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Teams win more often when outshot?

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03-15-2014, 07:14 PM
  #1
Alexei Yashvalev
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Teams win more often when outshot?

I was just looking at team stats on nhl.com.

The overall winning percentage for teams when outshot is higher than when they outshoot their opponent. .512% vs .494%.

I just thought that was kind of weird. Clearly when you look at a box score the team with less shots is actually the one with the advantage.

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03-15-2014, 07:25 PM
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How Ya Drouin
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Keep calm corsi's wrong.

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03-15-2014, 07:26 PM
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Random Bruins Fan
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In the the third period or late in the game the team protecting a lead has already scored their goals and often sits back a bit playing a defensive game and generates few shots while the trailing team is desperate and tries to play offense and throw pucks at the net.

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03-15-2014, 07:27 PM
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SnowblindNYR
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Quote:
Originally Posted by How Ya Drouin View Post
Keep calm corsi's wrong.
I believe Corsi only looks at the 3rd period if the score is tied. Many times teams pad their stats in the 3rd while playing from behind.

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03-15-2014, 07:28 PM
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Alexei Yashvalev
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Random Bruins Fan View Post
In the the third period or late in the game the team protecting a lead has already scored their goals and often sits back a bit playing a defensive game and generates few shots while the trailing team is desperate and tries to play offense and throw pucks at the net.
I thought about that and also wondered if it has anything to do with goalies tending to play better the more shots they face.

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03-15-2014, 07:28 PM
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FlowNoMo
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SnowblindNYR View Post
I believe Corsi only looks at the 3rd period if the score is tied. Many times teams pad their stats in the 3rd while playing from behind.
what? no..

Corsi = shots + missed shots + blocked shots aka shots directed at net

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03-15-2014, 07:44 PM
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Chalupa Batman
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alexei Yashvalev View Post
I thought about that and also wondered if it has anything to do with goalies tending to play better the more shots they face.
There's no direct evidence that this happens (or the opposite, for that matter).

It's typically that the leading teams go into a defensive shell (allowing shots from the outside, and not taking risks themselves) in the third period.

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03-15-2014, 08:36 PM
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Rysto
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Yeah, it's called the score effect. Teams that are losing tend to shoot way more often. Some advanced stats only consider shots taken when the score is tied or a team is leading by only a single goal because of this.

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03-15-2014, 08:37 PM
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ClasslessGuy
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Team with Halak

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03-15-2014, 08:43 PM
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sbet1998
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Originally Posted by ClasslessGuy View Post
Team with Halak
What? Halak had been playing for the Blues the last few years and they dont allow many shots. The only thing that changed was his GAA from his stint with the Habs.

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03-15-2014, 08:51 PM
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sbet1998
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I think its more the lack of high end possession teams. Mediocre teams make up the majority of the NHL and thus play each other a lot leading to a lot of close games where which ever team finds themselves ahead goes into a defensive mode and allows a lot of low % shots in the 3rd periods. Good teams also do this, but they usually still find a way to maintain enough possession to hold onto the shot lead in these situations. This is my theory, anyways.

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03-15-2014, 09:09 PM
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Hynh
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First of all, that stat would count games when the shots are 29-28, would it not?

Second of all, teams play different when they have the lead. For instance, when the Blackhawks trail by 2 or more they take 68.9% of the shots. But when they are leading by 2 or more they take 52.1% of the shots.

Quote:
Originally Posted by FlowNoMo View Post
what? no..

Corsi = shots + missed shots + blocked shots aka shots directed at net
He's referring to score close corsi, which is generally held to be more predictive than just straight corsi.

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03-15-2014, 10:21 PM
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Avs
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I know one thing that happens with the Avs is that they play with the lead so often That the other starts throwing more, lower percentage shots on net

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03-15-2014, 11:34 PM
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When your team is leading, you usually sit back and the other team presses hard.

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03-15-2014, 11:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rysto View Post
Yeah, it's called the score effect. Teams that are losing tend to shoot way more often. Some advanced stats only consider shots taken when the score is tied or a team is leading by only a single goal because of this.
Just like in football, where passing yards don't usually correlate to winning. A team with a sizable deficit will start passing the ball on every down, while the team with the big lead will drop into soft coverage to prevent the big play. The leading team is trading yardage for keeping the clock winding, but it's not uncommon to see the team with more passing yards end up losing big.

Generally, a QB with a ratio of over 150 passing yards per passing TD was in this situation, with the winning percentage getting worse the higher the ratio goes.

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03-15-2014, 11:47 PM
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That's due to the Leafs.

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03-15-2014, 11:51 PM
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Milan90
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It's pretty obviously because of how teams play while carrying a lead, but if this is such a big flaw with shot numbers then why is Corsi taken as gospel?

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03-16-2014, 12:00 AM
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Hynh
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Milan90 View Post
It's pretty obviously because of how teams play while carrying a lead, but if this is such a big flaw with shot numbers then why is Corsi taken as gospel?
Score close 5x5 corsi (or fenwick) is the most commonly possession stat cited at a team level and attempts to avoid this by only looking at the events when the score is within 1 in the first two periods or tied in the third period and only including 5x5 play.

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03-16-2014, 12:03 AM
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Milan90
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hynh View Post
Score close 5x5 corsi (or fenwick) is the most commonly possession stat cited at a team level and attempts to avoid this by only looking at the events when the score is within 1 in the first two periods or tied in the third period and only including 5x5 play.
But then would this not miss a good deal of games since there are a high number of games where the margin is greater than two goals within the first two periods?

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03-16-2014, 12:22 AM
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Hynh
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Milan90 View Post
But then would this not miss a good deal of games since there are a high number of games where the margin is greater than two goals within the first two periods?
Yeah but in those situations, does it matter? When Calgary scored 4 in the first period against the Ducks the other night, was the rest of the game a true representation of the teams' abilities?

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03-16-2014, 12:54 AM
  #21
Milan90
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You can't just make the assumption that the only time a team plays like themselves is when the game is within one.

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03-16-2014, 10:25 AM
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ukyo
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Milan90 View Post
You can't just make the assumption that the only time a team plays like themselves is when the game is within one.
The thought is that using those times give you a better statistical correlation to winning.

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03-16-2014, 10:40 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Milan90 View Post
You can't just make the assumption that the only time a team plays like themselves is when the game is within one.
You're not, you're assuming that when the game isn't within 1, teams tend to play differently.

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03-16-2014, 10:43 AM
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Nazemlupul
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It's working for the 3rd place team in the east

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03-16-2014, 11:10 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nazemlupul View Post
It's working for the 3rd place team in the east
Yeah...

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