EJ has regressed the last three years statistically. What makes anyone so sure he will turn it all around?
I personally thought Bouwmeester at one point was going to be one of the best defensemen in the entire NHL, and look what happened to HIM in a different market in Calgary.
People have a go at me, because I can't, don't and won't "project" where a player or the team will be in a few years. I just won't, because so much can happen in 12 months for a hockey team - see this years Blues, and Panthers as examples.
People telling me we difinitively are "building" into this fantastic contender is drawing a long bow in my opinion.
EJ needs to focus on becoming an NHL top 4 defensemen, before he's considered a true number one D-man. Yeah, in Colorado he's "our" true number one, but that isn't saying much to be fair - which is my entire point in this thread.
The Blues didn't turn things around in one year. They began rebuilding in 2006, 3 years earlier than us.
EJ is a top 4 defenseman. Probably a top pairing defenseman on most teams.
Again, I've given you the stats. If even 50% of their picks in the Top 50 would have been spent on d-men, I'd probably be a little more frustrated but that's not the case...not even close.
Not at all. I think we're basically saying the same thing. Personally, I'd rank the Avs defense at around #18 league wide at the most optimistic and around #24 on the other end of the spectrum. Somewhere around there.
I think these teams have a worst D group than the Avs:
The following teams are around the same range as the Avs:
(or at least, it can be debated)
- Minnesota (yeah, they got Suter but beyond him, Tom Gilbert? Ouch) [soon to change though with Brodin and Dumba]
- Carolina (Faulk is up and coming though)
- Montreal (with Markov, they are a lot better but he's always injured)
- Toronto (Phaneuf, Liles had a rough 2nd half / Rielly is going to be awesome though)
That's the way I see it +/- a few spots. I don't think you can make a case that we're definitely top 15 going by what we've seen last season.
Which of these respective top units will achieve the most production, and be statistically better?
The Blues didn't turn things around in one year. They began rebuilding in 2006, 3 years earlier than us.
EJ is a top 4 defenseman. Probably a top pairing defenseman on most teams.
With all due respect:
Erik Johnson:
Season 2010/2011 - 77 games, 29 points, minus 13
Season 2011/2012 - 73 games, 26 points, minus 7
Playoff experience: 0
disagrees with that statement.
Remember, no-one is discounting the fact that he MAY live up to that number one overall potential. Personally, you look at the other young kids being selected early like Myers, Hedman & Larsson, and personally, I believe they are over taking EJ as far as quality goes....ALREADY, and guess what, they are young too, so some young guys CAN do it contrary to public belief.
EDIT: And I find it surpising that part of their rebuild included trading Johnson away. It was only when he left, they started living up to their roster quality.
EJ has regressed the last three years statistically. What makes anyone so sure he will turn it all around?
Because stats aren't everything, and I think most Avs fans would agree he improved a tremendous amount defensively, which is what the biggest strength in his game should be.
But if stats were everything then you can all but guarantee EJ a Norris at some point because as it stands now at this point in his career he is producing more than the following players, who he shares a similar stature and tool set to:
Weber is the only one who was statistically better than EJ at this point in his career. Does this means EJ becomes as good as those other players? Nope. Does it mean there is a reason fans haven't written off his potential yet? It should. There is no reason to think he cannot hit 39 points again or even beat that, especially with the talent around him becoming better.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Drizzt1
EJ needs to focus on becoming an NHL top 4 defensemen, before he's considered a true number one D-man. Yeah, in Colorado he's "our" true number one, but that isn't saying much to be fair - which is my entire point in this thread.
Are you saying he needs to be in the top 5 best defencemen in the NHL, or that he needs to develop into a top 4 defencemen? Seriously, if he was playing as much under Sacco (24 mins+) as he was the first 20 games here and almost that much before his injury this last season, people would consider him a #1 defenceman.
If you think he isn't a top 4 defenceman at the moment, then I really don't know if there is any point in discussing this.
Larsson is already better than Erik Johnson? You must be joking, right?
Statistics mean nothing when discussing EJ's performance on the ice last season. He had an admittedly down year offensively, just like the rest of the Avs.
As for the comparison, you forgot the other 14 players on each team. We have the superior depth to the Islanders, which is what makes us better. Perhaps one day that will change as they have such a strong prospect pool, but for now we're the superior team.
Larsson is already better than Erik Johnson? You must be joking, right?
Statistics mean nothing when discussing EJ's performance on the ice last season. He had an admittedly down year offensively, just like the rest of the Avs.
As for the comparison, you forgot the other 14 players on each team. We have the superior depth to the Islanders, which is what makes us better. Perhaps one day that will change as they have such a strong prospect pool, but for now we're the superior team.
Ok, poorly worded. At present I wouldn't say Larsson is better than Johnson. I should have said Larsson's respective development status is improving at a faster rate than Johnson.
With all due respect:
Erik Johnson:
Season 2010/2011 - 77 games, 29 points, minus 13
Season 2011/2012 - 73 games, 26 points, minus 7
Playoff experience: 0
disagrees with that statement.
Remember, no-one is discounting the fact that he MAY live up to that number one overall potential. Personally, you look at the other young kids being selected early like Myers, Hedman & Larsson, and personally, I believe they are over taking EJ as far as quality goes....ALREADY, and guess what, they are young too, so some young guys CAN do it contrary to public belief.
Hey nice, you posted his point totals and +/- with no context, that sure convinced me that he's not even a top 4 dman in the NHL!!! That really helps me evaluate the level of his defensive play.
Take a look around the league - yes some teams have an embarrassment of riches but on the majority of teams EJ would be a number a #2 or #3. We need him to be even better than that but that's another story.
What exactly is that you think Larsson did last season? Be a liability on the bottom pair? He's going to be a great player but its going to take time and he's going to have serious growing pains. Myers yes will be better than EJ - you also could never have acquired him (and a first) for Stewart and Shattenkirk. Same goes for Victor Hedman so close to his draft, not that I'm convinced that he's any better than EJ.
Ok, poorly worded. At present I wouldn't say Larsson is better than Johnson. I should have said Larsson's respective development status is improving at a faster rate than Johnson.
With all due respect:
Erik Johnson:
Season 2010/2011 - 77 games, 29 points, minus 13
Season 2011/2012 - 73 games, 26 points, minus 7
Playoff experience: 0
disagrees with that statement.
Remember, no-one is discounting the fact that he MAY live up to that number one overall potential. Personally, you look at the other young kids being selected early like Myers, Hedman & Larsson, and personally, I believe they are over taking EJ as far as quality goes....ALREADY, and guess what, they are young too, so some young guys CAN do it contrary to public belief.
EDIT: And I find it surpising that part of their rebuild included trading Johnson away. It was only when he left, they started living up to their roster quality.
All right. You are driving me nuts. What is your point? What would you do differently?
Because stats aren't everything, and I think most Avs fans would agree he improved a tremendous amount defensively, which is what the biggest strength in his game should be.
But if stats were everything then you can all but guarantee EJ a Norris at some point because as it stands now at this point in his career he is producing more than the following players, who he shares a similar stature and tool set to:
Weber is the only one who was statistically better than EJ at this point in his career. Does this means EJ becomes as good as those other players? Nope. Does it mean there is a reason fans haven't written off his potential yet? It should. There is no reason to think he cannot hit 39 points again or even beat that, especially with the talent around him becoming better.
Are you saying he needs to be in the top 5 best defencemen in the NHL, or that he needs to develop into a top 4 defencemen? Seriously, if he was playing as much under Sacco (24 mins+) as he was the first 20 games here and almost that much before his injury this last season, people would consider him a #1 defenceman.
If you think he isn't a top 4 defenceman at the moment, then I really don't know if there is any point in discussing this.
"especially with the talent around him becoming better"
Really? Haven't we all just been through that? O'Byrne, O'Brien, Hejda, Wilson, Hunwick and Zanon? Come on mate, are you trying to pull my leg here?
And no, I'm saying he needs to focus on doing his job, and that's to be a top 4 guy. As I stated, he's clearly our number one, but what I am also saying, is that doesn't say much, because our defensive unit is bleh.
Of coarse people are going to defend our current best defensemen. Imagine we lost him - and I do fear an injury to him. Projecting is great, but it's hit and miss.
He had an ordinary year, and yeah, minus 7 plus/minus isn't too bad against opposition top lines, but in perspective, Travis Hamonic got plus 6 for the Islanders, and 24 points to boot.
Number one overall, number one D-men can't afford to have "off years". He needs to focus, yes, on becoming a consistent number one through four D-man for Colorado.
All right. You are driving me nuts. What is your point? What would you do differently?
Have you read the last three pages? I made a statement about our defense, and people all debated the logic. Surely that's not that hard to work out?
Differently? I have stated where I believe we have made mistakes. Johnson can't carry our defense on his back solely.
The problem is he has mediocrity around him. We are lucky we have Varlamov / Giguere to help them (I have absolutely zero concerns about our goalie situation).
Hey nice, you posted his point totals and +/- with no context, that sure convinced me that he's not even a top 4 dman in the NHL!!! That really helps me evaluate the level of his defensive play.
Take a look around the league - yes some teams have an embarrassment of riches but on the majority of teams EJ would be a number a #2 or #3. We need him to be even better than that but that's another story.
What exactly is that you think Larsson did last season? Be a liability on the bottom pair? He's going to be a great player but its going to take time and he's going to have serious growing pains. Myers yes will be better than EJ - you also could never have acquired him (and a first) for Stewart and Shattenkirk. Same goes for Victor Hedman so close to his draft, not that I'm convinced that he's any better than EJ.
Agree.
"On the majority of teams EJ would be a number a #2 or #3.".
But that's not good enough as it stands for a first overall selected defensemen who cost a team Shattenkirk and Stewart.
For him to continue to progress, I believe a player like Liles would have done him wonders to be paired with longer term.
Just some better quality, because as I have been stating, our defense sucks, and that's putting it as nicely as I can.
"especially with the talent around him becoming better"
Really? Haven't we all just been through that? O'Byrne, O'Brien, Hejda, Wilson, Hunwick and Zanon? Come on mate, are you trying to pull my leg here?
Fair enough, that is definitely a down fall of the roster. However, with the forward group getting better, it greatly increases his chances of having his production increase. Add McGinn, Parenteau, and Downie for a whole year and take out Winnik, Kobasew, and whoever else was thrown out there and no doubt the Avs will score more. But yes, EJ is definitely saddled with having one of the least talented defensive groups in the league surrounding him.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Drizzt1
And no, I'm saying he needs to focus on doing his job, and that's to be a top 4 guy. As I stated, he's clearly our number one, but what I am also saying, is that doesn't say much, because our defensive unit is bleh.
Okay, that makes more sense. I would argue he needs to focus on being a #1/#2 defenceman though. As it stands right now, he is a good top 4 option, even when he is not on his A game.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Drizzt1
Number one overall, number one D-men can't afford to have "off years". He needs to focus, yes, on becoming a consistent number one through four D-man for Colorado.
This is true too. However, he isn't in the peak of his career yet. He is still young and improving and so I don't think we will see the consistency of a top-10 defenceman in the NHL for at least another couple years. Fact is, he has all the tools to be a top defenceman in the NHL. We've seen it when he plays 28 minutes in a game, or when he takes it end to end at will and sets up a goal. On the flip side, we've seen him go -4 in 20 minutes of ice time. No doubt the Avs need the better EJ to show up, but to think the guy who can be a corner stone of a franchise is disappearing just because his point totals aren't through the roof yet seems a little premature.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Drizzt1
Agree.
"On the majority of teams EJ would be a number a #2 or #3.".
But that's not good enough as it stands for a first overall selected defensemen who cost a team Shattenkirk and Stewart.
For him to continue to progress, I believe a player like Liles would have done him wonders to be paired with longer term.
Just some better quality, because as I have been stating, our defense sucks, and that's putting it as nicely as I can.
I'd agree with all this, especially the Avs needing a Liles type to come and help in on the Powerplay.
"On the majority of teams EJ would be a number a #2 or #3.".
But that's not good enough as it stands for a first overall selected defensemen who cost a team Shattenkirk and Stewart.
For him to continue to progress, I believe a player like Liles would have done him wonders to be paired with longer term.
Just some better quality, because as I have been stating, our defense sucks, and that's putting it as nicely as I can.
Try not to judge EJ as a 1st overall because that's not the price we paid for him.
You would never get a team to trade you 1st and 11th overall for Stewart and Shattenkirk. Nor could you expect to get a #1 that lives up to #1 expectations for that price, or even a top 5 pick that lives up to expectations. Do you think you could get Doughty + 11th for Stewart and Shattenkirk? How about Stamkos? Tavares? Ekman Larsson? Pietrangelo?
It's never going to happen. Judge EJ as a developing young dman on our team, no more no less.
Drizzt, if you have such a problem with our current team in hand. What is your solution?
Ok, first up, let me just say I think we are getting off track with my original statement, and focusing in the wrong area. I'm more than happy with EJ (he COULD play better), but it's his support cast that is letting the team down, and I repeat, our defense is one of the worst in the entire NHL.
What's my solution?
Well, it would have been to keep Liles who was let go for nothing. Heck, would Liles + Stewart have worked for Johnson?
Honestly, I think Sherman has created a train wreck on defense. I wouldn't have re-signed Hunwick. I wouldn't have acquired Zanon. I wouldn't have provided horrible Hejda with that woeful contract.
That would have left us Johnson, O'Brien, O'Byrne & Wilson to build around. I would have maybe acquired a puck moving D-man (noting Liles should have been that guy).
Going forward though? Don't know. We are too entrenched in poor contracts, with poor quality players "on defense".
I'm satisfied with our offense (could have used one sniper like Semin), so we are short one goal scorer in my opinion, and I'm exceptionally pleased with our goalie situation.
Like I say above, I think we are stuck on defense. I think there are a few contracts opposition GM's wouldn't touch with a barge-pole (Hejda for example).
To answer - no idea lonewolf - but it is, what it is, and I stand by my comments, they are an ordinary bunch, that opposition players will look forward to playing through.
Ok, first up, let me just say I think we are getting off track with my original statement, and focusing in the wrong area. I'm more than happy with EJ (he COULD play better), but it's his support cast that is letting the team down, and I repeat, our defense is one of the worst in the entire NHL.
What's my solution?
Well, it would have been to keep Liles who was let go for nothing. Heck, would Liles + Stewart have worked for Johnson?
Honestly, I think Sherman has created a train wreck on defense. I wouldn't have re-signed Hunwick. I wouldn't have acquired Zanon. I wouldn't have provided horrible Hejda with that woeful contract.
That would have left us Johnson, O'Brien, O'Byrne & Wilson to build around. I would have maybe acquired a puck moving D-man (noting Liles should have been that guy).
Going forward though? Don't know. We are too entrenched in poor contracts, with poor quality players "on defense".
I'm satisfied with our offense (could have used one sniper like Semin), so we are short one goal scorer in my opinion, and I'm exceptionally pleased with our goalie situation.
Like I say above, I think we are stuck on defense. I think there are a few contracts opposition GM's wouldn't touch with a barge-pole (Hejda for example).
To answer - no idea lonewolf - but it is, what it is, and I stand by my comments, they are an ordinary bunch, that opposition players will look forward to playing through.
How the hell is Hejda on a bad contract? Terms a little long, but the money is pretty standard for today's NHL.
So why are you so feverishly opposed to our team if you can't provide your own solution?Accept the team for what it is and take the positives with the negatives. Almost every Avs fan would have liked to of kept Liles, I personally wanted to keep Hannan as well. But we didn't, so moving forward we can only work with what we DO have.
Hunwick ws serviceable for our team, serving as a decent #7 that infused a puck moving element that we needed when Elliott ran out of steam. Zanon is a decent #6 that will infuse a defensive, shot blocking element onto our team when/if we need it. O'Brien served as a solid #4/5 on the team and O'Byrne is clearly a strong #4 defensive defender that improves our PK significantly.
Wilson, when not concussed, provides good #3/4 play. Hejda and EJ were the most physical defenders on our team last season, Hejda throwing hipchecks infrequently. He isn't terrible and provides what would be a nice complimentary defensive game for a rookie like Elliott if Sacco used him properly.
Ok, first up, let me just say I think we are getting off track with my original statement, and focusing in the wrong area. I'm more than happy with EJ (he COULD play better), but it's his support cast that is letting the team down, and I repeat, our defense is one of the worst in the entire NHL.
What's my solution?
Well, it would have been to keep Liles who was let go for nothing. Heck, would Liles + Stewart have worked for Johnson?
Honestly, I think Sherman has created a train wreck on defense. I wouldn't have re-signed Hunwick. I wouldn't have acquired Zanon. I wouldn't have provided horrible Hejda with that woeful contract.
That would have left us Johnson, O'Brien, O'Byrne & Wilson to build around. I would have maybe acquired a puck moving D-man (noting Liles should have been that guy).
Going forward though? Don't know. We are too entrenched in poor contracts, with poor quality players "on defense".
I'm satisfied with our offense (could have used one sniper like Semin), so we are short one goal scorer in my opinion, and I'm exceptionally pleased with our goalie situation.
Like I say above, I think we are stuck on defense. I think there are a few contracts opposition GM's wouldn't touch with a barge-pole (Hejda for example).
To answer - no idea lonewolf - but it is, what it is, and I stand by my comments, they are an ordinary bunch, that opposition players will look forward to playing through.
Armstrong demanded Shatty. Without him there wouldn't have been a deal. Keeping Liles would've been a bit more ideal, but he wasn't in our long term plan. My guess is they decided that Liles isn't getting any better, the team won't be a contender in his prime, might as well take a gamble with a young guy like Hunwick.
Wilson, Obryne, Zanon, and Hedja all would be easy to unload. We might not get ideal value, but if a contender was looking for a depth defenseman, they would be more than willing to give up a low draft pick.
Well, it would have been to keep Liles who was let go for nothing. Heck, would Liles + Stewart have worked for Johnson?
No, Liles and Stewart isn't close to the same value as Stewart + Shattenkirk. Age/potential, contract length, number of years of high level play remaining, etc.
Quote:
Honestly, I think Sherman has created a train wreck on defense. I wouldn't have re-signed Hunwick. I wouldn't have acquired Zanon. I wouldn't have provided horrible Hejda with that woeful contract.
That would have left us Johnson, O'Brien, O'Byrne & Wilson to build around. I would have maybe acquired a puck moving D-man (noting Liles should have been that guy).
I agree that Sherman got poor value for Liles and that we could use him right now. It's been one of the few mistakes of the rebuild. But keep in mind Liles was used to generate an asset for the Varlamov trade. I wish they had obtained a second some other way but clearly the Avs didn't want to go into the 2012 draft with no first or second and Washington probably wasn't willing to make the trade without having the option of having a 2012 pick (vs. our 2013 second).
Now that he's gone, there hasn't been an opportunity to pick up a suitable puck mover. Our options were drastically overpaying for an average guy like Carle or continuing to force young prospects into roles they're not ready for.
Quote:
Going forward though? Don't know. We are too entrenched in poor contracts, with poor quality players "on defense".
I'm satisfied with our offense (could have used one sniper like Semin), so we are short one goal scorer in my opinion, and I'm exceptionally pleased with our goalie situation.
If we're entrenched in bad contracts then the rest of the league is screwed.
Quote:
Like I say above, I think we are stuck on defense. I think there are a few contracts opposition GM's wouldn't touch with a barge-pole (Hejda for example).
Hejda's contract has one year on it that he's probably not going to be an effective player, no big deal. The other's are easily movable to a team with injuries at the deadline, not this year, but in years 2 and 3.
Quote:
To answer - no idea lonewolf - but it is, what it is, and I stand by my comments, they are an ordinary bunch, that opposition players will look forward to playing through.
So basically, you don't really have a point or a solution. This will be my last response because this is a pointless discussion.
They MAY have Grabner on the top right wing to be honest. Kid put up 34 goals in 2010/2011 (yeah, I know he regressed to only 20 last season).
Mate, I wouldn't say we are streets ahead of The Islanders like you say.
Uhh...WHAT??
Why are you putting forward lines when analyzing which team has the better Defensive corps?
This isn't about POINTS! It's about stopping the opposition, plain and simple. Which GROUP has the best chance (or worse chance in this case) of doing that. And you're putting up the forward lines of the Islanders and Mark Frikkin' Streit??? The guy is BRUTAL defensively but yeah, on the PP he's dynamite. Again, not what we're talking about here.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Drizzt1
Thanks for the opinion's guys. In a weird kind of way, I was almost hoping to be convinced otherwise regarding our defense, but it has almost solidified my opinion on it.
+ Releasing Liles for a bag of pucks is a mistake. I'm sorry.
+ I wouldn't trade Shattenkirk for Johnson straight up.
+ Leopold for Nycholat/Wilson/2nd after what we gave up to get him was a mistake.
+ I have no doubts Stewart would have excelled if he remained with us
+ We still could have acquired O'Brien
+ The trade for Hunwick was terrible, and I thought Cohen showed plenty when give an opportunity + Should have kept Hannan - we gave him away for nothing considering where Flash is now
Quote:
Originally Posted by Drizzt1
EJ has regressed the last three years statistically. What makes anyone so sure he will turn it all around?
I personally thought Bouwmeester at one point was going to be one of the best defensemen in the entire NHL, and look what happened to HIM in a different market in Calgary.
People have a go at me, because I can't, don't and won't "project" where a player or the team will be in a few years. I just won't, because so much can happen in 12 months for a hockey team - see this years Blues, and Panthers as examples.
People telling me we difinitively are "building" into this fantastic contender is drawing a long bow in my opinion.
EJ needs to focus on becoming an NHL top 4 defensemen, before he's considered a true number one D-man. Yeah, in Colorado he's "our" true number one, but that isn't saying much to be fair - which is my entire point in this thread.
So people telling you that our young core that is average aged around 22-24 years old is going to get better is 'drawing a long bow' but you can make statements like 'I just know Chris Stewart would have kept producing if he had stayed with the Avs' isn't??
Based on his struggles in St-Louis, he's got some fundamental issues going on that clearly affect his work ethic. The PROOF is that he was in Hitchcock's doghouse for most of the year last year. Nah, we can't use that as an argument, that would make too much sense.
Let's ALSO forget the fact that by trading Stewart & Shattenkirk made us a WORSE team in the short-term, in a lost season that enabled us to grab Landeskog, a player who is already superior to Stewart at 19 years of age. (I'm not saying it's right, I'm just saying it happened)
Oh and on the Liles issue, he was headed into the last year of his contract and based on what Wisniewski was able to sign for with the Jackets, Liles was set to earn close to $5M per year. He's good but he's certainly not that good. I think that the Avs only getting a 2nd round pick for him, put his league-wide value in perspective for him and he chose to re-sign long-term at a discount with the Leafs rather than risk 'Scott Hannan-ing it' in free agency.
Most Leaf fans were happy with Liles before the concussion but absolutely APPAULED with his play after he came back from it. So, do you still want him back or do you only want him back without the concussion??
Speaking of Scott Hannan, is he really super awesome or is there an actual REAL reason why he's one of the last players to sign as a UFA 2 years in a row, signing for WELL BELOW the league average each time? You keep dumping on Zanon (probably without ever having seen him play) and yet you promote this guy? You REALLY need to start paying closer attention.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mouse21
drizzt is wrong on most accounts.
Unfortunately, Mouse21 is right.
I and and a few others gave an accurate description of what the future held for this kid even before he was drafted.
I do agree our defence is awful. As AB mentioned, I am not impressed with the Avs development of Dmen either. Bender pointed out the talent that we had to pick from and yes, that will effect how our Dmen turn out. However, I feel that the Avs need to make a focus on developing their dmen. Are they doing that now by keeping them in the AHL and brining them up slowly while signing fringe 4 - 6 dmen to cover their spot? Maybe. Only time will tell.
Regardless the defence has been an issue and 1 of Stastny, Duchene or RoR will ultimately have to be traded for help in the back end. I can understand people wanting 3 scoring lines but I don't see that being that successful with the Avs. call it gas that i need to fart out if you want, but we'll see.
For now there are one too many question marks with this team. I am not sure if we are rebuilding or competing but the management structure and management does need to change before we see any significant progress in my mind.
call it gas that i need to fart out if you want, but we'll see.
