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Oilers re-sign Sam Gagner (1yr/$3.2M)

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Old
07-20-2012, 01:52 PM
  #176
Ladra
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I'm not a big fan of Gagner, and there are players that I would wan't on the team before him. But this is a cap world, and Sam is still a good player. And I do believe that he will be better. So I'm a bit dissapointed that they didn't sign him long term, (5/6 years) at a low cap hit (3.4-3.6) without a NTC/NMC. Since alot of our wingers will get alot of money, and high cap hit. Not every position can be filled with the best player in the game. I saw sam as somewhat an ideal 2nd line C that was good enough to play with the skilled fw but without having to high cap hit to cripple other positions.

With a deal like that, even if we needed to get bigger, Sam would still carry alot of trade value, and if he totaly went bust (even if I doubt that) he could be burried in the minors. So I'm a bit dissapointed.

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07-20-2012, 01:53 PM
  #177
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We are assuming that under the new cba he will still be a rfa

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07-20-2012, 01:53 PM
  #178
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Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
I must sound like Gagner or Torres agent sometimes.
I'm on team Gagner as well. In this case it was more of I'm Tambellinis Pres. Of P.R.

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07-20-2012, 01:57 PM
  #179
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Originally Posted by jumptheshark View Post
We are assuming that under the new cba he will still be a rfa
That's a fairly safe assumption. I don't see players becoming UFA's younger considering that is one of the key things the NHL is fighting to change in their favour.

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07-20-2012, 01:59 PM
  #180
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ladra View Post
I'm not a big fan of Gagner, and there are players that I would wan't on the team before him. But this is a cap world, and Sam is still a good player. And I do believe that he will be better. So I'm a bit dissapointed that they didn't sign him long term, (5/6 years) at a low cap hit (3.4-3.6) without a NTC/NMC. Since alot of our wingers will get alot of money, and high cap hit. Not every position can be filled with the best player in the game. I saw sam as somewhat an ideal 2nd line C that was good enough to play with the skilled fw but without having to high cap hit to cripple other positions.

With a deal like that, even if we needed to get bigger, Sam would still carry alot of trade value, and if he totaly went bust (even if I doubt that) he could be burried in the minors. So I'm a bit dissapointed.
A deal like that opens the door for growth unless you're a complete pessimist only expecting the worst. This is getting your money in with the best hand and it's not a race. You're like 70/30 here. It's a great gamble. If we need together bigger next year, hell still be an RFA having played on a tam with the best supporting cast since he was drfafted. This likely leading to higher point production which we saw glimpses of last year. My bet is his stock grows and we have the option of long term or dealing him with a higher return. There is always the downside as you point out, but less likely. After supporting cast and growth in development phase through age and maturity, I say his value goes up. Then again I've been wrong before....like one percent of the time.

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07-20-2012, 02:03 PM
  #181
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Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
Playing selected games against mostly the easier opposition and mostly in the Western Confidence.

If Dubs is even playing in the Eastern conference his save % and GAA looks appreciably worse.

Most of the goalies that faired well this year were WC. One could argue better working conditions here in WC for goalies..

ps If you're going to quote a players record don't engage in NHL's current version of fiction. Its more accurate to include all wins and losses. Otherwise its a distorted view.
You don't say???? Of course Dubnyk played most of his games in the Western conference. The Oilers are in the Western conference and thats how the scheduling is done. As per weaker opposition; I didn't think the Oilers played a majority of their games vs. CBJ. Otherwise 28 other teams were stronger than the Oilers.

FLA -W .963*
WIN -W .906
PHI - W 1.00*
TOR - L .833
NYI - L .862
CAR - L .848
BOS - L .786*
PIT - W .971*

Looks like Dubnyk actually plays better against stronger Eastern conference teams

14/30 of the top SV% of goalies that played 41 games or more are in the Eastern Conference?


Last edited by Homesick: 07-20-2012 at 02:11 PM. Reason: *playoff teams
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07-20-2012, 02:09 PM
  #182
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Actually the Penner deal strengthens my argument. They were able to get a pretty solid deal for Penner right before he proceeded to struggle the next 1+ seasons outside of a solid playoff run.

I understand your concern of management not maximizing the value of their trade assets. I suppose you can point to the Souray situation as minimizing the value of an asset but that was a special situation because he went public with his tirade thus destroying his trade value.

I just don't see this deal as a problem. Gagner hasn't done enough to earn a lucrative long term deal especially on a team that has better verions of him littered all over the top 6 so he gets a year to prove his worth whether it be as an Oiler long term or as a valuable trade asset.
RNH is the only player in the entire organization thats a better centre than Gagner(even potential wise).
I'm OK with this deal but wouldnt be if it was a two year deal. No excuses for Gagner this season. He's like Hemsky....we just keep waiting for him to break out every season

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07-20-2012, 02:11 PM
  #183
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grod View Post
A deal like that opens the door for growth unless you're a complete pessimist only expecting the worst. This is getting your money in with the best hand and it's not a race. You're like 70/30 here. It's a great gamble. If we need together bigger next year, hell still be an RFA having played on a tam with the best supporting cast since he was drfafted. This likely leading to higher point production which we saw glimpses of last year. My bet is his stock grows and we have the option of long term or dealing him with a higher return. There is always the downside as you point out, but less likely. After supporting cast and growth in development phase through age and maturity, I say his value goes up. Then again I've been wrong before....like one percent of the time.
This is also a possibillity. But on the other hand, if he improves with the supporting cast, it will also be more expensive to keep him and would have given us more bang for the buck and made it possible to distribute more cap to a different position. But what is done is done and hopefully it will turn out the best.

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07-20-2012, 02:11 PM
  #184
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Homesick View Post
You don't say???? Of course Dubnyk played most of his games in the Western conference. The Oilers are in the Western conference and thats how the scheduling is done. As per weaker opposition; I didn't think the Oilers played a majority of their games vs. CBJ. Otherwise 28 other teams were stronger than the Oilers.

FLA -W .963
WIN -W .906
PHI - W 1.00
TOR - L .833
NYI - L .862
CAR - L .848
BOS - L .786
PIT - W .971

Looks like Dubnyk actually plays better against stronger Eastern conference teams

14/30 of the top SV% of goalies that played 41 games or more are in the Eastern Conference?
Not sure you really followed what I'm stating. For instance that Dubnyk simply on the basis of being a WC team has a better GAA and save % than if he was playing for an EC team. Do you dispute that? GF/GA were considerably higher among EC, than WC, teams.

Next, that many of Dubs games were hand selected for instance ALL 4 games against the Oilers punching bag, the Columbus Blue Jackets.
If the Oilers had games against the Kokodo Bunnies that would count as NHL stats they'd play Dubs in those as well.

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07-20-2012, 02:17 PM
  #185
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Originally Posted by CupofOil View Post
Every good team does have a better 2 way version of Gagner at #2C, that's kind of the point. Sure, it's fine having Gagner on the team now since the team is still in the infantry phase and they don't have a viable replacement but as the team improves and the games get tougher, they will in all likelihood ....unless Gagner somehow shows something different than we have been seeing over the last 5 years..... need to get stronger down the middle.
And other good teams don't have the level of talent we (hopefully) have in our top 6. Not every team has to be built exactly the same way.
We will need someone that can play with the "big 4" but not earn the kind of money they probably will. Gagner could be just that.

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07-20-2012, 02:19 PM
  #186
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Not sure you really followed what I'm stating. For instance that Dubnyk simply on the basis of being a WC team has a better GAA and save % than if he was playing for an EC team. Do you dispute that? GF/GA were considerably higher among EC, than WC, teams.

Next, that many of Dubs games were hand selected for instance ALL 4 games against the Oilers punching bag, the Columbus Blue Jackets.
If the Oilers had games against the Kokodo Bunnies that would count as NHL stats they'd play Dubs in those as well.
If the Oilers were trying to insulate Dubnyk and give him "gimmies" why would they also start him against the Bruins, Penguins, Flyers, Hurricanes, etc...

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07-20-2012, 02:20 PM
  #187
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Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
Not sure you really followed what I'm stating. For instance that Dubnyk simply on the basis of being a WC team has a better GAA and save % than if he was playing for an EC team. Do you dispute that?

Next that many of Dubs games were hand selected for instance ALL 4 games against the Oilers punching bag, the Columbus Blue Jackets.
If the Oilers had games against the Kokodo Bunnies that would count as NHL stats they'd play Dubs in those as well.
No I don't follow you. Does the western conference get a special preference like a handicap vs the East? or is our defense that much better than the teams in the east?
You give 4 games against the CBJ's and I give you 4 games vs. the 2,3,4, and 5th seeds in the Eastern Conference. Also do wins against NAS, DET, LA, CHI, SJS, CGY not count? or are they also in the same conference as the Kokodo Bunnies?

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07-20-2012, 02:37 PM
  #188
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Hello everyone! Welcome to the thread about Sam Gagner's contract!!!!

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07-20-2012, 03:05 PM
  #189
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This deal is the next best thing to trading him so I will take it.

Thankfully they didnt entertain some 5yr/25mill contracts that were being thrown around here at the end of last year.

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07-20-2012, 03:20 PM
  #190
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Homesick View Post
You don't say???? Of course Dubnyk played most of his games in the Western conference. The Oilers are in the Western conference and thats how the scheduling is done. As per weaker opposition; I didn't think the Oilers played a majority of their games vs. CBJ. Otherwise 28 other teams were stronger than the Oilers.

FLA -W .963*
WIN -W .906
PHI - W 1.00*
TOR - L .833
NYI - L .862
CAR - L .848
BOS - L .786*
PIT - W .971*

Looks like Dubnyk actually plays better against stronger Eastern conference teams

14/30 of the top SV% of goalies that played 41 games or more are in the Eastern Conference?
isn't this the Gagner signing thread? DD is way off topic here.

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07-20-2012, 03:44 PM
  #191
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isn't this the Gagner signing thread? DD is way off topic here.
I apologize. It was just a series of posts(that got carried away) responding to a statement that Dubnyk gets a contract on a silver platter for doing nothing in cherry picked games vs. Gagner working his tail off for 5 years and being disrespected by almost getting to arbitration and only a one year deal.

I hope Gagner finally realizes his potential this year with some very quality linemates. A slight improvement in face-offs to get over 50% would shut a lot of people up as well

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07-20-2012, 03:58 PM
  #192
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This deal is the next best thing to trading him so I will take it.

Thankfully they didnt entertain some 5yr/25mill contracts that were being thrown around here at the end of last year.
Do you really want Horcoff centering the 2nd line?...

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07-20-2012, 04:20 PM
  #193
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No I don't follow you. Does the western conference get a special preference like a handicap vs the East? or is our defense that much better than the teams in the east?
You give 4 games against the CBJ's and I give you 4 games vs. the 2,3,4, and 5th seeds in the Eastern Conference. Also do wins against NAS, DET, LA, CHI, SJS, CGY not count? or are they also in the same conference as the Kokodo Bunnies?
The Eastern conference features higher scoring games. Simple as that. Which has a huge bearing on goalie stat evaluation. For goalies right now its better to be playing in the WC as far as stats are concerned. Like for instance the 20th best stat you quoted.

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07-20-2012, 05:36 PM
  #194
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The Eastern conference features higher scoring games. Simple as that. Which has a huge bearing on goalie stat evaluation. For goalies right now its better to be playing in the WC as far as stats are concerned. Like for instance the 20th best stat you quoted.
Teams don't just play against teams exclusively in their own conference of course.

As an example here's the stats for the Oilers opponents vs the Rangers opponents through all 82 games they played last year:

Oilers opponents in all 82 games scored on average 2.674 goals per game and let in 2.668 goals per game against.

Rangers opponents in all 82 games scored on average 2.808 goals per game and let in 2.820 goals per game.

That's a difference of just under 11 goals worth of offense and about 12.5 goals worth of defense over the course of an 82 game schedule. Significant but not Earth shattering.

If Gagner played in the East he could be expected to score maybe 2 more points per year.

A goalie playing in the West could be expected to let in maybe 5% fewer goals over the course of a year than a goalie in the East.

So basically if an Oiler goalie is average then they should be letting in about 2.67 goals per 60 minutes of playing time because that's the average level of offense they were facing all year long.

Dubnyk had a GAA of 2.67 and Khabi had a GAA of 2.65... pretty much right in line with average expectations considering the level of offensive opponents they were facing all year.

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07-20-2012, 05:45 PM
  #195
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Do you really want Horcoff centering the 2nd line?...
I would without a doubt accept Horcoff over Gagner.

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07-20-2012, 05:45 PM
  #196
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Do you really want Horcoff centering the 2nd line?...
Is that the only two options?

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07-20-2012, 05:46 PM
  #197
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Is that the only two options?
You could also have Belanger on the 2nd line.

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07-20-2012, 05:49 PM
  #198
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You could also have Belanger on the 2nd line.
Or maybe Hall, or Eberle, or Paajarvi?

Or we trade for/sign someone?

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07-20-2012, 05:51 PM
  #199
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Or maybe Hall, or Eberle, or Paajarvi?

Or we trade for/sign someone?
Pretty much,anything is better than having Gagner as our 2nd line centerman.

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07-20-2012, 06:07 PM
  #200
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I would without a doubt accept Horcoff over Gagner.
Why? Gagner was much better than Horcoff in the 2nd line role last season. That's why Horcoff was finally forced down into the bottom 6(although he still got every chance to do nothing with the 3min of 1st unit PP time he got per game)

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