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2011-2012 Statistical Analysis and 2012-2013 Preview

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Old
08-06-2012, 01:38 AM
  #26
garret9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave512 View Post
Thanks for the analysis, garret! I'm a newer hockey fan still trying to get my head around these advanced statistics, so it's great to read things like this. I could ask several questions, but one I have is why do the corsion stats have decimal numbers? I thought Corsi (is that the same as corsion?) was simply plus/minus in all shots, and thus whole numbers. Or is it a ratio? Does 20 shots for, 4 against = +16 or 5.0?
Its per 60 mins stat:
(Shots for)/60 + (goals for)/60 + (shots for that are blocked)/60 - (shots against)/60 - (goals against)/60 - (shot attemps against that are blocked)/60

Forgot to answer your 2nd question...
Some stats will be done as the players stats and some are the team while the player is on the ice (usually designated with an on beside it)...
corsi and corsion are the same stat but for example G and GFon are two different ones... Like for example that I have in a few posts
Wheeler scores goals at ~.5/60 but has a GFon of 1.188/20 when him and Enstrom are on the ice together but that goal may not be from either of them...


Last edited by garret9: 08-07-2012 at 05:43 AM.
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08-06-2012, 01:57 PM
  #27
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I've added some stuff to our "top9" players regarding their production and how they fit in their role because of this. I'm in the middle of doing the same for defence...
Then the Pav's writeup will be much expanded.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BurnabyJo View Post
Fantastic work. What a great read. Thanks garret.

Any chance of you cramming a year's worth of work into what's left of the summer so you can take Oct thru May off and just run stats for us?

Notice how I said "thru May" there? Eternal optimist, that's me.
haha I'll be back at school trying to finish my double honours program and I'll be back in Van which means I'll have to spend quality time with the wifey. Combine that with me watching the Jets win games I won't have time for as serious number crunching as this, but there is a place to find good stuff like this www.arcticicehockey.com


Quote:
Originally Posted by Hollywood3 View Post
I like the effort in this thread, and everybody else who has kicked in ideas about line combos.

But let's see training camp and exhibition games. There are always a few jobs at stake. Some players will be one year better while others will simply be one year older.
True but I did look at history and stats (and a bit of gut feeling) to determine the improvements.
Kane and Ladd will probably swap a bit like they did last year. Antro/Burmi/Wellwood will probably swap around a bit too and you can add Scheifele in the mix if he makes it. The rest of the farm would be fighting for the 4th line wing spots... Plus contracts have a role to play as well.


Last edited by garret9: 08-23-2012 at 02:32 AM.
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08-06-2012, 03:13 PM
  #28
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With and Without Enstrom

Here's some evidence to point out why the Jets are much stronger with Enstrom (as is Byfuglien). The trick is, if the Jets score more goals for and have less goals against when Enstrom is on the ice with the player than what occurs when the player is without Enstrom, then they have a) good chemistry and b) Enstrom helps make them better than someone else would. This is calculated by even strength and not PP or PK.

Looking at goals for and goals against:
NameGFwith/20 GAwith/20 GFwithout/20 GAwithout/20
BYFUGLIEN 0.966 0.833 0.707 0.778
LADD 1.001 0.914 0.694 0.943
WHEELER 1.188 1.024 0.862 0.970
LITTLE 0.962 0.962 0.722 0.962

Looking at CF% (%corsifor where 0.500 means equal possession and equal shots for/against):
NameCF%with CF%without
BYFUGLIEN 0.558 0.481
LADD 0.560 0.514
WHEELER 0.587 0.520
LITTLE 0.573 0.516

Anyone else notice a difference in the GF/GA ratio when our top line is without Enstrom...
Looks like our whole top line had more goals scored while they were on the ice without Enstrom than they scored.

Edit:
Added
Year5v5TOI 5v5pt/60 5v5sh% 5v4TOI 5v4pt/60 5v4sh%
11/12 18.5 1.0 8.40 3.1 3.5 14.9
10/11 17.4 1.0 8.00 4.3 4.2 13.5
09/10 16.4 1.3 9.00 4.5 3.1 12.2
08/09 15.9 0.7 11.5 3.3 2.9 12.2
07/08 14.6 0.6 10.9 5.4 2.5 11.7

I really don't think Enstrom had a really off year, just lost GP and some PPTOI due to injury...


Last edited by garret9: 09-05-2012 at 10:07 AM.
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08-06-2012, 04:59 PM
  #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Its per 60 mins stat:
(Shots for)/60 + (goals for)/60 + (shots for that are blocked)/60 - (shots against)/60 - (goals against)/60 - (shot attemps against that are blocked)/60
Ah, that makes sense. Thanks!

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08-22-2012, 07:59 PM
  #30
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I was working on a comparison of 2010-2011 Thrashers vs 2011-2012 Jets, but with all the Kane talk I thought I just throw out some statistical comparisons that have been brought up in the Kane thread. I will update this as I go.

Evander Kane
YearPOS GP TOI/60 CORSION RelCORSI CORSIQoC RelQoC OZS G/60 A1/60 A2/60 P/60
2011-2012 LW 74 14.74 6.21 8.7 -0.736 -0.028 57.6 1.26 0.55 0.60 2.42
2010-2011 LW 73 14.07 -0.64 0.7 0.344 0.499 54.5 0.76 0.82 0.23 1.81
2009-2010 LW 66 12.27 -3.33 -2.4 -0.409 0.611 52.2 0.96 0.59 0.30 1.85

Matt Duchene
YearPOS GP TOI/60 CORSION RelCORSI CORSIQoC RelQoC OZS G/60 A1/60 A2/60 P/60
2011-2012 C 58 13.27 7.88 3.9 0.005 -0.256 57.8 0.62 0.16 0.55 1.33
2010-2011 C 80 15.39 -2.73 3.6 -0.332 0.437 52.7 1.07 0.78 0.54 2.39
2009-2010 C 81 13.62 -7.45 4.7 0.106 0.271 50.3 0.71 0.65 0.33 1.69

Jeff Skinner
YearPOS GP TOI/60 CORSION RelCORSI CORSIQoC RelQoC OZS G/60 A1/60 A2/60 P/60
2011-2012 C 64 14.47 1.17 9.2 -0.174 0.120 55.1 1.04 0.65 0.32 2.01
2010-2011 C 82 12.91 1.98 5.6 0.176 0.244 53.0 1.42 0.45 0.62 2.42

Taylor Hall
YearPOS GP TOI/60 CORSION RelCORSI CORSIQoC RelQoC OZS G/60 A1/60 A2/60 P/60
2011-2012 LW 61 14.75 5.67 15.2 1.442 0.858 56.5 0.87 0.87 0.33 2.07
2010-2011 LW 81 15.07 1.98 10.3 0.532 0.461 52.0 0.80 0.43 0.55 1.78

Jordan Eberle
YearPOS GP TOI/60 CORSION RelCORSI CORSIQoC RelQoC OZS G/60 A1/60 A2/60 P/60
2011-2012 C 78 14.00 -3.02 5.7 0.459 0.483 60.7 1.32 1.21 0.55 3.08
2010-2011 C 69 14.10 -3.27 8.5 0.677 0.189 49.3 0.74 0.68 0.37 1.79

John Tavares
YearPOS GP TOI/60 CORSION RelCORSI CORSIQoC RelQoC OZS G/60 A1/60 A2/60 P/60
2011-2012 C 82 16.66 1.84 10.6 0.380 0.562 58.7 0.97 1.01 0.40 2.37
2010-2011 C 79 15.02 -2.58 9.1 0.557 0.557 55.6 0.91 0.56 0.56 2.02
2009-2010 C 82 13.39 -4.15 2.5 0.562 0.473 56.9 0.71 0.60 0.11 1.42

All numbers, of course, are from behindthenet and only for even strength


Last edited by garret9: 09-10-2012 at 09:28 PM.
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08-23-2012, 01:25 AM
  #31
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This is from Eric T.'s work over at NHL numbers.
Basic idea is evaluating quality of competition a player faces by the opposing player's TOI/60 instead of CORSI. This allows to split up the oppositions defence and offence.


This makes sense:
LLW faced top D men and 2nd best forwards
Kane's line was semi-sheltered
GST faced top forwards but the other team would put their weakest D against them
Our AHL line was terrible and both our coach and the other knew it


EDIT:
I thought for fun and perspective I'd add the two teams that 2 of our players recently came from (Jokinen and Ponikarovsky)



My interpretations of this is it solidifies my previous opinion on those two:
Jokinen could do as well as last year, even without Iginla, since he will unlikely be facing as tough minutes (by this TOI metric Jokinen faced the second toughest forwards in the NHL while mostly getting defensive zone starts...). He will either be on the 1st line - facing 2nd hardest toughs w/ mostly OZ starts - or 2nd line -facing sheltered minutes with lots of OZ starts- as opposed to toughest minutes with hardest competition and lots of DZ starts. He probably fits best on the 2nd line with Kane and one of Antro/Welly/Burmi with first line PP with Kane and Wheeler.
Ponokarovsky should be a huge improvement on our third line, even if he were to play with Slater and Thorbur, which he will not; it will be most likely two of Welly/Antro/Burmi

Two interesting things to note:
1) West teams tend to do Power vs Power while East tend to do Power vs Checking match-ups
2) Ponikarovsky's TOI competition is the first I've noticed to not match corsiQoC. (Re-Edit) I stand corrected; it does match. Poni's ability to produce and control possession with lack of OZ starts are where he shines best.


Last edited by garret9: 08-24-2012 at 03:45 AM.
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08-23-2012, 07:32 AM
  #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
This is from Eric T.'s work over at NHL numbers.
Basic idea is evaluating quality of competition a player faces by the opposing player's TOI/60 instead of CORSI. This allows to split up the oppositions defence and offence.


This makes sense:
LLW faced top D men and 2nd best forwards
Kane's line was semi-sheltered
GST faced top forwards but the other team would put their weakest D against them
Our AHL line was terrible and both our coach and the other knew it
That is actually a powerful graph that tells allot

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Old
09-01-2012, 02:19 PM
  #33
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Trying to find a patch for Bogosian's injury

Grant Clitsome
YearPOS GP TOI/60 CORSION RelCORSI CORSIQoC RelQoC OZS G/60 A1/60 A2/60 P/60
2011-2012 LD 63 13.84 -3.30 -0.2 -0.624 -0.426 49.7 0.21 0.28 0.28 0.76
2010-2011 LD 31 15.47 2.63 -0.4 0.826 -0.067 63.0 0.25 0.38 0.50 1.13
2009-2010 LD 11 12.95 1.26 15.3 3.661 -1.629 47.4 0.42 0.42 0.42 1.26

Mark Stuart
YearPOS GP TOI/60 CORSION RelCORSI CORSIQoC RelQoC OZS G/60 A1/60 A2/60 P/60
2011-2012 LD 80 14.04 -3.42 -6.2 -0.700 -0.103 50.2 0.05 0.21 0.37 0.64
2010-2011 LD 54 13.38 -4.32 -9.2 0.131 -0.280 50.7 0.17 0.25 0.08 0.50
2009-2010 LD 56 15.21 -1.48 -12.5 -0.919 -0.202 52.9 0.07 0.14 0.07 0.28

Derek Meech
YearPOS GP TOI/60 CORSION RelCORSI CORSIQoC RelQoC OZS G/60 A1/60 A2/60 P/60
2011-2012 LD 2 10.04 17.93 10.4 1.479 0.347 57.1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2010-2011 LD 49 10.44 3.52 -5.2 0.121 -0.584 58.3 0.12 0.35 0.12 0.59
2009-2010 LD 41 9.53 11.05 -4.6 -0.669 -0.812 62.8 0.31 0.61 0.00 0.92

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09-26-2012, 01:10 AM
  #34
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For people who were wondering how diff dmen around the league were used


TeamPairing Name OZS RelQoC Name OZS RelQoC
ANA 1 F.Beauchemin 47.6 0.998 C.Fowler 50.5 0.781
2 L.Visnovsky 53.6 0.451 L.Sbisa 52.0 -0.288
BOS 1 Z.Chara 48.1 1.015 J.Boychuk 52.7 0.896
2 D.Seidenberg 52.1 0.177 J.Corvo 56.4 -0.343
CAR 1 T.Gleason 39.8 1.243 B.Anallen 40.3 1.014
2 J.Faulk 52.0 0.567 J.Harrison 49.4 0.498
CGY 1 J.Bouwmeester 48.0 1.672 C.Butler 47.7 1.704
2 S. Hannan 48.7 0.858 M.Giordano 51.2 1.072
CHI 1 D.Keith 50.9 1.321 B.Seabrook 49.8 1.522
2 N.Leddy 52.0 0.415 N.Hjalmarsson 54.6 0.738
COL 1 J.Hejda 35.9 0.635 R.OByrne 32.8 0.523
2 S.OBrian 58.4 -0.027 E.Johnson 59.2 0.075
DAL 1 A.Goligoski 49.8 0.021 P.Larsen 50.8 -0.318
2 S.Robidas 46.5 1.034 S.Souray 45.9 1.159
DET 1 N.Lidstrom 57.1 1.441 I.White 57.5 0.944
2 Bstuart 54.3 0.562 N.Kronwall 54.5 0.702
EDM 1 J.Petry 49.1 0.970 L.Slavsmid 49.3 1.366
2 R.Whitney 51.4 0.187 C.Potter 54.3 -0.035
FLA 1 B.Campbell 54.0 0.755 J.Garrison 53.7 1.015
2 D.Kulikov 45.9 0.464 M.Weaver 40.3 1.069
LA 1 D.Doughty 50.8 0.910 R.Scuderi 48.4 0.986
2 W.Mitchell 51.5 0.420 S.Voynov 57.4 -0.051
MTL 1 J.Gorges 44.5 1.411 PK.Subban 46.3 1.266
2 A.Emelin 47.5 -0.107 R.Diaz 47.3 0.101
NSH 1 S.Weber 44.6 1.332 R.Suter 45.7 1.262
2 K.Klein 41.8 -0.158 F.Bouillon 46.5 -0.352
NYI 1 A.Macdonald 47.9 0.628 T.Hamonic 49.5 0.811
2 M.Streit 53.7 0.601 M.Jurcina 51.2 0.266
NYR 1 D.Girardi 44.2 1.653 R.Mcdonagh 42.8 1.707
2 M.DelZotto 51.3 0.211 A.Stralman 51.6 -0.016
OTT 1 E.Karlsson 57.1 0.657 F.Kuba 57.2 0.807
2 S.Gonchar 52.8 0.268 M.Gilroy 51.3 -0.002
PHI 1 K.Timonen 53.6 1.220 B.Coburn 50.2 1.079
2 M.Carle 49.4 0.589 M.Bourdon 49.0 0.037
PHX 1 K.Yandle 55.0 -0.073 D.Morris 54.7 -0.281
2 O.EL 48.5 0.483 A.Aucoin 48.8 0.817
PIT 1 B.Orpik 51.5 0.917 K.Letang 52.2 0.583
2 P.Martin 54.7 0.589 Z.Michalek 51.9 0.799
SJS 1 M.Vlasic 47.4 1.085 D.Boyle 54.2 1.199
2 B.Burns 56.4 0.747 D.Murray 47.3 0.755
STL 1 A.Pietrangelo 52.8 0.721 C.Colacovo 46.2 0.792
2 B.Jackman 54.4 0.463 M.Shattenkirk 50.0 0.013
TBL 1 E.Brewer 33.6 1.269 V.Hedman 37.3 1.058
2 B.Clark 35.7 0.432 B.Lee 51.3 -0.464
TOR 1 D.Phaneuf 50.0 1.399 C.Gunnarsson 45.4 1.145
2 J.Gardiner 56.0 -0.328 L.Schenn 50.7 -0.154
VAN 1 K.Bieksa 49.2 0.797 D.Hamhuis 46.8 0.815
2 A.Edler 57.8 0.597 S.Salo 53.6 0.597
WPG 1 D.Byfuglien 53.4 0.674 T.Enstrom 53.4 0.558
2 Z.Bogosian 49.4 0.591 R.Hainsey 46.9 0.552
WSH 1 D.Wideman 49.0 0.132 Rotating Cast - -
2 K.Alzner 41.6 1.403 J.Carlson 45.3 1.050

People can ignore this thread... I just used it to build this and keep as an archive.


Last edited by garret9: 09-26-2012 at 01:24 AM.
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01-06-2013, 01:55 PM
  #35
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Hey mods??
Should we sticky this and we (Truck, myself and others) can run stats throughout the season? (fine with changing the title)

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