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Rick Nash+S. Delisle+cond. 3rd to NYR for Dubinsky+Anisimov+Erixon+2013 1st (Part II)

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07-24-2012, 10:55 AM
  #401
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Originally Posted by GWOW View Post
So what does have bearing? Nash's statistical decline in each of the last three years? Oh, because he's Rangers property now, that never happened right?
Rick Nash's "statistical decline" isn't dramatic. And it isn't a 3 year trend, it's a one year trend. Aside from 2 seasons of relative overproduction (05-06, when everyone's numbers were up, and 08-09, when he was playing on a decent team for once), the years of 67 and 66 points were pretty average for him. Last year's numbers were low, but just like the overproductive years, there is a rational explanation for why. There's no reason why he can't bounce back to 65-70 points like he typically scores.

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07-24-2012, 10:58 AM
  #402
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he can play both sides, correct?

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07-24-2012, 11:00 AM
  #403
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Originally Posted by GWOW View Post
Did I say I was against the trade that happened?

No.

I said that fans shouldnt be surprised if Nash doesnt score 40 "in his sleep" like Dreger said, and that his presence on a winning team with better linemates doesn't equate to automatic success.

Richards had his worst statisitcal season in 10 years. What a surprise -- it was his first year on the Rangers.
Other than finding some reason to whine about this trade, I honestly dont see your point.

Richards had his worst statistical season in 10 years? Yea, but the Rangers had their best season in 17 years.

The Rangers went out and filled a VERY big hole yesterday. We should be happy about that. Even if Nash scores 30 goals and is the main focal point of opposing defenses, thats still good for the team looking to take the next step.

If he scores 20 goals and completely flops, then break out these tirades. But the deck is heavily stacked against you when it comes to the likelihood of that happening. And, again, past years have nothing to do with it.

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07-24-2012, 11:05 AM
  #404
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Originally Posted by Levitate View Post
Well now you're changing the topic somewhat. I think it's perfectly legitimate to talk about Nash's declining totals and his future with the Rangers as an individual topic, but there just aren't any conclusions to be drawn from things that happened decades ago in relation to this deal.

If you just wanted to complain about old deals, that's fine. It's just that they're in no way relevant to this deal.
So playing in a pressure-cooker like NYC and not living up to expectations -- a hallmark of decades worth of regimes and failed scorers -- has no relevance?

Why? What has Nash done to make me believe he will come here and be a star? Playing with Richards?

I say the past most certainly has relevance. I say Rangers fans and our one Cup in 70-plus years have every right to be wary.

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07-24-2012, 11:06 AM
  #405
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Originally Posted by Bleed Ranger Blue View Post
Richards had his worst statistical season in 10 years? Yea, but the Rangers had their best season in 17 years.
This gets overlooked too much. It doesn't matter how many points a player scores. It matters how many games the team wins. In 93-94, we didn't have a single 90 point man in a league with 21 of them. Did it really matter?

Look, I'm not a fan of this trade either. But it isn't because of anything with Rick Nash or his numbers. I'm skeptical of how much he will really help us win games. I'm not making any predictions, but I'm just skeptical.

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07-24-2012, 11:06 AM
  #406
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When top scoring talent leads the way, that is when your team comes together! We are seeing that now in the NYR. Increase in offense takes the burden off your defense, and your goalie. It also allows younger forwards to play within their level of experience, so that they can flourish.

I'm a very happy ranger fan right now, and from the sound of it, Sather is still looking to improve the team.

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07-24-2012, 11:07 AM
  #407
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GWOW View Post
So playing in a pressure-cooker like NYC and not living up to expectations -- a hallmark of decades worth of regimes and failed scorers -- has no relevance?

Why? What has Nash done to make me believe he will come here and be a star? Playing with Richards?

I say the past most certainly has relevance. I say Rangers fans and our one Cup in 70-plus years have every right to be wary.
there's a saying...

for every child that is born... there is a funeral

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07-24-2012, 11:09 AM
  #408
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GWOW View Post
So playing in a pressure-cooker like NYC and not living up to expectations -- a hallmark of decades worth of regimes and failed scorers -- has no relevance?

Why? What has Nash done to make me believe he will come here and be a star? Playing with Richards?

I say the past most certainly has relevance. I say Rangers fans and our one Cup in 70-plus years have every right to be wary.
Are you forgetting about Art Somers?

In 1930-31 he had only 9 points in 33 games with Chicago. Next year, he comes here and puts up 26 points in 48 games.

Evidence.

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07-24-2012, 11:12 AM
  #409
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tawnos View Post
Rick Nash's "statistical decline" isn't dramatic. And it isn't a 3 year trend, it's a one year trend. Aside from 2 seasons of relative overproduction (05-06, when everyone's numbers were up, and 08-09, when he was playing on a decent team for once), the years of 67 and 66 points were pretty average for him. Last year's numbers were low, but just like the overproductive years, there is a rational explanation for why. There's no reason why he can't bounce back to 65-70 points like he typically scores.
2004-2009

GPG
0.51
0.57
0.36
0.48
0.51

SPCT
15.2
18.2
11.8
11.6
15.2

2010-2012

GPG
0.43
0.43
0.37

SPCT
13.0
10.5
9.8

There are three telling stats for a goal scorer -- shots, goals and shooting pct.

from 2009-2012, Nash's shot totals went:

263
254
305
306


In the last three years, shots have gone up or way up, and shooting pct has gone down or way down.


That is a decline and a sharp one.

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07-24-2012, 11:14 AM
  #410
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bleed Ranger Blue View Post
Other than finding some reason to whine about this trade, I honestly dont see your point.

Richards had his worst statistical season in 10 years? Yea, but the Rangers had their best season in 17 years.

The Rangers went out and filled a VERY big hole yesterday. We should be happy about that. Even if Nash scores 30 goals and is the main focal point of opposing defenses, thats still good for the team looking to take the next step.

If he scores 20 goals and completely flops, then break out these tirades. But the deck is heavily stacked against you when it comes to the likelihood of that happening. And, again, past years have nothing to do with it.

Who's whining about the trade?

I make the trade 100 times out of 100.

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07-24-2012, 11:14 AM
  #411
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GWOW View Post
2004-2009

GPG
0.51
0.57
0.36
0.48
0.51

SPCT
15.2
18.2
11.8
11.6
15.2

2010-2012

GPG
0.43
0.43
0.37

SPCT
13.0
10.5
9.8

There are three telling stats for a goal scorer -- shots, goals and shooting pct.

from 2009-2012, Nash's shot totals went:

263
254
305
306


In the last three years, shots have gone up or way up, and shooting pct has gone down or way down.


That is a decline and a sharp one.
Shooting percentage has been shown to largely regress to the mean, so those are some promising numbers.

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Old
07-24-2012, 11:16 AM
  #412
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Originally Posted by Tawnos View Post
This gets overlooked too much. It doesn't matter how many points a player scores. It matters how many games the team wins. In 93-94, we didn't have a single 90 point man in a league with 21 of them. Did it really matter?

Look, I'm not a fan of this trade either. But it isn't because of anything with Rick Nash or his numbers. I'm skeptical of how much he will really help us win games. I'm not making any predictions, but I'm just skeptical.
I thought I conveyed that sentiment in my original post.

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07-24-2012, 11:19 AM
  #413
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i think nash is gonna come out like a man possessed motivated by finally being out of columbus...he was scoring 30 goals there just basically going thru the motions on a team with no hope. to suddenly be on a legit contender playing with other top players he will be super-motivated imo

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Old
07-24-2012, 11:19 AM
  #414
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And the point I was making about Richards was simple -- after the signing, most of us predicted that Richards would play with Gaborik for most of, if not all of the season, and if Gaborik can score 40 with a center like EC, then he should score 45-50 with Richards, while Richards himself would score 80-90 points.

Somehow, reminding fans to temper statistical expectations became "You Hate the trade!!! blah blah blah"

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07-24-2012, 11:21 AM
  #415
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Originally Posted by -31- View Post
Shooting percentage has been shown to largely regress to the mean, so those are some promising numbers.
Was going to reply this exactly. Thats actually how you interpret stats like those.

Then theres the whole other issue about how Derek friggin Brassard isnt going to be putting you in many ideal scoring positions.

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07-24-2012, 11:25 AM
  #416
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on nash playing LW or RW...nash, kreider and gabby can all play both wings so it gives us some flexibility but the big question that needs to be answered is do you go with the dominate #1 line after gabby returns and play nash, richards and gaborik together? or do you go for balance and put one of nash or gaborik with stepan on the 2nd line (my guess would be gabby since him and stepan played well together last year).

but its really semantics...anyway you slice it up after gabby is back our top 6 should look great on paper.

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Old
07-24-2012, 11:26 AM
  #417
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Originally Posted by GWOW View Post
In the last three years, shots have gone up or way up, and shooting pct has gone down or way down.


That is a decline and a sharp one.
His goal scoring doesn't matter to me as much as how many points he puts up. Last season was down. The two previous seasons were his 3rd and 4th best of his career in terms of points per game. All that indicates is that his game may have evolved over time from being pure goal scorer to better all around offensive threat. If you want to say his goal scoring has declined... maybe I'll agree with you. But that's not what matters.

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07-24-2012, 11:28 AM
  #418
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i can't say those shooting% stats are meaningless but there are other factors to consider like how many of those shots were him just throwing the puck at the net cause he had zero help vs actual quality shots?

if he plays with gaborik and richards he'll likely see a big decrease in shots but a big increase in the quality of those shots/chances...

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07-24-2012, 11:30 AM
  #419
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CM PUNK View Post
on nash playing LW or RW...nash, kreider and gabby can all play both wings so it gives us some flexibility but the big question that needs to be answered is do you go with the dominate #1 line after gabby returns and play nash, richards and gaborik together? or do you go for balance and put one of nash or gaborik with stepan on the 2nd line (my guess would be gabby since him and stepan played well together last year).

but its really semantics...anyway you slice it up after gabby is back our top 6 should look great on paper.
We could see something similar to what Pittsburgh does. Most of the time, Malkin and Crosby play on different lines. When Bylsma feels the team needs a boost or needs a push because they're losing, he'll put them both out together.

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07-24-2012, 11:37 AM
  #420
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Nash's center in 2009 was Manny Malhotra.

Nash's center in 2004 was actually the great trifecta of Andrew Cassels, Malhotra and Todd "Gretzky" Marchant

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07-24-2012, 11:37 AM
  #421
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A determined, invigorated Nash is a very scary player. I really don't think most people on this board realize just how good he can be. If he ends up with Stepan as our "2nd line," I think there's a real shot he could outscore Gaborik over a full season. He's that good.

The one thing I love about this team is how they're grooming the next generation of Rangers by bringing in great professionals. Beuke to mentor McIlrath. Richards to mentor Stepan and Del Zotto. Redden mentoring McDonagh in Hartford, and now he's learning from Danny G. Now we have Nash to mentor Kreider. Really exciting time to be a fan of this club.

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07-24-2012, 11:40 AM
  #422
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Originally Posted by Killem Dafoe View Post
I disagree with everything that you said.

Nash will play LW and with Richards and Gabby to start the season. Saying Gaborik and Richards will never play again is just plain dumb man. And I hate downing on people but listen to what you said. Because they didn't have chemistry the first 2 weeks they played together? They didn't even play on the same line until the end of the season where they had pretty good chemistry together.

What I don't get is why our number 1 need is a first line LW and now that we have one everyone wants to put him on the right?
A couple of reasons why I said this:

A)As has been said, Nash is a natural RW. Richards passes WAY better to his right flanker than his left. Nash's style(which is mainly a size/cycling style)compliments Richards more than Gaborik. Gaborik will be injured at the start of season(if there is no lockout), and he will probably be slotted into the second line role coming back into the lineup.

B)You divide up your scoring threats. That makes it extremely hard for the opposing team to stack its defensive pairing matches. You are pretty much guaranteeing that one of Nash or Gaborik are going to be dealing with a lesser defensive pairing all through the game. Even worse, a coach may have to double shift his top defensive unit.

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07-24-2012, 11:41 AM
  #423
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Originally Posted by GWOW View Post
So playing in a pressure-cooker like NYC and not living up to expectations -- a hallmark of decades worth of regimes and failed scorers -- has no relevance?

Why? What has Nash done to make me believe he will come here and be a star? Playing with Richards?

I say the past most certainly has relevance. I say Rangers fans and our one Cup in 70-plus years have every right to be wary.
I think the whole 'pressure cooker' thing is overstated. NY isn't Toronto, or Montreal, or hell even Philly, when it comes to hockey players being under the microscope.

I'm also not expecting Nash to be a star, exactly. It's a gamble move to some extent because he does immediately become the Rangers second best goal scoring threat (behind Gaborik) but he isn't likely to be a star, 80+ point player, and he carries a hefty cap hit.

But, with everyone healthy, he could be a difference maker to the overall team. The Rangers don't need him to be a 40 goal scoring team leader like Columbus needed him to be. They need him to be a viable second scoring threat to increase the Rangers scoring depth and take pressure off a guy like Gaborik. Even with Dubinsky and Anisimov leaving, adding Nash and getting a healthy Gaborik back increases the Rangers scoring depth IMO. You're going to end up with one of Callahan, Hagelin, or Kreider on the third line and that will help turn it into a more dangerous line than it was last year. And Nash brings that "can score at any moment" factor that a player like Callahan doesn't have, despite scoring similar goal totals last year

That's how I think Nash helps this team win, without needing to be a super star. Again, it's a gamble in terms of the money, but it gives the Rangers a different dimension.

That all said, I am skeptical that at 28 he's going to have a continued breakdown in his scoring ability. While I don't think he's a superstar waiting to happen with the right linemates, I do think the team he played for has had some impact on his numbers in the past couple of years. I think he'll bump up to career average for the next 3-4 years before really starting to tail off.

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07-24-2012, 11:41 AM
  #424
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If anybody here watched Nash beyond the one game at MSG, they would tell you that the opportunites were there. His one-timers and shots off the wing were stopped whereas in previous season he was able to fool goalies. Brassard is actually a very good passer.

The last two seasons with Nash has not been a lack of quality chances. He just didnt bury the puck like he used to.

The stats support my observations.

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07-24-2012, 11:43 AM
  #425
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Clark and Gorton haven't made many mistakes on cutting players loose. Sanguinetti still hasn't made the NHL after 4 pro years. Grachev wasn't anything special in STL. Grachev is not a Hitch type of the player. His SPC is up after this season and who knows where his future will take him. The Rangers didn't want to trade Erixon but they didn't fight to exclude him from the deal like they did with some of the other young players in the organization. The Rangers had a full year to look at Erixon. Maybe they soured on him a little bit. Torts didn't seem heartbroken over losing him.

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