You can't point to goaltending stats to make a case, they are simply ureliable as they are far too dependent on the defense in front of the goalie.
True for some, not for all. Save percentage for example, is a a good measure of individual goaltending performance.
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When Khabi was first here, he was excellent behind a piss-poor defense.
In his first year where he only played 18 games? Or his second year where he was middle of the pack among goalies who played 40+ in terms of the number of shots he faced behind that "piss poor defense" and still crapped the bed?
True for some, not for all. Save percentage for example, is a a good measure of individual goaltending performance.
In his first year where he only played 18 games? Or his second year where he was middle of the pack among goalies who played 40+ in terms of the number of shots he faced behind that "piss poor defense" and still crapped the bed?
Save % is a very poor way to measure goaltending performance. The defense in front of the goalie has a SIGNIFICANT impact on that number.
Ever wonder why Grant Fuhr won a Vezina with a save % in the middle of the pack? The Oil was all out offense, he had breakaways and many odd-man rushes to face. He had no chance to compete with Roy's save % on a Montreal team that was all defense and allowed only unscreened shots from the point much of the time.
Fuhr was the better goalie in the late 80s and no statistic will prove it. Watching him play did.
Khabi's numbers are in part due to piss-poor D in front of him.
Sorry, I wasn't actually justify his defensive acumen strictly from those two stats. I just thought I'd bring it up since that's what you usually ask for from a shutdown defender such as Smid. He doesn't bleed Goals against and never really gets outplayed in his zone. That's a win in my books. lol. I thought it was apparent Smid (later Schultz) was the one holding down the fort on the defensive side of things all year. Whereas you have Whitney, Potter and Barker being shaky as hell defensively against weaker competition.
My guess is, some people may not be high on Smid because he brings in no offense from the blue line. I remember a few people on HF ragging on Smid for not putting up 40 points while playing 1st pairing minutes.
I have seen many goals against where he made mistakes that cost us. That is my measure. As I said, I will watch him closer next year but, he has shown nothing to make me think he is above average thus far.
Save % is a very poor way to measure goaltending performance. The defense in front of the goalie has a SIGNIFICANT impact on that number.
Not really. All SV% measures is how many shots on goal a goalie stops, which as about as individually-focused a measurement as you can get. Now you could argue that defense contributes to how many shots a goalie faces, but here Khabibulin faced a slightly lower than average volume of shots and still came out looking like crap.
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Ever wonder why Grant Fuhr won a Vezina with a save % in the middle of the pack?
No, it's obvious why he won: he played 75 games and led the league in wins (40) and shut outs as a result. His stats in '88 were almost identical to his stats in '87.
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The Oil was all out offense, he had breakaways and many odd-man rushes to face. He had no chance to compete with Roy's save % on a Montreal team that was all defense.
Fuhr was the better goalie in the late 80s and no statistic will prove it. Watching him play did.
Uh huh. Sure. Funny how Grant Fuhr always had similar stats to his back ups who, presumably, would have had to face just as many breakaways and odd man rushes as he did. Funny how Fuhr never played as well elsewhere as he did when he was behind the best team of all time.
Not really. All SV% measures is how many shots on goal a goalie stops, which as about as individually-focused a measurement as you can get. Now you could argue that defense contributes to how many shots a goalie faces, but here Khabibulin faced a slightly lower than average volume of shots and still came out looking like crap.
No, it's obvious why he won: he played 75 games and led the league in wins (40) and shut outs as a result. His stats in '88 were almost identical to his stats in '87.
Uh huh. Sure. Funny how Grant Fuhr always had similar stats to his back ups who, presumably, would have had to face just as many breakaways and odd man rushes as he did. Funny how Fuhr never played as well elsewhere as he did when he was behind the best team of all time.
So, you are basically saying that you rely on skewed stats to make your case and you don't watch how the goaltenders perform.
We will have to disagree. There are no goaltender stats that tell you the true story. The team in front of the goaltender always skews the numbers. You have to watch them play.
So, you are basically saying that you rely on skewed stats to make your case and you don't watch how the goaltenders perform.
Where did I say that? Khabi was bad by the numbers and by the eye.
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We will have to disagree. There are no goaltender stats that tell you the true story. The team in front of the goaltender always skews the numbers. You have to watch them play.
So if the team skews the numbers so much, why are Dubnyk's results on the same team so much better? If he's the worse goalie playing on the same team, his numbers should be much worse.
Hemsky is the winner in this. The guy was 14th in ppg for all wingers since the lockout before this season, ahead of guys like Nash, yet some fans think we should get rid of him. Hemsky is a star player, and we are lucky to have a player of his caliber. Even his injury woes have become exaggerated. Besides the 2 shoulder injury shortened year he missed just over 10 games per year, which is the league average. There is no doubt injuries are an issue, but this season for example he never suffered a new injury. 2 games for a cold/sinus issue, and the rest to continue rehabing his shoulder. We got Hemsky on a discount at 5 per, and next season a lot of Oiler fans will be happy we did i'm thinking.
Gagner, he's 22. He's not the problem and he keeps improving in the areas we want him too. Why do we need to give up on guys so fast?
I know Horcoff will piss people off, but he went from being this teams number 1 offenseive center to the teams number 1 defensive center. He's done a good job of sheltering the kids at EVStrength, where he is far from the problem. On the PK he's been huge, and was even good in his PP role (albeit i wouldn't play him so much there). Excellent leader in that he shows up in shape and gives it his all, too bad being overpaid by a couple million makes people hate on him irrationally IMO.
I have seen many goals against where he made mistakes that cost us. That is my measure. As I said, I will watch him closer next year but, he has shown nothing to make me think he is above average thus far.
That's the thing though, I don't know if you watch any other games other than Oilers games, but shutdown defensemen ALWAYS get scored on (they play against the best). It's no different with Smid. The best of them can and will make mistakes. All you can ask for is that he does not bleed GA (which he clearly didn't). Just remember, we have seen the kids poop on Keith/Seabrook and Suter/Weber (arguably the top two duos in the league) multiple times this season because of their "mistakes".
I hate using +/- as evidence, but I think it's significant when talking about Smid, who was +4 on a crappy team playing as the #1 shutdown dman. I'm also not a fan of advanced stats, but I'm sure those numbers look nice as well for a shutdown dman. (don't have those numbers handy). haha.
I guess we are on different sides on Smid. When I watch him play, I see a warrior on the backend. I'm not saying he's a superstar or anything, but calling him average is selling him short. He has really come into his own this past season and I hope he further improves his consistency. I hope he can change your mind next season. Like i said, it would be ideal if he was on the second pairing LD. 21 mins. 15-20 points 190bs/190hits.
Easily Hemsky IMO. Dude still has 70+ point potential....and people still slot him into a 3rd line role.
We've been talking about his potential for a decade. He is what he is. A second liner on most teams but he wont be for long on this team with Eberle(who's clearly better), and Yakupov(who has the potential to be vastly superior)
I'm going with Dubnyk. .914SV% and wins vs. PIT, PHI, FLA, DET, LA, NSH, CHI, SJS, and most importantly CGY is pretty good despite the flak he gets
+1...
most have penciled him in on our bottom pair (Whitney, Justin, Smid, Petry being top 4). He is a solid Dman and prove that he is no less then any Oiler Dman.
Theo Peckham was brutal last season, but he shouldn't be written off as many have done with him. I'd say Alex Plante is also much closer to making this team than most people realise. Finally, I'd argue that Sam Gagner will break out this season quieting his detractors.
when you finish dead last the past few years or close to it - and you already know 18-20 year olds are better than your vets - its hard to say anyone is "underrated".
Smid came on last year in a big way where he finally turned a corner on ice asserting himself to his potential. Jones is a solid pick. i dont think people underrate him, though. he's a really solid blue collar player with some scoring touch. that was known about him since college and NSH.
the rest are all wax/wane type characters and pretty WYSIWYG
if we got a really solid year out of Eric Belanger next season, like he's capable of - with everyone else playing up to par - that could be a real interesting shot in the arm on the bottom 6.
So, you are basically saying that you rely on skewed stats to make your case and you don't watch how the goaltenders perform.
We will have to disagree. There are no goaltender stats that tell you the true story. The team in front of the goaltender always skews the numbers. You have to watch them play.
So the 29th team in the league is a benefit to a goaltender? I don't care much for GAA% because some goaltenders face 40 shots a game and some face 20. Sv% is the most accurate stat to evaluate a goaltender
Smid is probably underrated by non-Oiler fans. It's completely understandable considering he's a shutdown dman that provides almost no offence. As good as he is he might actually be overrated by Oilers fans.
you're right. It's hard to get an appreciation for the style of play someone like Smid has if you don't get to watch the player all the time. Smid doesn't do any of the things that are normally shown on the highlights. I guess he'll just have to wait until the reputation he continues to develop with opposing players finally filters out to media and other teams fans. to be fair, until this past year he hadn't developed enough and played well enough to be deserving of a higher level of attention around the league.
We've been talking about his potential for a decade. He is what he is. A second liner on most teams but he wont be for long on this team with Eberle(who's clearly better), and Yakupov(who has the potential to be vastly superior)
I'm going with Dubnyk. .914SV% and wins vs. PIT, PHI, FLA, DET, LA, NSH, CHI, SJS, and most importantly CGY is pretty good despite the flak he gets
agreed.
I think hemsky is rated right where he should be on HF boards, and is just overrated by a lot of Oiler fans.
gott alove guys like eskimo44 "but this season for example he never suffered a new injury" - yeah, that's a selling point. lol
also, I am a Horcoff fan, but I don't understand how anyone can think he could be the most underrated Oiler. I think opinion on this site is pretty accurate to what Horcoff brings to the table.
So the 29th team in the league is a benefit to a goaltender? I don't care much for GAA% because some goaltenders face 40 shots a game and some face 20. Sv% is the most accurate stat to evaluate a goaltender
sv% stat does not account for quality of shots against. A goalie facing a higher proportion of high quality shots will see his sv% impacted negatively. Obviously, the quality of your defence and their ability to limit shots from quality shooting areas has a direct correlation on sv% thus evaluating goaltender performance by doing a strict comparison of this statistic where the goaltenders played on different teams is a flawed study.
A more objective way to compare would be to study sv% on scoring chances in conjunction with overall sv%.
Hemsky is the winner in this. The guy was 14th in ppg for all wingers since the lockout before this season, ahead of guys like Nash, yet some fans think we should get rid of him. Hemsky is a star player, and we are lucky to have a player of his caliber. Even his injury woes have become exaggerated. Besides the 2 shoulder injury shortened year he missed just over 10 games per year, which is the league average. There is no doubt injuries are an issue, but this season for example he never suffered a new injury. 2 games for a cold/sinus issue, and the rest to continue rehabing his shoulder. We got Hemsky on a discount at 5 per, and next season a lot of Oiler fans will be happy we did i'm thinking.
Gagner, he's 22. He's not the problem and he keeps improving in the areas we want him too. Why do we need to give up on guys so fast?
I know Horcoff will piss people off, but he went from being this teams number 1 offenseive center to the teams number 1 defensive center. He's done a good job of sheltering the kids at EVStrength, where he is far from the problem. On the PK he's been huge, and was even good in his PP role (albeit i wouldn't play him so much there). Excellent leader in that he shows up in shape and gives it his all, too bad being overpaid by a couple million makes people hate on him irrationally IMO.
Hemsky is the most overrated Oiler.
Khabi was overrated and that is why Tambo was suckered into giving him a 4 year deal.
Gagner was overrated because of his rookie season.
Honestly, I'd wager that for any roster Oiler, maybe 2% at most of HF posters underrate him.
This team is 29th for a very good reason.
It's the equivalent of standing up after a nice bowel movement, turning around, looking in the bowl, and telling your deposit that it's worse than ****.
