weighted statistically to early pick buuuut as you stated... we got a chance of last as well
Here's how it broke down last time.
Teams were assigned 3 balls and subtracted one for every 1st overall pick and playoff appearance in last 3 seasons. (just for reference sake, I know you know garret).
Spot. Team (# of balls)
1. Pittsburgh (3)
2. Anaheim (2)
3. Carolina (2)
4. Minnesota (2)
5. Montreal (1)
6. Columbus (3)
7. Chicago (2)
8. Atlanta (2)
9. Ottawa (1)
10. Vancouver (1)
11. Los Angeles (2)
12. San Jose (1)
13. Buffalo (3)
14. Washington (1)
15. New York I (1)
16. New York R (3)
17. Phoenix (2)
18. Nashville (2)
19. Detroit (1)
20. Philadelphia (1)
21. Toronto (1)
22. Boston (1)
23. New Jersey (1)
24. St. Louis (1)
25. Edmonton (2)
26. Calgary (2)
27. Colorado (1)
28. Dallas (1)
29. Florida (1)
30. Tampa Bay (1)
So yes, it will most likely be a top 20 pick. But people thinking we are talking top 5 pick almost guaranteed with the adjusted lottery should probably temper their expectations. Could be 1st, could be 16th (like Rangers with 3 balls last time) or even 30th (which is unlikely, yes, but possible). I would not count on a top 5 pick at all.
If Fehr tries to put the cap back on the table the league should bring in replacements and start from scratch. **** it.
All this talk about scrapping the cap and cancelling the season--or 2 seasons--is bizarre and I don't buy it for a second, but it could galvanize the silent majority of players...that is, those who are not embarrassing themselves in Europe and Russia.
Someone needs to explain the math to them, cuz it's not hard. If NHL games stopped for 2 seasons, >30% of the players currently in the NHL would never play again (and the rest would never recover their losses). A year's lost play would probably kill the careers of 15%+.
Chris Thorburn is a prime example on the Jets. Tanner Glass is another, no longer with us, who comes to mind. I thought these were fighters who stood up for themselves and their mates. They'd better get cracking.
All this talk about scrapping the cap and cancelling the season--or 2 seasons--is bizarre and I don't buy it for a second, but it could galvanize the players...that is, those who are not embarrassing themselves in Europe and Russia.
Someone needs to explain the math to them, cuz it's not hard. If NHL games stopped for 2 seasons, >30% of the players currently in the NHL would never play again (and the rest would never recover their losses). A year's lost play would probably kill the careers of 15%+.
Chris Thorburn is a prime example on the Jets. Tanner Glass is another, no longer with us, who comes to mind. I thought these were fighters and stood up for their mates. They'd better get cracking.
All this talk about scrapping the cap and cancelling the season--or 2 seasons--is bizarre and I don't buy it for a second, but it could galvanize the silent majority of players...that is, those who are not embarrassing themselves in Europe and Russia.
Someone needs to explain the math to them, cuz it's not hard. If NHL games stopped for 2 seasons, >30% of the players currently in the NHL would never play again (and the rest would never recover their losses). A year's lost play would probably kill the careers of 15%+.
Chris Thorburn is a prime example on the Jets. Tanner Glass is another, no longer with us, who comes to mind. I thought these were fighters who stood up for themselves and their mates. They'd better get cracking.
Indeed. Fehr may speak for the players, but he answers to them. They put him in charge, much in the way the BOG put Bettman in charge. When they desire more emphasis on back to work, they'll put the screws to their respective talking boxes.
All this talk about scrapping the cap and cancelling the season--or 2 seasons--is bizarre and I don't buy it for a second, but it could galvanize the silent majority of players...that is, those who are not embarrassing themselves in Europe and Russia.
Someone needs to explain the math to them, cuz it's not hard. If NHL games stopped for 2 seasons, >30% of the players currently in the NHL would never play again (and the rest would never recover their losses). A year's lost play would probably kill the careers of 15%+.
Chris Thorburn is a prime example on the Jets. Tanner Glass is another, no longer with us, who comes to mind. I thought these were fighters who stood up for themselves and their mates. They'd better get cracking.
If 15% of current PA members drop out of the league each year, 45% (guys with 1 to 3 years left) will lose between 33% - 100% of their entire future NHL earnings if the lockout goes a whole year.
In terms of the Jets a 1 year lockout will probably mean the end of the NHL road for:
Antro
Poni
Miettinen
Hainsey (he may catch on elsewhere for far less money, but he turns 32 in March and he's not getting any younger...or better. It looks like he's angling for a cushy job with the PA at the end of his career anyway.)
And a 50% reduction in future career earnings for:
Thorburn
Jokinen
It probably already is the end for Eric Fehr and Randy Jones, lockout or not. A year off isn't going to help them, anyway.
Well the Alberta Labour board ruled in favor of the league today, a little egg in the face for Fehr and the PA. He is now 0 for 3 on that front. I wonder how long it takes for hos constituents to realise his methods arn't getting results. There has also been a change in the media lately, the PA is starting to take a lot more heat for their lack of negotiating.
the players still have a cheque coming in from escrow account. After that money dries up I think the 3rd and 4th liners will start to vote in favor for a deal,but that is likely 2 months away from happening. It just boggles my mind how these guys think. I am a union member and in our last negotiation lost of guys were talking strike over a few dollars per hour. A 6 month strike would take 50 years or more of my career to make up for those losses.All for pride, a false sense of entitlement, and principle. Those things don't put your kids through school. So suck it up you freakin whiners, you don't run the show.
Yep, pride and principles can be very expensive.... just ask any divorce lawyer people will spend 10 times what something is worth in legal fees just so they can get their way.....
and players would rather accept zero dollars than agree to something less than what they feel they are worth...
Hearing Ladd, and others, really says to me... the players are stuck in 1957 when the owners really took advantage of the players. Needing to 'make a stand' for the benefit of players coming after you - really? That's the best argument you can make? Boys, the days when you were not compensated fairly - or generously - are over. It's not as bad as you make it out to be.
The pendulum has swung very much in favor of the players the last 2 decades. Their entitlement meter is still stuck on high, imo.
We got a decent chance at being #30 as well. Just saying.
There's a chance - but a slim chance - the Jets would pick #30, or even past 20. There's a very good chance they pick in top 20. There's a decent chance they pick in the top 10. But, counting on a top 5 pick, would likely lead to a lot of disappointment.
I'm sure if someone with a statistical bent, who had sometime on their hands, they could calculate the probability of the Jets selecting at each slot in the draft.
There's a chance - but a slim chance - the Jets would pick #30, or even past 20. There's a very good chance they pick in top 20. There's a decent chance they pick in the top 10. But, counting on a top 5 pick, would likely lead to a lot of disappointment.
I'm sure if someone with a statistical bent, who had sometime on their hands, they could calculate the probability of the Jets being selected at each slot in the draft.
Because we are not a floundering franchise on the brink of bankruptcy and ready to relocate.
Hearing Ladd, and others, really says to me... the players are stuck in 1957 when the owners really took advantage of the players. Needing to 'make a stand' for the benefit of players coming after you - really? That's the best argument you can make? Boys, the days when you were not compensated fairly - or generously - are over. It's not as bad as you make it out to be.
The pendulum has swung very much in favor of the players the last 2 decades. Their entitlement meter is still stuck on high, imo.
i had the same feeling after listening to them. They should be thankful to those guys from the 50's that paved the way for them. My grandfather went through multiple strikes as a plumber with 5 kids at home. These players get no pity from this guy.
I'm sure if someone with a statistical bent, who had sometime on their hands, they could calculate the probability of the Jets selecting at each slot in the draft.
You called??
Oh I just realized this is more annoying than I thought... because it depends on who picks before you... your chances for second pick are different if a 3 ball team gets the first pick or a 1 ball team gets the first pick... what did I get myself into
Ok so this was more annoying than it should of been... So here is the probability of the Jets (or any other 3 ball team) to get a particular pick:
"Best case scenario" is what the odds would be if all the teams with 3 balls (other than the Jets) got their picks first, then two balls, and then one balls. This tips the probability of an early pick.
"Worst case scenario" is what the odds would be if all the teams with 1 ball got their picks first, then the two balls, then the three balls. This tips the probability of a later pick.
So how you read it is the probability will be anywhere in between best and worst case scenario (no you can't just take the average):
Pick
Best
Worst
Top Pick
6.00
6.00
Top 2 Picks
12.00
11.76
Top 3 Picks
18.00
17.27
Top 5 Picks
30.00
27.60
Top 10 Picks
58.77
49.59
Top 20 Picks
93.99
79.51
Between 10-20
35.22
29.92
Between 20-30
6.01
20.49
Last pick
0.03
1.99
TEAMS WITH THREE BALLS (7)
Calgary, Carolina, Columbus, Dallas, Minnesota, Toronto, Winnipeg
TEAMS WITH TWO BALLS (6)
Anaheim, Colorado, Florida, New York (I), St. Louis, Tampa Bay
TEAMS WITH ONE BALL (17)
Boston, Buffalo, Chicago, Detroit, Edmonton, Los Angeles, Montreal, Nashville, New Jersey, New York (R), Ottawa, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Pittsburgh, San Jose, Vancouver, Washington
Last edited by garret9: 10-11-2012 at 12:08 AM.
Reason: I was reading from the wrong column... now it's right
Ok so this was more annoying than it should of been... So her is the probability of the Jets (or any other 3 ball team) to get a particular pick:
"Best case scenario" is what the odds would be if all the teams with 3 balls (other than the Jets) got their picks first, then two balls, and then on balls. This tips the probability of an early pick.
"Worst case scenario" is what the odds would be if all the teams with 1 ball got their picks first, then the two balls, then the three balls. This tips the probability of a later pick.
So how you read it is the probability will be anywhere in between best and worst case scenario (no you can't just take the average):
Pick
Best
Worst
Top Pick
6.00
6.00
Top 2 Picks
12.00
11.76
Top 3 Picks
18.00
17.27
Top 5 Picks
30.00
27.60
Top 10 Picks
58.77
49.59
Top 20 Picks
93.99
79.51
Between 10-20
35.22
29.92
Between 20-30
6.01
20.49
Last pick
0.03
1.99
TEAMS WITH THREE BALLS (7)
Calgary, Carolina, Columbus, Dallas, Minnesota, Toronto, Winnipeg
TEAMS WITH TWO BALLS (6)
Anaheim, Colorado, Florida, New York (I), St. Louis, Tampa Bay
TEAMS WITH ONE BALL (17)
Boston, Buffalo, Chicago, Detroit, Edmonton, Los Angeles, Montreal, Nashville, New Jersey, New York (R), Ottawa, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Pittsburgh, San Jose, Vancouver, Washington
I knew i could count on you garret9.
The odds of a top 5 pick are actually a bit higher than i thought. Now that doesn't mean that much either in a one time draft (Columbus had a 48% chance of retaining the #1 pick this past year and we all know what happened) but it is a bit better than what i thought.
Contrary to popular belief I do have a life! Unfortunately it's the terrible world of post-secondary education.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob E
The odds of a top 5 pick are actually a bit higher than i thought. Now that doesn't mean that much either in a one time draft (Columbus had a 48% chance of retaining the #1 pick this past year and we all know what happened) but it is a bit better than what i thought.
Thanks garret9.
A chance is a chance is a chance... anything could happen. It's about equally likely that any one of the 3 ball teams to pick 30 as it is for one particular team (say us) to get #1.
Contrary to popular belief I do have a life! Unfortunately it's the terrible world of post-secondary education.
A chance is a chance is a chance... anything could happen. It's about equally likely that any one of the 3 ball teams to pick 30 as it is for one particular team (say us) to get #1.
If i understand your numbers, its equally likely that a 3 ball team would pick in the 20-30 range as it would be to pick 1st.
Highly unlikely a 3 ball team would pick 30th. As the chances they would be picked along the way (with more balls in action) would continue to rise. Now it could happen, obviously, but highly unlikely, no?
Donald Fehr is still espousing the same rhetoric he was before. " it's a shame we can't hold negotiations while we're playing or even started them seriously 2 or 3 months ago."
It's your stalling tactics that forced us to miss these games, you imbecile. Quit your posturing and get a deal done.
If i understand your numbers, its equally likely that a 3 ball team would pick in the 20-30 range as it would be to pick 1st.
Highly unlikely a 3 ball team would pick 30th. As the chances they would be picked along the way (with more balls in action) would continue to rise. Now it could happen, obviously, but highly unlikely, no?
That's assuming the best case scenario. Assuming worst case scenario, it's almost 20% a 3 ball team could be picking in the bottom 10. Obviously neither scenario is likely to play out, so think somewhere in the middle (probably close to 12-15% overall chance of being bottom 10).
Now I agree, it is more likely that if they happen to use the same system in the event the season is wiped out that the Jets would likely draft top 15...but counting on a top 2 and penciling in MacKinnon or Jones (again this could change alot by season's end as well, just last year Grigorenko was considered 1b at this time) are being overly optimistic. 2 ball teams like EDM and CGY drafted 25th and 26th last time, and 3 ball NYR drafted 16th. In fact just 1 of the 4 teams who got 3 balls drafted top 5. Just saying let's not "want the season wiped out for Jones/MacKinnon" because it's just not that likely, our best odds have us exactly where we would expect to be if we played the season (picking 10-20).
I am at the point where I could care less about all this lockout. I don't care to read the stories about it, the headlines, nothing. It's all the same. We've been here before. I, like many others consider myself one of the biggest hockey fans you'll find, but at this point with yet another lockout I could really care less. In my opinion, it did not have to come to this. The two sides are "bargaining", "strategizing", "trying to play their cards right" etc.. to me, all they are is incompetent.
Wake me up when it's over and the puck is dropping.
people will spend 10 times what something is worth in legal fees just so they can get their way.....
