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SV% and Playing With The Lead

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12-20-2015, 01:43 PM
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Calirose
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SV% and Playing With The Lead

Most argue that SV% is not nearly as 'team dependant' as GAA and rightly so.

My hypothesis is that goalies will have higher save percentages when their team is playing with the lead (this relationship should strengthen though out the game). This would suggest that SV% is quite team dependant, but not necessarily with respect to the quality of your team generally, but how they play on that night.

I posit that teams playing with the lead tend to take fewer low quality shots, possess more in the offensive zone and shoot proportionately more on higher percentage opportunities. Conversely, trailing teams take more low percentage shots, these 'desperation shots' should be more common for trailing teams at end of the game, when this 'propensity to take desperate' or 'low percentage' shots should increase. If this is true we will find that goalies playing with the lead will see their save percentage increase and vice versa.

This study would fly in the face (to some extent) of the "Quick is Elite" study done on the main board. It suggests that SV% goes down when a team faces fewer shots (winning teams face fewer shots).

This is going to take breaking down save percentages in the two situations, and ideally between the periods.

Has anything like this been done?

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12-29-2015, 04:40 PM
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Cold Medicine
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War-on-ice can show you this information if you select "Leading" from the "Score Situation" drop down menu.

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12-29-2015, 05:34 PM
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HamiltonNHL
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Calirose View Post
I posit that teams playing with the lead tend to take fewer low quality shots, possess more in the offensive zone and shoot proportionately more on higher percentage opportunities.
As the game wears on, the trailing team also takes more chances to try to generate offence ..... thus the leading team has a higher Shooting Percentage (gets better opportunities).

Like when I coach hockey, I'll tell a guy or two to cherry pick or tell the D to join the rush more than they should.

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