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Advanced Stats Player Predictions

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Old
05-16-2016, 07:45 PM
  #1
lfchockey
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Advanced Stats Player Predictions

Purely based on advanced stats, who do you think will have the biggest increase next year?

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05-22-2016, 10:18 PM
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LEAFANFORLIFE23
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Can't be predicted advanced stats don't account for injuries or anything

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05-22-2016, 11:04 PM
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If you want to look for goal scoring changes you can look for guys who either shot the puck a lot with a very high shooting % to decline or for guys who shot the puck with a very low shooting % to score more. Not really advanced but can help predict success. Look at comparing career averages.

For example, expect Komarov to decrease his scoring numbers from this year and probably from around 20 to about 10-12 this year.

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05-22-2016, 11:49 PM
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Originally Posted by LEAFANFORLIFE23 View Post
Can't be predicted advanced stats don't account for injuries or anything
I think what you're saying is that things are complicated so people shouldn't even try.

Yes, things are complicated.

No, that doesn't mean that we shouldn't try.

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05-23-2016, 12:06 AM
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LEAFANFORLIFE23
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I think what you're saying is that things are complicated so people shouldn't even try.

Yes, things are complicated.

No, that doesn't mean that we shouldn't try.
No in order to truly accurately who will have the biggest increase you would have to be able to account for unseen factors like injuries, flu, personal issues that cause people to miss games and therefore have less chance to put up numbers.

This can't be done there are to many factors.

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05-23-2016, 12:21 AM
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Originally Posted by LEAFANFORLIFE23 View Post
No in order to truly accurately who will have the biggest increase you would have to be able to account for unseen factors like injuries, flu, personal issues that cause people to miss games and therefore have less chance to put up numbers.

This can't be done there are to many factors.
It sounds like you are expecting 100% accuracy (the result) with a prediction. Its never going to give you that with anything really. An accurate prediction is extremely valuable and should be done.

It can be done for sure. Just look at what I posted just before. Its one of the easiest ways to predict goal scoring increases for players. Kadri, E. Kane and Krug would be 3 I would predict increase their goal totals next year.

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05-23-2016, 07:10 AM
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Originally Posted by LEAFANFORLIFE23 View Post
No in order to truly accurately who will have the biggest increase you would have to be able to account for unseen factors like injuries, flu, personal issues that cause people to miss games and therefore have less chance to put up numbers.

This can't be done there are to many factors.
If you're expecting perfect predictability from an algorithm, then yes, you're expecting too much.

However, if you're expecting perfect predictability from LITERALLY ANYTHING ELSE, then you're also expecting too much.

Are you suggesting that (for instance) scouts have figured out a way to predict "personal issues that cause people to miss games"?

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05-23-2016, 11:16 AM
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Anyways, here are a couple of goal totals I would predict for some players next season:

Phil Kessel: 26 -> 30
Evander Kane: 20 -> 25
Nazem Kadri: 17 -> 27
Torey Krug: 4 -> 11
Dustin Brown: 11 -> 18
Henrik Zetterberg: 13 -> 22
Jakub Voracek: 11 -> 20

What I did was pretty simple. I just took their career shooting % and multiplied it by their shot totals this year. Generally career shooting % seems to be close to constant in a career so the the biggest variable is total shots. The biggest name on there that I would expect to not rebound is Dustin Brown. The most overestimated jump is probably Nazem Kadri.

What I would say is it is likely safe to predict more goals for these players. They all 'slumped' this year.

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05-29-2016, 05:53 PM
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Originally Posted by Matthews 2 the Leafs View Post
Anyways, here are a couple of goal totals I would predict for some players next season:

Phil Kessel: 26 -> 30
Evander Kane: 20 -> 25
Nazem Kadri: 17 -> 27
Torey Krug: 4 -> 11
Dustin Brown: 11 -> 18
Henrik Zetterberg: 13 -> 22
Jakub Voracek: 11 -> 20

What I did was pretty simple. I just took their career shooting % and multiplied it by their shot totals this year. Generally career shooting % seems to be close to constant in a career so the the biggest variable is total shots. The biggest name on there that I would expect to not rebound is Dustin Brown. The most overestimated jump is probably Nazem Kadri.

What I would say is it is likely safe to predict more goals for these players. They all 'slumped' this year.
Yeah he was the case I came to mention.

Look at how hard his shooting % has tanked even compared to his (now lower) career average, not just earlier in his career.

In a vacuum, you'd expect him to rebound, but man, he's a crazy case. All his other indicators keep getting stronger, but shooting % (and hits, to be fair) keeps going down (and he is taking longer shots, so it's not like there's NO reason--but a lot of it literally just looks like snakebit, just permanently. It's kind of sad).

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