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# Ideas for Future Studies

 03-07-2014, 09:20 AM #126 Vesa Awesaka "Lets win it all"     Join Date: Jul 2013 Location: Bath Country: Posts: 11,031 vCash: 500 Comparing Craig Anderson's 2012-2013 season versus his 2013-2014 season in terms of shot quality. Last year he put up historical numbers and this year hes below average. Did he just lose his ability to play goal or are the senators playing worse team defense and allowing better opportunities. Last edited by Vesa Awesaka: 03-07-2014 at 01:14 PM.
 03-19-2014, 05:53 PM #127 DL44 Registered User     Join Date: Sep 2006 Location: Left Coast Posts: 6,829 vCash: 513 Reworking the "Game Winning Goal" stat.. I would love to see the Game Winning Goal stat amended and redefined... and then see what kind of historical difference it makes in a study. How i would amend the definition of a GWG: The goal that gives the team the lead which it doesn't relinquish. i.e. Team A beats B : 3-2 Presently the 3rd goal by Team A is the GWG. Redefined scenarios: Team A beats B : 3-2 scenario 1 - A goes up 3-0, B scores next 2... 1st goal is the GWG. scenario 2 - Score tied by B at 1-1, A scores 2 to make it 3-1, B scores... 2nd goal is GWG. scenario 3 - Score tied by B at 2-2... 3rd goal scored is the GWG. Why change it: I believe it's an improvement by adding a little more significance to the stat. Con... it may still be flawed in the extreme example: A beats B 4-3. A scores 2: 2-0 B: 2-1 A: 3-1 B: 3-2 A: 4-2 B: 4-3 Final score 4-3... GWG : the 1st goal. But this Con would be far more rare than the present late meaningless goal scenario that occurs which shifts the reward of the stat. For the people who conduct these types of studies, the historical boxscores seem readily available... I once did a handful of teams a yr or two ago... but obviously not a league wide or multiple season en devour. ====== Edit: I found where i did a few teams for the 11-12 season: In this thread: http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh...+winning+goals I did: Van, CBJ, Ana, Bos, TB, and Pit in that thread. TO ME it seemed like it reflected a potentially significant difference... but i was met with less than open minds. Last edited by DL44: 03-19-2014 at 06:15 PM.
03-21-2014, 10:04 AM
#128
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by Vesa Awesaka Comparing Craig Anderson's 2012-2013 season versus his 2013-2014 season in terms of shot quality. Last year he put up historical numbers and this year hes below average. Did he just lose his ability to play goal or are the senators playing worse team defense and allowing better opportunities.
Ha, that's exactly why I was wondering about getting a good metric for rebounds.
Last season he was acting like black hole when any puck came near him - especially on the PK - and that allowed the team to hit the reset button when facing a lot of pressure.

 03-30-2014, 01:22 AM #129 KEEROLE Vatanen Ready 4 Ploffs     Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 22,502 vCash: 500 I'd like to try and track point shots How many..... A)Result in a SOG, B)Generate an immediate rebound chance/goal and C)how many are blocked or just completely miss the net. How effective are they in creating offense vs other methods, the league is becoming very point shot oriented, or so it seems
 04-01-2014, 01:09 PM #130 ChibiPooky Moderator Yay hockey!     Join Date: May 2011 Location: Fairfax, VA Country: Posts: 11,138 vCash: 500 If anybody's done a study on +/- WOWY, I'd be interested to see it.
04-08-2014, 07:50 AM
#131
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 Originally Posted by ChibiPooky If anybody's done a study on +/- WOWY, I'd be interested to see it.
I haven't seen a full study done, but I do know that stats.hockeyanalysis.com has all of the data you should need.

For example here's Getzlaf's WOWY stats this year at 5v5: http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/show...013-14&sit=5v5

Although they don't include total goals against, they do include GA/20 and total ice time so it would be trivial math to get it.

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 05-04-2014, 03:54 PM #132 Mike Farkas Hockey's Future Staff Grace Personified     Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: PA Country: Posts: 5,490 vCash: 500 Apologies if this has been covered before... I've seen a chart that tracked offensive production for an individual player by age (maybe quanthockey had it? I forget), however, has there been any research done in a similar mold based on NHL games played and prior professional games (AHL, SHL, SM-Liiga, KHL, etc.) played? __________________ http://twitter.com/MichaelFarkasHF
 05-04-2014, 08:27 PM #133 thom Registered User   Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 2,267 vCash: 500 Coaching plans before each game-that is the ultimate study.I guess its impossible but that would be interesting
 05-08-2014, 09:35 AM #134 rocky7 Tell itlikeit Isn't!     Join Date: Feb 2013 Location: God's country Posts: 3,464 vCash: 500 post-concussion production??? tracking players for, say a season after. __________________ Every day is "Military Appreciation Day"!!
 05-14-2014, 03:01 PM #135 R S Renegade Stylings     Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 24,670 vCash: 1500 I think tracking "assists" for shots on goal would be a helpful statistic to have tracked. You would be able to see who sets up and helps create the most offensive chances, regardless of whether or not those chances end up in the net or not. Maybe that's been covered in here before, if so, my apologies.
 05-21-2014, 12:37 PM #136 PepsiCenterMagic Food is Great     Join Date: Jul 2013 Country: Posts: 521 vCash: 500 I need to look into it further, but I bet there is a way to quantify the quality of shots, and how it correlated to current possession states.
05-21-2014, 12:41 PM
#137
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by PepsiCenterMagic I need to look into it further, but I bet there is a way to quantify the quality of shots, and how it correlated to current possession states.
The shot quality project (discussed here: http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh....php?t=1521655 ) shows some promise at doing this.

 05-21-2014, 07:38 PM #138 rockinghorse Registered User   Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 579 vCash: 500 Hi all. Is there a list that shows cost per minute of time played? Sort of like cost of a condo per square foot? Cost per minute of time played. Cost per minute of Time on ice as a penalty killer etc. thanks
05-22-2014, 10:20 PM
#139
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 Originally Posted by DL44 I would love to see the Game Winning Goal stat amended and redefined... and then see what kind of historical difference it makes in a study. How i would amend the definition of a GWG: The goal that gives the team the lead which it doesn't relinquish. i.e. Team A beats B : 3-2 Presently the 3rd goal by Team A is the GWG. Redefined scenarios: Team A beats B : 3-2 scenario 1 - A goes up 3-0, B scores next 2... 1st goal is the GWG. scenario 2 - Score tied by B at 1-1, A scores 2 to make it 3-1, B scores... 2nd goal is GWG. scenario 3 - Score tied by B at 2-2... 3rd goal scored is the GWG. Why change it: I believe it's an improvement by adding a little more significance to the stat. Con... it may still be flawed in the extreme example: A beats B 4-3. A scores 2: 2-0 B: 2-1 A: 3-1 B: 3-2 A: 4-2 B: 4-3 Final score 4-3... GWG : the 1st goal. But this Con would be far more rare than the present late meaningless goal scenario that occurs which shifts the reward of the stat. For the people who conduct these types of studies, the historical boxscores seem readily available... I once did a handful of teams a yr or two ago... but obviously not a league wide or multiple season en devour. ====== Edit: I found where i did a few teams for the 11-12 season: In this thread: http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh...+winning+goals I did: Van, CBJ, Ana, Bos, TB, and Pit in that thread. TO ME it seemed like it reflected a potentially significant difference... but i was met with less than open minds.
The GWG stats is to show which player is clutch, so I think it should be Goals to take lead when tied

 06-02-2014, 01:54 AM #140 Gibsons Finest R-E-L-A-X     Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Saskatoon Country: Posts: 19,658 vCash: 500 I'd like to possibly see the correlation between the CF% or FF% a team puts up and the percentage in which they hold the zone offensively and/or get pucks out defensively. Tough to track, since the latter two would have to be done manually(I believe), but it'd be interesting to know how strongly those go hand in hand.
 08-31-2014, 11:35 PM #141 mattkaminski15 Registered User   Join Date: Feb 2014 Location: Chicago Posts: 250 vCash: 500 I'd like to do a study on Patrick Kane. As a die hard hawks fan, I hate the guy. I would like to find his ice time and puck possessiontime plus his shots on goal and goal count and compare that tothe goals he's been on the ice for. I want to see if he produces more than wastes time on the ice.
 09-01-2014, 07:10 AM #142 Blue Dragon Registered User     Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Ohio Country: Posts: 1,472 vCash: 500 Do defensemen have the ability to block good scoring lanes from opponents? I wonder if having a particular defenseman on the ice has a positive impact on their goaltenders SV% (one would assume that blocking a good scoring lane would mean a goalie would face easier to save shots). That is, say, "Varlamov's SV% was .927 last year, but went up to .945 when Barrie was on the ice" (the numbers are made up in that particular case, but you get the picture).
09-02-2014, 10:39 AM
#143
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by Blue Dragon Do defensemen have the ability to block good scoring lanes from opponents? I wonder if having a particular defenseman on the ice has a positive impact on their goaltenders SV% (one would assume that blocking a good scoring lane would mean a goalie would face easier to save shots). That is, say, "Varlamov's SV% was .927 last year, but went up to .945 when Barrie was on the ice" (the numbers are made up in that particular case, but you get the picture).
Multiple studies have focused on whether defensemen can impact on-ice sv%. The answer is not really.
http://hockey-graphs.com/2014/07/07/...ve-percentage/

09-03-2014, 05:56 PM
#144
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 Originally Posted by Mystlyfe Multiple studies have focused on whether defensemen can impact on-ice sv%. The answer is not really. http://www.broadstreethockey.com/201...ession-defense http://hockey-graphs.com/2014/07/07/...ve-percentage/
I've seen those before and always wanted to see a similar analysis on the team level (maybe it has already been done?).

For example, one could take the two-season Sv% of a goalie on team X, and then compare that to the two-season Sv% of that same goalie on team Y. Of course we would be restricted to goalies who were traded and had two seasons on each team. But this would tell us if teams have an effect on Sv%, which I believe to be true but don't have any data to support.

09-04-2014, 09:07 AM
#145
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 Originally Posted by charlie1 I've seen those before and always wanted to see a similar analysis on the team level (maybe it has already been done?). For example, one could take the two-season Sv% of a goalie on team X, and then compare that to the two-season Sv% of that same goalie on team Y. Of course we would be restricted to goalies who were traded and had two seasons on each team. But this would tell us if teams have an effect on Sv%, which I believe to be true but don't have any data to support.
The problem with that would be sample size. So few goalies go from playing significant minutes for one team to playing significant minutes with another team in a consistent part of their career.

 09-04-2014, 09:11 AM #146 thom Registered User   Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 2,267 vCash: 500 Very simple comparing teamates on great team-who was the best and by how much
09-04-2014, 09:24 AM
#147
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 Originally Posted by hatterson The problem with that would be sample size. So few goalies go from playing significant minutes for one team to playing significant minutes with another team in a consistent part of their career.
Yeah and I've heard that before, but even if we got, say, 30 goalies together it would be worth doing IMO (and I think we can get significantly more).

Just this year alone I can think of three goalies off the top of my head that we could do it for: Miller, Halak, Hiller. All played two years at their previous team and will likely be starters for the next two years. I'm sure I'm missing some from this year too.

And it could be done using goalies from all eras. We know Sv% has steadily increased over the years, but that doesn't really matter in this analysis since we're just comparing goalies to themselves over a span of 4 years total. So we have a lot of data to draw from.

Last edited by charlie1: 09-04-2014 at 09:35 AM.

09-04-2014, 09:35 AM
#148
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 Originally Posted by charlie1 Just this year alone I can think of three goalies off the top of my head that we could do it for: Miller, Halak, Hiller. All played two years at their previous team and will likely be starters for the next two years. I'm sure I'm missing some from this year too.
But Miller is the only one of the three that was a consistent starter over the last two years. Hiller has 75 starts over the last 2 years combined. Halak only has 65 and 12 of those were with the Caps.

Even Miller only has 79 starts for the Sabres over the last 2 years and 19 for the Blues, and he's also at the point of his career where goalies usually start to fade a bit.

Granted all three of those numbers are lower because of the shortened season, but it's still rare for a goalie to start 2/3 of the games (~55 in a normal season) for one team and then 2/3 of the games for another team.

I think a better way to look at it is the way the shot quality project at sportsnet is. Try and figure out the quality of chances teams give up, ignoring whose in goal, and see if teams can maintain higher or lower quality on a consistent basis.

09-04-2014, 09:51 AM
#149
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 Originally Posted by hatterson But Miller is the only one of the three that was a consistent starter over the last two years. Hiller has 75 starts over the last 2 years combined. Halak only has 65 and 12 of those were with the Caps. Even Miller only has 79 starts for the Sabres over the last 2 years and 19 for the Blues, and he's also at the point of his career where goalies usually start to fade a bit. Granted all three of those numbers are lower because of the shortened season, but it's still rare for a goalie to start 2/3 of the games (~55 in a normal season) for one team and then 2/3 of the games for another team.
Well then the question is how many games is enough to accurately judge a goalies Sv%? I haven't seen anyone look at that, but I imagine it is in the 50 - 100 game range. I'd still be interested to see how many goalies played 50 - 100 games over two years with one team, and then another 50 - 100 in the following two years with a different team. The 2012-2013 season would have to be projected out to 82 games.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by hatterson I think a better way to look at it is the way the shot quality project at sportsnet is. Try and figure out the quality of chances teams give up, ignoring whose in goal, and see if teams can maintain higher or lower quality on a consistent basis.
Good point, and I agree that this is a better way to look at it. I'd like to see both though, personally.

 10-12-2014, 11:25 PM #150 ChibiPooky Moderator Yay hockey!     Join Date: May 2011 Location: Fairfax, VA Country: Posts: 11,138 vCash: 500 What with zone entries becoming more of a focus, I'd like to see if there's anything meaningful in the passes that lead directly to controlled zone entries.

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