florida in Campbell's role there. He is not so good for a grind game which is what he had with SJ in his last year in teal and last year in Buffalo (Ruff needs to match his team's style to the personnel he has which means don't run a grind game).

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07-22-2012, 02:01 PM
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Small thought. Would opinions change if Poile matches the offer to Weber? (Just a note, most offersheets have been matched in recent years, including ridiculous offers like Vanek's.)
I would've like to see what he would've gotten in a Weber trade (since I think that's the best option), but since the only options are 4 1sts or 14/110 I would match. I don't think it will hold back their team too much since they don't spend to the cap anyways -- and when their team is ready to make a run, they acquire a lot of guys at the deadline (a time when the cap hits don't really matter).

If they have to, they can still get a King's ransom for Weber in a year or two via trade.

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07-22-2012, 02:11 PM
  #36
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I would've like to see what he would've gotten in a Weber trade (since I think that's the best option), but since the only options are 4 1sts or 14/110 I would match. I don't think it will hold back their team too much since they don't spend to the cap anyways -- and when their team is ready to make a run, they acquire a lot of guys at the deadline (a time when the cap hits don't really matter).

If they have to, they can still get a King's ransom for Weber in a year or two via trade.
IMO, they will match for the reasons you gave. The only hold up would be the underlying real payroll issues as opposed to cap hit. It will probably cost them $1.5mil/year in non-payroll costs to sign the contract (debt service and insurance) over the first half of the contract so it is a pretty big ticket.

Conceivably, they could buy expiring frontloads in trade to alleviate financial issues (guys like Briere and Timonen).

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07-22-2012, 02:17 PM
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And if your parents used a condom, neither would you so what's your point? That hindsight is 20/20?
.There's so much luck involved with this stuff that it's impossible to know who's better at their job. We don't even know where all the ideas are coming from. Neither of them is doing the drafting yet we give DW credit for a Pavelski or Clowe, and we give Poile credit for having Weber or Rinne.

They are both good GMs but both are overrated. The jobs opportunities aren't the same either, since SJ spends more and division rivalries limit who will trade with you. (Ex. we won't trade with LA, but they could ... etc). Comparing apples to oranges.

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07-22-2012, 02:57 PM
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One thing to keep in mind is that Poile was publicly given the green light to spend to the cap. The preds owners said they no longer wanted to lose players due to financial reasons. Poile just couldn't get it done. He failed to manage his team and retain his players. Nashville was considered a cup contender. This was not a matter of Poile being handcuffed by the owners. This was him failing to accomplish what Doug Wilson accomplished post lockout.

IMO you can talk about Poiles draft success all you want, but what has that accomplished him? If they don't match Weber the Preds will plummet in value. If he does the franchise will have trouble absorbing that 20 some odd million. He is in a no win situation as a direct result of his failings. If you think the Preds can count on drafting another Weber in the near future... well they can't

And another thing there is no way the Preds actually anticipated how good Weber was going to be, no one did. They had some idea about Suter...


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07-22-2012, 03:00 PM
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Rathje, Ragnarsson, Zyuzin, Stuart, Ozo, Hannan, Ehrhoff, Preissing, Gorges, Murray, Carle, Vlasic, Demers, Braun. With the exceptions of Ozo and Preissing, the offensive side never quite makes it at least while they are with the Sharks. Both Ehrhoff and Carle have picked up their offensive game since departure. I grant that their development is not the same as when they picked Rathje, but the sample size is far from small and the indicators are much larger than that for which you give credit. And it is the offensive side which is one of the benchmarks to define #1 dmen. It is pretty obvious to all that Vlasic will never have the offensive side which marks a #1.
So what do a lot of those picks have to do with Wilson?

As for you Vlasic comment, I am really curious to see how well Suter does on Minnesota with their terrible defense. What is it about Suter that gives him that number 1 status? It certainly isn't his shot


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07-22-2012, 03:16 PM
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So what do a lot of those picks have to do with Wilson?
Because they've had the same drafting and development even prior to Wilson.

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07-22-2012, 03:19 PM
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Because they've had the same drafting and development even prior to Wilson.
Burke picked Zuyin? A coaching staff hired by Wilson developed him at the NHL level? You can't pin a lot of those guys on Wilson

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07-22-2012, 03:23 PM
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Burke picked Zuyin? A coaching staff hired by Wilson developed him at the NHL level? You can't pin a lot of those guys on Wilson
It is Wilson's decision to continue on with Burke and Sommer as integral parts of the team's drafting and development. Each of their past histories is applicable for criticism. And even prior to him being the GM, he was director of pro development for six years so he had his hand in both of those things as well.

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07-22-2012, 06:28 PM
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It is Wilson's decision to continue on with Burke and Sommer as integral parts of the team's drafting and development. Each of their past histories is applicable for criticism. And even prior to him being the GM, he was director of pro development for six years so he had his hand in both of those things as well.
Ok sure Burke just became the head of scouting during the year Zyuzin was drafted, although I'm not completely sure sure he made the selection. In other words I'm not entirely sure when he was promoted.

I do know that right after that he followed with Sturm, Marleau, Hannan and Stuart. Thats a pretty nice draft pull. Sturm was the same year.

You do realize the Sharks are tied for first for the most homegrown talent on their roster right? Why fix something that isn't broken

Was Sommer the coach of Knetucky? If not he had nothing to do with Zyuzin either. I don't think Sommer came into the picture until 1998. Since 1998 the Sharks have had a good history of converting picks into NHL talent


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07-22-2012, 06:38 PM
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What is it about Suter that gives him that number 1 status? It certainly isn't his shot
An above average shot. Being able to make a great stretch pass, and having the ability to walk the puck in the zone when the pass isn't open. Elite defense.
You really have to watch Suter play to understand his skillsets. It might take him a while for his offense to adjust to a new system, but his defense should still be top-notch.

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07-22-2012, 06:47 PM
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An above average shot. Being able to make a great stretch pass, and having the ability to walk the puck in the zone when the pass isn't open. Elite defense.
You really have to watch Suter play to understand his skillsets. It might take him a while for his offense to adjust to a new system, but his defense should still be top-notch.
Actually never mind you are entitled to your opinion and I'd rather this thread stay on topic


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07-22-2012, 07:46 PM
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So what do a lot of those picks have to do with Wilson?

As for you Vlasic comment, I am really curious to see how well Suter does on Minnesota with their terrible defense. What is it about Suter that gives him that number 1 status? It certainly isn't his shot
Suter will be huge for Minny on outlets as well as being a shutdown. They haven't had an outlet game at all really.

The issue isn't grabbing NHL talent; it is grabbing elite NHL talent. In 20 years, Marleau with marginal arguments for Ozo, Ehrhoff, Carle, Couture and Whitney. Other orgs who actually win the silver thingy would have 4 or 5 guys over the same time period in the elite category (not marginal). They have had their share of top 5 picks to do that.

The Sharks once topped the league for homegrown. That isn't the case any longer. Very middle of the pack. At one time they were near top of the league for quantity of NHL players and that number is descending (they got hot when Sommer and Burke first started). Some of the numbers to support their drafting/development are still good, but they are diminishing. Last year the Sharks were sitting on the dead center number, 23, for NHL talent.

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07-22-2012, 10:10 PM
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Suter will be huge for Minny on outlets as well as being a shutdown. They haven't had an outlet game at all really.

The issue isn't grabbing NHL talent; it is grabbing elite NHL talent. In 20 years, Marleau with marginal arguments for Ozo, Ehrhoff, Carle, Couture and Whitney. Other orgs who actually win the silver thingy would have 4 or 5 guys over the same time period in the elite category (not marginal). They have had their share of top 5 picks to do that.

The Sharks once topped the league for homegrown. That isn't the case any longer. Very middle of the pack. At one time they were near top of the league for quantity of NHL players and that number is descending (they got hot when Sommer and Burke first started). Some of the numbers to support their drafting/development are still good, but they are diminishing. Last year the Sharks were sitting on the dead center number, 23, for NHL talent.
There hasn't been a big focus on drafting for a number of years. In the past five years they have only had 2 firsts. One of which, the prospect was traded away. So Hertl power is the first in five years that has a chance of being developed by the Sharks. Poile started and would have continued trading picks too.

Counting on drafting super starts probably isn't very wise, especially for the Sharks


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07-22-2012, 10:21 PM
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They way I saw it Nashville had a chance to become a cap paying upper mid teir franchise like what the Sharks became under Doug Wilson. The middle class of the NHL if you will. By all accounts including Poile himself, the owners were prepared for that leap, but Poile failed to deliver and Nashville got hosed. Their value will be deflated regardless of what the outcome of the Weber deal is.

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07-23-2012, 08:32 AM
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Ok sure Burke just became the head of scouting during the year Zyuzin was drafted, although I'm not completely sure sure he made the selection. In other words I'm not entirely sure when he was promoted.

I do know that right after that he followed with Sturm, Marleau, Hannan and Stuart. Thats a pretty nice draft pull. Sturm was the same year.

You do realize the Sharks are tied for first for the most homegrown talent on their roster right? Why fix something that isn't broken

Was Sommer the coach of Knetucky? If not he had nothing to do with Zyuzin either. I don't think Sommer came into the picture until 1998. Since 1998 the Sharks have had a good history of converting picks into NHL talent
Burke was the head just prior to the '96 draft and was a scout prior to that so he was informed about his position and knew what he was doing going in. Nobody is saying that he hasn't had good years now and again. You don't stay employed this long if you sucked every year.

The homegrown talent point you made doesn't mean much. Most of the Sharks' homegrown talent is in secondary or tertiary positions with the lone exception being Patrick Marleau. And yes, I do consider Joe Pavelski, even with his great year, a secondary player as he is not an elite top line talent. You ask why fix something that's not broken? I don't think that's the question you should be asking. You should be asking how to make it better. The Wings in the position that the Sharks were in for the last seven years were able to find exceptionally talented players to take over as stars down the road. The Sharks haven't really done that.

There's only so long the team can live off of churning out complimentary players and they'd be better now if they had drafted and developed guys with higher ceilings rather than limited players with a lot of drive.

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07-23-2012, 11:08 AM
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When the Sharks hired Johnson, my friend was estatic because he thought Johnson would repalce Sommer. I asked him why he disliked Sommer, and asked me this: List the defensemen Sommer has developed since the lockout:

The top ones I could think of were Murray, Ehrhoff, Gorges, Demers, and Braun. The latter two have a long-way to go.

Of the three, Murray is the only one who only "exceeded expectations". Ehrhof had an incredibly long learning curve which one could attribute to Sommer, and Gorges only blossomed when he left SJ.

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