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The case for a 1-year surgical tank for the Habs

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Old
07-26-2012, 04:32 PM
  #101
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Originally Posted by SOLR View Post
Boston just rebuilt 6 years ago, some have a short memory.

And they won the Chara lottery.
Boston didn't "rebuild" like the Habs and Phillie they had one brutal year, other than that they have not been in the bottom 5. They got Hamill at #8 and he played no part in their cup win.

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07-26-2012, 04:35 PM
  #102
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McDonagh was drafted 12th overall. We got him in a year when we missed the playoffs.

Pacioretty was drafted because we dealt top-4 dmen Craig Rivet at the deadline. Had we kept Rivet, we would not have drafted Pacioretty, we would have had the extra 2 points needed to make the playoffs, and thus not had McDonagh either.

We would have lost in the 1st round and drafted ~18th, Ian Cole perhaps, or Logan McMillan, or Angelo Esposito. Can't know for sure.

We'd also have no Gorges.
They still didn't "tank" to miss the playoffs. They tried and failed.

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07-26-2012, 04:40 PM
  #103
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Originally Posted by Carey Price View Post
1st of all none of those teams "tanked". Like us getting Glacheyuk, Carolina getting Staal was a "worst case scenario" season. They didn't pull of an Edmonton/Pittsburgh/Chicago/Phoenix/Columbus and suck 4-5 straight years in the bottom 3-4.
Once more with feeling:

Nobody (that I'm aware of) is suggesting a five-year rebuild for the Habs.

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Originally Posted by Carey Price View Post
You just proved yourself wrong with the LA one, their two best players were non top 5 picks in Kopitar and Quick, with Brown not far behind. Doughty was their only core player drafted top 5, we already have Price and potentially Galchenyuk in house. LA is not comparable to the 5 teams I mentionned earlier.
LA doesn't win anything without Doughty (2nd overall), Richards (5th overall via Brayden Schenn), and Kopitar (11th overall). That is a simple point that should only need to be made once.

Lucky trades matter too of course. If we can get a Jack Johnson equivalent for tablescraps we should go for it.

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Originally Posted by Carey Price View Post
Wether our 4 guys are as good as Detroit's is irrelevant, it still proves we can get great talent later in the draft and add it to guys like Price and Glachenyuk. If you draft well later(see Phillie and Boston) you don't necessarily need top 5 picks to get impact players.
It's very relevant.

It's much easier to get guys like Subban and Desharnais then it is to get Lidstrom and Datsyuk.

Markov is equivalent to Zetterberg. Both were drafted at around the same rank at around the same time.

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07-26-2012, 04:43 PM
  #104
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You are way off.
The surgical tank already happened (last season, in case you didn't notice) and we have already collected many picks for next year's draft (4 picks assured to be in the top60).
Next season the Habs are aiming for the Stanley Cup, nothing less.

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07-26-2012, 04:44 PM
  #105
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Next season the Habs are aiming for the Stanley Cup, nothing less.
Mark his words.

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07-26-2012, 04:48 PM
  #106
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Originally Posted by jmdubois585 View Post
This.





I don't want to bring back bad memories but the only reason why we sucked last year

1) No Markov ( Veteran presence, Leadership & Power Play General)

2) No Gionta ( always flirts with 30 goals when he's healthy and without a doubt a leader on the team. Some may argue that Cole brought the 30 goals and leadership that Gionta had, but imagine if we had both)

3) Couldn't protect leads ( A mix of bad management, unexperienced nhl coaching and an unexperienced defensive core)

4) Carey Price was horrible in shootouts

5) Injuries ( Gomez, Diaz, Weber, Gionta, Desharnais, Moen and White all got injured and some more then once that season)

6) Management was on panic mode (We all know what good moves Gauthier can do when he has total contol, ex. The Wiz, Cole. But this year he did some panic moves trying to save his job, ex. Perry Pearn fired, JM fired, Cammy traded for Bourque during a game, Campoli, Kaberle, mishandling the Markov situation.)

This year we have at least 2 of those reasons aren't relevant anymore and hopefully more. As much as I'd like to have Nathan Mackinnon on my team, I'd rather see my team perform during the playoffs.
I think people underestimate the effect that the new management staff will have on the players.

I believe that the players despised Gauthier and the crappy atmosphere that he created. The players are now surrounded by former heart and soul players which will be conducive to a winning atmosphere.

Anyone who thinks this team is a longshot to make the playoffs is clueless. There is so much parity and this team underachieved badly last season. I would be equally as clueless to state that this team will definitely make the playoffs but I will state that the playoffs are a much more likely outcome than last in the conference again.

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07-26-2012, 04:56 PM
  #107
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Originally Posted by Carey Price View Post
He showed up out of shape last year and had a crap year, if I was betting man I'd say he'll come in to shape much lighter and quicker.
He has never taken care of his body and he is simply getting old. It is unlikely that this old dog will pick up any new tricks.

As for the rest of this thread......I feel for you buddy, you are dealing with some truly clueless posters.

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07-26-2012, 04:56 PM
  #108
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Originally Posted by Estimated_Prophet View Post
I will state that the playoffs are a much more likely outcome than last in the conference again.
Of course.
8 teams make the playoffs, only one team finishes last.
I'd say a lottery finish is equally likely to a playoff finish. There are more ways to make the playoffs, but the Habs maximum likelihood finish is ~13th place.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Estimated_Prophet View Post
some truly clueless posters.
I look forward to bumping your arrogant comments next spring, perhaps even earlier.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Carey Price View Post
They still didn't "tank" to miss the playoffs. They tried and failed.
Gainey actively traded away core roster players for draft picks.
That's more than I'm asking for this year.
Habs will try and faiil in 2012-2013.

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07-26-2012, 05:08 PM
  #109
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Intentional tanking : No and its not going to happen anyway for various reasons.

Firesale near/at the deadline if the Habs are out of it : Absolutely and it would be the logical thing to do.

Thats how i see it

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Old
07-26-2012, 05:11 PM
  #110
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
Of course.
8 teams make the playoffs, only one team finishes last.
I'd say a lottery finish is equally likely to a playoff finish. There are more ways to make the playoffs, but the Habs maximum likelihood finish is ~13th place.



I look forward to bumping your arrogant comments next spring, perhaps even earlier.


Gainey actively traded away core roster players for draft picks.
That's more than I'm asking for this year.
Habs will try and faiil in 2012-2013.

What magic formula did you use to calculate the "maximum finish" lol.

You have exposed yourself as being completely foolish in this thread by saying that the Habs should and will tank. It is a fact among the enlightenend on these boards that any poster who thinks that tanking actually takes place is clueless.

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07-26-2012, 05:11 PM
  #111
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
Of course.
8 teams make the playoffs, only one team finishes last.
I'd say a lottery finish is equally likely to a playoff finish. There are more ways to make the playoffs, but the Habs maximum likelihood finish is ~13th place.



I look forward to bumping your arrogant comments next spring, perhaps even earlier.


Gainey actively traded away core roster players for draft picks.That's more than I'm asking for this year.
Habs will try and faiil in 2012-2013.
Really?

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Old
07-26-2012, 05:12 PM
  #112
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
Of course.
8 teams make the playoffs, only one team finishes last.
I'd say a lottery finish is equally likely to a playoff finish. There are more ways to make the playoffs, but the Habs maximum likelihood finish is ~13th place.



I look forward to bumping your arrogant comments next spring, perhaps even earlier.


Gainey actively traded away core roster players for draft picks.
That's more than I'm asking for this year.
Habs will try and faiil in 2012-2013.
And you failed by making such a horrible thread dedicated to losing. Whoever wants their team to lose has a losing mentality and quite possibly a leafs fan at heart. I seriously thought this tank crap was over with after last yr. I like to watch my team win weather they are contenders or not. Its FUN

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07-26-2012, 05:15 PM
  #113
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I think the problem is "tank" has a different meaning for alot of people. Some people see it as intentional losing.

I dont think the players or coach would ever intentionally lose. Current players dont care about future draft picks and coaches careers depend on winning.

I think some people when saying the habs will tank is that they dont believe the current roster is a playoff team and that they dont want quick fix ufas just to try and squeak into an 7-8-9 scenario. Play the season out and if they arent in a playoff position come trade deadline, trade away players not in the future plans for picks and prospects. If they end up playing better then expected and are in the playoff picture then even better!

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07-26-2012, 05:17 PM
  #114
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i think the habs are a good team that were very unlucky to finish where the did. but i actually reveled in their mediocrity through all of gauthiers idiocy we finally got a prime time prospect and used picks to stock up our system. another draft like that and the habs will be GREAT and not just good for YEARS. Sucking once in a while is a good thing, to reboot the system and making sure you have a steady influx of the best young prospects to build around. You don't build consistent cup contenders via ufa's...you build them by constantly having good young players playing in their primes.
most intelligent comment in this thread.

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Old
07-26-2012, 05:20 PM
  #115
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I'd rather win or lose on the ice, than sit around thinking up ways to lose, just so I can get a better team - on paper!

Teach the pieces we have now to win, instead of the OP's plan of learning to be losers....

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07-26-2012, 05:56 PM
  #116
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Originally Posted by Jmac1160 View Post
And you failed by making such a horrible thread dedicated to losing. Whoever wants their team to lose has a losing mentality and quite possibly a leafs fan at heart. I seriously thought this tank crap was over with after last yr. I like to watch my team win weather they are contenders or not. Its FUN
The thread is dedicated to winning a Stanley Cup. It's not dedicated to losing.
Hint: The point of tanking isn't to tank.

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Originally Posted by Teufelsdreck View Post
Really?
Gainey traded Craig Rivet for Josh Gorges and a 1st rounder back in 2007. It's one of his best moves as GM, and it fits in with the philosophy of the opening post.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Estimated_Prophet View Post
What magic formula did you use to calculate the "maximum finish" lol.
The teams that are comparable to the Habs in terms of roster talent are Winipeg, Long Island, Toronto, and Tampa Bay. With the Habs, that's five teams falling in the positions 15th, 14th, 13th, 12, 11th. If it's random within that sorting we end up 13th.

Cup Contenders:
Philadelphia
New York
Pittsburgh
Washington
Boston

Bubble teams:
Florida
New Jersey
Ottawa
Buffalo
Carolina

Lottery Team Candidates:
Montreal
Toronto
Winnipeg
Tampa Bay
Long Island

Ottawa and Tampa Bay are iffy.

Anyway, you should be honest when assessing roster. Just because it's your favorite team doesn't mean you should assume Subban is better than Doughty.

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07-26-2012, 06:03 PM
  #117
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Boston didn't "rebuild" like the Habs and Phillie they had one brutal year, other than that they have not been in the bottom 5. They got Hamill at #8 and he played no part in their cup win.
Kessel anyone?

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07-26-2012, 06:06 PM
  #118
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5 pages and counting and still no love for my go cheer for the leafs call?


Last edited by LaTenderness: 07-26-2012 at 06:13 PM.
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Old
07-26-2012, 06:07 PM
  #119
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The day the Canadiens stop trying to win games (even if the approach is misguided) is the day I find a new team to cheer for. A high draft pick provides limited consolation after an embarrassing season -- it is not something to strive for.

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07-26-2012, 06:10 PM
  #120
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The day the Canadiens stop trying to win games (even if the approach is misguided) is the day I find a new team to cheer for.
You would come back the minute those high draft picks were making noise in the playoffs.

You would come back before probably.

And you're going to be there this season when Bergevin couldn't pull off something as basic as signing Semin to a 1-year contract. Hint: Bergevin didn't want Semin to come and score 30 goals.

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07-26-2012, 06:20 PM
  #121
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
You would come back the minute those high draft picks were making noise in the playoffs.

You would come back before probably.

And you're going to be there this season when Bergevin couldn't pull off something as basic as signing Semin to a 1-year contract. Hint: Bergevin didn't want Semin to come and score 30 goals.
There's a difference between not making short-term decisions to go for it all and actively trying to lose games. I am convinced that nobody involved with running the team is going to aim for failure and I don't think that will ever change. If it does, I'm out.

Not signing Semin is not a good indication of anything. Maybe Bergevin is working on a trade, maybe he's hoping for Doan, or maybe he's comfortable with our current top-six. All are far, far more likely than he wants a lottery pick next year. I don't understand how anyone can believe that.

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07-26-2012, 06:28 PM
  #122
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There's a difference between not making short-term decisions to go for it all and actively trying to lose games. I am convinced that nobody involved with running the team is going to aim for failure and I don't think that will ever change. If it does, I'm out.

Not signing Semin is not a good indication of anything. Maybe Bergevin is working on a trade, maybe he's hoping for Doan, or maybe he's comfortable with our current top-six. All are far, far more likely than he wants a lottery pick next year. I don't understand how anyone can believe that.
If Bergevin signs Shane Doan or trades Beaulieu+Eller+1st rounder for Bobby Ryan then this thread is obsolete.

I don't think he will.

Going into the season with our current roster and giving it 100% is equivalent to tanking. It's just not a very good team.

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07-26-2012, 06:35 PM
  #123
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One of the most common arguments on these boards is whether the Habs should strive for 8th place by any means necessary or do a proper rebuild/evaluation/tank/transition/development year(s). In this thread I will make the case that 2012-2013 season is an excellent opportunity for a 1-year surgical tank (thus a 2 year tank if you add 2011-2012). I argue that this year is a better year than other years to tank, and do so from several arguments. I accumulate and expand on several arguments that have been presented throughout the boards.

I preface the following by saying that for me there is only one question that matters: How can the Habs build a championship team?

*****

1) Habs are a bad team, and are extremely unlikely to make the playoffs next year.

Last year, the Habs finished 15th in the conference, though some legitimately argue we were really ~12th placed on goals differential and bad luck in the shootouts. However, last year we had Cammmalleri, AK46, and Gill. Cammalleri has been replaced by the inferior Bourque. AK46 has been replaced by Brandon Prust, gving us more physicality but less goal scoring. Gill has been replaced by Bouillon, and is thus a step down. We're a lesser team.

2011-2012 was a year in which we ended 15th in spite of several things going extremely well for the Habs.
- We had the best PK in the league.
- Cole and Pacioretty had career seasons.
- Price was consistent.
- 3 of our 4 division rivals, Buffalo, Ottawa, and Toronto, were very weak. We could get points by beating up on the division.

If you had told the average fan a year ago we'd benefit from these 4 "random" effects, which were not expected at the start of the year, then the average fan would have predicted a top-6 or top-4 conference finish for the Habs. Nobody was counting on a career season from Cole last year. Nobody was expecting the best PK in the league. If you had told fans how weak the division would be, they would have said Montreal (and not Ottawa) would accumulate a better conference standing than it deserved by beating up on the division. However, in spite of these 4 major things going right, we ended 15th. We would have done worse in a more typical year, and thus I don't expect improvement.

Therefore, we are extremely unlikely to make 8th place. It's a remote possibility.

2) Losing now is better than losing 3 years from now.
A losing 2012-2013 season would yield development and draft picks that would complement that of the 2011-2012 season (Galchenyuk and Colberg). We would have a cohort of talented youngsters in about 3 years that would grow up together and wish to win together. You know what's better than Galchenyuk as a 1st line center? Galchenyuk as a 2nd line center behind Nathan McKinnon.

Moreover, 2012-2013 may represent the best Hamilton Bulldogs team since I've heard of the Hamilton Bulldogs. Pateryn, Beaulieu, Tinordi, Holland, Gallagher, Quailer, Bournival, hopefully Leblanc and Palushaj... wow I'm stoked. This team isn't going to win us a cup this year. However, it's very good. It can be the youth corps of a team that wins the cup in 2015. Once you add Galchenyuk, Colberg, and whoever we draft next year, it looks like the veteran core of a team that competes for the cup every year in the period 2015-2020.

3) 2013 is one of the deepest drafts in NHL history.
This fact is well documented. This doesn't necessarily mean we want to draft 4th overall rather than 12th. However, it does mean we should accumulate as many picks as we can in the first two rounds. We already have 4, and the second rounders from Calgary and Nashville (and Montreal's) might be of the highest quality. You know what's better than having a player of Colberg's quality in your system? Having 4 such players.

What the Habs could do would be to give privileged minutes to Gomez, Bourque, and Kaberle. They're not the best players, so padding their stats will come at the expense of the team as a whole. However, if we pad their stats they become tradeable. A lot of clueless fans have written that Kaberle is untradeable, but the inferior Zidlicky warranted a 2nd and 3rd at the deadline this year. I say pad their stats (at a cost to the team) and trade them for top-60 picks at the deadline this year. This gives us better draft picks, and it liberates cap space.

4) 2013 may become one of the best free agents year in history.
This point is less certain than the other points, but it is still of some value and worth being aware of.

The following players may become UFAs: Iginla, Elias, Perry, Getzlaf, Hainsey, Lupul, Morrow, Regehr, Horton, Zajac, Clowe, Scuderi, Filppula.

There's a few of those players I'd like on the Habs. Your list may be different than mine.

If we can unload our cap space this year, we may be in a position to cash in next summer, and the true upsurge will begin. Our youth will be one year older, better, there will no longer be a need to tank as we'll have the best farm system in the NHL, etc.

5) The worst teams of 2012 are improving.
If one scans the worst teams of 2012, one expects the following teams to improve:
- Minnesota has improved enough that I don't expect them to compete for a lottery pick.
- Edmonton is a young team and just picked up Nail Yakupov, whom we can expect to score 45-50 points.
- Carolina played well after their disastrous start, and they picked up the excellent Jordan Staal.
- Toronto is a young team that one would expect to improve. They also traded Luke Schenn for JVR.

Thus, the bottom 10 got stronger. Given that we got worse, this should solidify our position in the bottom 5.

6) Our core is only almost good enough.

The current core of the team is Price, Subban, Plekanec, Pacioretty, Markov, Gorges, Cole, Desharnais. That core is not good enough to win championships. It is inferior to the cores of Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, New York, Los Angeles, and Vancouver -- nobody of sound mind can disagree with that. However, it's not ridiculously far off. Add in Beaulieu, Galchenyuk, and Tinordi, get experience for Eller, Desharnais, and Emelin, rock the 2013 UFA class, and suddenly the core becomes elite.

7) The 8th place model doesn't work.
When I say "8th place model", I don't mean building a world class team like the Kings and then collapsing into 8th place due to bad luck. I mean building a team that has the talent, ability, and overall mediocrity of a bubble team and hoping that "anything can happen in the playoffs". I list two examples of the 8th place model: Columbus and Buffalo.

A good example of the 8th place model are he Columbus Blue Jackets. They made the playoffs a few years ago and were excited. Last year they mortgaged their farm system for Jeff Carter, they signed Wisniewski and Prospal. The result? A total comprehensive collapse. They should have gone for a proper, patient rebuild.

The Buffalo Sabres are the blueprint of the 8th place model. They have a great coach, and are a bubble team every single year. They have a decent core: Ryan Miller, Derek Roy, Jason Pominville, Robin Regehr, Tomas Vanek, Tyler Myers, and now Cody Hodgson and Mikhail Grigorenko, the same quality as the Habs. In other words, they are what the Habs might look like with a great coach and fewer injuries: A bubble team year in and year out. The Buffalo Sabres model outlines the ugly reality of the 8th place strategy: even if you have great coaching and some excellent core players, you're still not competing for the cup. You need several excellent players. And you need depth.

And that's all for now.
nice post dude.have'nt had that good of a laugh in a long time. as if there is a "blueprint" for anything in the nhl.i say this guys a leaf fan for sure.

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07-26-2012, 06:57 PM
  #124
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Here's an exercise. Put the names of the 10 best habs players in a hat. Take out 2. Those will be our major injuries this year. Try and tell me the resulting roster looks like a contender.
So then we draft Nathan Mackinnon and he blows out his knee in his first exhibition game. The next game, Galchenyuk goes down.

Now what?

Your entire premise is reminiscent of some fantasy land where you can "surgically tank" (love that just for the humor value) and everything magically falls into place exactly as planned. In that fantasy land, only established Canadiens players get injured. Every drafted player as a result of a "surgical tank" is bullet proof and will never be injured.

I bet you are very good at playing NHL 12. Can you tank on video games?

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07-26-2012, 07:04 PM
  #125
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Originally Posted by Teufelsdreck View Post
You don't appreciate your self-defeating internal inconsistency. If the 2013 draft is expected to be very rich, then GMs will think hard before trading their high draft choices for veterans. Therefore, I wouldn't expect a second rounder for a Hal Gill type (or for anyone else who doesn't fit into Bergevin's plans). As for firsts, well, the Habs weren't able to pick up any (not even late first rounders) in 2012 and they're less likely to gain any in 2013.
But thats not how it works in fantasy land.

None of the other GMs realize that the upcoming draft will be "extra special". We will surprise them all with our "surgical tank" and we will fool the other GMs into trading their first rounders to us.

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