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Stats say Sabres are a playoff team today

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Old
08-02-2012, 10:03 AM
  #26
Jame
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Der Jaeger View Post
I agree that the Sabres could stand pat and be fine, but I don't agree with the argument that they could be Cup contenders.

If the plan is to stand pat, let the youth develop, and work towards 2013, good. If they try to get into the playoffs in an effort to get more experience for said youth, fine. I'm all aboard that plan as well.

But to think that this team is a Cup contender? Virtually all of the youth would need to develop into the best versions of themselves, now. Ennis would need to be Briere, Hodgson would need to be Drury, Foligno would need to be Neal, Myers would need to be Pronger, etc. Then, I buy that.

But all of that's not happening in 2012-2013. I think 6th place is the absolute high end of expectations, and 11th is the low end (I think Buffalo will be better than Toronto, Montreal, Tampa Bay, and the Islanders). I don't see Buffalo outplacing Boston, the Rangers, Philadelphia, or the Devils... and some team is going to win the Southeast.
i bet the fans of those teams expect to be better then Buffalo.

The truth is... that's the group of teams Buffalo is closer to (in terms of talent).

I think Jersey slips this year (losing Parise, Brodeur regular season declining, etc)

Ottawa will shrink back into the group you mentioned

Florida is a question mark

So, I guess I expect (Bos, NYR, Pit, Phi, Was) to all be playoff teams. That leaves 3 spots for..in no order (Ottawa, NJ, Florida, Carolina, Buffalo, Toronto, Winnipeg, NYI, Tampa, Montreal)

So yea... I agree with those who think Buffalo is going to finish between 6th and 13th

I think how the players play and how well Ruff adjusts will have everything to do with the outcome... far more so then the randomness of injuries/excuses

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Old
08-02-2012, 10:12 AM
  #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jame View Post
I think how the players play and how well Ruff adjusts will have everything to do with the outcome... far more so then the randomness of injuries/excuses
Somehow, that's lost on so many.

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Old
08-02-2012, 10:14 AM
  #28
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I hope that, of we're in 9th next spring, Stats will file an appeal with the NHL to let us in.

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08-02-2012, 10:16 AM
  #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jame View Post
What was LAs record after the coaching change, and then adding more talent?

Are you saying that this past season (the first time a seed lower then 4 has won a cup) is now the standard?




Yea, talent and coaching are totally secondary

St Louis had more man games lost to injury then Buffalo
So did Florida, Philly, Pittsburgh... and they made the playoffs... why? because they are more talented at the top and have better coaching

Injuries is only an excuse for not making the playoffs if you are a bad team
It's one thing to lose depth players for long stretches, it's another thing to lose your key contributors. When you lose your top two defenders, most dynamic forward and your Vezina winning goalie is concussed, it's a little different than losing Marcel Goc and your 5th defenseman for half the season. Pittsburgh is the obvious exception, but only one team has a second center that is the best player in the NHL.

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Old
08-02-2012, 10:19 AM
  #30
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Seems simple enough to me.

2012:
The Sabres had more bad luck than good luck last season.
The Sabres had more injuries than usual.
The Sabres had the most back to back games in the league.

Result:

The Sabres missed the playoffs by 3 points.

2013:
The Sabres luck could easily flip and they find more than an extra 3 points as a result.
The Sabres injuries you can never predict. Most fans I believe would agree that it would be unlike that we have the same or more injuries as last season.
The Sabres back to back games have been cut in half. That alone could get them in the playoffs.

Any of these three could see them get a 8th-7th seed. If all three happen they could challenge for the division. But, that takes significantly more 'ifs'

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Old
08-02-2012, 10:19 AM
  #31
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If Hecht, Boyes, Sekera and Weber were injured all season, injuries wouldn't be a valid point. But when it is your best players, it matters. You can't argue the talent isn't there when your best talents can't play or are completely hindered (Miller).

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Old
08-02-2012, 10:29 AM
  #32
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I see the Sabres as a bubble playoff team. Next year is where it gets interesting though.

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08-02-2012, 11:14 AM
  #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stokes84 View Post
It's one thing to lose depth players for long stretches, it's another thing to lose your key contributors. When you lose your top two defenders, most dynamic forward and your Vezina winning goalie is concussed, it's a little different than losing Marcel Goc and your 5th defenseman for half the season. Pittsburgh is the obvious exception, but only one team has a second center that is the best player in the NHL.
How many games did Roy, Vanek, Pominville, Stafford miss?

The Sabres were a playoff team the season prior.
They didn't have Ehrhoff or Regehr
They were missing Roy for most of the year
Stafford, Pommer, Leopold all missed significant time that year
They even lost Miller for 5 of the last 7 games, where Enroth essentially saved their playoff hopes

This year,
Philly lost their #1 Norris defensemen for the entire season
Briere and Jagr missed a chunk of time
Giroux missed a few weeks
Meszaros and JVR missed big chunks of the season

New Jersey lost big chunks of their blue line for big chunks of the season : Larsson, Greene, Tallinder, Volchenkov


Last edited by Chainshot: 08-02-2012 at 02:01 PM. Reason: Debate post point, not poster. Stop calling people names.
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Old
08-02-2012, 11:16 AM
  #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stokes84 View Post
If Hecht, Boyes, Sekera and Weber were injured all season, injuries wouldn't be a valid point. But when it is your best players, it matters. You can't argue the talent isn't there when your best talents can't play or are completely hindered (Miller).
Why do you hate sekera? Even if you disagree with him being our best D last season you cant deny that the guy we used as our shutdown man wouldve been missed if injured

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08-02-2012, 11:23 AM
  #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheyAreGoodScaryGood View Post
Why do you hate sekera? Even if you disagree with him being our best D last season you cant deny that the guy we used as our shutdown man wouldve been missed if injured
I don't hate him, he just isn't as valuable to our team as other players. Other players can fill his role more easily than he can fill other roles. If Myers or Ehrhoff are forced to play against Crosby, there won't be a significant drop off. If you are forced to ask Sekera to do what they do, the team is in a world of hurt.

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Old
08-02-2012, 11:33 AM
  #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stokes84 View Post
I don't hate him, he just isn't as valuable to our team as other players. Other players can fill his role more easily than he can fill other roles. If Myers or Ehrhoff are forced to play against Crosby, there won't be a significant drop off. If you are forced to ask Sekera to do what they do, the team is in a world of hurt.
Funny, since Myers **** the bed early in the season, was removed from the Shutdown Role, and replaced by Sekera (who went on to have a very good year)

Myers has an "off the charts" ceiling... but he hasn't come close to reaching it, and it could be argued that he has at best had 2 stagnant years of development, and at worst had a year of regression.

Sekera went through the same thing... in 09/10 Sekera regressed heavily, but then took a step forward in 10-11, and showed added growth and depth in ability in 11-12.

It's post like these that show a complete misunderstanding of what was happening last year.

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Old
08-02-2012, 12:00 PM
  #37
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As a 40 year+ die hard Buffalo fan, I have optamizm for the upcoming season. I think over the last part of the season, and this offseason, there has been a conscience decision by coaching/management to change the culture of the team, and some of the stale players. Love them, or hate them, by moving Gaustad and Roy, and not resigning Hecht, there is a definite leadership shift. That is the best news of all, switch it to the young guys, or why the smoke/fire of DR wanting Doan makes sense because he (a guy like him) has been what this team has been missing for 5 years.

I think Pomms and Vanek can be part of a winning team. They are skilled players and would be excellent complimentary players on a contending team. I just don't think they have the "mental" leadership qualities that are needed.

I agree with above posters that injuries played an important part in the team's woes last year but I also think the Lucic Incident had the biggest impact, atleast for a good 25 games last year. I think it was obvious to DR, coaches and FO that it did, which is why we are seeing some of the team leaders from last year traded, and larger roles given to younger guys.

Besides the elusive #1 center, I do not see that much difference (besides confidence) in the Sabres and teams like the Devils. I think they could be a top 8, top 4 team.

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Old
08-02-2012, 12:13 PM
  #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stokes84 View Post
I don't hate him, he just isn't as valuable to our team as other players. Other players can fill his role more easily than he can fill other roles. If Myers or Ehrhoff are forced to play against Crosby, there won't be a significant drop off. If you are forced to ask Sekera to do what they do, the team is in a world of hurt.
Except that Sekera played better competition than both, had more defensive zone starts than both, and drove possession better than both.

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Old
08-02-2012, 12:25 PM
  #39
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I'd bet $100 that the Sabres will make the playoffs.

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08-02-2012, 12:25 PM
  #40
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Well thats it. I said to myself as soon as WGR starts talking about how this team is good enough then the Sabres are done making moves.

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08-02-2012, 12:27 PM
  #41
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Injuries aren't a total excuse for last season. I haven't analyzed other teams' injury situations, but I know Buffalo had multiple, important players out during long stretches. That's harder to deal with than if they are spread out more evenly over the year. Most importantly was Miller having to play a long time with a foggy head. That clearly turned games against Buffalo with early deficits from Nov-Jan. Even if you want to ignore that factor, Buffalo still probably gets in if only BOTH Myers and Ehrhoff didn't go down in the last week.

Injuries matter a tiny bit when good player X has to be replaced with mediocre player Y. They matter more when good players ABCD have to be replaced by mediocre players EFGH. I think they matter, but I don't see them as an excuse, because it's still on the team and players to mitigate injuries by 1) not getting them if possible and 2) having enough depth to not fall apart.

I think the team still could've been alright if not for Miller's recovery time. That's something no team should plan on having to deal with again, so I expect a 6-8 seed even if they generally don't play much better.

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Old
08-02-2012, 12:36 PM
  #42
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i think the altered schedule to remove a lot of the back to back games alone, could help us get an additional 10 pts in the standings.

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08-02-2012, 12:37 PM
  #43
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I don't know if I totally buy the we can't be cup contenders argument. Honestly, if you get in, and your players pick up their play at the right time, you've got a shot.

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08-02-2012, 12:46 PM
  #44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beechsack View Post
I'm sorry. How exactly does YOUR personal opinions about the coach translate to actual wins and losses?
I probably shouldn't have bothered with the snippet about Ruff - as, even though I dislike him, his presence hasn't stopped them from making the playoffs in the past. But even with him out of the picture, I still don't like the roster. To be clear, I'm excited about what the Sabres are building for the future with the young talent they've collected. Now? Not so much. If the 2012-13 team proves me wrong, great.


Last edited by Chainshot: 08-02-2012 at 02:02 PM.
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08-02-2012, 01:04 PM
  #45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jame View Post
How many games did Roy, Vanek, Pominville, Stafford miss?

The Sabres were a playoff team the season prior.
They didn't have Ehrhoff or Regehr
They were missing Roy for most of the year
Stafford, Pommer, Leopold all missed significant time that year
They even lost Miller for 5 of the last 7 games, where Enroth essentially saved their playoff hopes

This year,
Philly lost their #1 Norris defensemen for the entire season
Briere and Jagr missed a chunk of time
Giroux missed a few weeks

Meszaros and JVR missed big chunks of the season

New Jersey lost big chunks of their blue line for big chunks of the season : Larsson, Greene, Tallinder, Volchenkov

Briere missed 12 games. Jagr missed 8. Giroux, 5. I'd have to dig further to see if any of these happened at the same time.

Let's look at the Flyers who missed 10 games or more. 9 players. 4 significant.

Chris Pronger (73) : Huge loss. Superstar player.
Blair Betts (85) : Not a terrible loss. 10-11 minutes a night, 4th liner.
Andreas Nodl (10) : Played in 12 games, injured for 10. Waived mid year.
Andreas Lilja (17) : 7th defenseman.
Erik Gustafsson (21) : Only played 30 games. 6th/7th defenseman.
James Van Riemsdyk (41) : Tough loss. On pace for around 50 points had he not been hurt.
Danny Briere (12) : Dirty Danny. 'Nuff Said.
Tom Sestito (28) : Spent more time with the Phantoms.
Andrej Meszaros (22) : Tough defensive loss, was giving them 20 minutes a night.

Out of that whole list, only Pronger and JVR are massive holes to fill for a huge chunk of the year. Briere is rough, but 12 games over a season isn't that huge a problem. Meszaros is tougher with Pronger gone, but still not a season breaker.

The Flyers are listed as losing 367 man games to injury, but Blair Betts alone is 85 of them.

I believe that the Sabres were more affected by injury than the Flyers were, and that's as objective an opinion as I'm capable of providing.


Last edited by Chainshot: 08-02-2012 at 02:02 PM.
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Old
08-02-2012, 01:12 PM
  #46
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Roster is OK. Next year is the year the team Can blossom. Talent should be there.

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08-02-2012, 01:18 PM
  #47
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The stats said they were a playoff team going into last year too. That said, I'll be happy if at least the start of a culture change is evident in their play next year. Last year they were absolutely infuriating to watch until February.

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08-02-2012, 01:38 PM
  #48
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The roster had a bunch of head cases. I'm 100% behind the concept that Lucic ruined the season because we had a bunch of mental midgit leaders on the team.

First 15 games of the season: 10-5
Nov 12, 2011 Lucic Incident
Next 35 games: 11-19-5
35 games takes in the rest of Nov and the entire months of Dec & Jan.
Next 32 games until the end of the season: 19-7-6

And if you just want the immediate 15 games after the incident: 5-7-3

We missed the playoffs by 3 points. We were 10-5 in the first 15, and 19-7-6 to end the season. The Lucic Incident crippled the team mentally. Every team has injuries, again last year's team was just a bunch of mental midgets. I'd love to see one veteran, leader, who can still put up over 50 points and play a two way game and I don't see much of a difference between us and the rest of the league.

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08-02-2012, 01:58 PM
  #49
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beechsack View Post
Briere missed 12 games. Jagr missed 8. Giroux, 5. I'd have to dig further to see if any of these happened at the same time.

Let's look at the Flyers who missed 10 games or more. 9 players. 4 significant.

Chris Pronger (73) : Huge loss. Superstar player.
Blair Betts (85) : Not a terrible loss. 10-11 minutes a night, 4th liner.
Andreas Nodl (10) : Played in 12 games, injured for 10. Waived mid year.
Andreas Lilja (17) : 7th defenseman.
Erik Gustafsson (21) : Only played 30 games. 6th/7th defenseman.
James Van Riemsdyk (41) : Tough loss. On pace for around 50 points had he not been hurt.
Danny Briere (12) : Dirty Danny. 'Nuff Said.
Tom Sestito (28) : Spent more time with the Phantoms.
Andrej Meszaros (22) : Tough defensive loss, was giving them 20 minutes a night.

Out of that whole list, only Pronger and JVR are massive holes to fill for a huge chunk of the year. Briere is rough, but 12 games over a season isn't that huge a problem. Meszaros is tougher with Pronger gone, but still not a season breaker.

The Flyers are listed as losing 367 man games to injury, but Blair Betts alone is 85 of them.

I believe that the Sabres were more affected by injury than the Flyers were, and that's as objective an opinion as I'm capable of providing.

1. Myers 23 games vs Pronger 73 games (Phi)
2. Ennis 34 vs JVR 41 (Push?)
3. Sekera 16 vs Meszaros 22(Push?)
4. Miller 8 vs Bryzgalov 6 (Push?)
5. Leino 11 vs Briere 12 (Phi)
6. Ehrhoff 16 vs Timmonen 7 (Buf)
7. Giroux/Schenn/Couturier/Jagr 27 vs Vanek/Roy/Boyes/Goose 27 (PHI)

I don't know man....
I think Buffalo fans are accustomed to making excuses

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08-02-2012, 02:02 PM
  #50
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SabresFanNorthPortFL View Post
The roster had a bunch of head cases. I'm 100% behind the concept that Lucic ruined the season because we had a bunch of mental midgit leaders on the team.

First 15 games of the season: 10-5
Nov 12, 2011 Lucic Incident
Next 35 games: 11-19-5
35 games takes in the rest of Nov and the entire months of Dec & Jan.
Next 32 games until the end of the season: 19-7-6

And if you just want the immediate 15 games after the incident: 5-7-3

We missed the playoffs by 3 points. We were 10-5 in the first 15, and 19-7-6 to end the season. The Lucic Incident crippled the team mentally. Every team has injuries, again last year's team was just a bunch of mental midgets. I'd love to see one veteran, leader, who can still put up over 50 points and play a two way game and I don't see much of a difference between us and the rest of the league.
I completely agree

The character/mentality of the team is what leads to it's implosion every year... not injuries

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