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Which Player Will Regress The Most

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Old
08-01-2012, 05:19 PM
  #1
DancesWithWookies
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Which Player Will Regress The Most

Its the off season and theres not a lot to talk about. So, in the spirit of keeping the Jets Conversations alive, I propose this topic. Its fun to think how each player will be better next year and no doubt many of them will be. But we should expect someone to take a step back. We saw this last year with Eric Fehr. I don't think anyone saw that coming. So who do you think will take a big step backward this season and why?

My guess is Ron Hainsey, from 10 assists last year to say... 1 goal this year

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08-01-2012, 05:20 PM
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DespoticNewt
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A lot of people expect Wellwood to regress this year.

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08-01-2012, 05:50 PM
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vBurmi
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Lots of people predicted Fehr would have an awful season based on the injury he was coming off of. Likewise, lots of people look at Wellwood's shooting percentage and number of second-assists he got last year and predict he'll regress next year.

I think with Little being bumped to second-line duties he may regress statistically a bit. He might continue to develop and that may offset the loss of opportunity however. I don't see his numbers improving though to be honest, I'll think at best he'll match last years.

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08-01-2012, 06:13 PM
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Sweech
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vBurmi View Post
Lots of people predicted Fehr would have an awful season based on the injury he was coming off of. Likewise, lots of people look at Wellwood's shooting percentage and number of second-assists he got last year and predict he'll regress next year.

I think with Little being bumped to second-line duties he may regress statistically a bit. He might continue to develop and that may offset the loss of opportunity however. I don't see his numbers improving though to be honest, I'll think at best he'll match last years.
I disagree about Little. I think the addition of Jokinen will only help his point totals.

If I was a betting man I'd say the tougher assignments will be going to Joni and Little will have some cushier ice time. Especially if he's on the second line which Noel has shown a tendency to shelter with softer minutes.

Not to mention when a team has the advantage of having a solid one-two punch up the middle oftentimes both centers benefit.

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08-01-2012, 06:23 PM
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I say wellwood

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08-01-2012, 06:31 PM
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foreverATLANTA
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Ron Hainsey.

(sorry lynk, I know from the ATL message boards that's your boy and all... but it's just how I feel!!)

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08-01-2012, 06:57 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sweech View Post
I disagree about Little. I think the addition of Jokinen will only help his point totals.

If I was a betting man I'd say the tougher assignments will be going to Joni and Little will have some cushier ice time. Especially if he's on the second line which Noel has shown a tendency to shelter with softer minutes.

Not to mention when a team has the advantage of having a solid one-two punch up the middle oftentimes both centers benefit.
I agree... Ugh I wrote a huge reply to this and then it somehow crashed and lost it all... screw gov't comps

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Old
08-01-2012, 07:17 PM
  #8
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I'm going to semi-cheat and take out some of the luck with playing time and PP time. This will all be in regards to 5v5pts/60...

LW:
Kane: similar if on 1st, improved if on 2nd for full year
Ladd: similar regardless
Ponikarovsy: guy drives possesion up like crazy, and he had a rough start last year, I'm going to guess better
X: Mittens, Maxwell, Cormier, Machecek will all do better in the boxcar stats (if they get FT gigs) but the M's will regress to human pts/60

C:
Jokinen: tough call, most likely taking the tough mins again and a lot of his points come from the PP (both goals and assists). Without Iggy I'm going to say a tad less.
Little: The guy is a golden sniper... who doesn't shoot. If the kid finally shoots more than 158-172 shots a year than 30 goals... if not look for similar...
Burmistrov: G/TOI improved by 70%ish, pts/TOI improved by 10%ish... if the kid can repeat you're looking at him being equal to Little last year... specially if he gets top6 mins with Kane or Ladd on the wing.
Slater: another tough call... depends on shift partners... could be up or down but not by much

RW:
Wheeler: he's the opposite of Wellwood; believe it or not puck luck hurt this kid: huge goal drought, worse sh% of his career... I say he'll be better
Wellwood: as said above most likely worse and most likely on the third line by Jan-Feb... but I still think he'll be dece for $ worth
Antropov: last season was the worst other than his last ATL season. I expect worse than last season but better than the ATL one
Thorburn: Don't know, don't care... not what he's here for

LD:
Enstrom: if no injuries: return of the 1.32pts/60 god. if injured again: just a top 20 dman at 0.99 pts/60
Hainsey: if he goes on 3rd with sheltered mins with Clitsome/Postma then some improvement... if he's on 2nd playing shutdown then some regression
Stuart: see Thorburn... duno duncare
Clitsome: random fact I learned today when looking up to see how Enstrom was 4th in pts/gm over last 3 years... Clitsome is 37th... now he didn't have quite the sample size Enstrom does so I doubt he'll be top 40 in league but I think with Huddy's help we may have scored with him

RD:
Byfuglien: he seams to range from 1.0 to 1.5 sporadically... even as a forward (further proof he isn't offensively better as a forward). If not injured I can see him being better but who knows.
Bogosian: better and even more awesome
Postma: not hard to improve from 0....

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08-01-2012, 07:35 PM
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I think Wheeler might regress a bit. He was playing like a man possessed for ~60 games and had above a PPG during that time.

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08-01-2012, 08:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WJG View Post
I think Wheeler might regress a bit. He was playing like a man possessed for ~60 games and had above a PPG during that time.
It was still only his 3rd highest pts/60 year, 2nd lowest g/60...
So I'm thinking he can actually improve... but only time will tell....

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08-01-2012, 08:32 PM
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Kane will score "only" 22 goals (on a league-record 537 wraparound attempts).

Miettinen will be the big positive surprise, with 20 goals (0 wraparounds).

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08-01-2012, 08:45 PM
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My Magic 8 ball replied this when I ask it if all Jets players will improve.....so the answer to your question is none!
Maybe Mason and Glass will take a step backwards



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08-01-2012, 11:13 PM
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HPsauce
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vBurmi View Post
Lots of people predicted Fehr would have an awful season based on the injury he was coming off of. Likewise, lots of people look at Wellwood's shooting percentage and number of second-assists he got last year and predict he'll regress next year.

I think with Little being bumped to second-line duties he may regress statistically a bit. He might continue to develop and that may offset the loss of opportunity however. I don't see his numbers improving though to be honest, I'll think at best he'll match last years.
No way Little's production slows, If anything i can see him leading the team in PTS.

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08-02-2012, 12:32 AM
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vBurmi
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Originally Posted by HPsauce View Post
No way Little's production slows, If anything i can see him leading the team in PTS.
I don't expect him to regress much, more likely plateau, I was just taking the discussion beyond the rather obvious answer of Wellwood. Ultimately I see Little consistently getting around 50pts as a second-line center, so I'm surprised you think there's any chance he'd lead the team in pts. Of the young players on the Jets that we all like to think will continue developing towards greatness, I think Little is nearest to hitting his peak and that his peak is notably lower than the likes of Kane, Wheeler, etc.

I could be entirely wrong but I just don't see anything special in Little. I've always looked at him as a decent piece for the team going forward, but ultimately someone who will amount to no more than being a steady second-line center. We also can't expect every young player to always do better each year than they did the previous, and I can't see Wheeler or Kane not continuing to improve, so Little seems like the next best available answer to me (besides Wellwood).

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08-02-2012, 12:59 AM
  #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by foreverATLANTA View Post
Ron Hainsey.

(sorry lynk, I know from the ATL message boards that's your boy and all... but it's just how I feel!!)
Same thoughts. Hainsey came quickly to my mind. I wouldn't be surprised if he plays a bad season and won't get another contract.

But honestly, I can't explain why. It's just a feeling. Also I think that Slater will score less because he'll play 4th line and PK minutes only the whole year, other than playing a lot on the 3rd line last year.

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08-02-2012, 01:48 AM
  #16
MrWigglez
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I don't know if I'd call it regression but I have a bad feeling that Burmi will not improve from last years totals.

My logic behind that statement is that I'm not sure what role he has on the team anymore. With Little and Jokinen taking the top 2 line centre positions and something like Anthro/Slater taking the bottom 2 I don't think he will play Centre this season (and IF Schief makes the team theres next to no hope he will). As for RW it kinda seems like he will be bounced between the second and third lines depending on how well Wellwood does. I fear he will be bounced around from various spots all season and never really get into the groove.

I hope I'm wrong, I really like him and hope for the best for him!

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08-02-2012, 02:47 AM
  #17
Reed Solomon
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Everyone will improve.

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08-02-2012, 03:25 AM
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Pavelec.

Let's hope I am wrong, but the whole DUI situation and the media attention might be a big impact on his play.

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08-02-2012, 10:03 AM
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Pavelec.

Let's hope I am wrong, but the whole DUI situation and the media attention might be a big impact on his play.
It'll be hard to regress as much as he did last year :s but 2 years in a row could spell CBJ style danger for the Jets

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08-02-2012, 10:20 AM
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How much can Hainsey regress? There is no reason to suspect his defensive game falls of and he has to improve offensively. He scored on zero percent of his shots last year, that won't happen again.

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08-02-2012, 10:23 AM
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If Kane passes Ladd on the depth chart, Ladd will score less.

Less 5 on 5 and less 5 on 4 time leads to less goals.

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08-02-2012, 10:24 AM
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How much can Hainsey regress? There is no reason to suspect his defensive game falls of and he has to improve offensively. He scored on zero percent of his shots last year, that won't happen again.
1 more goal - 2 more assists = 1 less point = regression haha

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08-02-2012, 10:33 AM
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No way Little's production slows, If anything i can see him leading the team in PTS.
You say that based on what? Little has never shown that kind of ability.

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08-02-2012, 10:35 AM
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
1 more goal - 2 more assists = 1 less point = regression haha
Probability owes Hainsey a few goals.

I would bet on him scoring at least 3. I'd also say 5 is likely if he stays healthy.

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08-02-2012, 10:50 AM
  #25
garret9
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Quote:
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Probability owes Hainsey a few goals.

I would bet on him scoring at least 3. I'd also say 5 is likely if he stays healthy.
oh common Tim ya know I was bugging you

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