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# A Closer Look at the last 20 Ross Races ('94-'14)

 01-11-2015, 04:01 AM #1 Czech Your Math Registered User     Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: bohemia Country: Posts: 4,009 vCash: 500 A Closer Look at the last 20 Ross Races ('94-'14) I looked at the point scoring races for the 20 seasons from '93-94 to '13-14. I looked at anywhere from a few to several players during each season, depending on the apparent closeness and dynamics of the race. Unless specified otherwise "after X games" or "thru X GP" means after each team had played X games that season. The exception to that would be '06 Thornton, in which case it means "after Thornton had X games available to him to play." When statistics such as the mean or median of the leaders over the 20 season period are given, this simply gives the mean or median of the 20 leaders, with these exceptions: - For the '95 season, Jagr was the de facto winner, due to him having more goals. However, since Jagr & Lindros tied for the lead in points, each player is counted as having half of the season-end lead for the purposes of both mean & median. - For the '06 season, Thornton was the de facto winner, due to him scoring more points. However, since Thornton was traded and had a total of 84 games available to him, Jagr actually had more points after each player had 82 available games. Therefore, each player is counted as having half of the season-end lead for the purposes of both mean & median. Finally, Thornton's actual season totals were used in the calculations (not his totals after 82 available games). - The lockout-shortened seasons of '95 & '13 are treated as follows: The mean & median of most data includes the data for those seasons' leaders (as described above for '95), but adjusted to 82 games. Data for the shortened seasons is not included when comparing the margin of the lead or position of a player at some point in the season compared to the end of (what is presumed to be an 82 game) season. - The '94 season was 84 games, but unless otherwise specified, the end of that season is considered to be 84 GP, not 82 GP as in other seasons. I will make another post(s) with some data. If you have any general questions or questions specific to a certain season during the period, then I will do my best to answer that when time permits. Last edited by Czech Your Math: 01-11-2015 at 05:34 AM.
 01-11-2015, 05:33 AM #2 Czech Your Math Registered User     Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: bohemia Country: Posts: 4,009 vCash: 500 Data for Ross winners '94-'14: Scoring Mean- 79 GP, 43 G, 71 A, 114 Pts, 1.45 PPG Median- 81 GP, 42 G, 70 A, 113 Pts, 1.46 PPG Adjusted Scoring (to 6.00 GPG & 82 game schedule, no adj. for A/G ratio) Mean- 46 G, 76 A, 122 Pts, 1.56 PPG Median- 45 G, 76 A, 120 Pts, 1.51 PPG ES Scoring Mean- 71 ES Pts, 63% of Pts at ES Median- 71 ES Pts, 64% of Pts at ES Highs & Lows (* shortened season adj. to 82 GP, ** see OP) -------------------- GOALS Most '96 Lemieux 69 '08 Ovechkin 65 '95 Jagr 55* '06 Jagr 54** '01 Jagr 52 '01 Iginla 52 '97 Lemieux 50 '12 Malkin 50 '95 Lindros 50* Least '10 H. Sedin 29 '03 Forsberg 29 '06 Thornton 29** '13 St. Louis 29* '09 Malkin 35 '98 Jagr 35 '14 Crosby 36 '07 Crosby 36 ASSISTS Most '06 Thornton 96** '96 Lemieux 92 '94 Gretzky 92 '07 Crosby 84 '99 Jagr 83 '10 H. Sedin 83 '09 Malkin 78 '03 Forsberg 77 Least '02 Iginla 44 '08 Ovechkin 47 '00 Jagr 54 '04 St. Louis 56 '12 Malkin 59 '11 D. Sedin 63 '95 Jagr 65* POINTS Most (in parentheses finished 2nd in points) '96 Lemieux 161 ('96 Jagr 149) '94 Gretzky 130 '99 Jagr 127 '06 Thornton 125** '06 Jagr 123** '97 Lemieux 122 '01 Jagr 121 '07 Crosby 120 '95 Jagr 120* '95 Lindros 120* ('94 Fedorov 120) ('96 Sakic 120) Least '04 St. Louis 94 '02 Iginla 96 '00 Jagr 96 '98 Jagr 102 '13 St. Louis 103 '11 D. Sedin 104 '14 Crosby 104 '03 Forsberg 106 '12 Malkin 109 ES POINTS Most (in parentheses finished 2nd or lower in points) ('96 Jagr 95) '10 H. Sedin 83 '99 Jagr 82 ('94 Fedorov 81) ('97 LeClair 81) '97 Lemieux 79 '95 Lindros 79* '01 Jagr 78 '95 Jagr 77* Least '04 St. Louis 53 '07 Crosby 59 '94 Gretzky 62 '02 Iginla 64 '98 Jagr 64 '14 Crosby 66 ADJ. GOALS Most '08 Ovechkin 72 '96 Lemieux 66 '02 Iginla 60 '01 Jagr 57 '12 Malkin 56 '95 Jagr 55* '06 Jagr 54** '97 Lemieux 51 Least '06 Thornton 29** '10 H. Sedin 31 '13 St. Louis 33* '03 Forsberg 33 '94 Gretzky 34 '08 Malkin 37 '07 Crosby 38 '98 Jagr 40 ADJ. ASSISTS Most '06 Thornton 95** '99 Jagr 95 '10 H. Sedin 90 '96 Lemieux 88 '07 Crosby 88 '03 Forsberg 87 '94 Gretzky 83 '13 St. Louis 83* '09 Malkin 82 Least '02 Iginla 50 '08 Ovechkin 52 '00 Jagr 59 '95 Jagr 65* '04 St. Louis 65 '12 Malkin 67 ADJ. POINTS Most (in parentheses finished 2nd in points) '96 Lemieux 154 '99 Jagr 145 ('96 Jagr 142) '01 Jagr 132 ('01 Sakic 128) '97 Lemieux 126 '07 Crosby 125 '08 Ovechkin 124 '06 Thornton 124** '12 Malkin 123 '06 Jagr 122** ('99 Selanne 122) '10 H. Sedin 121 '03 Forsberg 120 '95 Jagr 120* '95 Lindros 120* Least '00 Jagr 105 '04 St. Louis 110 '02 Iginla 110 '13 St. Louis 116* '98 Jagr 116 PPG (min. 45 GP) Most (in parentheses finished 2nd or lower in points) '96 Lemieux 2.30 ('96 Jagr 1.82) '97 Lemieux 1.61 '94 Gretzky 1.60 ('96 Lindros 1.58) '99 Jagr 1.57 ('96 Francis 1.55) '06 Thornton 1.54** '00 Jagr 1.52 '95 Lindros 1.52* ('97 Lindros 1.52) '07 Crosby 1.52 '10 Ovechkin 1.51 ('94 Neely 1.51) ('97 Jagr 1.51) '06 Jagr 1.50** '01 Jagr 1.49 ('94 Lindros 1.49) ('94 Fedorov 1.46) '95 Jagr 1.46* ('96 Sakic 1.46) ('94 Oates 1.45) '12 Malkin 1.45 Least '04 St. Louis 1.15 '02 Iginla 1.17 '13 St. Louis 1.25* '11 D. Sedin 1.27 '14 Crosby 1.30 '98 Jagr 1.32 '10 H. Sedin 1.37 '08 Ovechkin 1.37 '09 Malkin 1.38 ADJ. PPG (min. 45 GP) Most (in parentheses finished 2nd or lower in points) '96 Lemieux 2.20 '99 Jagr 1.79 ('96 Jagr 1.73) '00 Jagr 1.66 '97 Lemieux 1.65 ('10 Ovechkin 1.64) '12 Malkin 1.64 '01 Jagr 1.63 ('99 Selanne 1.63) '03 Forsberg 1.60 '07 Crosby 1.58 ('01 Sakic 1.57) ('97 Lindros 1.56) ('97 Jagr 1.55) ('03 Lemieux 1.53) '06 Thornton 1.53** '95 Lindros 1.53* '98 Jagr 1.51 ('08 Ovechkin 1.51) ('99 Sakic 1.50) ('08 Crosby 1.50) ('96 Lindros 1.50) ('99 Lindros 1.49) '06 Jagr 1.49** '94 Gretzky 1.49 '10 H. Sedin 1.48 Least '04 St. Louis 1.34 '02 Iginla 1.34 '11 D. Sedin 1.39 '13 St. Louis 1.41* '09 Malkin 1.45 '14 Crosby 1.46 '95 Jagr 1.46* Last edited by Czech Your Math: 03-14-2015 at 12:13 AM. Reason: lists amended to include previous omissions
01-11-2015, 05:46 AM
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I don't claim the following data to be 100% correct, since I used data for (at most) several players each season. However, I believe the accuracy is exceptionally high. This includes the current '15 season thru 41 GP. It does not include the shortened '95 & '13 seasons. It includes the 84-game '94 season only thru 82 GP.

Mean & Median margin between first and second after X games:

 6 1.8 1 7 2.1 1 8 2.7 3 9 2.7 2 10 3.5 3 11 3.7 3 12 3.5 2 13 4.5 5 14 4.2 3 15 4.2 3 16 3.8 3 17 3.9 2 18 3.9 2 19 4.6 3 20 4.6 4 21 4.5 3 22 4.9 3 23 4.3 4 24 4.4 3 25 4.3 2 26 4.4 3 27 4.7 4 28 5.1 4 29 4.8 2 30 4.7 4 31 5 4 32 4.7 3 33 4.8 4 34 4.8 3 35 5.6 4 36 5.5 3 37 5.4 5 38 5.7 5 39 6 5 40 5.9 5 41 5.7 5 42 5.9 6 43 6.6 7 44 6.5 6 45 6.4 6 46 6.8 7 47 6.4 6 48 6.5 7 49 6.5 7 50 6.3 5 51 6.2 4 52 6.1 5 53 6 5 54 6.1 4 55 5.9 4 56 5.9 4 57 5.8 4 58 6.1 5 59 6.4 6 60 6 5 61 6.5 6 62 6.3 7 63 5.9 5 64 6.1 5 65 5.9 5 66 5.6 4 67 5.4 4 68 6.5 5 69 6.6 5 70 6.3 5 71 6.1 4 72 6.5 6 73 7.4 7 74 7.3 8 75 7.6 8 76 7.7 8 77 8.7 9 78 8.2 8 79 7.7 8 80 7.9 8 81 8 7 82 7.9 6.5

It's interesting that the margin mostly peaks after 43-49 games, which I believe roughly corresponds to at or shortly before the All-Star break. There is a brief, slightly lower peak after 61 games. The official peak is after 77 games, but the margin then is only ~2 points higher than it was over 30 games previous to that. The final margin is roughly the same as it was after 43-49 games (slightly higher mean, similar or slightly lower median).

Last edited by Czech Your Math: 04-04-2015 at 02:17 PM. Reason: last updated thru 77 games of 2015 season

 01-11-2015, 06:53 PM #8 Glengarry Glencross Stay Gold, Ponyboy     Join Date: Apr 2014 Location: Calgary Country: Posts: 4,273 vCash: 50 Wow - great job. You had time to kill.
 01-12-2015, 01:18 PM #9 scoringking Registered User     Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 2,693 vCash: 500 Great great thread. Very good read👌
 01-12-2015, 10:08 PM #10 Doctor No HFB Partner     Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 4,272 vCash: 50 I enjoyed the work put into this - very nice!
 03-10-2015, 10:01 PM #11 Hockey Outsider Registered User     Join Date: Jan 2005 Country: Posts: 3,567 vCash: 500 Great research - thanks for putting this together. I'm not sure if this is possible but it would be really interesting to see the race (perhaps for the top 5-8 players) in graph form, tracking their progress throughout the season - either in terms of total points, or their margin relative to the leader. Minor correction: in your second post, you listed all of the players who scored 120+ points from 1994-present but missed Fedorov (120 points in 1994). There are a few players missing from the PPG list: Lindros in 1997 (1.52 ppg), Jagr in 1997 (1.51 ppg), Ovechkin in 2010 (1.51 ppg), Neely in 1994 (1.51 ppg), Lidrdos in 1994 (1.49 ppg), Fedorov in 1994 (1.46 ppg) and Oates in 1994 (1.45 ppg). You probably know that I don't put much stock in PPG, but it's still impressive to see Lindros with three of the sixteen seasons of 1.5 PPG or more, and one just barely below that. I thought for sure that your posted the wrong adjusted assists number for Jagr in 1999 (95). Yes, there are legitimate issues with how hockey-reference calculates adjusted assists, but that's a ridiculously good number given the "talent" Jagr had on his team that year. Maybe I knew this at the time and simply forgot, but I didn't realize that in 2005-06, Jagr was in the lead after 82 games. Similarly, for 2003, I forgot how amazing Lemieux played at the start of the season. Hard to imagine a 16 point lead in the scoring race after 21 games! I know that Pittsburgh carefully managed his schedule (generally not letting him play back-to-back). He got a ton of ice time when he played though. I wonder if they would have had more luck playing him in more games but with somewhat less ice time?
 03-11-2015, 11:56 AM #12 Howe Elbows 9 Registered User     Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Sweden Posts: 2,792 vCash: 447 Great job, this is really interesting.
 03-11-2015, 02:54 PM #13 Sticks and Pucks Registered User     Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 1,621 vCash: 500 That was a very interesting read. Some names I would not have expected to be in contention such as Jason Allison. Just wondering, did Palffy ever have the lead in 03-04? I seem to remember he was right up there until he got injured.
 03-12-2015, 08:48 AM #14 JaymzB Registered User     Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Toronto Country: Posts: 2,633 vCash: 500 One quick note. Using the 6.00 GPG Average, I’m pretty sure Lemieux ended up with a 1.53 ADJ PPG for 2002/3.
03-13-2015, 10:50 PM
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by Hockey Outsider Great research - thanks for putting this together. I'm not sure if this is possible but it would be really interesting to see the race (perhaps for the top 5-8 players) in graph form, tracking their progress throughout the season - either in terms of total points, or their margin relative to the leader.
I agree that it would be interesting to see these races in graph form. Perhaps I will do that at a later time, but I didn't do so due to the time involved in making the graphs and linking them to an online site. I believe the site I previously used is full (no more room for graphs), so if anyone knows a quick & easy site to link graphs, please let me know and I will try to get around to doing that at some point in the future.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Hockey Outsider Minor correction: in your second post, you listed all of the players who scored 120+ points from 1994-present but missed Fedorov (120 points in 1994). There are a few players missing from the PPG list: Lindros in 1997 (1.52 ppg), Jagr in 1997 (1.51 ppg), Ovechkin in 2010 (1.51 ppg), Neely in 1994 (1.51 ppg), Lidrdos in 1994 (1.49 ppg), Fedorov in 1994 (1.46 ppg) and Oates in 1994 (1.45 ppg). You probably know that I don't put much stock in PPG, but it's still impressive to see Lindros with three of the sixteen seasons of 1.5 PPG or more, and one just barely below that.
I obviously missed a lot of important player-seasons, and have added those to the list. Thanks for pointing out those notable omissions.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Hockey Outsider I thought for sure that your posted the wrong adjusted assists number for Jagr in 1999 (95). Yes, there are legitimate issues with how hockey-reference calculates adjusted assists, but that's a ridiculously good number given the "talent" Jagr had on his team that year.
I actually used the simplest of possible formulas for the adjusted scoring data on these lists:

Actual Player Data * 6.00 / League GPG

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Hockey Outsider Maybe I knew this at the time and simply forgot, but I didn't realize that in 2005-06, Jagr was in the lead after 82 games.
It was actually something to which not much attention was paid at the time, and has become all but forgotten by now, mainly because Thornton didn't actually play more than 82 games. When Thornton was traded during the season, the team he was traded to (San Jose) had two more games remaining than the team he was traded from (Boston). So Thornton had 84 games available, but since he missed 3 games due to injury, he only played 81 games. I necessarily structured the study in terms of team games played (to show where players stood at equal points during the season), so instead of declaring the de facto winner (Thornton) or the leader after 82 games (Jagr) the single winner, I treated them as co-winners for the purpose of calculating the means & medians of the winners.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Hockey Outsider Similarly, for 2003, I forgot how amazing Lemieux played at the start of the season. Hard to imagine a 16 point lead in the scoring race after 21 games! I know that Pittsburgh carefully managed his schedule (generally not letting him play back-to-back). He got a ton of ice time when he played though. I wonder if they would have had more luck playing him in more games but with somewhat less ice time?
Actually, it doesn't seem like they held Lemieux out of back to back games in 2003. He played 40 of their first 41 games, including both games of 7 of the 8 back to backs they had during that span. He then missed 10 of 11 games, but when he returned he played 17 consecutive games (including 3 more back to backs).

Similarly in 2001, he played both games in 7 of the 9 back to backs that the Pens had after his return (and one of those he missed was the last game of the season).

I think you are recalling his '96 and '97 seasons, when they frequently held him out of back to back games (particularly on the road?).

03-13-2015, 11:29 PM
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 Originally Posted by Sticks and Pucks That was a very interesting read. Some names I would not have expected to be in contention such as Jason Allison. Just wondering, did Palffy ever have the lead in 03-04? I seem to remember he was right up there until he got injured.
Great memory and thanks for bringing his '04 campaign to my attention. This study was far from comprehensive and Palffy's 35 game '04 season slipped through the cracks. Palffy indeed led for most of the first 20 games and was still in the thick of the race when he was injured in his team's 40th game. Here is the detail:

Palffy took a share of the lead after 4 games and actually held his largest lead (by 3 points) after 5 games. During the first 20 games, he was the sole leader 9 times and shared the lead 5 times. He was the sole leader in games 15-20, but never by more than 2 points during that time. When he was first injured after 19 games, he led 26-24 over Lang. After missing 5 games, he was trailing by 5 points. The closest he got after that was within 3 points of Lang after team games 29 & 30. He last played in his team's 40th game and after 40 games he trailed co-leaders Sakic, Kovalchuk, and Lang by 5 points (46-41).

Thanks again, that was an important addition to the study!

03-13-2015, 11:46 PM
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 Originally Posted by JaymzB One quick note. Using the 6.00 GPG Average, I’m pretty sure Lemieux ended up with a 1.53 ADJ PPG for 2002/3.
Thanks, list amended!

My apologies for all the omissions on the PPG and Adjusted PPG lists. I have revised those lists.

I have also revised the '98 race to include leads held by Modano and Selanne.

Last edited by Czech Your Math: 03-14-2015 at 01:02 AM.

03-14-2015, 10:37 AM
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by Czech Your Math Great memory and thanks for bringing his '04 campaign to my attention. This study was far from comprehensive and Palffy's 35 game '04 season slipped through the cracks. Palffy indeed led for most of the first 20 games and was still in the thick of the race when he was injured in his team's 40th game. Here is the detail: Palffy took a share of the lead after 4 games and actually held his largest lead (by 3 points) after 5 games. During the first 20 games, he was the sole leader 9 times and shared the lead 5 times. He was the sole leader in games 15-20, but never by more than 2 points during that time. When he was first injured after 19 games, he led 26-24 over Lang. After missing 5 games, he was trailing by 5 points. The closest he got after that was within 3 points of Lang after team games 29 & 30. He last played in his team's 40th game and after 40 games he trailed co-leaders Sakic, Kovalchuk, and Lang by 5 points (46-41). Thanks again, that was an important addition to the study!
Thanks. It's also cool to see how Lang had led for much of the season. Most people looking back would not have thought that since he cooled off a bit and was not exactly the type of guy you'd see lead the league in scoring for an extended amount of time.

03-14-2015, 12:07 PM
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 Originally Posted by Sticks and Pucks Thanks. It's also cool to see how Lang had led for much of the season. Most people looking back would not have thought that since he cooled off a bit and was not exactly the type of guy you'd see lead the league in scoring for an extended amount of time.
Lang didn't really cool off. After 67 games, he was tied for the lead with St. Louis with 78 points. He then missed 11 consecutive games, but still finished 4th in PPG (two of those ahead of him, Forsberg & Savard, played 45 or fewer games... and Lang was edged by St. Louis 1.146-1.145 in PPG).

He was also tied for the lead with St. Louis after 63 games each, when he was traded.

 03-14-2015, 01:06 PM #20 BenchBrawl joueur de hockey     Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 10,554 vCash: 800 As a guy who checked stats in the newspapers obsessively when I was younger, this thread is like reading a personal journal from my past Great work.I actually remember a lot of these "statistical stories".
03-14-2015, 07:58 PM
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 Originally Posted by Czech Your Math Lang didn't really cool off. After 67 games, he was tied for the lead with St. Louis with 78 points. He then missed 11 consecutive games, but still finished 4th in PPG (two of those ahead of him, Forsberg & Savard, played 45 or fewer games... and Lang was edged by St. Louis 1.146-1.145 in PPG). He was also tied for the lead with St. Louis after 63 games each, when he was traded.
Ah, that's correct. It was the playoffs when he cooled down. But I guess so did the entire Red Wings team.

03-15-2015, 10:57 PM
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 Originally Posted by Hockey Outsider I suspect going forward I can make a post about another year in 60 minutes. I might do that infrequently, but am not planning to do all 20 seasons as CYM did.
The graph definitely helps the presentation.

If you do decide to post more graphs, I would suggest some of these seasons as the best candidates (with some of the most important players in the race grouped by rough order of importance):

1998- Jagr, Forsberg, Bure... Lindros, LeClair... Selanne, Modano
1999- Jagr, Selanne, Kariya... Lindros (LeClair), Forsberg (Sakic)
2001- Jagr, Sakic... Elias, Palffy, Allison... Kovalev, Straka
2004- St. Louis, Sakic, Kovalchuk... Palffy, Forsberg
2006- Jagr, Thornton, Alfredsson, Forsberg... Spezza, Heatley, Staal
2008- Ovechkin, Malkin, Crosby, Lecavalier
2010- H. Sedin, Ovechkin, Crosby... Thornton, Gaborik
2011- D. Sedin, Stamkos, Crosby
2012- Malkin, Stamkos, Giroux, H. Sedin, Spezza
2013- St. Louis, Crosby, Stamkos, Kane

Last edited by Czech Your Math: 04-04-2015 at 02:32 PM. Reason: included Lecavalier in '08

 03-16-2015, 10:02 AM #24 Andre Poodle Lussier Registered User     Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Semi seclusion Posts: 133 vCash: 500 Looking at this years race, winner will probably get less than 90 total points barring a pretty epic run in the final 12-13 games. That puts you back to 67-68 (Mikita, 87 points) for the last time a full season winner tallied less than 90. Bathgate's 84 point season in 61-62 looms as the low water mark since 1960...and those seasons had fewer total games than this year. Dead Puck 2.0! Catch the fever!
03-16-2015, 10:01 PM
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 Originally Posted by Andre Poodle Lussier Looking at this years race, winner will probably get less than 90 total points barring a pretty epic run in the final 12-13 games. That puts you back to 67-68 (Mikita, 87 points) for the last time a full season winner tallied less than 90. Bathgate's 84 point season in 61-62 looms as the low water mark since 1960...and those seasons had fewer total games than this year. Dead Puck 2.0! Catch the fever!
Most would blame the lack of PPs, but it's more than that.

The fewest ES points by the leader since expansion was Naslund with 58 in '04. Right now, the ES point leaders (Johnson, Tarasenko, Nash) are on pace for ~58-59 ES points.

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