HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > NHL Western Conference > Pacific Division > Edmonton Oilers
Mobile Hockey's Future Become a Sponsor Site Rules Support Forum vBookie Page 2
Notices

Most underrated Oiler?

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old
07-20-2012, 11:20 AM
  #51
Moose Coleman
Registered User
 
Moose Coleman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 3,857
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ogopogo View Post
You can't point to goaltending stats to make a case, they are simply ureliable as they are far too dependent on the defense in front of the goalie.
True for some, not for all. Save percentage for example, is a a good measure of individual goaltending performance.

Quote:
When Khabi was first here, he was excellent behind a piss-poor defense.
In his first year where he only played 18 games? Or his second year where he was middle of the pack among goalies who played 40+ in terms of the number of shots he faced behind that "piss poor defense" and still crapped the bed?

Moose Coleman is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
07-20-2012, 11:24 AM
  #52
Ogopogo*
 
Ogopogo*'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Edmonton
Country: Canada
Posts: 14,214
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Moose Coleman View Post
True for some, not for all. Save percentage for example, is a a good measure of individual goaltending performance.



In his first year where he only played 18 games? Or his second year where he was middle of the pack among goalies who played 40+ in terms of the number of shots he faced behind that "piss poor defense" and still crapped the bed?
Save % is a very poor way to measure goaltending performance. The defense in front of the goalie has a SIGNIFICANT impact on that number.

Ever wonder why Grant Fuhr won a Vezina with a save % in the middle of the pack? The Oil was all out offense, he had breakaways and many odd-man rushes to face. He had no chance to compete with Roy's save % on a Montreal team that was all defense and allowed only unscreened shots from the point much of the time.

Fuhr was the better goalie in the late 80s and no statistic will prove it. Watching him play did.

Khabi's numbers are in part due to piss-poor D in front of him.


Last edited by Ogopogo*: 07-20-2012 at 11:30 AM.
Ogopogo* is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-20-2012, 11:26 AM
  #53
Ogopogo*
 
Ogopogo*'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Edmonton
Country: Canada
Posts: 14,214
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jepprey View Post
Sorry, I wasn't actually justify his defensive acumen strictly from those two stats. I just thought I'd bring it up since that's what you usually ask for from a shutdown defender such as Smid. He doesn't bleed Goals against and never really gets outplayed in his zone. That's a win in my books. lol. I thought it was apparent Smid (later Schultz) was the one holding down the fort on the defensive side of things all year. Whereas you have Whitney, Potter and Barker being shaky as hell defensively against weaker competition.

My guess is, some people may not be high on Smid because he brings in no offense from the blue line. I remember a few people on HF ragging on Smid for not putting up 40 points while playing 1st pairing minutes.
I have seen many goals against where he made mistakes that cost us. That is my measure. As I said, I will watch him closer next year but, he has shown nothing to make me think he is above average thus far.

Ogopogo* is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-20-2012, 11:29 AM
  #54
stratedge
Rebuild, year 4...
 
stratedge's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Calgary, AB
Country: Canada
Posts: 4,323
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by gpearson1968 View Post
Fedun........can't wait to see him skate again.
Agreed. Fedun, Gagner, Horcoff, although I think maybe Fedun spends most of the season in the AHL this year to adapt.

stratedge is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-20-2012, 11:56 AM
  #55
Moose Coleman
Registered User
 
Moose Coleman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 3,857
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ogopogo View Post
Save % is a very poor way to measure goaltending performance. The defense in front of the goalie has a SIGNIFICANT impact on that number.
Not really. All SV% measures is how many shots on goal a goalie stops, which as about as individually-focused a measurement as you can get. Now you could argue that defense contributes to how many shots a goalie faces, but here Khabibulin faced a slightly lower than average volume of shots and still came out looking like crap.

Quote:
Ever wonder why Grant Fuhr won a Vezina with a save % in the middle of the pack?
No, it's obvious why he won: he played 75 games and led the league in wins (40) and shut outs as a result. His stats in '88 were almost identical to his stats in '87.

Quote:
The Oil was all out offense, he had breakaways and many odd-man rushes to face. He had no chance to compete with Roy's save % on a Montreal team that was all defense.

Fuhr was the better goalie in the late 80s and no statistic will prove it. Watching him play did.
Uh huh. Sure. Funny how Grant Fuhr always had similar stats to his back ups who, presumably, would have had to face just as many breakaways and odd man rushes as he did. Funny how Fuhr never played as well elsewhere as he did when he was behind the best team of all time.

Moose Coleman is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
07-20-2012, 12:07 PM
  #56
Hemskyfanboy83
Registered User
 
Hemskyfanboy83's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 6,504
vCash: 500
On the Oiler board, it is pretty easy to separate over-rated and under-rated.

Under-rated : Everybody over the age of 25
Over-rated: Everybody under the age of 23 (except RNH)

Hemskyfanboy83 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-20-2012, 12:17 PM
  #57
Ogopogo*
 
Ogopogo*'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Edmonton
Country: Canada
Posts: 14,214
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Moose Coleman View Post
Not really. All SV% measures is how many shots on goal a goalie stops, which as about as individually-focused a measurement as you can get. Now you could argue that defense contributes to how many shots a goalie faces, but here Khabibulin faced a slightly lower than average volume of shots and still came out looking like crap.



No, it's obvious why he won: he played 75 games and led the league in wins (40) and shut outs as a result. His stats in '88 were almost identical to his stats in '87.



Uh huh. Sure. Funny how Grant Fuhr always had similar stats to his back ups who, presumably, would have had to face just as many breakaways and odd man rushes as he did. Funny how Fuhr never played as well elsewhere as he did when he was behind the best team of all time.
So, you are basically saying that you rely on skewed stats to make your case and you don't watch how the goaltenders perform.

We will have to disagree. There are no goaltender stats that tell you the true story. The team in front of the goaltender always skews the numbers. You have to watch them play.

Ogopogo* is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-20-2012, 12:28 PM
  #58
Moose Coleman
Registered User
 
Moose Coleman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 3,857
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ogopogo View Post
So, you are basically saying that you rely on skewed stats to make your case and you don't watch how the goaltenders perform.
Where did I say that? Khabi was bad by the numbers and by the eye.

Quote:
We will have to disagree. There are no goaltender stats that tell you the true story. The team in front of the goaltender always skews the numbers. You have to watch them play.
So if the team skews the numbers so much, why are Dubnyk's results on the same team so much better? If he's the worse goalie playing on the same team, his numbers should be much worse.

Moose Coleman is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
07-20-2012, 12:58 PM
  #59
Eskimo44
Registered User
 
Eskimo44's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 5,533
vCash: 500
Hemsky, Gagner, Horcoff are underrated.

Hemsky is the winner in this. The guy was 14th in ppg for all wingers since the lockout before this season, ahead of guys like Nash, yet some fans think we should get rid of him. Hemsky is a star player, and we are lucky to have a player of his caliber. Even his injury woes have become exaggerated. Besides the 2 shoulder injury shortened year he missed just over 10 games per year, which is the league average. There is no doubt injuries are an issue, but this season for example he never suffered a new injury. 2 games for a cold/sinus issue, and the rest to continue rehabing his shoulder. We got Hemsky on a discount at 5 per, and next season a lot of Oiler fans will be happy we did i'm thinking.

Gagner, he's 22. He's not the problem and he keeps improving in the areas we want him too. Why do we need to give up on guys so fast?

I know Horcoff will piss people off, but he went from being this teams number 1 offenseive center to the teams number 1 defensive center. He's done a good job of sheltering the kids at EVStrength, where he is far from the problem. On the PK he's been huge, and was even good in his PP role (albeit i wouldn't play him so much there). Excellent leader in that he shows up in shape and gives it his all, too bad being overpaid by a couple million makes people hate on him irrationally IMO.

Eskimo44 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-20-2012, 01:01 PM
  #60
Puritania
Skooma Addict
 
Puritania's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Omicron Persei 8
Country: Canada
Posts: 6,822
vCash: 423
Outside of HF Oil I'd have to say it goes...

Smid
Gagner & Hemsky
Hall

Puritania is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-20-2012, 01:01 PM
  #61
Jepprey
Creeper
 
Jepprey's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Country: United States
Posts: 3,657
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ogopogo View Post
I have seen many goals against where he made mistakes that cost us. That is my measure. As I said, I will watch him closer next year but, he has shown nothing to make me think he is above average thus far.
That's the thing though, I don't know if you watch any other games other than Oilers games, but shutdown defensemen ALWAYS get scored on (they play against the best). It's no different with Smid. The best of them can and will make mistakes. All you can ask for is that he does not bleed GA (which he clearly didn't). Just remember, we have seen the kids poop on Keith/Seabrook and Suter/Weber (arguably the top two duos in the league) multiple times this season because of their "mistakes".

I hate using +/- as evidence, but I think it's significant when talking about Smid, who was +4 on a crappy team playing as the #1 shutdown dman. I'm also not a fan of advanced stats, but I'm sure those numbers look nice as well for a shutdown dman. (don't have those numbers handy). haha.

I guess we are on different sides on Smid. When I watch him play, I see a warrior on the backend. I'm not saying he's a superstar or anything, but calling him average is selling him short. He has really come into his own this past season and I hope he further improves his consistency. I hope he can change your mind next season. Like i said, it would be ideal if he was on the second pairing LD. 21 mins. 15-20 points 190bs/190hits.

Jepprey is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-20-2012, 01:49 PM
  #62
NMK
Registered User
 
NMK's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Country: Canada
Posts: 1,109
vCash: 500
Petrell and Gagner.

NMK is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-20-2012, 02:26 PM
  #63
Homesick
HFBoards Sponsor
 
Homesick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Calgary
Country: Canada
Posts: 8,688
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by OilCountry84 View Post
Easily Hemsky IMO. Dude still has 70+ point potential....and people still slot him into a 3rd line role.
We've been talking about his potential for a decade. He is what he is. A second liner on most teams but he wont be for long on this team with Eberle(who's clearly better), and Yakupov(who has the potential to be vastly superior)

I'm going with Dubnyk. .914SV% and wins vs. PIT, PHI, FLA, DET, LA, NSH, CHI, SJS, and most importantly CGY is pretty good despite the flak he gets

Homesick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-20-2012, 02:29 PM
  #64
Petro Points
Registered User
 
Petro Points's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 14,343
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by WeridAl View Post
Nick Schultz
+1...
most have penciled him in on our bottom pair (Whitney, Justin, Smid, Petry being top 4). He is a solid Dman and prove that he is no less then any Oiler Dman.

Petro Points is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-20-2012, 03:12 PM
  #65
backhandsauce
Registered User
 
backhandsauce's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 1,755
vCash: 500
the draft lottery machine

backhandsauce is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
07-20-2012, 03:26 PM
  #66
Hockey Buddha
Darnell Nurse
 
Hockey Buddha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 2,360
vCash: 500
Theo Peckham was brutal last season, but he shouldn't be written off as many have done with him. I'd say Alex Plante is also much closer to making this team than most people realise. Finally, I'd argue that Sam Gagner will break out this season quieting his detractors.

Hockey Buddha is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-20-2012, 03:28 PM
  #67
CorpseFX
Registered User
 
CorpseFX's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Milwaukee
Country: Slovakia
Posts: 7,711
vCash: 50
when you finish dead last the past few years or close to it - and you already know 18-20 year olds are better than your vets - its hard to say anyone is "underrated".

Smid came on last year in a big way where he finally turned a corner on ice asserting himself to his potential. Jones is a solid pick. i dont think people underrate him, though. he's a really solid blue collar player with some scoring touch. that was known about him since college and NSH.

the rest are all wax/wane type characters and pretty WYSIWYG

if we got a really solid year out of Eric Belanger next season, like he's capable of - with everyone else playing up to par - that could be a real interesting shot in the arm on the bottom 6.

CorpseFX is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
07-20-2012, 03:39 PM
  #68
Homesick
HFBoards Sponsor
 
Homesick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Calgary
Country: Canada
Posts: 8,688
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ogopogo View Post
So, you are basically saying that you rely on skewed stats to make your case and you don't watch how the goaltenders perform.

We will have to disagree. There are no goaltender stats that tell you the true story. The team in front of the goaltender always skews the numbers. You have to watch them play.
So the 29th team in the league is a benefit to a goaltender? I don't care much for GAA% because some goaltenders face 40 shots a game and some face 20. Sv% is the most accurate stat to evaluate a goaltender

Homesick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-20-2012, 03:48 PM
  #69
Gord
MoneyGuy is smarter
 
Gord's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Edmonton
Country: Canada
Posts: 6,643
vCash: 150
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lay Z Boy GM View Post
Smid is probably underrated by non-Oiler fans. It's completely understandable considering he's a shutdown dman that provides almost no offence. As good as he is he might actually be overrated by Oilers fans.
you're right. It's hard to get an appreciation for the style of play someone like Smid has if you don't get to watch the player all the time. Smid doesn't do any of the things that are normally shown on the highlights. I guess he'll just have to wait until the reputation he continues to develop with opposing players finally filters out to media and other teams fans. to be fair, until this past year he hadn't developed enough and played well enough to be deserving of a higher level of attention around the league.

Gord is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-20-2012, 03:52 PM
  #70
Gord
MoneyGuy is smarter
 
Gord's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Edmonton
Country: Canada
Posts: 6,643
vCash: 150
Quote:
Originally Posted by Homesick View Post
We've been talking about his potential for a decade. He is what he is. A second liner on most teams but he wont be for long on this team with Eberle(who's clearly better), and Yakupov(who has the potential to be vastly superior)

I'm going with Dubnyk. .914SV% and wins vs. PIT, PHI, FLA, DET, LA, NSH, CHI, SJS, and most importantly CGY is pretty good despite the flak he gets
agreed.
I think hemsky is rated right where he should be on HF boards, and is just overrated by a lot of Oiler fans.
gott alove guys like eskimo44 "but this season for example he never suffered a new injury" - yeah, that's a selling point. lol

also, I am a Horcoff fan, but I don't understand how anyone can think he could be the most underrated Oiler. I think opinion on this site is pretty accurate to what Horcoff brings to the table.


Last edited by Gord: 07-20-2012 at 04:01 PM.
Gord is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-20-2012, 03:55 PM
  #71
kold
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: Edmonton
Posts: 142
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Homesick View Post
So the 29th team in the league is a benefit to a goaltender? I don't care much for GAA% because some goaltenders face 40 shots a game and some face 20. Sv% is the most accurate stat to evaluate a goaltender
sv% stat does not account for quality of shots against. A goalie facing a higher proportion of high quality shots will see his sv% impacted negatively. Obviously, the quality of your defence and their ability to limit shots from quality shooting areas has a direct correlation on sv% thus evaluating goaltender performance by doing a strict comparison of this statistic where the goaltenders played on different teams is a flawed study.

A more objective way to compare would be to study sv% on scoring chances in conjunction with overall sv%.

kold is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-20-2012, 05:53 PM
  #72
Gone
Fire KLowe
 
Gone's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Earth
Posts: 2,621
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eskimo44 View Post
Hemsky, Gagner, Horcoff are underrated.

Hemsky is the winner in this. The guy was 14th in ppg for all wingers since the lockout before this season, ahead of guys like Nash, yet some fans think we should get rid of him. Hemsky is a star player, and we are lucky to have a player of his caliber. Even his injury woes have become exaggerated. Besides the 2 shoulder injury shortened year he missed just over 10 games per year, which is the league average. There is no doubt injuries are an issue, but this season for example he never suffered a new injury. 2 games for a cold/sinus issue, and the rest to continue rehabing his shoulder. We got Hemsky on a discount at 5 per, and next season a lot of Oiler fans will be happy we did i'm thinking.

Gagner, he's 22. He's not the problem and he keeps improving in the areas we want him too. Why do we need to give up on guys so fast?

I know Horcoff will piss people off, but he went from being this teams number 1 offenseive center to the teams number 1 defensive center. He's done a good job of sheltering the kids at EVStrength, where he is far from the problem. On the PK he's been huge, and was even good in his PP role (albeit i wouldn't play him so much there). Excellent leader in that he shows up in shape and gives it his all, too bad being overpaid by a couple million makes people hate on him irrationally IMO.
Hemsky is the most overrated Oiler.

Khabi was overrated and that is why Tambo was suckered into giving him a 4 year deal.

Gagner was overrated because of his rookie season.

Gone is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-20-2012, 06:23 PM
  #73
Wheatking
Registered User
 
Wheatking's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Country: Canada
Posts: 15,236
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
Nick Schultz. People moan and groan about losing Gilbert, but he is the perfect mentor and partner for our young D.
I keep forgetting he's on the team so I would agree that he's pretty underrated

Wheatking is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-20-2012, 07:26 PM
  #74
Johnny Bravo
Avi until he's fired
 
Johnny Bravo's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Fire Eakins
Country: Canada
Posts: 4,405
vCash: 500
Honestly after seeing some of the comments in the last 4 months..... I would say Yakupov.

Johnny Bravo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-20-2012, 07:51 PM
  #75
Psycho Dad
Oil Kings
 
Psycho Dad's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Sherwood Park
Posts: 10,550
vCash: 610
Quote:
Originally Posted by Okanagan Oil View Post
the draft lottery machine
Probably the most correct answer on here.

Honestly, I'd wager that for any roster Oiler, maybe 2% at most of HF posters underrate him.

This team is 29th for a very good reason.

It's the equivalent of standing up after a nice bowel movement, turning around, looking in the bowl, and telling your deposit that it's worse than ****.

Psycho Dad is online now   Reply With Quote
Reply

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 12:31 PM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. ©2014 All Rights Reserved.