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Old
08-02-2012, 10:56 AM
  #26
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
oh common Tim ya know I was bugging you
I know. Just reiterating that I don't see Hainsey falling apart. I expect a statistical bump.

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08-02-2012, 11:04 AM
  #27
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How much more can Hainsey improve?

He already scores 6 goals a game

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08-02-2012, 11:19 AM
  #28
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Expected to see more from Hainsey last season, touted as a top defenceman he was anything but, not great offensively or defensively and over paid. If anything this guy improves this season.

Wheeler really tailed off at the end of last season, after a slow start he was the Jets best player through most of the season.

Think a lot of guys had off seasons, pretty tough to say which guy will perform worse this year.

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08-02-2012, 11:39 AM
  #29
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Windsor newspaper came out with an article saying that Wellwood is training hard this year with his brother and a few others.
Maybe he won't regress. Maybe he'll be able to earn a large chunk of those points this year
If he proves me wrong and repeats I'll be one of the happiest here.

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08-02-2012, 12:04 PM
  #30
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Wellwood did opt for a one-year deal rather than a 2-year deal, so, he took a risk over some security. I think he wants to prove himself further on last season's productivity.

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08-02-2012, 12:23 PM
  #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DespoticNewt View Post
A lot of people expect Wellwood to regress this year.
Herd mentality. Same herd that wanted Wheeler burned at the stake 15 games into last season.

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08-02-2012, 01:02 PM
  #32
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Originally Posted by GrandChelems View Post
Herd mentality. Same herd that wanted Wheeler burned at the stake 15 games into last season.
I am one of those who think Wellwood will most likely regress but was pro-Wheeler from the begining...
I used a hybrid of stats and my own observations much like others. Many can come to the same conclusion for non-herd mentality reasons.
But, with signs of Wellwood pushing to make improvements where he's been criticized before, I'm excited to see him fight that opinion.


Last edited by garret9: 08-02-2012 at 01:07 PM.
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Old
08-02-2012, 02:53 PM
  #33
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I don't expect him to regress much, more likely plateau, I was just taking the discussion beyond the rather obvious answer of Wellwood. Ultimately I see Little consistently getting around 50pts as a second-line center, so I'm surprised you think there's any chance he'd lead the team in pts. Of the young players on the Jets that we all like to think will continue developing towards greatness, I think Little is nearest to hitting his peak and that his peak is notably lower than the likes of Kane, Wheeler, etc.

I could be entirely wrong but I just don't see anything special in Little. I've always looked at him as a decent piece for the team going forward, but ultimately someone who will amount to no more than being a steady second-line center. We also can't expect every young player to always do better each year than they did the previous, and I can't see Wheeler or Kane not continuing to improve, so Little seems like the next best available answer to me (besides Wellwood).
He's by far the hardest working forward. Not only that, but throught the whole season (after game 5) Our first line was, whoever was paired with Little. He got off to a slow start, then had an amazing run, if he hadn't gotten injured (slap shot to the ankle) i assume he would have continued his great play. After returning he didn't have the same pop in his step until the last 10-15 games of the season. In my opinion, he was playing most of the season hurt.

I think Little has the potential to be 60-70 pt player.

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Old
08-03-2012, 09:42 AM
  #34
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Buff

Distractions; excitement of new club is over. No contract incemtives. Always has been an up and down guy.

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Old
08-04-2012, 12:18 PM
  #35
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Hainsey regresses to only 5 goals per game

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Old
08-04-2012, 12:47 PM
  #36
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Olli Jokinen, or from last season on the team, I'll say... Kyle Wellwood

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Old
08-04-2012, 02:29 PM
  #37
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Can Ondrej Pavelec actually improve? Of course stats can always improve, but, he was soooooo good last year..I'm not at all suggesting that he will have a "bad" year either, but in all honesty, it could be tough to win games in Jets uniform.

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08-04-2012, 02:58 PM
  #38
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Originally Posted by MadMen88 View Post
Can Ondrej Pavelec actually improve? Of course stats can always improve, but, he was soooooo good last year..I'm not at all suggesting that he will have a "bad" year either, but in all honesty, it could be tough to win games in Jets uniform.
Pavelec can improve by being good for 40-50/60 instead of 30/60. His stats were terrible because he was terrible for 30 games.

He's athletic and has immense skill, but no one outside of Winnipeg thought he was great last season.

Now after the bad news, the good news: most experts say he should improve and have a breakout season this year. The goalie guild is highly respected
Quote:
WINNIPEG: I think Ondrej Pavelec is on the brink of becoming an elite talent, and I think over the next 12 months, he’ll ultimately reach that point. Adding Al Montoya as a backup was a nice move, and while adding Mark Dekanich to the system is clearly a risk, he’s a perfect guy for Eddie Pasquale to learn from. Pasquale was one of the most improved prospects over the past 12 months, and I like the direction his game is taking, but beyond him, the Jets have very weak depth, and they need it to improve quickly.
http://thegoalieguild.com/2012/08/de...rn-conference/

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Old
08-04-2012, 04:56 PM
  #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MadMen88 View Post
Can Ondrej Pavelec actually improve? Of course stats can always improve, but, he was soooooo good last year..I'm not at all suggesting that he will have a "bad" year either, but in all honesty, it could be tough to win games in Jets uniform.
This is the biggest myth Winnipeg fans believe right now. Pavelec was NOT as good as some would have you believe. He was a 15-25 starter in the league last year. He NEEDS to improve if the Jets want to make playoffs. He was great at times...average more often than that, and pretty bad at points too. He needs to be more consistent. His mediocre stats are no coincidence. The team defense and Pavelec both need to improve if the Jets want to make playoffs this year, which they should if they play up to their potential.

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08-05-2012, 03:09 PM
  #40
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Originally Posted by Holden Caulfield View Post
This is the biggest myth Winnipeg fans believe right now. Pavelec was NOT as good as some would have you believe. He was a 15-25 starter in the league last year. He NEEDS to improve if the Jets want to make playoffs. He was great at times...average more often than that, and pretty bad at points too. He needs to be more consistent. His mediocre stats are no coincidence. The team defense and Pavelec both need to improve if the Jets want to make playoffs this year, which they should if they play up to their potential.
You're right. Ondrej Pavelec really didn't play as good as we think he did Winnipeg. You hear that? Ondrej's record was 15-25...15 and 25!!!! He played HORRIBLE!! Give me a break. Ondrej Pavelec was sensational last year, and if he plays the same way with a better d-zone, he'll be even better. This is far from being a myth, let alone the biggest myth floating around the Winnipeg Jets.

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08-05-2012, 03:23 PM
  #41
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MadMen88 View Post
You're right. Ondrej Pavelec really didn't play as good as we think he did Winnipeg. You hear that? Ondrej's record was 15-25...15 and 25!!!! He played HORRIBLE!! Give me a break. Ondrej Pavelec was sensational last year, and if he plays the same way with a better d-zone, he'll be even better. This is far from being a myth, let alone the biggest myth floating around the Winnipeg Jets.
I was saying he would rank around 15-25 in the league among starting goalies

Pavelec was far from sensational. Sensational goalies don't rank 37th in the league in SVP among goalies playing more than 20gp. Hell even with all the talk of how bad Phily's D is and how bad Bryzgalov's game was, he was still better than Pavelec in SVP. Hell, behind the worst defense in the NHL, AHLer Curtis Sanford managed a SVP .005 better than Pavs. Pavelec was nowhere close to consistent enough. I know he is the golden boy around here, but how many games did he steal for the team? Maybe a couple at best. He was just average much of the season. He did not lose many games, but he rarely was dominant. Watch Lundqvist, Quick, hell even Luongo how they perform night in, night out, then tell me Pavelec was sensational. If Pavelec is not alot better, the Jets will not improve.

If your not putting up at least a .915 SVP, you are not playing well enough as a starting G, IMO. I know the talk of not all shots being equal, yada yada, but that will even out a lot of the course of the season (not altogether obviously), but .915 is the absolute minimum you should have, even in the worst scenario.


Last edited by Holden Caulfield: 08-05-2012 at 03:32 PM.
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Old
08-05-2012, 03:25 PM
  #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MadMen88 View Post
You're right. Ondrej Pavelec really didn't play as good as we think he did Winnipeg. You hear that? Ondrej's record was 15-25...15 and 25!!!! He played HORRIBLE!! Give me a break. Ondrej Pavelec was sensational last year, and if he plays the same way with a better d-zone, he'll be even better. This is far from being a myth, let alone the biggest myth floating around the Winnipeg Jets.
The way you word things makes it difficult to argue unless the other person dissects what you said. I will attempt…
You’re right, with better D coverage Pavs would have done better, as would every other goalie in the universe. The question at hand should be:
“Pav’s was statistically the 27th worst starter in the NHL (looking at 32 goalies with 40+ games played). Should the bulk of the blame be on him or defence?”
This is not a question of Pavs raw skill or potential but who was to blame for it.

Although I haven't completed it yet, I have a large project that will show many reasons why there really wasn't a bad D-zone coverage.
Here is a teaser:

Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Now for Pavelec
I'll do some more in-depth stuff here later but here's some surface level stuff.

MonthSV% GP Wins Loses OTL Win% SA SA/gm
October 0.885 09 03 04 01 33.33 252 28.00
November 0.904 12 04 05 03 33.33 375 31.25
December 0.939 11 07 03 01 63.64 343 31.18
January 0.908 10 03 05 01 30.00 273 27.30
February 0.903 11 06 04 01 54.55 339 30.82
March 0.900 13 05 07 01 38.46 391 30.08
April 0.873 02 01 00 01 50.00 63 31.50
LeagueAvg 0.914 58 28.24
NB: League Average is from combination of the 32 goalies to play 40+ games

Placement in League Relative to the 32 40+ GP Goalies
NameSV% GP SA/60 GA/60
Pavs 27 07 07 08

Few things I noted from looking over the last two seasons:
  • Pavelec doesn't historically do as well on back-to-backs
  • Pavelec doesn't historically do as well on weekends
  • Pavelec doesn't historically do as well on away games
  • Our great December record appears to be strongly influenced by Pavelec playing superiorly for a month

Some things to keep in mind when saying it was the Jets defense that caused his low SV%:
  • Pavelec posted stronger numbers his last season as a Tharshers under a team that was weaker
  • That Thrashers team top 6 defense for TOI was the same as last years but still the Jets team had lower shots against (improvement from one of the worst teams in the league)
  • That top6 still had pinch crazy Byfuglien as their number 1 TOI guy (who if anything was more wild in a run&gun system)
  • Noel played under a more defensive system than Pavelec had played before
  • It's also been shown that the location of shots Pav recieves from doesn't varry from the normal
  • There are worse teams than us with easily arguable worse defence that have goalies that posted way superior SV%

So, if the Jets did better and Pavs' stats are worse can they be entirely the defence fault?? In my opinion I think that GST playing 3rd line shutdown, lack of depth and playing Pavs more also had parts to play. But let's be honest, he isn't elite talent yet... We all hope he can be though. The goalie guild says this:


Last edited by garret9: 08-05-2012 at 03:33 PM.
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Old
08-05-2012, 03:28 PM
  #43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MadMen88 View Post
You're right. Ondrej Pavelec really didn't play as good as we think he did Winnipeg. You hear that? Ondrej's record was 15-25...15 and 25!!!! He played HORRIBLE!! Give me a break. Ondrej Pavelec was sensational last year, and if he plays the same way with a better d-zone, he'll be even better. This is far from being a myth, let alone the biggest myth floating around the Winnipeg Jets.
I'll preface this post by saying: I'm a huge Pavelec fan, and don't think he played quite as poorly as his SV% would indicate.

Now having said that, I thought Ondrej was mediocre right up until mid-November, and then tailed off quite noticeable around mid-March. Whatever explanations you want to come up with for those drops in play, fact is he needs to avoid those if he's going to be considered an elite netminder.

I have huge confidence in Ondrej and his ability, and think he has what it takes to be one of the best at his position. Right now though, I don't think you can make much of a case that he's in the upper echelon of NHL starters (or like Holden put it, he's somewhere between 15th and 25th best in the league). There's definitely room for improvement.

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08-06-2012, 09:46 PM
  #44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski View Post
I'll preface this post by saying: I'm a huge Pavelec fan, and don't think he played quite as poorly as his SV% would indicate.

Now having said that, I thought Ondrej was mediocre right up until mid-November, and then tailed off quite noticeable around mid-March. Whatever explanations you want to come up with for those drops in play, fact is he needs to avoid those if he's going to be considered an elite netminder.

I have huge confidence in Ondrej and his ability, and think he has what it takes to be one of the best at his position. Right now though, I don't think you can make much of a case that he's in the upper echelon of NHL starters (or like Holden put it, he's somewhere between 15th and 25th best in the league). There's definitely room for improvement.
yea this is close to how i feel on it, Pavs is 15th to 25th best goalie in the NHL currently. I am torn on Pavs, I also believe he could be really good one day but there is the nagging work ethic issue that i hear about that sets me back. I love how cool he is on the ice during games and he doesn't seem like a head case. Also he stood on his head in a playoff run for Chicago in the AHL and carried them to a cup and I love hearing that a guy is a money player (and I don't care what league its in).

I think having a serious 3rd line this year and having most of our forwards on the right seat of the bus could lead to better team defence which "could" help Pavs.

The way I rest easier is by telling myself he is young and if TNSE signed him to a sizeable 4 year deal so they must not be too worried about his drive to improve and become "the goalie" who we can compete for a cup with. On the topic of a cup one weird thing is despite his consistency issues i have no problem visualizing him getting really hot and carrying us on a playoff run at some point. I don't know why but I think he is that type of guy.

How Pavs rolls this year will probably be the #1 factor in whether we end up in or out of the playoffs. He has to improve and I believe he will.


Last edited by ps241: 08-06-2012 at 11:01 PM.
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Old
08-06-2012, 10:10 PM
  #45
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Pavs was very good at times last year, and other nights, seemed to fight the puck a lot.

Consistency is an issue, no doubt. But if he can put together a few months like December last year, i don't think we'll have much to complain about. Still some work to do, and further mental and physical development, but he has the potential to be a top 10 goalie in the league. Not there yet, but has the potential.

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08-07-2012, 03:45 AM
  #46
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
The way you word things makes it difficult to argue unless the other person dissects what you said. I will attempt…
You’re right, with better D coverage Pavs would have done better, as would every other goalie in the universe. The question at hand should be:
“Pav’s was statistically the 27th worst starter in the NHL (looking at 32 goalies with 40+ games played). Should the bulk of the blame be on him or defence?”
This is not a question of Pavs raw skill or potential but who was to blame for it.

Although I haven't completed it yet, I have a large project that will show many reasons why there really wasn't a bad D-zone coverage.
Here is a teaser:
One thing that your work(which is cool btw) doesn't cover is how many times there is a legit scoring chance that wasn't broken up by our D. It's all well and good to say that our D coverage is alright, but your not looking at the times he was scored on a breakaway or a 2 on 1, 3 on 1. I'd be very interested in seeing on how many of his goals against that the D core was caught napping? Or when it was a goal earned by heavy pressure that our D couldn't clear.

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08-07-2012, 04:12 AM
  #47
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One thing that your work(which is cool btw) doesn't cover is how many times there is a legit scoring chance that wasn't broken up by our D. It's all well and good to say that our D coverage is alright, but your not looking at the times he was scored on a breakaway or a 2 on 1, 3 on 1. I'd be very interested in seeing on how many of his goals against that the D core was caught napping? Or when it was a goal earned by heavy pressure that our D couldn't clear.
I don't know about the number of 2-on-1's and such but what I do know is the concentrations of where shot locations is similar with most goalies in the league... unfortunately that is the closest I can answer that question...

But what I was hinting at is Pavs did worse sv% than the year before when he probably (but not for sure) had less of those D gaffs than the year before since: 1) Buff calmed down a bit and 2) the overall system is more defensive

I can say this for sure though (as a former goalie): one 2-on-1 is one too many, so it's always an area of needed improvement

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