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Old
02-19-2013, 11:13 AM
  #826
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Originally Posted by Sore Loser View Post
Excellent breakdown.

On paper, I know everyone thinks we are set on defense and need nothing but forward prospects ... but I'm telling you, this kid is my dark horse for this draft. Every year there seems to be one guy that gets overlooked for whatever reason, but Ryan Pulock is a special player. Whether or not we draft him, I would feel safe guaranteeing that this guy turns into a very good NHL player. Draft him with a second or third first round pick and you now have someone that can naturally play the right side with Ryan Murray on the left.
What are your thoughts on Mirco Mueller? I assume you've seen him play quite a bit.

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02-19-2013, 11:28 AM
  #827
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The defense question (take one with one of our first two picks) is one that is really going to be difficult this year more than last.

I like Seth Jones a lot. He has great size and athleticism. He's the perfect complement to Murray for the next decade. We're talking a Keith-Seabrook or Niedermayer-Pronger type dynamic (the latter two primarily playing together on power play, but I digress). There's no denying that wins championships.

But it would be hard for me, if the draft were today, to take Jones if there's an opportunity to take two of MacKinnon, Drouin and Barkov, particularly if you have the chance to take MacKinnon and Drouin because of how the cookies crumble. That's a chance equivalent to taking the Sedin twins. Again, you have a pair of guys that could each be among the top 10-20 forwards in a few years time.

Pulock is an interesting player, but Jones' size makes him more intriguing to me. Again, Chara/Pronger types are few and far between and they give their team an immediate advantage for a variety of reasons.

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02-19-2013, 11:50 AM
  #828
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Originally Posted by CapnCornelius View Post
The defense question (take one with one of our first two picks) is one that is really going to be difficult this year more than last.

I like Seth Jones a lot. He has great size and athleticism. He's the perfect complement to Murray for the next decade. We're talking a Keith-Seabrook or Niedermayer-Pronger type dynamic (the latter two primarily playing together on power play, but I digress). There's no denying that wins championships.

But it would be hard for me, if the draft were today, to take Jones if there's an opportunity to take two of MacKinnon, Drouin and Barkov, particularly if you have the chance to take MacKinnon and Drouin because of how the cookies crumble. That's a chance equivalent to taking the Sedin twins. Again, you have a pair of guys that could each be among the top 10-20 forwards in a few years time.

Pulock is an interesting player, but Jones' size makes him more intriguing to me. Again, Chara/Pronger types are few and far between and they give their team an immediate advantage for a variety of reasons.
I agree with all of this. I guess it's a good problem to have, but I'm very glad we have The Finn to make this decision.

All things being equal, I'd like to have 2 offensive studs (at least one of them a center) with the first two picks and then take a big d-man with the NYR pick or our 2nd rounder. (Nurse, Zadorov, Mueller are all bigger d-men).

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02-19-2013, 11:51 AM
  #829
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I think to boost the draft strategy is going to take some creativity at the trade deadline. POHOJD is going to want to use GMJK's strength and that is to arm him with picks. I wouldn't be shocked to see the Jackets use their cap space on expiring contracts to stockpile picks. Then, for those current roster players that don't fit with the vision, they'll be shipped out for younger players and picks.

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02-19-2013, 12:01 PM
  #830
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Originally Posted by CapnCornelius View Post
The defense question (take one with one of our first two picks) is one that is really going to be difficult this year more than last.

I like Seth Jones a lot. He has great size and athleticism. He's the perfect complement to Murray for the next decade. We're talking a Keith-Seabrook or Niedermayer-Pronger type dynamic (the latter two primarily playing together on power play, but I digress). There's no denying that wins championships.

But it would be hard for me, if the draft were today, to take Jones if there's an opportunity to take two of MacKinnon, Drouin and Barkov, particularly if you have the chance to take MacKinnon and Drouin because of how the cookies crumble. That's a chance equivalent to taking the Sedin twins. Again, you have a pair of guys that could each be among the top 10-20 forwards in a few years time.
Just off the top of my head, there's only been two cases in the last 25 years of drafting linemates in the first round. The more recent one is Daniel and Henrik Sedin, which obviously has succeeded wildly.

The other one was in 1989, when the Maple Leafs took Scott Thornton and Rob Pearson (both from the Belleville Bulls) in the first round. Then for good measure, they took Steve Bancroft, a defenseman from Belleville, later in the first round. Combined production: 1,216 games, 200 goals, 196 assists (396 points). The bulk of that was carried by Thornton.

In other words, there's no guarantee of that type of successful dynamic translating to the NHL. One could argue that the Sedin factor was overblown because of their nearly-telepathic relationship in all aspects of life, or one could argue that the Leafs scouting simply sucked and that they overrated the OHL dramatically.

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Pulock is an interesting player, but Jones' size makes him more intriguing to me. Again, Chara/Pronger types are few and far between and they give their team an immediate advantage for a variety of reasons.
I don't think anyone has Pulock over Jones. My question is whether the gap between the two is this monstrous chasm that it's made out to be, or even as wide as the gap between Pronger's front teeth.

Size as the determining factor, or even a determining factor between the two...I think someone is going to take Nikita Zadorov fairly high and end up regretting it.

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02-19-2013, 12:45 PM
  #831
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In other words, there's no guarantee of that type of successful dynamic translating to the NHL. One could argue that the Sedin factor was overblown because of their nearly-telepathic relationship in all aspects of life, or one could argue that the Leafs scouting simply sucked and that they overrated the OHL dramatically.
I seem to recall "junior teammates" being reunited through trades and such as well and not getting much out of it then, either. It has me convinced that the Sedins were the exception to the rule.

So much growth and change takes place in going from juniors to the pros. New and improved reflexes and habits have to develop along the way. Of course that's going to mess with existing chemistry.

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02-19-2013, 12:55 PM
  #832
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Just off the top of my head, there's only been two cases in the last 25 years of drafting linemates in the first round. The more recent one is Daniel and Henrik Sedin, which obviously has succeeded wildly.

The other one was in 1989, when the Maple Leafs took Scott Thornton and Rob Pearson (both from the Belleville Bulls) in the first round. Then for good measure, they took Steve Bancroft, a defenseman from Belleville, later in the first round. Combined production: 1,216 games, 200 goals, 196 assists (396 points). The bulk of that was carried by Thornton.
So, you are telling me it has happened twice and one was widely successful and the other time not so much. Think this is a perfect example of what a small sample will do for you. Also, consider that Pearson was a #12 overall pick. Don't think the situation is even vaguely the same with Drouin and MacKinnon.

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02-19-2013, 01:30 PM
  #833
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So, you are telling me it has happened twice and one was widely successful and the other time not so much. Think this is a perfect example of what a small sample will do for you. Also, consider that Pearson was a #12 overall pick. Don't think the situation is even vaguely the same with Drouin and MacKinnon.
I'm trying not to get my hopes up but the thought of drafting two of Jones/MacKinnon/Barkov/Drouin/Monahan/Lindholm/Pulock/Shinkaruk/Ni****kin(sp? Don't even know if that's his name) is so ****ing exciting.

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02-19-2013, 01:46 PM
  #834
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Just off the top of my head, there's only been two cases in the last 25 years of drafting linemates in the first round.
Also, while it isn't 100% the same situation, I'd point to Matt Moulson and John Tavares as the perfect example of chemistry yielding dividends. The two weren't linemates so much as old acquaintances and their success is pretty impressive, especially since the Kings had totally given up on Moulson.

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02-19-2013, 02:13 PM
  #835
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So, you are telling me it has happened twice and one was widely successful and the other time not so much. Think this is a perfect example of what a small sample will do for you. Also, consider that Pearson was a #12 overall pick. Don't think the situation is even vaguely the same with Drouin and MacKinnon.
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Also, while it isn't 100% the same situation, I'd point to Matt Moulson and John Tavares as the perfect example of chemistry yielding dividends. The two weren't linemates so much as old acquaintances and their success is pretty impressive, especially since the Kings had totally given up on Moulson.
No, I'm saying that having two linemates coming in with a lot of hype is extremely uncommon. I only recall those two, but it doesn't mean I'm not forgetting someone. I could mention Brad Richards and Vinny Lecavalier in Tampa Bay, but Lecavalier was the consensus #1 player coming into the year and Richards was thought to be a massive reach in the 3rd round.

I can also mention guys like Martin St. Louis and Eric Perrin, who were linemates for four years at Vermont and then for a year with the Cleveland Lumberjacks but whose reunion was nothing special in Tampa Bay.

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02-19-2013, 03:31 PM
  #836
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No, I'm saying that having two linemates coming in with a lot of hype is extremely uncommon. I only recall those two, but it doesn't mean I'm not forgetting someone. I could mention Brad Richards and Vinny Lecavalier in Tampa Bay, but Lecavalier was the consensus #1 player coming into the year and Richards was thought to be a massive reach in the 3rd round.

I can also mention guys like Martin St. Louis and Eric Perrin, who were linemates for four years at Vermont and then for a year with the Cleveland Lumberjacks but whose reunion was nothing special in Tampa Bay.
Again, apples and oranges regarding Perrin and St. Louis--both were afterthoughts as neither was drafted. Besides which, I bet you Perrin feels like the reunion was pretty special...

EricPerrin.jpg


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02-19-2013, 03:34 PM
  #837
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I think an important part of the difference between the various cases that have been listed here is the draft position and talent that the players had. The Sedin's were consensus top 5 picks. similar to Mackinnon and Drouin, whereas the other line mates were not both so highly skilled.

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02-19-2013, 04:05 PM
  #838
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Oilers fan coming in peace.

I'm interested in in the Columbus rebuild, and I still can't decide, if I were the GM or Head Scout of Columbus, if I would want Jones or Mackinnon with that #1 pick.

Generally defense takes longer to develop than forwards. If you're opening up this rebuild, building around Murray and Jones, with a core of Johnson, Wiz, Tyutin, Nikitin, Erixon, and Savard to choose from to fill it out... you guys could build one of the top 3 d-cores in the league, and spend the next 5 years focusing 1st round selections on forwards.

That said, passing on a 1c is a very difficult thing to do...

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02-19-2013, 04:30 PM
  #839
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Oilers fan coming in peace.

I'm interested in in the Columbus rebuild, and I still can't decide, if I were the GM or Head Scout of Columbus, if I would want Jones or Mackinnon with that #1 pick.

Generally defense takes longer to develop than forwards. If you're opening up this rebuild, building around Murray and Jones, with a core of Johnson, Wiz, Tyutin, Nikitin, Erixon, and Savard to choose from to fill it out... you guys could build one of the top 3 d-cores in the league, and spend the next 5 years focusing 1st round selections on forwards.

That said, passing on a 1c is a very difficult thing to do...
I also suspect no matter who we pick we won't be picking outside of the lottery come next season. Such is the nature of finishing last place as I'm sure you can testify as an Oilers fan. If we take Jones and then, hypothetically take Barkov (who Jarmo should know well and clearly would be very comfortable with if we end up taking him), we're probably going to get another chance at an elite forward come 2014.

I'd also argue (no offense) that part of the reason the Oilers have taken as long as they have to rebuild is that they have built from the front back instead of from the goal out. Part of that was simply the talent that was available to them at forward was too much to pass up, though I really have to wonder if they should have considered Murray over Yakupov. Until Schultz landed in their laps, they really didn't have an elite defenseman in the system unless you count Klefbom. And Schultz is not as complete of a defenseman as Murray or Jones.

So, yeah, it is about as difficult a choice as you can have to make given that #1 centers and franchise defensemen are two of the hardest pieces to come by (a Vezina caliber goalie probably being the hardest piece to come by, but teams win championships without those).

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02-19-2013, 09:47 PM
  #840
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Out of the D-prospects (Jones, Nurse, Risto, etc.) Where would you put Pulock?
Jones is ahead of everyone. The only person I consider taking ahead of him is Nathan MacKinnon, and for me at this point it's very close ... Seth Jones has been absolutely phenomenal. After that, I have Ristolainen around 8/9, and then Pulock and Nurse are in the 11/12/13 range. For me, Pulock could actually be ahead of Ristolainen based on projections. I would certainly consider taking Ryan Pulock anywhere after Mackinnon/Jones/Drouin/Monahan/Barkov/Nichuskin ... so, in essence, as high as 7th

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What are your thoughts on Mirco Mueller? I assume you've seen him play quite a bit.
Indeed. When I first saw Mirco Mueller this season, I was wholly unimpressed. He was paired with Ryan Murray, and perhaps because Murray is such a standout, I thought Mueller wasn't that great. Seemed a little sluggish, not very physical, and with their pairing being matched up against the top two lines of the Spokane Chiefs, they were terribly outplayed.

Since Murray's injury, Mueller has really forged a nice niche for himself as a stay at home type guy. His offensive numbers certainly won't wow, but being on such a weak team, they aren't that bad either (of note, Ryan Murray still sits in the team's top-10 in scoring - in spite of only playing in a third of the games). Even more impressive is his +/- rating being only -4 ... basically, he's third on the team for full-timers, which is very impressive, considering the assignments he's drawing on a nightly basis.

He's a big kid, rangy, not a terrific skater but not terrible. Not a very good shot, but makes a solid pass, isn't terribly physical, but can separate player from puck using angles and intelligence. Really, just a smart, steady, no-frills guy ... think a bigger version of Rob Scuderi. For me, he's a big riser; I have him early in my second round right now.

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02-19-2013, 10:04 PM
  #841
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Indeed. When I first saw Mirco Mueller this season, I was wholly unimpressed. He was paired with Ryan Murray, and perhaps because Murray is such a standout, I thought Mueller wasn't that great. Seemed a little sluggish, not very physical, and with their pairing being matched up against the top two lines of the Spokane Chiefs, they were terribly outplayed.

Since Murray's injury, Mueller has really forged a nice niche for himself as a stay at home type guy. His offensive numbers certainly won't wow, but being on such a weak team, they aren't that bad either (of note, Ryan Murray still sits in the team's top-10 in scoring - in spite of only playing in a third of the games). Even more impressive is his +/- rating being only -4 ... basically, he's third on the team for full-timers, which is very impressive, considering the assignments he's drawing on a nightly basis.

He's a big kid, rangy, not a terrific skater but not terrible. Not a very good shot, but makes a solid pass, isn't terribly physical, but can separate player from puck using angles and intelligence. Really, just a smart, steady, no-frills guy ... think a bigger version of Rob Scuderi. For me, he's a big riser; I have him early in my second round right now.
Compare and contrast: Mirco Mueller 2013 to Stuart Percy 2011.

I only ask because watching Mueller in the WJC reminded me of Percy in the Memorial Cup a couple years back. Nothing will ever jump off the page, just reliable and smart positional play in all facets.

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02-19-2013, 10:09 PM
  #842
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Compare and contrast: Mirco Mueller 2013 to Stuart Percy 2011.

I only ask because watching Mueller in the WJC reminded me of Percy in the Memorial Cup a couple years back. Nothing will ever jump off the page, just reliable and smart positional play in all facets.
Similar, in a lot of ways. As I said, Mueller is the kind of guy that won't play on your top pairing, but could turn into a very reliable bottom-4 guy.

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02-19-2013, 10:16 PM
  #843
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Similar, in a lot of ways. As I said, Mueller is the kind of guy that won't play on your top pairing, but could turn into a very reliable bottom-4 guy.
Interesting. You've taken a query that should have a four-paragraph answer and pared it down into a single sentence.

It's either a paradigm shift, or I'm now realizing that I've spent years boring the living hell out of people.

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02-19-2013, 11:20 PM
  #844
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Interesting. You've taken a query that should have a four-paragraph answer and pared it down into a single sentence.

It's either a paradigm shift, or I'm now realizing that I've spent years boring the living hell out of people.


I'll leave that up to you . But, the honest response is that I had jumped on with a quick moment before spending some time with my family, so I wasn't in a position to type a longer response.

Mueller is quite a bit bigger, has more of a "pro" frame that you want from a shutdown defenseman. Their playstyle is very similar, in that neither guy is flashy or overly offensive, nor physical. I like the "no frills" method, in that neither guy takes a ton of penalties, but both remain effective defenders. I've always wondered about people who jump up and take those sort of defensemen at the draft ... what good are they if they're spending most of the key defending situations in the penalty box? Boris Valabik, I'm looking at you...

In reality, there are plenty of similarities between the two. I could drag it on to four paragraphs, but there isn't a ton more to say.

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02-20-2013, 05:05 AM
  #845
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Thanks for all the background SL. I've enjoyed reading your insights.

I realize this may be hard to judge, but is there a Toews or (better yet) Yzerman type of "win at all costs" leader in this draft?

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02-20-2013, 08:22 AM
  #846
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I also suspect no matter who we pick we won't be picking outside of the lottery come next season. Such is the nature of finishing last place as I'm sure you can testify as an Oilers fan. If we take Jones and then, hypothetically take Barkov (who Jarmo should know well and clearly would be very comfortable with if we end up taking him), we're probably going to get another chance at an elite forward come 2014.

I'd also argue (no offense) that part of the reason the Oilers have taken as long as they have to rebuild is that they have built from the front back instead of from the goal out. Part of that was simply the talent that was available to them at forward was too much to pass up, though I really have to wonder if they should have considered Murray over Yakupov. Until Schultz landed in their laps, they really didn't have an elite defenseman in the system unless you count Klefbom. And Schultz is not as complete of a defenseman as Murray or Jones.

So, yeah, it is about as difficult a choice as you can have to make given that #1 centers and franchise defensemen are two of the hardest pieces to come by (a Vezina caliber goalie probably being the hardest piece to come by, but teams win championships without those).
Absolutely, I agree it would have been better for the Oilers if they could have started building on defense. That said, you can't take Gudbranson over the Hall/Seguin option, and you can't take Larsson over RNH. I'm not from Edmonton, but I've heard rumours they even with #1, they wanted to draft Murray. Two rumours as to why they didn't are, 1) The Owner (Katz) told them they had to draft Yakupov. 2) They already knew they were likely getting schultz, but feared adding another potential franchise d-man might hurt their chances.

Schultz won't be as complete as Murray or Jones (assuming all 3 reach their potential) but I actually think Schultz fits the Oilers style a little better than Murray.

But yeah, Jones would be a solid pick. It's tough to guarantee an elite d-man outside of the top 2 of the draft, but picking a forward anywhere in the top 10 is usually a good bet. Finish your back end now, and then just focus on the forwards.

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02-20-2013, 09:10 AM
  #847
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We are proof that picking a forward "anywhere in the top 10" is not a good bet.

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02-20-2013, 09:20 AM
  #848
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Thanks for all the background SL. I've enjoyed reading your insights.

I realize this may be hard to judge, but is there a Toews or (better yet) Yzerman type of "win at all costs" leader in this draft?
Take it for what it's worth, but those are the two names most commonly used when describing Sean Monahan.

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02-20-2013, 09:22 AM
  #849
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Take it for what it's worth, but those are the two names most commonly used when describing Sean Monahan.
Interesting, we could definitely use a guy like that.

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02-20-2013, 11:24 AM
  #850
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Interesting, we could definitely use a guy like that.
I've followed Monahan pretty closely this year (to the point that I actually created an avatar if he ends up in Columbus back in November).

The 67s are going through an extremely uncommon rebuild; I think they've missed the playoffs once in the last 20 years, and they'll miss this year. He's been heavily leaned on in all situations and continues to excel and, with the exception of his suspension (hit to the head), has done extremely well on a below-average team.

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