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Old
08-21-2012, 12:04 AM
  #51
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sully1410 View Post
Is there a coach that actually took the reigns of a losing team and developed the young players and then won a cup? There must be...

I just always thought that there was a coach you won with and a coach you developed with. Maybe Noel is the development guy.
yes his name is Al Arbour.

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08-21-2012, 02:39 AM
  #52
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I'm gonna be a Debbie downer here too and ask a question I've been wondering...Everyone is all excited for our third line this year, probably being Poni - Antro - Wellwood. Everyone is saying how much depth this is ect...Are you all completly forgetting that Antropov spent most of the year on the 4th line? Why is he suddenly our best bet for a third line center? Never understood.

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08-21-2012, 06:32 AM
  #53
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Most likely... then you'll see everyone getting angry at me for slamming Pavelec again...
Go ahead and slam...I'm not convinced yet. I'm hopeful, but IMO Pavs still has a ways to go before he is mentioned among the best in the game.

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08-21-2012, 07:34 AM
  #54
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Originally Posted by KingBogo View Post
I didn't want to start a new thread, and I am preparing to get a mountain of stats thrown at me, but I think we (Jets Board posters) are getting dangerously close to overating our team/players as much as Leafs fans. While 14th in the East may be a bit low, my guess is we will end up roughly where we did last year (11th) same as the year before, and the year before that etc. This franchise has made the post season once and has never won a playoff game. While I think we have a good young core to build around, we are probably 4-5 years away from contending (best case senario and if everything falls perfectly into place).

However, if someone was just to read this board over the summer and never actually watched the Jets play you could come to no other conclusion other then that we are a perenial power house

A summary would read something like this: We have 3 #1 defenseman. Buff top 5 if only he would tighten up his defense a bit, Toby top 15, tough a bit undersized, Bogo on the verge of stardom and future Norris throphy candidate (okay I believe that one )

On forward we have 2 #1 lines - 1a and 1b (even though perenial journey-man Kyle Wellwood will likely be rounding out the 2nd line). Never mind we have one of the best 4th lines in the game. In goal we also have one of the best young goalies in the game.

That team sounds more like the Habs of the late 70's than the Jets of 2012.

I'm usually one of the guys that goes around with rose coloured glasses on but I think we are in need of some of the glass half empty posts. But man I wish we actually had the team listed above
I guess you have to expect a glass-half-full attitude on a board like this, but, overall, my sentiments are in line with yours. Having said that, the overly optimistic attitude is more than compensated for by the incredible knowledge of many of the posters.
The main reason I am cautious in my outlook has entirely to do with defence. There has been way too much emphasis on 1a/1b vs 2a/2b and not enough on the fact that we were 25th in goals against last year in a league in which defence wins championships. We will score more goals, for sure, but our fate lies in the hands of our (as yet unproven) goaltender and the defensive prowess of our defencemen (especially you know who...)

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08-21-2012, 07:38 AM
  #55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flying High View Post
I'm gonna be a Debbie downer here too and ask a question I've been wondering...Everyone is all excited for our third line this year, probably being Poni - Antro - Wellwood. Everyone is saying how much depth this is ect...Are you all completly forgetting that Antropov spent most of the year on the 4th line? Why is he suddenly our best bet for a third line center? Never understood.
Cause Wellwood and Poni are proven NHLers that will play with Antro, as opposed to having Stapleton/Maclean/Maxwell/Jaffray, etc on the third line like last year. Noel didn't trust them and played them for 3-4 minutes and that burnt out the other lines. GST played more than they should have because of that. This year's third line has NHLers not AHLers, that's why they have more depth.

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08-21-2012, 08:00 AM
  #56
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Read my mind buddy. I dont see many posts extolling us as the likely stanly cup champs, mostly well thought realistic analysis saying we'll fight for a playoff spot, which we may need to remind someone, despite our many deficiencies, is exactly what we did last year.

I dont see how you could assume weve gotten worse when weve addressed almost all of our biggest issues(i'm looking at you pavelec)

Oh, and not losing over half the season between your top 3 d men should help with gaa.

Obviously its still all a crapshoot and in the dog days of summer what else are we going to do?

A stastical look(i know, i know) would say this team has improved immensly, fan-dom aside.

If you think were a contender or a bottom feeder, your fan (or anti-fan) goggles are clouding your judgment.

Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
I think I'm one of the people you directed this towards.
There is a difference between being optimistic and unrealistic, and I think you're confusing the two.

I think this team has improved greatly, but I think that puts them realistically as a 7th-8th seed upside with 12th place low (obviously in East not overall haha... I wish), dependent on injuries and hot/cold streaks... I think most of the people you're mentioning think the same. That sounds pretty realistic and reasonably level headed to me. No Habs of the 70's and no plan-the-parade attitude. The only one's like that I've seen is tongue-and-cheek being silly.

What most of us have seen is that we had a few major problems and many of these have been addressed. They may have not been perfected, but most of the ones not addressed could possibly be dealt with internally:
  • Goaltending - TNSE is hoping Pav's can reach his potential as shown by his contract extension; I'm skeptical and have been vocal here of it but I still hope
  • Centre Depth - Jokinen was signed pushing a top6 C into third and third to fourth; we're not a golden team by any level but I think last year we were terrible here, arguably one of the weakest
  • Scoring Depth - Ponikarovsky with the person pushed down by Jokinen creates a competent third line
  • Penalty Kill - personally I think loss of GST as a 3rd line will help this but not be enough, we will probably be sub-par here but hopefully better; hopefully we can at least improve our number of penalties
  • Shots against - we improved here last year from league worst to simply bellow-avg and hopefully the improved depth and lack of GST as 3rd line will improve this
  • Defense/GoalsAgainst - to me this is a combo of a few problems: Buff's over pinching (slightly improved over season), poor covering Buff by offence (slightly improved over season), GST as third line, centre depth (they act as 3rd Dman), and Pavelec's lack of consistency
  • Penalties/Back-to-Backs/Away - a lot of these problems arise when you have weak depth. Without depth you are easier to be linematched against, especially away. You get outplayed, then tired, then make dumb penalties. Also, Pavelec has a bad history with back-to-backs

I think what most of us see is improvement and potential; it's a step forward. Not a contender.
Also, I stand by my 1a) 1b) statement. It doesn't mean that our team is filled of All-Stars. It means we have two lines that, if used appropriately (AKA shelter that 1b line), the Jets can have average first lines production from two lines. The Jets roster is built as a community scoring team, and will succeed and fail as such.


I'm curious why you don't think they are first line players. Too often we mix up Elite with 1st line value. If they score at first line rates than they are first line players don't you think?
In my post I calculated:
*2 to be elite (top 10): Kane and Wheeler
*2 to be average (11-20): Ladd and Little
*1 to be mix bag (2nd line C but 1st line PP): Jokinen
*1 to be weak (20-30): Wellwood... and I've stated multiple times he is unlikely (but still possible) to reach that scoring level again

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08-21-2012, 08:08 AM
  #57
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Originally Posted by KingBogo View Post
I guess I just feel a bit of a disconnect from all the positives I keep reading about and between a team I remember having a lot of needs and deficencies. I guess a more critical analysis will come when they actually start playing hockey again.
I haven't seen one poster claim that we are going to win the cup next year. Or one post that claimed we were going to go far into the playoffs.

Like garret9 has posted, there has been some cautious optimism regarding some of the offseason moves, and the hope that the team will be better next year.

There is nothing different going on here that is not going on in 29 other team boards.

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08-21-2012, 08:52 AM
  #58
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flying High View Post
I'm gonna be a Debbie downer here too and ask a question I've been wondering...Everyone is all excited for our third line this year, probably being Poni - Antro - Wellwood. Everyone is saying how much depth this is ect...Are you all completly forgetting that Antropov spent most of the year on the 4th line? Why is he suddenly our best bet for a third line center? Never understood.
He spent time on the 4th line buut that was because of line usage.
Noel wasn't going to put Maxwell, Machacek, Stapleton, Fehr and company on the third line as those players were needing massive sheltering.

Antro scored at higher rates than Burmi and equal to Wellwood in everything but secondary assists. Antro is highly underated because he isn't fast in his first few steps.

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08-21-2012, 09:00 AM
  #59
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Someone has to finish 14th, and parity is so great now that a single losing streak can dramatically affect your place in the standings.

I see a few reasons why 14th is possible:

Carolina and Tampa Bay are significantly better, too. The Jets' competition within the division has improved, and it's possible that both teams could have improved more than the Jets have.

Last summer, The Hockey News picked Ottawa to finish last. While that may be encouraging to Jets' fans, it also shows just how volatile the standings are. Ottawa pulled into the playoffs on the strength of Karlsson's emergence. Who will emerge this year? It could be a Jet, or it could be someone from one of the other 10 teams battling the Jets for a playoff spot.

Every year, one or two teams get decimated by injuries. It could be the Jets' turn.


None of these explanations are enough to guarantee that the Jets will finish 14th, but they make the case that it is possible. The Hockey News can't hedge its forecast, and look around the Conference, each team has reason to be hopeful.

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08-21-2012, 09:01 AM
  #60
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flying High View Post
I'm gonna be a Debbie downer here too and ask a question I've been wondering...Everyone is all excited for our third line this year, probably being Poni - Antro - Wellwood. Everyone is saying how much depth this is ect...Are you all completly forgetting that Antropov spent most of the year on the 4th line? Why is he suddenly our best bet for a third line center? Never understood.
Antropov didn't spend most of the year on the 4th line.

He finished the year 6th among forwards in TOI per game.

This year he will probably finish somewhere between 7th and 9th


Last edited by truck: 08-21-2012 at 09:13 AM.
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08-21-2012, 09:21 AM
  #61
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ismellofhockey View Post
Someone has to finish 14th, and parity is so great now that a single losing streak can dramatically affect your place in the standings.

I see a few reasons why 14th is possible:

Carolina and Tampa Bay are significantly better, too. The Jets' competition within the division has improved, and it's possible that both teams could have improved more than the Jets have.

Last summer, The Hockey News picked Ottawa to finish last. While that may be encouraging to Jets' fans, it also shows just how volatile the standings are. Ottawa pulled into the playoffs on the strength of Karlsson's emergence. Who will emerge this year? It could be a Jet, or it could be someone from one of the other 10 teams battling the Jets for a playoff spot.

Every year, one or two teams get decimated by injuries. It could be the Jets' turn.


None of these explanations are enough to guarantee that the Jets will finish 14th, but they make the case that it is possible. The Hockey News can't hedge its forecast, and look around the Conference, each team has reason to be hopeful.
While i compleyely agree with your logic here, keep on mind all of these thing could work for the jets and get them into the playoffs. Anything can happen, bad AND good

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08-21-2012, 10:15 AM
  #62
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Originally Posted by Grind View Post
...Oh, and not losing over half the season between your top 3 d men should help with gaa....
I forgot this point but it's a good one.

Buff and Enstrom have been shown to be statistically better in every way (shots, goals, goals against, shots against, etc) together than apart. Bogo had fantastic chemistry with Hainsey....

But all of our top4 to played 66 or less games. Even worse Enstrom's and Buff's injuries caused them to be separated for 36 games. So when people are concerned about injuries... We had 'em last year too.

Top 4 D lost: 16(Bu) + 20(En) + 17(Bo) + 26(Ha) = 79 man games
Top 6 F lost: 8(Li) + 0(La) + 2(Wh) + 8(Ka) + 6(Bu) + 9(Avg: An/We) = 33 man games

So, it looks like last year we got hurt bad on defence for injuries (plus add in the idea that Buff played injured for the later half) but looks like we well for forwards. Our forwards don't have history of injuries and neither does our defence. I'd say it's likely that our D's injuries will be better next year and our F will be about the same or maybe a tad worse. The nice thing is we'll have better depth to cover for injuries (with 3 of Poni, Antro, Wellwood, Burmi instead of 3 of Antro, Fehr, Machacek, Miettinen)

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08-21-2012, 11:24 AM
  #63
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We're not a great team, but 14th? What are these idiots smoking? We're at least better than Toronto, Ottawa, Florida, the NY Islanders and Montreal.

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08-21-2012, 01:09 PM
  #64
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We have reason to be optimistic, but maybe some people are overrating the impact some of our additions may have.

The thing I don't like is when people say that the other teams around the South East made significant improvements as if we did nothing. We were competitive with every other team in the South East, we've shored up a few holes, those being third line and center depth. I like any of the suggested combo's of a 3rd line combo's over what we had for most of last year, and Jokinen will be a good 50+ point man who may or may not be a good center for Kane to get more goals.

That said, we still have the same top 4 D as last year, and our D was one of our main problems last year. Hopefully they can stay healthier than last year, which with the help of the hockey gods may come to reality., especially since none of them have a history of being injury prone. Hopefully Pavelec will be more consistent, which would of course help any team ever.

We should still be capable of fighting for the 8th spot throughout the year, depending on injuries, but the same could be said for Florida, Tampa Bay and Carolina with us as well. I by no means think a playoff spot is guarenteed, but are we as far off as 14th? No, I would be disappointed at that outcome.


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08-21-2012, 02:25 PM
  #65
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As one poster just said with the parity in the new NHL anything can happen. If you even take a team like Montreal who had a bad year and finished dead last in the east with 78 points, all they would have to do this year is have one more win per month and they would reach the same points total as the last playoff team this past season.

14th sounds harsh but these teams are all so close now who really knows. I am very confident we have improved our team and are also not going through the major turmoil of the off season move but if we lost Pavi for the season we could easily slip into 14th spot or conversely if we remain healthy we could win our division IMHO.

One thing I do know is Hockey news is throwing darts at the board blindfolded just like the rest of us on this one!


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08-21-2012, 06:02 PM
  #66
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Huffer View Post
I haven't seen one poster claim that we are going to win the cup next year. Or one post that claimed we were going to go far into the playoffs.

Like garret9 has posted, there has been some cautious optimism regarding some of the offseason moves, and the hope that the team will be better next year.

There is nothing different going on here that is not going on in 29 other team boards.
We're going to go far in the playoffs!!!

When we make the playoffs this year, no other 'eastern' team will travel as far to get to their opposition's city!

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08-21-2012, 06:13 PM
  #67
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There is nothing different going on here that is not going on in 29 other team boards.[/QUOTE]

This I agree with 100%. During the season when everyone tends to be more critical, I found myself being the rose coloured glasses guy more often then not. During the off season when everyone is full of hope and optimism I find myself being the skeptical guy. I guess I just feel a need to balance things out Maybe there is a support group for that


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08-21-2012, 06:36 PM
  #68
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It's fairly safe to say we'll be in the playoff mix. A good start, strong finish, timely scoring and good goaltending and we can make a push for the playoffs. Just like 14 other teams in the east.

But our depth of NHL-calibre players is better than it was last year, with enough forward depth to ice an okay top 9, and one can 'assume' our young players will continue to get better.

This isn't a group that all had career years and there's no place to go but down. This team is likely to continue to grow and get better. Will that be enough to make the playoffs, who knows. They were close last season.

I still think we are a quality top 6 forward (with size and strength, that can produce 20+ gs) away from being a legit playoff team. That's assuming Bogo, Kane and Pavs continue to develop and improve. Could Scheif be that guy? Maybe, one day.

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08-21-2012, 07:01 PM
  #69
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I've got zero qualms with THN's guess as to our position in the standings at the end of the season. It is just a guess on their part, nothing more. Any of the teams ranked as supposedly in the upper-echelon can easily be derailed by an injury to a key player or two, and it will surely happen to one or more of those teams. Just looking at our division alone, Carolina really switched up their team chemistry; it may not work - given their weak defense. Florida could easily fall apart. Washington haven't improved. Tampa - meh.

I think the Jets have really addressed a weakness down the middle by adding Jokinen into the mix; it takes some pressure off of Little and moves Burmistrov down in the order, where he will also be less exposed as a result. I kind of like their mix upfront now in fact, am unsure about the D, and am a little worried about the goaltending. Pavs needs to be a bit more consistent and stop giving up the occasional softie.

I could see them finishing either in third or even in 14th. No biggie either way, really. Regardless, it sure beats not having a team at all.

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08-21-2012, 08:05 PM
  #70
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gump Hasek View Post
I've got zero qualms with THN's guess as to our position in the standings at the end of the season. It is just a guess on their part, nothing more. Any of the teams ranked as supposedly in the upper-echelon can easily be derailed by an injury to a key player or two, and it will surely happen to one or more of those teams. Just looking at our division alone, Carolina really switched up their team chemistry; it may not work - given their weak defense. Florida could easily fall apart. Washington haven't improved. Tampa - meh.

I think the Jets have really addressed a weakness down the middle by adding Jokinen into the mix; it takes some pressure off of Little and moves Burmistrov down in the order, where he will also be less exposed as a result. I kind of like their mix upfront now in fact, am unsure about the D, and am a little worried about the goaltending. Pavs needs to be a bit more consistent and stop giving up the occasional softie.

I could see them finishing either in third or even in 14th. No biggie either way, really. Regardless, it sure beats not having a team at all.
Although I'm a bit more sure on the D and less on Pavs, I pretty much agree 100%. Just thought this needed repeating.
Personally, all I think this team needs is:
*Youth core to get stronger/better
*Little or Burmi (or Sheif) to own that 1C spot
*A PK/shutdown upgrade on Hainsey (or could be all minutes guy like Bogo)
*Pavs to play like last December pretty much all the time
...And you got a anual playoff team

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08-21-2012, 08:32 PM
  #71
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Although I'm a bit more sure on the D and less on Pavs, I pretty much agree 100%. Just thought this needed repeating.
Personally, all I think this team needs is:
*Youth core to get stronger/better
*Little or Burmi (or Sheif) to own that 1C spot
*A PK/shutdown upgrade on Hainsey (or could be all minutes guy like Bogo)
*Pavs to play like last December pretty much all the time
...And you got a anual playoff team
I would add this season if our 3rd line goes north of 120 points and we avoid a key season ending type injury in our top 6 fwds I believe we make the playoffs. if our 3rd line goes North of 135 points i think we win our division. With that formula our top 9 forwards would be really balanced and we would be a tough road team as well (hard to match up against and shutdown).

Of coarse we will live and die by Pavs but a productive (pts listed), competitive, gritty, defensively sound, possession type 3rd line (Poni Welly/Burmi Antro) would add at least 10 to 12 points (5 or 6 wins) to last years totals IMHO.

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08-21-2012, 08:33 PM
  #72
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I have no idea where the Jets are going to finish - could be 3rd in the East, could be 14th. One thing is for sure: the line-up has improved enough that they're going to be very fun to watch, and I feel the battle for a playoff spot will be even more intense this year.

Should be fun!

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08-22-2012, 09:23 AM
  #73
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ps241 View Post
I would add this season if our 3rd line goes north of 120 points and we avoid a key season ending type injury in our top 6 fwds I believe we make the playoffs. if our 3rd line goes North of 135 points i think we win our division. With that formula our top 9 forwards would be really balanced and we would be a tough road team as well (hard to match up against and shutdown).

Of coarse we will live and die by Pavs but a productive (pts listed), competitive, gritty, defensively sound, possession type 3rd line (Poni Welly/Burmi Antro) would add at least 10 to 12 points (5 or 6 wins) to last years totals IMHO.
The 3rd line will not score 120 points. There isn't even a remote chance that happens.

Zero team had that kind of offence from their 3rd line last year. Not Pittsburgh, not Boston, not the Flyers. 3rd lines don't get enough ice time and they surely don't get enough powerplay time to put up that kind of production.

138 forwards scored 40 points or more last year, that is less than 5 per team.

191 players scored 30 points of more last year, that is about 6.4 per team.

If the 3rd line scores a combined 90 points, the Jets will be in pretty good shape.

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08-22-2012, 10:35 AM
  #74
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Quote:
Originally Posted by truck View Post
The 3rd line will not score 120 points. There isn't even a remote chance that happens.

Zero team had that kind of offence from their 3rd line last year. Not Pittsburgh, not Boston, not the Flyers. 3rd lines don't get enough ice time and they surely don't get enough powerplay time to put up that kind of production.

138 forwards scored 40 points or more last year, that is less than 5 per team.

191 players scored 30 points of more last year, that is about 6.4 per team.

If the 3rd line scores a combined 90 points, the Jets will be in pretty good shape.

I could see all 4 of Poni, Antro, Welly and Burmi potentially being in the 35-40 range as many of them will get top6 mins and some PP time. The question is which ones it will be. Also, I'm sure Noel will role the lines more since we look more like a team that scores in community than top end elite talent (like the 2 of the 3 examples you gave).

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08-22-2012, 10:43 AM
  #75
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I wouldn't be surprised at all if our entire top 9 (Ladd, Wheeler, Kane, Jokinen, Little, Antropov, Ponikarovsky, Burmistrov, Wellwood) produced 35-40+ points.

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