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Old
02-21-2013, 02:51 PM
  #876
Stretch Factor
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Originally Posted by Viqsi View Post
The major flaw I see in the analysis here is the theory that certain players presently on the roster won't be part of a final, competitive roster, so therefore "they should be traded immediately for draft picks."

The problem with that is that we still need to ice an NHL team in the interim, and throwing kids to the wolves is rarely good for their development. They still need to EARN places rather than have 'em handed over.


Also, historically, Umberger fits into that "very good 2nd line winger" category so long as he's not being asked to carry the load by himself. Whether or not he'll still be there by the time we're competitive is debatable, but frankly I don't know what you're projecting this roster concept for - next year or several years from now.
I'm projecting it for when we are able to compete with the big boys. Could be one year, could be longer.

If we:
Traded Tyutin and Brassard for Luongo
Signed Getzlaf and Perry or Ryan (this is the hard part)
Traded Umberger for picks. Umberger is not a 2nd line winger any longer.
Drafted a center and a winger who are ready to play on the second line in 2013-14.
Acquire a shutdown d-man

We'd be pretty darn good next year.

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02-21-2013, 03:01 PM
  #877
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Originally Posted by Stretch Factor View Post
I'm projecting it for when we are able to compete with the big boys. Could be one year, could be longer.

If we:
Traded Tyutin and Brassard for Luongo
Doubtful Loungo waives his NTC to come here
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stretch Factor View Post
Signed Getzlaf and Perry or Ryan (this is the hard part)
And they would come here why?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stretch Factor View Post
Traded Umberger for picks. Umberger is not a 2nd line winger any longer.
And with the cap going down what team would want a non second line winger on his contract?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stretch Factor View Post
Drafted a center and a winger who are ready to play on the second line in 2013-14.
So someone better than Rick Nash who started on the 3rd and 4th lines?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stretch Factor View Post
Acquire a shutdown d-man

We'd be pretty darn good next year.
If someone handed me a winning lottery ticket I'd be in pretty good right now too.

But I'm not holding out hope, nor am I going to spend the next few years complaining when said lottery ticket doesn't magically materialize.

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02-21-2013, 03:19 PM
  #878
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Originally Posted by Stretch Factor View Post
I'm projecting it for when we are able to compete with the big boys. Could be one year, could be longer.

If we:
Traded Tyutin and Brassard for Luongo
Signed Getzlaf and Perry or Ryan (this is the hard part)
Traded Umberger for picks. Umberger is not a 2nd line winger any longer.
Drafted a center and a winger who are ready to play on the second line in 2013-14.
Acquire a shutdown d-man

We'd be pretty darn good next year.
What are you smoking, Cause I would like some.

Aside from the fact that I am opposed to Luongo for a number of reasons (asking price (which is apparently much higher than brass and Umby), contract and cap concerns, etc.) The idea that we could sign one of Getzlaf or Perry is laughable. The Wild's coup last year is due to the fact that Suter and Parise wanted to play for their home state. Neither of Getzlaf or Perry are even american, we would have to pay them like Crosby and Malkin just to get them to consider us and I highly doubt that would get them to come here.

I actually agree with the final three options, as well as the trade of Brass and Tyutin, however that is not a desire to compete in the near future, it is a desire to acquire assets that will contribute and lead this team when it is ready to compete in 3 years and beyond. (Yes, I believe it will be a three year rebuild, 2014 last place, 2015 just miss playoffs [i.e. this year's oilers unless JK and JD sell their souls to draft connor Mcdavid], 2016 playoffs)

In truth if we could get two more first round picks this year with the assets from trading Tyutin, Nikitin, Brassard, and Umberger this team could be ready to compete for cups sooner than most think we will even be a competitive franchise. We have better role players, defense, and with Bob better goal tending than the oilers we simply lack the top end talent. Two Drafts can fix that if we concentrate on drafting quality over quantity.

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02-21-2013, 03:19 PM
  #879
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Originally Posted by Skraut View Post
Doubtful Loungo waives his NTC to come here

And they would come here why?

And with the cap going down what team would want a non second line winger on his contract?

So someone better than Rick Nash who started on the 3rd and 4th lines?


If someone handed me a winning lottery ticket I'd be in pretty good right now too.

But I'm not holding out hope, nor am I going to spend the next few years complaining when said lottery ticket doesn't magically materialize.
90% of everything written on this board is either speculation or hyperbole. My post was no different.

The point was most teams are built around 7 key guys. We currently have one of those guys on our roster. JD and The Finn need to figure out how to get the other 6. Could it be done in one year? Yes. Is it at all likely? No.

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02-21-2013, 03:29 PM
  #880
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Seems to me, most good teams in the salary cap era are building around a corps of 7 key "skill" players. 4 on offense, 2 on defense, and 1 goalie. Then 13-15 complementary players to round out the roster. Chicago is a good example of this, though some question remains about the goalie. Anaheim, Pittsburgh, Vancouver, and Boston are also good examples.

Offensively none of those teams load up a single line with three great offensive players, they put two studs and a complementary player together on the top two lines. Defensively they typically play their big minute eaters together. This usually consists of an offensive minded d-man and a traditional stay at home type who can cover his partner's back.

Clearly we have the 13-15 complementary players, the question is who are our 7 key "skill" guys and who is available via draft, trade, or free agency to make out the roster?

Elite Top Line Winger (80+ points)- We need this guy
Elite Top Line Center (80+ points)- We need this guy
Very Good 2nd line winger (50-80 points)- We need this guy
Very Good 2nd line center (50-80 points)- We need this guy
Complementary Top line winger (60ish points)-Atkinson or Johan (I think he'll end up a power forward, not a center)
Complementary 2nd line winger (40ish points)-Anisimov,

Third line (defensively capable) Dubi, Jenner, Foligno, Calvert, Letestu
4th line (energy creators)-Boll, Mac, Dorsett, Gillies

Top Pairing Offensive Defenseman (40-50 points) Perhaps JJ
Top Pairing (SAH) Stay at home D-man (+20) Need this guy
2nd Pairing Offensive Defenseman (30-40 points) Wiz
2nd Pairing SAH (+15) Moore
3rd Pairing Offensive Defenseman (20-30 points) Erixon
3rd Pairing SAH (+10) Murray

#1 Goalie (2.0 GA/.920%) we need this guy
#2 Goalie (someone who can be reliable in a pinch) Mason or Bob is fine with me.

Of the 7 key "skill" positions we currently have 1 filled (JJ).

I don't see a place on this roster for Brassard, Umberger, or Nikitin. I also think we should trade some players who are fighting for the same spot, like Wiz or Tyutin. We don't need two 2nd pairing offensive defensemen when we have so many other holes. Same could be said for trading one of Anisimov, Atkinson, or Johan (unless we think he is a top 4 offensive player).
I like envisioning our future depth chart, thanks for setting this up. I'll presume you don't mean "trade all others immediately" or "slash and burn" as others have interpreted you, and that assets who don't fit future plans will be moved over several years. Also, I'll presume we are looking five years ahead (must specify!).

We need a few other definitions before we project current Jackets onto this championship roster: I'm going to assume that we are taking a guy like Dubinsky and projecting his points five years from now as a player with much better linemates (if hes on the second line, very good second line linemates) and with appropriate ice time for that position in the lineup.

One further caveat: I've seen in a lot of discussions confusion over what qualifies as top line, second line, etc.. What we are talking about here I will call "championship first line", and is not the same as an average teams first line. An average teams first line will have an average player with about 60 points in a full season. (much less than people typically think).

Elite Top Line Winger (80+ points)- We need this guy
Elite Top Line Center (80+ points)- We need this guy
Very Good 2nd line winger (50-80 points)- Anisimov could cover 60 pts in his prime, I think.
Very Good 2nd line center (50-80 points)- I'm putting Johan here.
Complementary Top line winger (60ish points)-Atkinson
Complementary 2nd line winger (40ish points)-we have a lot of guys who could play this role on a championship roster: Dubinsky, Umberger, Foligno, Letestu.

Third line (defensively capable) Jenner, Calvert, etc...
4th line (energy creators)-Boll, Mac, Dorsett, Gillies

Top Pairing Offensive Defenseman (40-50 points) Perhaps JJ
Top Pairing (two way) - Murray should be up here. He was showing more puck skills than people expected this year.
2nd Pairing Offensive Defenseman (30-40 points) Wiz
2nd Pairing SAH (+15) Moore
3rd Pairing Offensive Defenseman (20-30 points) Erixon
3rd Pairing SAH (+10) take your pick

#1 Goalie (2.0 GA/.920%) we need this guy
#2 Goalie (someone who can be reliable in a pinch) Mason or Bob is fine with me.

So I have us missing only a top goalie and two top scorers (five years out, not now). Spare parts to trade (eventually) are TinTin and Brassard.

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02-21-2013, 04:12 PM
  #881
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Elite Top Line Winger (80+ points)- We need this guy
Elite Top Line Center (80+ points)- We need this guy
Very Good 2nd line winger (50-80 points)- Atkinson
Very Good 2nd line center (50-80 points)- Johansen (Already should be here but we lack protection for him, I think next year he will have a logan couture type debut)
Complementary Top line winger (60ish points)-We need this guy
Complementary 2nd line winger (40ish points)-Anisimov/Maybe Foligno if he develops a bit more

Third line (defensively capable) Dubi, Jenner, Foligno, Calvert, Umberger, Letestu, Dorsett
4th line (energy creators)-Boll, Mac, Gillies,

Top Pairing Offensive Defenseman (40-50 points) Perhaps JJ
Top Pairing (two way) - Murray, has second pairing floor from what I've seen. Would imagine he will play his way here midway through his rookie year.
2nd Pairing Offensive Defenseman (30-40 points) Wiz (PP #1 guy)
2nd Pairing SAH (+15) Moore
3rd Pairing Offensive Defenseman (20-30 points) Erixon (PP #2)
3rd Pairing SAH (+10) lots in the system

(Personally I would prefer a more physical shut down pair as our second pairing, but that is personal preference)

#1 Goalie (2.0 GA/.920%) we need this guy
#2 Goalie (someone who can be reliable in a pinch) Need this guy (Bob is good enough, but seems to need more work to be reliable, Mason just needs a change of scenery too much baggage here)

IMO, the above is where most of our players "should" slot, obviously we have too many third liners but I don't know who should be demoted, shipped out, or cut. As for the rest of the current roster, see below:
  • Brass- IMO, already has been surpassed by Johansen. Theoretically a second line talent, but has shown to be bad on the wing and is maybe our worst forward defensively. Trade.
  • Umberger-Slowing down, still may qualify as a second line complimentary player and is an excellent third liner. Paid too much for what he brings and his value will only decline. Trade.
  • Tyutin-Solid is about the best word for him. Not particularly adept at any one aspect of being a D-man IMO but an all-arounder. Basically I think Moore is already close to replacing him with the added benefit of being younger, cheaper, and a better skater. Trade.
  • Nikitin- Much better than what I thought he would ever be, he is a solid PMD with a good shot. Would hang on to him if not for the fact that without Tyutin he seems to fall apart. Also Erixon can take his role and looks to have superior vision and passing skills. Trade.
  • Aucoin- Has been outplayed by Moore and Erixon and Golo and Savard (arguably). If we want him a mentor for young kids bring in another assistant coach. Trade.

On my trade list I see a small hit to our current forward corp and a fairly large hit to our D. Right now we can't win games unless we play perfectly (which is next to impossible to do night in and night out) After the trades (for reasonable returns of course) it will be even harder to win games I grant, however we are selling off what are essentially redundant assets other than Tyutin. THIS IS NOT ADVOCATING TANKING, it is instead an analysis how we can transform the assets we currently have on the roster, during a lost season, into assets with which we can build a future Stanley Cup team.


Last edited by alphafox: 02-21-2013 at 04:22 PM.
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02-21-2013, 04:33 PM
  #882
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So how good do people think this draft is going to be for forwards? The first round of the 2003 draft was insane. I count 11 of the 22 forwards drafted to be quality top line guys. I can't imagine that happening again, most first rounds only have 3-6 forwards of that caliber emerge.

I'm trying to find the probabilities that we can get top line forwards from this first round, and the most arbitrary choice I have to make is in determining the strength of the draft class. My guess for now is 9 guys at least as good as Dustin Brown(a minimal top line forward in terms of production).

Out of an estimated 20 forwards taken, 9 top guys means a .45 probability of netting one. Of course it matters how those forwards are distributed. I'd say 5 will go in the top ten, and 4 in the next twenty, where our Rangers and Kings picks are likely to be. Thats 4 out of 13, or .31 probability of netting a top forward if you pick a forward with one of those two picks. I'd also put it at .9 or higher that we get a top line forward with our own first, if we choose to do so.

If we take 3 forwards, we'd have a 95% chance of getting at least one top line player, I think a 45% chance of getting a pair, and we'd have a 10% chance of having an entire top line from this round.

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02-21-2013, 04:55 PM
  #883
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Originally Posted by major major View Post
So how good do people think this draft is going to be for forwards? The first round of the 2003 draft was insane. I count 11 of the 22 forwards drafted to be quality top line guys. I can't imagine that happening again, most first rounds only have 3-6 forwards of that caliber emerge.

I'm trying to find the probabilities that we can get top line forwards from this first round, and the most arbitrary choice I have to make is in determining the strength of the draft class. My guess for now is 9 guys at least as good as Dustin Brown(a minimal top line forward in terms of production).

Out of an estimated 20 forwards taken, 9 top guys means a .45 probability of netting one. Of course it matters how those forwards are distributed. I'd say 5 will go in the top ten, and 4 in the next twenty, where our Rangers and Kings picks are likely to be. Thats 4 out of 13, or .31 probability of netting a top forward if you pick a forward with one of those two picks. I'd also put it at .9 or higher that we get a top line forward with our own first, if we choose to do so.

If we take 3 forwards, we'd have a 95% chance of getting at least one top line player, I think a 45% chance of getting a pair, and we'd have a 10% chance of having an entire top line from this round.
My first round fluctuates between 6 (basically sure fire 1st line guys barring injury etc) and ~12 (has the potential to be a first line player) but it is continuing to grow. There are quite a few guys that have the potential for stardom/first line play that also have significant question marks. For example

Nichushkin (Russian factor, hockey sense/puck selfishness)
Shinkaruk (small, and questions if his game will be able to translate at the much higher speed nhl)
Mantha (needs to round out his game and not take off shifts)
Erne (offensive ceiling questions)
Lazar (has defensive and offensive skill and size, but has not been able to put it together since his impressive offensive performance late last year)
Rychel (lacks all the elite tools of many forwards in the draft, but could very well turn into a Hartnell type. Has one of the best motors and work ethics in this draft and he is developing into a pretty solid sniper)

Other guys like Wennberg, Klimchuk, Dickinson, and Compher are making serious pushes for mid first round consideration. I honestly think this is going to end up being one of the drafts mentioned in the same breath as the 2003, 1994, 1997 drafts. It is that deep not just at forward, but on defense as well. Seriously, when you are talking about a guys like Valentin Zykov and Jacon De la Rose as second round picks it is a VERY talented and deep draft class.


Last edited by alphafox: 02-21-2013 at 05:08 PM.
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02-21-2013, 05:33 PM
  #884
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Originally Posted by Stretch Factor View Post
Seems to me, most good teams in the salary cap era are building around a corps of 7 key "skill" players. 4 on offense, 2 on defense, and 1 goalie. Then 13-15 complementary players to round out the roster. Chicago is a good example of this, though some question remains about the goalie. Anaheim, Pittsburgh, Vancouver, and Boston are also good examples.

Offensively none of those teams load up a single line with three great offensive players, they put two studs and a complementary player together on the top two lines. Defensively they typically play their big minute eaters together. This usually consists of an offensive minded d-man and a traditional stay at home type who can cover his partner's back.

Clearly we have the 13-15 complementary players, the question is who are our 7 key "skill" guys and who is available via draft, trade, or free agency to make out the roster?

Elite Top Line Winger (80+ points)- We need this guy
Elite Top Line Center (80+ points)- We need this guy
Very Good 2nd line winger (50-80 points)- We need this guy
Very Good 2nd line center (50-80 points)- We need this guy
Complementary Top line winger (60ish points)-Atkinson or Johan (I think he'll end up a power forward, not a center)
Complementary 2nd line winger (40ish points)-Anisimov,

Third line (defensively capable) Dubi, Jenner, Foligno, Calvert, Letestu
4th line (energy creators)-Boll, Mac, Dorsett, Gillies

Top Pairing Offensive Defenseman (40-50 points) Perhaps JJ
Top Pairing (SAH) Stay at home D-man (+20) Need this guy
2nd Pairing Offensive Defenseman (30-40 points) Wiz
2nd Pairing SAH (+15) Moore
3rd Pairing Offensive Defenseman (20-30 points) Erixon
3rd Pairing SAH (+10) Murray

#1 Goalie (2.0 GA/.920%) we need this guy
#2 Goalie (someone who can be reliable in a pinch) Mason or Bob is fine with me.

Of the 7 key "skill" positions we currently have 1 filled (JJ).

I don't see a place on this roster for Brassard, Umberger, or Nikitin. I also think we should trade some players who are fighting for the same spot, like Wiz or Tyutin. We don't need two 2nd pairing offensive defensemen when we have so many other holes. Same could be said for trading one of Anisimov, Atkinson, or Johan (unless we think he is a top 4 offensive player).
I am assuming you are looking three to four years down the road at the earliest. It seems pretty obvious to me that you don't mean next year or even he year after.

I like your overall structure and where you have slotted players.

I think Umberger should be trade asap. he currently sucks and did for most of last year. If anyone want shim let him go now. Same for Brass.

We do not have the assets to obtain your desired top line guys through trades. They will have to come from the draft, so why not trade Umbie and Brass and whoever else on your list right now for as many picks as possible. As Capn has stated many times it is very rare for a 30th place team to make the playoffs (or even improve much in the standings). I say get the picks and start building this team the right way rather than trying to build a contender while keeping the dead wood.

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02-21-2013, 05:53 PM
  #885
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Do whatever it takes to get 2 more first round picks this year! Haha! Imagine having 5 picks up for the lottery...We'd still lose but just imagine 5/10 top guys on the roster next year. We have the first Euro GM maybe he'll make some unheard of moves..

Hell if we come out of the draft with just 2 of these kids I think the Organization would be sitting pretty good for the future.
Mac-K, Jones, Barkov, Drouin, Lindholm, Monahan, Shinkaruk, Nischukin

If im not mistaken I thought I had seen somewhere where JD/JK had mentioned something about being willing to trade up in the draft in there was someone they wanted bad enough.

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02-21-2013, 07:05 PM
  #886
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I still can't believe the complete disrespect Ryan Murray gets on here ...

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02-21-2013, 07:12 PM
  #887
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I still can't believe the complete disrespect Ryan Murray gets on here ...
Not here. Watching the game I can't help but think how much better our blueline would be with Ryan out there.

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02-21-2013, 07:17 PM
  #888
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I still can't believe the complete disrespect Ryan Murray gets on here ...
With how our offense has played this year, you are?

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02-21-2013, 07:25 PM
  #889
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I'd love our first two picks to be Barkov and Drouin. That would be a huge upgrade to our offense.

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02-21-2013, 07:28 PM
  #890
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I am assuming you are looking three to four years down the road at the earliest. It seems pretty obvious to me that you don't mean next year or even he year after.

I like your overall structure and where you have slotted players.

I think Umberger should be trade asap. he currently sucks and did for most of last year. If anyone want shim let him go now. Same for Brass.

We do not have the assets to obtain your desired top line guys through trades. They will have to come from the draft, so why not trade Umbie and Brass and whoever else on your list right now for as many picks as possible. As Capn has stated many times it is very rare for a 30th place team to make the playoffs (or even improve much in the standings). I say get the picks and start building this team the right way rather than trying to build a contender while keeping the dead wood.
Most everyone seems to think we should trade Umby for picks. I'm not so sure, because Umby isn't going to get us much of a return (if any) with that contract. Considering that we have to pay overpay free agents anyways, why not keep a guy here who, though overpaid, can put together pretty good half seasons? (yes I wrote that). I'm not in agreement that he isn't a top-sixer anymore. He is just woefully slow to get in gear.

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02-21-2013, 07:50 PM
  #891
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I would take anything I could get for Umberger. I just don't think he fits our team moving forward and his salary is too high.

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02-21-2013, 07:55 PM
  #892
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With how our offense has played this year, you are?
It's his fault we aren't getting any offense?

We could have drafted Alex Galchenyuk, but there's no telling how well he would be doing right now, with less of a supporting cast up front. Heck, he might not have even made the team, with Todd Richards in charge.

So, because Ryan Murray was the pick, instead of a guy who's having a decent rookie season, he will be forever hated by the "fanbase", and relegated to disrespect.

Sounds like logical reasoning.

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02-21-2013, 08:55 PM
  #893
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SL, I've had the thought for awhile now that maybe Mackinnon is a tad overrated... What are your thoughts on him?

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02-21-2013, 09:18 PM
  #894
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I still can't believe the complete disrespect Ryan Murray gets on here ...
Yeah, i was thinking about that after I posted. I think he should be considered a top 4 guy. Really haven't seen him play but from what you and others have said I have to think he's top 4 if not top 2 couple of three years down the road.

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02-21-2013, 09:32 PM
  #895
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It's his fault we aren't getting any offense?

We could have drafted Alex Galchenyuk, but there's no telling how well he would be doing right now, with less of a supporting cast up front. Heck, he might not have even made the team, with Todd Richards in charge.

So, because Ryan Murray was the pick, instead of a guy who's having a decent rookie season, he will be forever hated by the "fanbase", and relegated to disrespect.

Sounds like logical reasoning.
Logical reasoning? We don't do that sort of thing here.

Hell, we still have people bitter at Johansen for daring to not be Cam Fowler or Brandon Gormley.

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02-21-2013, 10:03 PM
  #896
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I still can't believe the complete disrespect Ryan Murray gets on here ...
Will he be in the rotation next year? Lot of bodies with the youngsters like Moore/Erixson as well. Too old for juniors right? What type of impact do you expect he'll have.

I agree about the disrepect....although I think its just mainly due to him being injured and others playing pretty well (Nail, Galchenyuk). Outta sight outta mind I guess.

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02-21-2013, 10:12 PM
  #897
Sore Loser
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Originally Posted by gojackets1 View Post
SL, I've had the thought for awhile now that maybe Mackinnon is a tad overrated... What are your thoughts on him?
I think people need to temper their expectations on him, to be sure. What makes Seth Jones more attractive to me is that I can see him being a franchise-type of defenseman - a 30 minute a night, 50-60 point, shutdown quality defender. Really see a combo of Shea Weber and Drew Doughty in him ... not saying that he will be as good/better than either of them, but his playstyle is a mash of both. With Nathan MacKinnon, I certainly think he can be a top line player in the NHL, but I think a lot of people are looking at him as the next Stamkos or Tavares, when a better comparison for him would be Jason Spezza or Tyler Seguin. He could probably develop into an 80-90 point guy - maybe more with better linemates, maybe less on a weak team. I don't think of him as the guy that's going to come out and dominate a game, but he should be a consistent, competitive performer.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cash for Nash View Post
Will he be in the rotation next year? Lot of bodies with the youngsters like Moore/Erixson as well. Too old for juniors right? What type of impact do you expect he'll have.
He can play in Everett next year, but it's extremely unlikely, as he would be an overage player. To add to that, he's simply too good for junior hockey, and could have played in the NHL this year. He can play in the AHL next year, so my best guess is that he'll start with the Jackets, and if things don't take off right away, he will spend the bulk of his time in Springfield.

It's my opinion that, unless there are lingering effects from the shoulder injury, or if he's simply rusty; he will not only be on the team, but will quickly surpass most of the young defensemen in the system. He plays well above his years, and the guys will like him and what he brings immediately.

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02-21-2013, 11:50 PM
  #898
cslebn
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SL

What are your thoughts of a Moore-Murray pairing next year?

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02-22-2013, 09:32 AM
  #899
Stretch Factor
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Originally Posted by Sore Loser View Post
I still can't believe the complete disrespect Ryan Murray gets on here ...
I don't think many are disrespecting. Most of us have never seen him play. The only thing we have to go on is what we've read pre-draft.

Sounds to me like a solid all around defenseman who could perhaps play on the top pairing. But, will likely take a year or two (at least) to develop into that role.

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02-22-2013, 09:45 AM
  #900
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Last nights win, while not necessarily a harbinger, does show the guys don't believe they are dead yet.

Couple that with signs of life in both LA & NY I think one must realistically examine where the draft picks might actually fall.

Best guess:
1-top 10 (maybe top 5)
1-middle 10
1-bottom 10

If this is the case what do you do?

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