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Ryan O'Reilly

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Old
08-09-2012, 07:03 PM
  #76
RTN
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seanlinden View Post
It's impossible to guage O'Reilly's trade value without a contract.

The real question is -- what is the Avs breaking point on a deal for him?

We've gotta remember, that his value will remain close to his offer sheet compensation, because that offer sheet compensation will be the point at which teams weren't willing to give more... while O'Reilly will likely pursue self interest in getting the best possible deal with the Avs or others.

If he gets an offer sheet at $4.5m, do the Avs keep him or take the 1st + 3rd?

What about $5.5m for a 1st, 2nd and 3rd?
What about $6.5m 2 1sts, a 2nd and 3rd?

I suspect the breaking point for Colorado happens somewhere in the 5s, so the question is -- is another team prepared to offer more, and if so, that pegs his value at 2 1sts, a 2nd and a 3rd.

From a Leaf perspective, I'd offer the Avs choice of Bozak/Lombardi/Kadri/Franson or a 2 year offer sheet at $5.25m... but I suspect that O'Reilly can do better than that from the Avs, if not others as well. I guess the real question is whether you view him as a great checking centre who can put up 50-60 points, or an up and coming top line centre capable of 70+ while being solid defensively.
Some of those are quite the choice. I really doubt teams are willing to give ROR 5+ million.

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08-09-2012, 07:27 PM
  #77
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Originally Posted by jfisher6 View Post
It's pretty awesome that the Leafs fans are still offering these kind of packages for our core players. I admire your persistence.

That said, take a look at the Chicago fellow offering a deal involving Patrick Kane. That's a deal we would seriously consider and most likely do. Think about doing deals styled like that. You know, giving up a player who is actually good in an area of need for the team you are trading with, for the good player you want from said team.
Thanks, I try. I do think something arouund ROR and Kane is pretty fair for both. But, even though I'm a huge ROR fan, I still wouldn't do it straight up. I think both sides add sttuff. I know Landeskog looked pretty good at the World championships on a line with Stalbeerg and Kruger. What is a fair deal with ROR for Kane and Kruger or Stalberg? What else would the Avs have to give?

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08-09-2012, 08:04 PM
  #78
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Originally Posted by RTN View Post
Some of those are quite the choice. I really doubt teams are willing to give ROR 5+ million.
Well... if teams (presumably, Avs included) aren't willing to give ROR 5+ million, what makes you think he's worth more than a 1st + 3rd round pick to them?

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08-09-2012, 08:36 PM
  #79
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I don't think he is available. By all accounts Avs are really happy with him and he is happy to be an Avs player.

Offer sheets are extremely rare because it pretty much never has a chance to be successful unless it's a huge overpayment or the team holding the players rights is limited financially. No one is going to wildly overpay O'Reilly nor is Avs vulnerable financially.

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08-09-2012, 08:43 PM
  #80
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Originally Posted by IWantSakicAsMyGM View Post
If ROR decided he wanted out, he really wouldn't be ROR. O'Reilly seems to me to be a team first kind of guy. I'm not saying he wouldn't sign somewhere else as a UFA, but I just don't see him demanding a trade because he's not happy with his playing time or something like that.

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08-09-2012, 09:05 PM
  #81
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Originally Posted by seanlinden View Post
Well... if teams (presumably, Avs included) aren't willing to give ROR 5+ million, what makes you think he's worth more than a 1st + 3rd round pick to them?
How long have you been watching hockey? RFA compensation doesn't set the value. If someone signs ROR to a 5+ million than they're taking a risk. He's a great young player, but there's no way someone will overpay.

A team signing him to an offer sheet would be giving up more than just a 1st and a 3rd, they'd also be overpaying for a young player. I think ROR is going to be a good player, but there have been most skilled players who have fallen flat a couple years after a good season.

If a team offers ROR $5+ million, then every time one of their players has a big year, they'll be looking for a big payday.

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08-09-2012, 09:26 PM
  #82
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Originally Posted by RTN View Post
How long have you been watching hockey? RFA compensation doesn't set the value. If someone signs ROR to a 5+ million than they're taking a risk. He's a great young player, but there's no way someone will overpay.

A team signing him to an offer sheet would be giving up more than just a 1st and a 3rd, they'd also be overpaying for a young player. I think ROR is going to be a good player, but there have been most skilled players who have fallen flat a couple years after a good season.

If a team offers ROR $5+ million, then every time one of their players has a big year, they'll be looking for a big payday.
In the case of RFA's, it absolutely sets the guideline.

Let's not forget, O'Reilly, just like every other NHL player at the end of the day, is self interested. He wants to get the best deal for him at this present point in time. He's got an offer from the Avs, and he's got offers from other teams. The piece of paper he eventually signs will be the best, or quite close to the best deal for him.

If a team offers ROR $5m, it's because they believe he can be the next Mike Richards-type centre. If somebody believes that, they're taking a risk, hockey is a game of risks. Any team that makes an offer for O'Reilly is taking a risk, just like the Avs are taking a risk by declining trade offers for him.

Let's play out a simplified scenario here... lets say there are only 2 teams who want O'Reilly -- Colorado and Toronto, and that we work with the possibility of only a 3-year deal. Colorado feels he's only worth $4m on a 3 year deal, Toronto feels he's worth $5m while giving up a 1st + 3rd. O'Reilly's going to sign that offer sheet because it's the best deal for him, and Toronto's going to max out their willingness to pay because they want the best chances of landing that player.

Colorado then has to decide what's more valuable, O'Reilly at $5m x 3, or a 1st + 3rd. Toronto made the decision that they'd rather have him at that price, but not more. By definition, he really isn't worth any more than that... because no team was willing to pay more than that for O'Reilly. If they were, they would offer it directly to him, and as a player's salary goes up, they're value in terms of assets to a team goes down.

Obviously, it's not a perfectly fluid market and there are opportunites for the teams to collude slightly to lower O'Reilly's salary... but the compensation does set a benchmark. What you seem to be saying is that he's not worth $5m, but what makes you think that he's worth more than the equivalent compensation value? If he's not worth $5m to the Avs, then a team can get him for even less than that value.


Last edited by seanlinden: 08-09-2012 at 09:33 PM.
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08-09-2012, 09:32 PM
  #83
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Obviously no one believes he would be moved, but I would think the Staal package would be a good reference point. Maybe Reilly, Kulemin, Ross package?

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08-09-2012, 09:41 PM
  #84
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Originally Posted by seanlinden View Post
In the case of RFA's, it absolutely sets the guideline.

Let's not forget, O'Reilly, just like every other NHL player at the end of the day, is self interested. He wants to get the best deal for him at this present point in time. He's got an offer from the Avs, and he's got offers from other teams. The piece of paper he eventually signs will be the best, or quite close to the best deal for him.

If a team offers ROR $5m, it's because they believe he can be the next Mike Richards-type centre. If somebody believes that, they're taking a risk, hockey is a game of risks. Any team that makes an offer for O'Reilly is taking a risk, just like the Avs are taking a risk by declining trade offers for him.

Let's play out a simplified scenario here... lets say there are only 2 teams who want O'Reilly -- Colorado and Toronto, and that we work with the possibility of only a 3-year deal. Colorado feels he's only worth $4m on a 3 year deal, Toronto feels he's worth $5m while giving up a 1st + 3rd. O'Reilly's going to sign that offer sheet because it's the best deal for him, and Toronto's going to max out their willingness to pay because they want the best chances of landing that player.

Colorado then has to decide what's more valuable, O'Reilly at $5m x 3, or a 1st + 3rd. Toronto made the decision that they'd rather have him at that price, but not more. By definition, he really isn't worth any more than that... because no team was willing to pay more than that for O'Reilly. If they were, they would offer it directly to him, and as a player's salary goes up, they're value in terms of assets to a team goes down.

Obviously, it's not a perfectly fluid market and there are opportunites for the teams to collude slightly to lower O'Reilly's salary... but the compensation does set a benchmark. What you seem to be saying is that he's not worth $5m, but what makes you think that he's worth more than the equivalent compensation value? If he's not worth $5m to the Avs, then a team can get him for even less than that value.
I'm not even going to discuss it with you. Not worth the time.

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08-09-2012, 10:06 PM
  #85
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Originally Posted by frankthetank91 View Post
I hope this won't turn into a crapfest, I know Avs fans are crazy protective over Ryan O'Reilly.

I'm not delusional, and I know players have signed way later(Doughty) and for the record Avs fans have no reason to trade ROR but let's say contract negotiations aren't working out and he wants out, what is his value?

Plz no Crosby-type value, the guy is good but come on.

From the Leafs i'd offer:

1st round pick 2013
Cody Franson
Tim Connolly
Clarke MacArthur

Since you guys have Staz and Duchene, Connolly is a serviceable 3C. Franson is a good young d-man can play top4. Hear you guys need help on LW and Mac is a dependable, heart on his sleeve type player that is good for 20goals-20assists at least, preferably 2nd line. 1st rounder speaks for itself.

Thoughts, changes, adjustments?

I come in peace, leave your snarky LOLZ LEAF FANZ UR NOT GETTING HIM comments out the door
Here are a few of the issues I see with this deal.

1) ROR is a young (21 years old) Centre who just lead his team in scoring last season. He looks to be a very complete player and IMHO has Kesler type potential - a little less speed, but better offensively at a younger age. Players of this age and proven NHL ability are not traded very often unless a more established player is coming back - ie Voracek + landed Carter, Simmonds + landed Richards so if ROR was to be moved I'd assume the Avs would be looking at an ROR+ for a Yandle or Ryan type player (credit these 2 names to an earlier post).

2) Your package includes 2 players on the last year of their contracts before they become UFA's, a pick and a player who seems to have the tools but has been unable to show the consistency required to be a top 4 Dman. This is not a very enticing package for the Avs. Basically it's like offering 4 Honda Civics for a Porsche, sure together the pieces may "add up" to equal value but it really isn't worth the loss of the better player (car).

3) The Avs really need a top pairing LHD to play with Johnson and a top line winger. The OP does not address either of those needs. MacA isn't an improvement over Landeskog, Downie, Hejduk or Parenteau so he has very little value to the Avs. Connolly has been average at best in his last couple seasons, can't seem to stay healthy, is an upcoming UFA and is getting paid nearly 5 million a season so I can't see any reason the Avs would want to add him to their roster. Franson would be competing with Wilson, O'Brien, O'Byrne, Elliott, Hejda and Barrie for D spot #'s 3-6, and I don't think he's a clear cut improvement over these players so again hardly worth losing your top scorer for. The 1st is a nice piece but not enough of a nice piece to make this deal happen.

So to summarize - Avs say no, not enough talent coming back, too much risk in taking 2 UFA's to-be and last and most importantly the OP doesn't address the Avs needs.

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Old
08-09-2012, 10:17 PM
  #86
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Originally Posted by Boondock View Post
Here are a few of the issues I see with this deal.

1) ROR is a young (21 years old) Centre who just lead his team in scoring last season. He looks to be a very complete player and IMHO has Kesler type potential - a little less speed, but better offensively at a younger age. Players of this age and proven NHL ability are not traded very often unless a more established player is coming back - ie Voracek + landed Carter, Simmonds + landed Richards so if ROR was to be moved I'd assume the Avs would be looking at an ROR+ for a Yandle or Ryan type player (credit these 2 names to an earlier post).

2) Your package includes 2 players on the last year of their contracts before they become UFA's, a pick and a player who seems to have the tools but has been unable to show the consistency required to be a top 4 Dman. This is not a very enticing package for the Avs. Basically it's like offering 4 Honda Civics for a Porsche, sure together the pieces may "add up" to equal value but it really isn't worth the loss of the better player (car).

3) The Avs really need a top pairing LHD to play with Johnson and a top line winger. The OP does not address either of those needs. MacA isn't an improvement over Landeskog, Downie, Hejduk or Parenteau so he has very little value to the Avs. Connolly has been average at best in his last couple seasons, can't seem to stay healthy, is an upcoming UFA and is getting paid nearly 5 million a season so I can't see any reason the Avs would want to add him to their roster. Franson would be competing with Wilson, O'Brien, O'Byrne, Elliott, Hejda and Barrie for D spot #'s 3-6, and I don't think he's a clear cut improvement over these players so again hardly worth losing your top scorer for. The 1st is a nice piece but not enough of a nice piece to make this deal happen.

So to summarize - Avs say no, not enough talent coming back, too much risk in taking 2 UFA's to-be and last and most importantly the OP doesn't address the Avs needs.
So you mean to tell me that the Avs would turn down a 1st (from a team that drafted 5th last year), Franson, Connolly and MacArthur for O'Reilly when they could lose him for a 1st + 3rd? or at the most, a 1st + 2nd + 3rd???

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08-09-2012, 10:27 PM
  #87
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Originally Posted by seanlinden View Post
So you mean to tell me that the Avs would turn down a 1st (from a team that drafted 5th last year), Franson, Connolly and MacArthur for O'Reilly when they could lose him for a 1st + 3rd? or at the most, a 1st + 2nd + 3rd???
First of all... He has to sign the said offer sheet, second... There is less of a chance that Toronto has a top 5 pick with JVR added to the roster. On top of that adding O'Reilly... Plus possibly Luongo?

Yeah... I doubt Toronto would be a lottery team again with all those pieces added. Third... Your assuming he is actually worth 5M per year which I don't believe to be the case or he would of already gotten an offer sheet like that.

So yeah... They would turn down that offer every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Get real...

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08-09-2012, 10:29 PM
  #88
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Originally Posted by seanlinden View Post
So you mean to tell me that the Avs would turn down a 1st (from a team that drafted 5th last year), Franson, Connolly and MacArthur for O'Reilly when they could lose him for a 1st + 3rd? or at the most, a 1st + 2nd + 3rd???
Considering offer sheets happen about as often as Haley's comet, I would think that this route is highly unlikely - to the point of being completely moot. However in an attempt to answer your highly unlikely scenario. I would think the Avs would match an offer sheet since they are not in any sort of cap trouble, or if negotiations where not going well then management would look to move him to a team that offered a hell of a lot more in terms of individual talent then the OP. It's not like the Avs would have only 2 option - the OP or the picks and if they did, then they match 8 days a week (8 day weeks are about as common as your offer sheet scenario).

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08-09-2012, 10:50 PM
  #89
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First of all... He has to sign the said offer sheet, second... There is less of a chance that Toronto has a top 5 pick with JVR added to the roster. On top of that adding O'Reilly... Plus possibly Luongo?

Yeah... I doubt Toronto would be a lottery team again with all those pieces added. Third... Your assuming he is actually worth 5M per year which I don't believe to be the case or he would of already gotten an offer sheet like that.

So yeah... They would turn down that offer every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Get real...
Of course he would have to... but O'Reilly, just like every other NHL player has to look out for his own self interest. In terms of Toronto's pick, it probably won't be top 5, but it probably would be preferred to the unknown 1st round pick they could get via offer sheet.

In terms of worth, a player is worth whatever somebody is willing to pay. In the case of Toronto, we've got $9m in space with only Franson to sign. Adding O'Reilly would quite easily displace $3.5m in Lombardi (if he hasn't been already) and likely $1.5m in Bozak as well. It's of little concern on a relatively short term deal.

Furthermore, Toronto (and probably a bunch of other teams) would be best served giving him more money to minimize the assets lost via trade route. There are a ton of teams with a lot of money to spend right now.

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Originally Posted by Boondock View Post
Considering offer sheets happen about as often as Haley's comet, I would think that this route is highly unlikely - to the point of being completely moot. However in an attempt to answer your highly unlikely scenario. I would think the Avs would match an offer sheet since they are not in any sort of cap trouble, or if negotiations where not going well then management would look to move him to a team that offered a hell of a lot more in terms of individual talent then the OP. It's not like the Avs would have only 2 option - the OP or the picks and if they did, then they match 8 days a week (8 day weeks are about as common as your offer sheet scenario).
We've had 1 substantial one this year already. The reason they're rare isn't because of a lack of discussions. They're rare for 3 reasons -- 1. Many players would rather pursue the arbitration route, while teams will block offer sheets by taking their players to arbitration. 2. Often times makes more sense for the teams to come to a trade amicably. 3- The threat of an offer sheet is enough for the player to get close to his fair market value from his existing team.

Ignoring the possibility of an offer sheet leads teams to situations like Nashville where they are forced to match an offer sheet they can't afford.

For the Avs, it's not about cap, it's about salary. They're a budget team.... and in terms of matching, do you believe that the Avs match a deal worth a $5m 2-3 year deal for O'Reilly?? From a Toronto perspective, that sounds a heck of a lot better than moving MacArthur, Connolly, Franson and a 1st to pay him upwards of $4m.


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08-09-2012, 11:00 PM
  #90
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Originally Posted by seanlinden View Post
Of course he would have to... but O'Reilly, just like every other NHL player has to look out for his own self interest. In terms of Toronto's pick, it probably won't be top 5, but it probably would be preferred to the unknown 1st round pick they could get via offer sheet.

In terms of worth, a player is worth whatever somebody is willing to pay. In the case of Toronto, we've got $9m in space with only Franson to sign. Adding O'Reilly would quite easily displace $3.5m in Lombardi (if he hasn't been already) and likely $1.5m in Bozak as well. It's of little concern on a relatively short term deal.

Furthermore, Toronto (and probably a bunch of other teams) would be best served giving him more money to minimize the assets lost via trade route. There are a ton of teams with a lot of money to spend right now.



We've had 1 substantial one this year already.

Ignoring the possibility of an offer sheet leads teams to situations like Nashville where they are forced to match an offer sheet they can't afford.

For the Avs, it's not about cap, it's about salary. They're a budget team.... and in terms of matching, do you believe that the Avs match a deal worth a $5m 2-3 year deal for O'Reilly?? From a Toronto perspective, that sounds a heck of a lot better than moving MacArthur, Connolly, Franson and a 1st to pay him upwards of $4m.
Colorado is not a budget team and that comment pretty much shows your ignorance. We have a billionaire as an owner and have been rebuilding and smart with how we hand out our contracts. Just because a team does not give players like Connolly almost 5M a year does not mean they are a budget team. If you want to say that lately we have been a team who is frugal or smart with how we hand out contracts. Then that would probably be more accurate. If the contract was that short then I can pretty much guarantee you that Colorado would match it.

You're making a lot of assumptions and most if not all of them are in the leafs favor that is for sure... But I don't really know why I am surprised because of how consistently ridiculous any trade discussion with leafs fans has been regarding any of our centers.

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08-09-2012, 11:05 PM
  #91
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Originally Posted by seanlinden View Post
Of course he would have to... but O'Reilly, just like every other NHL player has to look out for his own self interest. In terms of Toronto's pick, it probably won't be top 5, but it probably would be preferred to the unknown 1st round pick they could get via offer sheet.

In terms of worth, a player is worth whatever somebody is willing to pay. In the case of Toronto, we've got $9m in space with only Franson to sign. Adding O'Reilly would quite easily displace $3.5m in Lombardi (if he hasn't been already) and likely $1.5m in Bozak as well. It's of little concern on a relatively short term deal.

Furthermore, Toronto (and probably a bunch of other teams) would be best served giving him more money to minimize the assets lost via trade route. There are a ton of teams with a lot of money to spend right now.



We've had 1 substantial one this year already. The reason they're rare isn't because of a lack of discussions. They're rare for 3 reasons -- 1. Many players would rather pursue the arbitration route, while teams will block offer sheets by taking their players to arbitration. 2. Often times makes more sense for the teams to come to a trade amicably. 3- The threat of an offer sheet is enough for the player to get close to his fair market value from his existing team.

Ignoring the possibility of an offer sheet leads teams to situations like Nashville where they are forced to match an offer sheet they can't afford.

For the Avs, it's not about cap, it's about salary. They're a budget team.... and in terms of matching, do you believe that the Avs match a deal worth a $5m 2-3 year deal for O'Reilly?? From a Toronto perspective, that sounds a heck of a lot better than moving MacArthur, Connolly, Franson and a 1st to pay him upwards of $4m.
So you think Colorado is better off taking MacA's 3.25, Connolly's 4.75, Franson's somewhere around 1 million for a total 9 million for 1 year then have only Franson and the pick then to match a 5 million a year offer sheet on their leading scorer. Colorado matches no questions.

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08-09-2012, 11:41 PM
  #92
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Originally Posted by Boondock View Post
So you think Colorado is better off taking MacA's 3.25, Connolly's 4.75, Franson's somewhere around 1 million for a total 9 million for 1 year then have only Franson and the pick then to match a 5 million a year offer sheet on their leading scorer. Colorado matches no questions.
Post of the year.

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08-09-2012, 11:46 PM
  #93
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Originally Posted by seanlinden View Post
Of course he would have to... but O'Reilly, just like every other NHL player has to look out for his own self interest. In terms of Toronto's pick, it probably won't be top 5, but it probably would be preferred to the unknown 1st round pick they could get via offer sheet.

In terms of worth, a player is worth whatever somebody is willing to pay. In the case of Toronto, we've got $9m in space with only Franson to sign. Adding O'Reilly would quite easily displace $3.5m in Lombardi (if he hasn't been already) and likely $1.5m in Bozak as well. It's of little concern on a relatively short term deal.

Furthermore, Toronto (and probably a bunch of other teams) would be best served giving him more money to minimize the assets lost via trade route. There are a ton of teams with a lot of money to spend right now.



We've had 1 substantial one this year already. The reason they're rare isn't because of a lack of discussions. They're rare for 3 reasons -- 1. Many players would rather pursue the arbitration route, while teams will block offer sheets by taking their players to arbitration. 2. Often times makes more sense for the teams to come to a trade amicably. 3- The threat of an offer sheet is enough for the player to get close to his fair market value from his existing team.

Ignoring the possibility of an offer sheet leads teams to situations like Nashville where they are forced to match an offer sheet they can't afford.

For the Avs, it's not about cap, it's about salary. They're a budget team.... and in terms of matching, do you believe that the Avs match a deal worth a $5m 2-3 year deal for O'Reilly?? From a Toronto perspective, that sounds a heck of a lot better than moving MacArthur, Connolly, Franson and a 1st to pay him upwards of $4m.
Are you an insider or a former scout? Because honestly, you are making so many silly assumptions it's making my head spin. Stop speaking on behalf of players lol, like how they look out for themselves, how they PREFER arbitration. Source please?

My first thought was that Ryan has an agent, and his agent is the one handling the contract discussions with Colorado. Ryan has been doing charity work, golfing, and doing other stuff in Ontario this summer, he probably hasn't had a chance to care about his contract status. He has been quoted in the Denver Post to have said he wants to remain here and looks forward to his new contract.

Rumor has it he even changed numbers (37 --> 90) and I don't think you worry about your number on your team if you aren't planning on staying.


Just please, Seanlinden, stop speaking on behalf of O'Reilly like you know how he's thinking (especially that he and other players negotiate their own contracts (excluding Ovechkin) which they do not)

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Old
08-10-2012, 01:57 AM
  #94
Sabretip
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Originally Posted by DatsyukOwns View Post
O'Reilly means a lot to the Avs. His williness to get better, his work ethic, his attuide is everything you want in a player.
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Originally Posted by IWantSakicAsMyGM View Post
O'Reilly seems to me to be a team first kind of guy.
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Our GM doesn't give out big long term contracts.
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Originally Posted by CobraAcesS View Post
We have a billionaire as an owner and have been rebuilding and smart with how we hand out our contracts.
So why haven't the Avs re-signed him yet? It seems odd that, for such a valuable core piece and building block, O'Reilly is still unsigned when the Avs clearly aren't suffering any cap space issues.


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08-10-2012, 02:59 AM
  #95
goblinmedics
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Originally Posted by Sabretip View Post
So why haven't the Avs re-signed him yet? It seems odd that, for such a valuable core piece and building block, O'Reilly is still unsigned when the Avs clearly aren't suffering any cap space issues.

That's not how contract negotiations actually go.

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08-10-2012, 04:00 AM
  #96
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I find it interesting to see how different people value players. So what exactly sets his value to Colorado? Obviously you don't want to pay your potential top player big money before you know he can do it consistently. Hence RoR still being unsigned as he really hasn't proven that he is a top player in this league yet. Yes he was Colorado's top player last year but it isn't like he put up 70 points, he put up 55, in his best year with arguably the best wingers on the team to help him right? I understand that the fans love him and he has great potential and is already a leader on the team. But in reality he is still being projected. Another value marker is what is his ceiling? Can RoR put up 70-80 a year? Top centers should be in the realm of that level of production. If he can't does he become expendable? Because both Duchene and Stastny have proven they can. If he can't, do you pay a 3rd line center 5+ mill a year? If you don't then one of the centers gets moved. So instead of falling victim to an offer sheet you trade for comparable or greater assets that will likely help sooner rather than in 3-4 years like a draft picks. I really don't think the situation is so much about money but proper pay scale and structure for the team.

If anything Pittsburgh proved that a team cannot hold onto 3 top 6 centers for very long and in 2 more years if RoR puts up similar numbers to this year then you could likely see a return close to what Staal got. I also think it should be noted that Carolina was able to give up that much for him because they KNEW they could resign him with his brother on the team. I don't think RoR holds that value now. It is also very possible if RoR continues to grow that Colorado lets Stastny walk in Free Agency or trade him before.

RoR won't be traded now not because he is worth so much, but because he is worth so little. Colorado won't be able to get a good return for him because he is relatively unproven. As such he is worth more to the team on it rather than a trade piece. If he does get moved it is likely because Colorado feels his Salary demands don't fit the pay structure for the teams future. As a rebuilding team, it could make sense to move him for a player that better fits a 3rd line center role while also adding Prospects/picks to make depth stronger. Wasn't Colorado ranked like 24th in the league in prospect quality recently by ESPN? Honestly though I think all of this spells the end of Stastny's time in Colorado rather than RoR's. It would be easier to maximize Stastny's value over the other two while continuing to build for the future as well as stabilizing the top 6 center position.

Sorry rambled on a bit.

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08-10-2012, 06:29 AM
  #97
seanlinden
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Originally Posted by CobraAcesS View Post
Colorado is not a budget team and that comment pretty much shows your ignorance. We have a billionaire as an owner and have been rebuilding and smart with how we hand out our contracts. Just because a team does not give players like Connolly almost 5M a year does not mean they are a budget team. If you want to say that lately we have been a team who is frugal or smart with how we hand out contracts. Then that would probably be more accurate. If the contract was that short then I can pretty much guarantee you that Colorado would match it.

You're making a lot of assumptions and most if not all of them are in the leafs favor that is for sure... But I don't really know why I am surprised because of how consistently ridiculous any trade discussion with leafs fans has been regarding any of our centers.
Yet that bilionaire owner set his budget last year close to the cap floor.... what's changed in the last year to indicate that they don't have a budget?

It's not a matter of assumptions, it's a matter of reality. O'Reilly has a ton of offer sheet options because there's a ton of teams that are highly liquid in terms of cash to spend, many of whom need centres. That's going to help him get a maximum value contract, which in turn will decrease his trade value to the offer sheet compensation.

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Are you an insider or a former scout? Because honestly, you are making so many silly assumptions it's making my head spin. Stop speaking on behalf of players lol, like how they look out for themselves, how they PREFER arbitration. Source please?

My first thought was that Ryan has an agent, and his agent is the one handling the contract discussions with Colorado. Ryan has been doing charity work, golfing, and doing other stuff in Ontario this summer, he probably hasn't had a chance to care about his contract status. He has been quoted in the Denver Post to have said he wants to remain here and looks forward to his new contract.

Rumor has it he even changed numbers (37 --> 90) and I don't think you worry about your number on your team if you aren't planning on staying.


Just please, Seanlinden, stop speaking on behalf of O'Reilly like you know how he's thinking (especially that he and other players negotiate their own contracts (excluding Ovechkin) which they do not)
You don't need to be an insider to realize the options that players have.

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So you think Colorado is better off taking MacA's 3.25, Connolly's 4.75, Franson's somewhere around 1 million for a total 9 million for 1 year then have only Franson and the pick then to match a 5 million a year offer sheet on their leading scorer. Colorado matches no questions.
So now we've established that he is worth $5m to the Avs? In terms of arbitration, you've got 20+ guys that file every single year, and when they do that, they surrender offer sheet rights. When you have 20+ arbitration filings every year, and 1 or 2 offer sheets, it's obvious that they prefer arbitration.

ROR has an agent, just like 95%+ of NHL players, that agent's job is to do what's best for him financially, acting on his behalf. As for him saying in the Denver Post that he wants to stay, what do you expect him to say?

I've never said that he doesn't want to remain, I'm simply saying that he, like everybody else in the league, has to look out for #1. With so many liquid teams, he's going to max out his contract value, which is going to put his trade value very close to his offer sheet value.

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08-10-2012, 06:48 AM
  #98
Freudian
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Originally Posted by Sabretip View Post
So why haven't the Avs re-signed him yet? It seems odd that, for such a valuable core piece and building block, O'Reilly is still unsigned when the Avs clearly aren't suffering any cap space issues.

For the same reason Kings didn't sign Doughty last July? The team and the player haven't agreed on salary and term yet. It doesn't seem that either side is in a hurry nor worried about it.

The second contract isn't automatically the player-has-no-leverage-has-to-sign-a-cheap-two-year-deal it was in the past. We see more and more longer second contracts and for a player like O'Reilly (future Selke quality play with an offensive ceiling that is very hard to predict) is not all that easy to put a proper value on.

O'Reilly will most likely be signed well before training camp.

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08-10-2012, 06:50 AM
  #99
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@ seanlinden: you might stop posting or you just embarass yourself even further.

You are saying that the Avs should take a horrible Leafs offer which would add more salary than a matched ROR-offersheet because they are presumably a budget team which could not afford to match a high Leafs offersheet and that essentialy cap dump+ depth winger + spare dman + 1st is better than the offersheet compensation.

Yeah sure.....
Avs would match in an instant. And even if not they would accept the offer sheet compensation. Either way they would probably offersheet any half decent Leafs RFA from now until Burke is fired....

I mean Burke almost got into a fight over one of his players getting offersheeted. I know that it had to to with him getting blindsided but there is just no way that he would offersheet ROR. Especially when he has probably an eye on Stastny.

Another sticking point would be that ROR does not seem like the guy who would screw the Avs over. He will wear atleast an A soon and he has great chemistry with the guys. I don't see him wanting to leave.

So you should better go back to proposing ridiculous Stastny to TOR proposals again. At least you could always reason that his father wants Paul out and that he has such a burden of a contract and that the Avs can't wait to get rid of his big salary....


Last edited by JoemAvs: 08-10-2012 at 06:56 AM.
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08-10-2012, 06:53 AM
  #100
Ivan13
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Originally Posted by seanlinden View Post
Yet that bilionaire owner set his budget last year close to the cap floor.... what's changed in the last year to indicate that they don't have a budget?

It's not a matter of assumptions, it's a matter of reality. O'Reilly has a ton of offer sheet options because there's a ton of teams that are highly liquid in terms of cash to spend, many of whom need centres. That's going to help him get a maximum value contract, which in turn will decrease his trade value to the offer sheet compensation.
They should've signed Leino and a bunch of other mediocre players just to show they're willing to spend without thinking about what future brings in terms of contract extensions to their young players, possible cap reduction in the new CBA etc. Terrific logic.

Quote:

You don't need to be an insider to realize the options that players have.

So now we've established that he is worth $5m to the Avs? In terms of arbitration, you've got 20+ guys that file every single year, and when they do that, they surrender offer sheet rights. When you have 20+ arbitration filings every year, and 1 or 2 offer sheets, it's obvious that they prefer arbitration.

ROR has an agent, just like 95%+ of NHL players, that agent's job is to do what's best for him financially, acting on his behalf. As for him saying in the Denver Post that he wants to stay, what do you expect him to say?

I've never said that he doesn't want to remain, I'm simply saying that he, like everybody else in the league, has to look out for #1. With so many liquid teams, he's going to max out his contract value, which is going to put his trade value very close to his offer sheet value.
If you think that Avs will let him go for a 1st rounder and a 3rd rounder there's no helping you, it would take a trully insane offer sheet to pry Radar out of Denver.

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