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2012 Free Agency Thread - Part XXI: Weepy Tears & Angst (A. Kostitsyn Edition)

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07-29-2012, 11:49 AM
  #826
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Originally Posted by mpp9 View Post
If we can get Iggy and he'll resign, Id pay the price for him over overpaying for Doan.
Yah that's not even debatable. Iginla would be a far more productive player here the next 2-3 years. Even though I'd much rather give a similar deal to someone younger like Ryan or Perry, Iginla I'd consider giving that "thru age 39" type deal to at a modest overpayment. Doan it's not even worth considering the amount he wants, even at one year. 1 year and 6 is the absolute worst hit I'd take for that guy. 1 year and 5.5 would be tolerable.

Doan will be lucky to score 25G in any of his remaining years. Iginla could easily still score 35-40G in a healthy year. Iggy has remained a steady 75-80 pt guy. 75 pts is career best territory for Doan and he's dropped about 20 pts from that level in recent seasons. He's the best out there but not an ideal fit by any stretch whereas Iggy would be much closer to an ideal fit at the same age and similar money.


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07-29-2012, 11:55 AM
  #827
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Originally Posted by Til the End of Time View Post
^^^ starting to agree with this line of thinking.

the penguins window to win the cup is NOW. doan would be a big help at least for the next two years, maybe more. and malkin might not even be here two years from now.

i'm trying to figure out if it's better to overpay for doan (24 mill for 4 years) or give up assets for iginla at the deadline. i honestly dont know. kirk you talked about a package for iginla (1st, BB, d-prospect) in the other thread. would you folks rather pay doan the aforementioned contract or give up that package for iginla? id really like to hear opinions on this.

i dont want shero to overpay, obviously. thats been my thought process this entire offseason. but im starting to think there might be a time and a place for it. doan could be that guy.

also i read this post on main board...

its also possible ive been watching for too many cup highlight videos, and its making me pissed off that the pens havent come close to winning since '09. god damn i want another cup.
That's pretty much where I am at. At some point, if you'll only go after the perfect free agent for top dollar OR only look for the no lose trade, then you're not going anywhere when the playoffs come, even with Sid and Geno.

Whether OR not Doan is that point certainly is debatable. On balance (and not without reservation), I think he is.

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07-29-2012, 11:56 AM
  #828
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Originally Posted by Dupree13 View Post
Contrary to popular belief, I don't think the Pens are that well positioned to trade for a winger right now. You look at the Whitney and Goligoski deals and you're talking about 2 guys who had a ton of NHL experience under their belts and were pretty much proven commodities.

People talk about the surplus of young D-men, but the problem is that none of them have significant (or any) NHL experience yet, only Despres even has any pro experience, which makes them questionable commodities. It's not that anybody doubts that guys like Morrow and Pouliot are going to be good, but it's pretty unclear how good. That makes it a dicey proposition to trade for them or for that matter, give them up.

The only guy who could be potential trade bait as of today is Despres. But it'd be hard for the Pens to deal him because they might be depending on him to play a pretty big role this year. So that's less than ideal.
we can trade a package though. We don't always have to trade 1 d-man for two guys coming back. We could be the ones adding. Look at the Nash trade. NYR didn't give anything close to Whitney or Goligoski's value. Sure, Columbus had their hands tied by Nash but even look back to the Hossa deal. The most valuable piece we sent them was Angelo Esposito.

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07-29-2012, 11:59 AM
  #829
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4 years doesn't really bother me and neither does 6-7M for 2 years. It's the combination that is questionable at best. But I think he'd be a great fit here and he'd make us a considerably better team even if he is overpaid.
Just so you know . . . 2 years, 13 or 14M, 3 years, maybe 18M, even 4 years, 20M: I would feel A LOT more comfortable with any of those options.

BUT, if you think he'd be a great fit here AND if the price of having him NOW is a 4 year, 22-24M deal that COULD be an issue in the 2015-2016, then isn't it worth the potential risk THEN to help Sid, Geno, and this team so much NOW and next year and the year after?

As I said, this ties into the Shero debate: The risk averse GM doesn't touch Doan on the deal it will take to get him with a 20 foot pole. The risk manager looks at the pros, looks at the cons (that may or may not materialize), and, IMO, says 'on balance, it's worth the risk'.

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07-29-2012, 12:02 PM
  #830
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I'd do Pouliot+Bennett+TK for Iggy. If they're looking to move Jbo as well and need immediate help in the top 4 D, maybe Martin would interest them.
IF I knew that I could resign Iginla, then I'd also pay that price. IMO, that's precisely the type of package Feaster will be seeking IF the Flames are out of it and IF he thinks Iginla will test free agency.

BTW, I just had another thought on Iginla (it goes for Doan too): If it ever reaches a point where he can't keep up with Sid, it's not as if the Pens don't have an option of sliding Kunitz and Neal up with Sid and then Iginla or Doan down with Geno, who I think is a little better suited to adapt to playing with guys who can't keep up with Sid.

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07-29-2012, 12:03 PM
  #831
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Originally Posted by KIRK View Post
Just so you know . . . 2 years, 13 or 14M, 3 years, maybe 18M, even 4 years, 20M: I would feel A LOT more comfortable with any of those options.

BUT, if you think he'd be a great fit here AND if the price of having him NOW is a 4 year, 22-24M deal that COULD be an issue in the 2015-2016, then isn't it worth the potential risk THEN to help Sid, Geno, and this team so much NOW and next year and the year after?


As I said, this ties into the Shero debate: The risk averse GM doesn't touch Doan on the deal it will take to get him with a 20 foot pole. The risk manager looks at the pros, looks at the cons (that may or may not materialize), and, IMO, says 'on balance, it's worth the risk'.
I think I've already said that I think it is.

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07-29-2012, 12:04 PM
  #832
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we can trade a package though. We don't always have to trade 1 d-man for two guys coming back. We could be the ones adding. Look at the Nash trade. NYR didn't give anything close to Whitney or Goligoski's value. Sure, Columbus had their hands tied by Nash but even look back to the Hossa deal. The most valuable piece we sent them was Angelo Esposito.
Yes, but with the Nash deal, they had 2 NHL players going the other way. Same with the Hossa deal, EC and Colby. While none of those guys were all-stars, they were legit NHL players (with upside) going back in the deals.

The Pens don't have a lot in terms of established NHL assets that they'd actually be willing to move. I mean sure if you could actually swing something like Despres/TK/1st for Bobby Ryan then hell yeah, but I have to assume that's wishful thinking. Whatever you are likely to get back will probably not be enticing enough to justify parting with Despres IMO.

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07-29-2012, 12:06 PM
  #833
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Guys honestly I think we're becoming obsessed with signing a name this summer. I don't think six months from now and Doan just doing an OK job producing (the most likely outcome by far), anyone will feel good about a $6-7M year contract for him. In fact I think we'd all get pissed about it eventually because it's bad value and would tie our hands at the deadline (depending on final cap numbers). And if you ever need to unload him, who will take that contract? Almost no one.

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07-29-2012, 12:06 PM
  #834
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Originally Posted by Ogrezilla View Post
Orpik and Kunitz are off the books that same year. It shouldn't be a problem. If Malkin and Letang want too much raise worst that happens is we lose Kunitz. Which does suck, but it's not catastrophic.
I think Paul Martin goes before we get there, but, yeah, it's not as if the Pens won't be able to absorb a Doan contract.

One thing I keep going back to: You put Doan out there with Sid or Geno, and what Doan does on the ice will enable Sid or Geno to be more dominant. Even if he doesn't score 80 points, he'll just help make one of those guys so much better. I think that's what people miss about someone like Dupuis. Dupuis can keep up with Sid. He can help out there some. He can get points. BUT, I don't think Dupuis helps to make Sid a better player in say the way Hossa did OR say the way Malone did or Neal does for Geno.

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07-29-2012, 12:07 PM
  #835
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Originally Posted by Ogrezilla View Post
I think I've already said that I think it is.
Sorry, I wasn't sure if you were saying that or if it was an 'oh, well in that case, no' thing from others here.

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07-29-2012, 12:09 PM
  #836
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Originally Posted by Dupree13 View Post
Yes, but with the Nash deal, they had 2 NHL players going the other way. Same with the Hossa deal, EC and Colby. While none of those guys were all-stars, they were legit NHL players (with upside) going back in the deals.

The Pens don't have a lot in terms of established NHL assets that they'd actually be willing to move. I mean sure if you could actually swing something like Despres/TK/1st for Bobby Ryan then hell yeah, but I have to assume that's wishful thinking. Whatever you are likely to get back will probably not be enticing enough to justify parting with Despres IMO.
If we're looking at guys like Bobby Ryan then there's no reason guys like Dupuis, Cooke, Tangradi, Jeffrey, TK and Kunitz aren't all on the table. And if Despres proves he can be our number 4 d-man then I really think we could see one of Martin or Niskanen traded at some point during the season too.

basically, I think our untouchable roster players are Crosby, Malkin, Neal and Letang. Right now I think Sutter is damn near untouchable because I really think Shero wants that really good 3C and because I don't see him flipping a guy right after trading Staal for him unless he gets completely blown away with a ridiculous offer.

The defense is trickier because so many guys are question marks including vets like Martin and Orpik.

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07-29-2012, 12:10 PM
  #837
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Originally Posted by KIRK View Post
Sorry, I wasn't sure if you were saying that or if it was an 'oh, well in that case, no' thing from others here.
I wouldn't be thrilled about it, but I'd do it. And I'd be pretty close to thrilled about it in the short term.

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07-29-2012, 12:12 PM
  #838
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Guys honestly I think we're becoming obsessed with signing a name this summer. I don't think six months from now and Doan just doing an OK job producing (the most likely outcome by far), anyone will feel good about a $6-7M year contract for him. In fact I think we'd all get pissed about it eventually because it's bad value and would tie our hands at the deadline (depending on final cap numbers). And if you ever need to unload him, who will take that contract? Almost no one.
Yeah, in four years, I could be pissed about Doan. BUT, I'll take what it would mean for the three years in between. And, again, I'm a lot less interested in how many points Doan produces and a lot more interested in how Doan would help Sid or Geno control play more, because THAT is the type of thing that's going to matter in the playoffs. The whole 'well, Sullivan or Dupuis gets points' thing is nice for the regular season. At this point, I'm more interested in a team that is better positioned to win a cup. Signing Doan to a four year deal, even if there's a risk that it's not worth it in the fourth year, is worth it now, next year, and most likely the year after. In a sense, it's like the Hossa trade . . . you give up all these assets (in Doan's case, all this cap space) to win now, even though there's a risk three or four years down the line. And, for me, I just keep going back to this: Don't Sid and Geno deserve that every year? Ray Shero used to act like a GM who thought that, at least until the Pens won a cup.

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07-29-2012, 12:14 PM
  #839
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Originally Posted by Ogrezilla View Post
I wouldn't be thrilled about it, but I'd do it. And I'd be pretty close to thrilled about it in the short term.
Plus, you never know. So many people seem so sure about this, that Doan won't be worth it in the fourth year. It reminds me of all the people who said a few years ago that Ray Whitney wasn't worth a multi-year deal.

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07-29-2012, 12:15 PM
  #840
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Originally Posted by Chancellor Vitale View Post
Guys honestly I think we're becoming obsessed with signing a name this summer. I don't think six months from now and Doan just doing an OK job producing (the most likely outcome by far), anyone will feel good about a $6-7M year contract for him. In fact I think we'd all get pissed about it eventually because it's bad value and would tie our hands at the deadline (depending on final cap numbers). And if you ever need to unload him, who will take that contract? Almost no one.
I agree he'd be overpaid, but I also think Doan brings a lot more than point production.

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07-29-2012, 12:17 PM
  #841
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In the end I might well be developing an unhealthy obsession with needing contracts to come of the books when Malkin's, Letang's and Sutter's new deals start. It was the same with Semin. And I always though getting Parise AND Suter would have been THE WORST!!! (((

At the end of day I am completely willing to let go of it the second Doan signs a deal here. It's not my money and cap space isn't potting 30 next season.
By the time Letang is up, Orpik will be too. By that time one of our prospects (Dumoulin perhaps) will be ready to take over for Orpik. Orpik's salary can be used for Letang who is probably going to get a long term (CBA max if applicable) $6mil cap hit contract.

Malkin is gonna get the Crosby deal. At this point its too difficult to determine Sutter's potential contract.

We can survive signing Doan. Worst case, I'm sure in two years there may be team needing him if they need to get to the cap floor. Who knows, in 2 years he may want a trade back to Phoenix to end his career? No one knows.

Someone brought up trading for Iggy then resigning him...wonder what he would sign for? Think we could get a 2yr/8-10mil contract from him?

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07-29-2012, 12:20 PM
  #842
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Originally Posted by Ogrezilla View Post
I agree he'd be overpaid, but I also think Doan brings a lot more than point production.
And, lest anyone think differently, I assume you're not just talking about 'veteran character' here.

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07-29-2012, 12:22 PM
  #843
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By the time Letang is up, Orpik will be too. By that time one of our prospects (Dumoulin perhaps) will be ready to take over for Orpik. Orpik's salary can be used for Letang who is probably going to get a long term (CBA max if applicable) $6mil cap hit contract.

Malkin is gonna get the Crosby deal. At this point its too difficult to determine Sutter's potential contract.

We can survive signing Doan. Worst case, I'm sure in two years there may be team needing him if they need to get to the cap floor. Who knows, in 2 years he may want a trade back to Phoenix to end his career? No one knows.

Someone brought up trading for Iggy then resigning him...wonder what he would sign for? Think we could get a 2yr/8-10mil contract from him?
No. He's a year younger and produces more and brings the same intangibles compared to Doan. If we're legitimately debating paying Doan 6M, then I'd think that would be the ballpark (on the low end, if he really likes it in Pittsburgh) for Iginla on what I'd think would be a 4 year deal.

I'll put it this way: I'd rather give Iginla 4 yrs, 24M in 12 months than Doan the same deal now, but I'd also make either deal (albeit with reservations).

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07-29-2012, 12:22 PM
  #844
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Originally Posted by KIRK View Post
And, lest anyone think differently, I assume you're not just talking about 'veteran character' here.
wasn't even on my list in my head.

Size
Physicality
Hard work
Solid production

In general he just helps dictate the game in a way guys like Dupuis and Sullivan just can't match.

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07-29-2012, 12:23 PM
  #845
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Originally Posted by Ogrezilla View Post
I agree he'd be overpaid, but I also think Doan brings a lot more than point production.
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Originally Posted by KIRK View Post
And, again, I'm a lot less interested in how many points Doan produces and a lot more interested in how Doan would help Sid or Geno control play more,

What is it (if not points) that you think Doan would be so much better at (given our simplistic cycle game) vs. Kunitz or Dupuis for example? To me goals has to be the barometer. You saw what Neal did for Geno last year. Each of them opened up space for the other because both were a legitimate threat to score every time they touched the puck in the offensive zone. I don't think that would be true of Doan. I think teams could still key in on Crosby quite a bit and I don't know that Doan will do that great a job of finishing when Crosby gets him those seeing eye passes. Not the way Neal could finish for example.

And playoffs is the most important I agree; and so we could get along just fine until the deadline, at which point we'd have at least 5 or 6 good players (not yet signed and younger than Doan) we could trade for and hopefully sign over teh summer.

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07-29-2012, 12:29 PM
  #846
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What is it (if not points) that you think Doan would be so much better at (given our simplistic cycle game) vs. Kunitz or Dupuis for example? To me goals has to be the barometer. You saw what Neal did for Geno last year. Each of them opened up space for the other because both were a legitimate threat to score every time they touched the puck in the offensive zone. I don't think that would be true of Doan. I think teams could still key in on Crosby quite a bit and I don't know that Doan will do that great a job of finishing when Crosby gets him those seeing eye passes. Not the way Neal could finish for example.

And playoffs is the most important I agree; and so we could get along just fine until the deadline, at which point we'd have at least 5 or 6 good players (not yet signed and younger than Doan) we could trade for and hopefully sign over teh summer.
1. Sure, maybe we could make that big deadline deal, just like this year or two years ago, when this team was really positioned for a cup run. Sarcasm aside, it's the ideal plan, but it hasn't worked out that way.

2. As for what Doan adds, I think Ogrezilla really summed it up best:

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Originally Posted by Ogrezilla View Post
wasn't even on my list in my head.

Size
Physicality
Hard work
Solid production

In general he just helps dictate the game in a way guys like Dupuis and Sullivan just can't match.
For me (and I think Ogrezilla), it matters a lot more how a linemate helps Sid control play in the playoffs than it does how many points he scores in the regular season. And, that ultimately is the difference between Dupuis and Doan. Philly went with the throw the kitchen sink at Geno approach. Sid had two linemates no less talented than Geno did during the 2009 cup run. So, why wasn't Sid absolutely dominant? The answer: In 2009, Talbot morphed into Ryan Malone lite for 16 magical and fortuitously timed games (even Feds could win a playoff game battle here and there). Talbot helped Geno control plan in a way that Dupuis NEVER has helped Sid control play in the playoffs (in a way that Sully didn't either against Philly).

EDIT: Kunitz helps more than Dupuis in playoff hockey, but he's inconsistent in terms of that physical impact unless it's against a smallish defender (he rocked a guy like Timonen's world against the Flyers during the cup run, but he was invisible as a space creator and physical presence against Grossman and Coburn).

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07-29-2012, 12:32 PM
  #847
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Originally Posted by Chancellor Vitale View Post
What is it (if not points) that you think Doan would be so much better at (given our simplistic cycle game) vs. Kunitz or Dupuis for example? To me goals has to be the barometer. You saw what Neal did for Geno last year. Each of them opened up space for the other because both were a legitimate threat to score every time they touched the puck in the offensive zone. I don't think that would be true of Doan. I think teams could still key in on Crosby quite a bit and I don't know that Doan will do that great a job of finishing when Crosby gets him those seeing eye passes. Not the way Neal could finish for example.

And playoffs is the most important I agree; and so we could get along just fine until the deadline, at which point we'd have at least 5 or 6 good players (not yet signed and younger than Doan) we could trade for and hopefully sign over teh summer.
I would compare Doan more to Kunitz than Neal. He would do the things Kunitz does but he would give us two of them and he's probably still a good bit better than Kunitz. I said way back in the "We need Crosby's Neal" thread that finding another Kunitz -- while slightly less valuable -- is much more realistic. One advantage is he's noticeably bigger than Kunitz. Kunitz' physical game largely consists of big hits based on speed and willingness to hit. Doan is just stronger on the boards and can stand up to bigger players in tight spaces way better. As far as what he does better than Dupuis my answer is almost everything but speed. He's strong on the puck, he's more talented, he is MUCH more physical and he just in general makes the line much harder to play against.

He is also much more capable of creating his own offense than either Kunitz or Dupuis. And not that it's something I'd count on when deciding his worth, but he has been the main focus of the other team for years. I think he would punish teams more than either Kunitz or Dupuis if they give too much focus to Crosby.


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07-29-2012, 12:40 PM
  #848
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Kunitz helps more than Dupuis in playoff hockey, but he's inconsistent in terms of that physical impact unless it's against a smallish defender (he rocked a guy like Timonen's world against the Flyers during the cup run, but he was invisible as a space creator and physical presence against Grossman and Coburn).
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I would compare Doan more to Kunitz than Neal. He would do the things Kunitz does but he would give us two of them. I said way back in the "We need Crosby's Neal" thread that finding another Kunitz -- while slightly less valuable -- is much more realistic.
Yes I agree he's comparable to Kunitz and less easily pushed around by bigger defenders. Now, how would you feel about Kunitz if he was 35 instead of 32 and we were paying him $7M a year instead of $3.7M?

I don't disagree that Doan could be effective in a Kunitz-like role, only that you don't pay a Kunitz-like player $2M more a year than James Neal. I understand wanting the plug that gap but at some point it becomes bad decision making / bad cap management. Like I said what if he;s great for a season and a half then the wheels come off? I suppose we could buy him out but no is going to take his contract that's for sure.

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07-29-2012, 12:50 PM
  #849
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Yes I agree he's comparable to Kunitz and less easily pushed around by bigger defenders. Now, how would you feel about Kunitz if he was 35 instead of 32 and we were paying him $7M a year instead of $3.7M?

I don't disagree that Doan could be effective in a Kunitz-like role, only that you don't pay a Kunitz-like player $2M more a year than James Neal. I understand wanting the plug that gap but at some point it becomes bad decision making / bad cap management. Like I said what if he;s great for a season and a half then the wheels come off? I suppose we could buy him out but no is going to take his contract that's for sure.
one: I'm going on the rumors of a 6M cap hit that we supposedly offered.

two: Doan is better than Kunitz. Playing a Kunitz like role doesn't mean he can't have a greater impact.

three: Using Neal's contract as a comparison isn't really fair. Neal is on a ridiculously good contract if he plays like he did last year. I don't like using our own contracts to dictate what a UFA is worth. Especially our own RFA contracts.

four: why do we expect the wheels to fall off in a year and a half? I don't see any reason to expect that to happen that suddenly.

Look, I'm not saying it's a no brainer to sign him for that. There are negatives. It's a bit of an overpayment. But it's an overpayment that gives us almost exactly what we need. If you think we need to bring in 30+ goal scorers or pay guys like Kunitz less than 4M or even 5M a year I think you are going to be very very disappointed.


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07-29-2012, 01:00 PM
  #850
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Location: PA
Posts: 16,200
vCash: 500
People are really under ratting Doan. He was the C for Phoenix since 03. He plays with heart & grit which is exactly what this team needs. If you need to overpay him to get closer to a cup then you do it. I would take a 35 year old Doan on a longer contract than a 26 year old Semin any day.

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