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Old
08-29-2012, 03:08 PM
  #201
Gm0ney
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob E View Post
The thing I can't get wrapped around my head is... If league revenues continue to increase, say at 4% annually, after 7 yrs, league revenues would be approaching $5 billion and the cap (even at 50%) would be creeping up to $85 mill/team. At current %'s, it would be close to $95 million per team.

Does the NHLPA believe that the majority of teams can afford that, no, they likely don't hence the revenue sharing focus. But for markets like Winnipeg - a well managed team, in a hockey crazy market that sells out its small arena at very high prices - that's a pretty steep cost. They likely will never spend to the ceiling, I realize, but that's an extremely high operating cost. I like the players, but I hope the league "wins" this CBA negotiation and reduces player costs dramatically.
Assuming a $3.3 billion starting point and 4% annual growth, after 7 years, league revenues would be about $4.3 billion.

With a 50/50 revenue split, the cap ceiling would be about $80 million, and the floor would be $64 million (calculated as plus/minus $8,000,000 from the midpoint).

Under the current CBA (57% of revenue goes to player salaries), the cap ceiling and floor would be $90 million and $74 million respectively.

Is it reasonable to expect league revenues to increase 4% per year on average over the next 7 years? Based on the estimates that the Jets generated about $112 million
in revenues last year, they'd need to be making $146 million in 7 years just to keep up (+$34 million annually). Where's all that money going to come from? If the team raises ticket/box prices at 4% on average, they'll be taking in an extra $19 million. Where does the other $15 million come from?

I think the Owners have to share a majority of the monetary concessions it receives from the NHLPA...

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08-29-2012, 03:48 PM
  #202
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gm0ney View Post
Assuming a $3.3 billion starting point and 4% annual growth, after 7 years, league revenues would be about $4.3 billion.

With a 50/50 revenue split, the cap ceiling would be about $80 million, and the floor would be $64 million (calculated as plus/minus $8,000,000 from the midpoint).

Under the current CBA (57% of revenue goes to player salaries), the cap ceiling and floor would be $90 million and $74 million respectively.

Is it reasonable to expect league revenues to increase 4% per year on average over the next 7 years? Based on the estimates that the Jets generated about $112 million
in revenues last year, they'd need to be making $146 million in 7 years just to keep up (+$34 million annually). Where's all that money going to come from? If the team raises ticket/box prices at 4% on average, they'll be taking in an extra $19 million. Where does the other $15 million come from?

I think the Owners have to share a majority of the monetary concessions it receives from the NHLPA...
Agreed, the owners will have to agree to a more comprehensive revenue sharing plan. I personaly dont think that will be much of an issue. Players suggeated $250 million a year, owners offered $200 millilon so they arnt far apart.


Last edited by Hammer Slammer: 08-29-2012 at 08:57 PM. Reason: fix quote
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Old
08-29-2012, 05:12 PM
  #203
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PA plans to counter tommorrow. This is very very encouraging sign.

ps241, I know you have miles more business experience than me and considering your earlier post, a counter offer here before the end of the week has to be great news eh?

EDIT: Also looks like I was wrong visa a vi HRR. PA wants to keep the definition the same

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=404094
Quote:
"Our preference is to keep the same definition of hockey related revenue," he [Fehr] said.


Last edited by Holden Caulfield: 08-29-2012 at 05:37 PM.
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Old
08-29-2012, 05:31 PM
  #204
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Holden Caulfield View Post
PA plans to counter tommorrow. This is very very encouraging sign.

ps241, I know you have miles more business experience than me and considering your earlier post, a counter offer here before the end of the week has to be great news eh?
I would think this is very encouraging news. There was a tweet where Fehr was quoted as saying that they are now close to being on the same page with regards to HRR. My guess is that the framework is now in place and that we'll see some back and forth negotiations on the revenue split and on systematic issues such as contract length etc.. I'm feeling pretty optimistic right now.

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Old
08-29-2012, 06:04 PM
  #205
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Holy ****, we might just have hockey by, like, November

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Old
08-29-2012, 08:06 PM
  #206
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Hockey will start on time.

Both sides want it.

Like Gary said, they want a fair deal... everyone (League and Players) know exactly where that common ground is. They will take it right down to the wire before it gets signed.

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Old
08-29-2012, 08:54 PM
  #207
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Holden Caulfield View Post
PA plans to counter tommorrow. This is very very encouraging sign.

ps241, I know you have miles more business experience than me and considering your earlier post, a counter offer here before the end of the week has to be great news eh?

EDIT: Also looks like I was wrong visa a vi HRR. PA wants to keep the definition the same

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=404094
Very encouraging as far as timing of response goes. I am guessing the owners caught the attention of the PA with their last offer and the PA feel there is a deal to be had now and it's time to pick up the pace as well. The next huge part though is what will the players counter be?? If it shows movement then this could start to come together fast IMHO

I am getting the sense Fehr is actually listening to the players and consulting allot, not just photo op stuff. translation he is gathering information, advising them, and more importantly for us fans he is listening to what his constituents want (big guess of coarse). It doesn't feel as autocratic, top down, zero sum as Goodenow's last stand. I am finally getting the sense that both sides are motivated and want to get a deal done. I quite like the phased in approach to getting to 50-50 (ish) and that leaves allot of room for creative solutions that can avoid a big short term claw back to players salaries while still moving the owners towards a more attractive long term solution. That is a nice carrot.

Just a word of caution though we do need to see the counter tomorrow by the PA, if they drop the system they used before and respond to the owners offer we are off to the races IMHO. if they resubmit a modified version of their style of proposal and somewhat reject what the Owners Last proposal we could be at this for a while. But this past few days has been very encouraging.


Last edited by ps241: 08-29-2012 at 10:17 PM.
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Old
08-29-2012, 11:23 PM
  #208
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gm0ney View Post
Assuming a $3.3 billion starting point and 4% annual growth, after 7 years, league revenues would be about $4.3 billion.

With a 50/50 revenue split, the cap ceiling would be about $80 million, and the floor would be $64 million (calculated as plus/minus $8,000,000 from the midpoint).

Under the current CBA (57% of revenue goes to player salaries), the cap ceiling and floor would be $90 million and $74 million respectively.

Is it reasonable to expect league revenues to increase 4% per year on average over the next 7 years? Based on the estimates that the Jets generated about $112 million
in revenues last year, they'd need to be making $146 million in 7 years just to keep up (+$34 million annually). Where's all that money going to come from? If the team raises ticket/box prices at 4% on average, they'll be taking in an extra $19 million. Where does the other $15 million come from?

I think the Owners have to share a majority of the monetary concessions it receives from the NHLPA...
I started with a higher hockey revenue $ - why? Not sure - so even at $3.3 billion in revenue, seven years out makes managing this balancing act very difficult.

Meaningful revenue sharing is one source of revenue. So would year after year playoff appearances (with multiple rounds). But counting on that as part of the equation isn't smart business.

I wonder how long it will take before 'discussions' are had about the size of MTSC and whether it needs to be expanded -preferably with mostly government money.

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Old
08-29-2012, 11:31 PM
  #209
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ps241 View Post
Very encouraging as far as timing of response goes. I am guessing the owners caught the attention of the PA with their last offer and the PA feel there is a deal to be had now and it's time to pick up the pace as well. The next huge part though is what will the players counter be?? If it shows movement then this could start to come together fast IMHO

I am getting the sense Fehr is actually listening to the players and consulting allot, not just photo op stuff. translation he is gathering information, advising them, and more importantly for us fans he is listening to what his constituents want (big guess of coarse). It doesn't feel as autocratic, top down, zero sum as Goodenow's last stand. I am finally getting the sense that both sides are motivated and want to get a deal done. I quite like the phased in approach to getting to 50-50 (ish) and that leaves allot of room for creative solutions that can avoid a big short term claw back to players salaries while still moving the owners towards a more attractive long term solution. That is a nice carrot.

Just a word of caution though we do need to see the counter tomorrow by the PA, if they drop the system they used before and respond to the owners offer we are off to the races IMHO. if they resubmit a modified version of their style of proposal and somewhat reject what the Owners Last proposal we could be at this for a while. But this past few days has been very encouraging.

Hope you're right ps241.

But i think, though the NHLPA will appreciate the movement back to 'center' by the owners, in terms of % of revenue, i don't see the players taking considerably less than where they are currently. Still too big of a divide. They'll be at this a while longer.

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Old
08-29-2012, 11:35 PM
  #210
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I'm still calling January as I said last June, and thats totally based on nothing or no source. Just a hunch. Then again, I called the Jets coming back 2 years before they did and cleaned up on bets!

in this case my prediction is not such a celebration

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob E View Post
Hope you're right ps241.

But i think, though the NHLPA will appreciate the movement back to 'center' by the owners, in terms of % of revenue, i don't see the players taking considerably less than where they are currently. Still too big of a divide. They'll be at this a while longer.

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Old
08-30-2012, 07:04 AM
  #211
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob E View Post
Hope you're right ps241.

But i think, though the NHLPA will appreciate the movement back to 'center' by the owners, in terms of % of revenue, i don't see the players taking considerably less than where they are currently. Still too big of a divide. They'll be at this a while longer.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mzappa View Post
I'm still calling January as I said last June, and thats totally based on nothing or no source. Just a hunch. Then again, I called the Jets coming back 2 years before they did and cleaned up on bets!

in this case my prediction is not such a celebration
The joy of being a sceptic (especially in an area like this) is that more often than not you are right and when you are wrong you are happy.

As I said I do like the timing of the response but do caution that if the players double down on their position by sticking to their format and shuffling the deck chairs on the titanic (minor consessios) then this could be protracted for sure. I do see a opprotunity for an aggressive counter by the PA on the format the owners have proposed that could get them to where (i believe) they are going to end up sooner rather than later.

Today will be interesting.

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08-30-2012, 08:25 AM
  #212
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I truly believe that hockey will start on time. At least the regular season will. NHL players have been through this before. Plus they saw the type of deal the NBAPA struck with the NBA. They know it's not worth it to hold out. Just look at Bill Guerin's advice to NBA players.

The movement from the owners' initial offer to their counterproposal was huge, and I think it's fair. Pretty much the same deal the NBA struck with their players. I don't see what else the NHLPA could really demand.

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Old
08-30-2012, 09:46 AM
  #213
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Originally Posted by ps241 View Post
The joy of being a sceptic (especially in an area like this) is that more often than not you are right and when you are wrong you are happy.
Ya, its like the age old... The sales & marketing dept comes out with their sales/revenue projections and the finance dept can say there is NO way you'll reach those targets. If the company reaches their targets, everyone is happy and forgets all about what the finance dept's said.

I just see the owners unwilling to move on the players taking much less, as a percentage of HRR, and the players staying unified in not taking less. Both sides have to show they are willing to miss part of the season to get what they 'want'. I don't think a full season will be lost, but I don't see how the season starts on time UNLESS the players agree to take much less. Don't see that happening, at least not now.

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Old
08-30-2012, 09:48 AM
  #214
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob E View Post
Ya, its like the age old... The sales & marketing dept comes out with their sales/revenue projections and the finance dept can say there is NO way you'll reach those targets. If the company reaches their targets, everyone is happy and forgets all about what the finance dept's said.

I just see the owners unwilling to move on the players taking much less, as a percentage of HRR, and the players staying unified in not taking less. Both sides have to show they are willing to miss part of the season to get what they 'want'. I don't think a full season will be lost, but I don't see how the season starts on time UNLESS the players agree to take much less. Don't see that happening, at least not now.
Would the players accept less if we promise to pass around a hat during each home game?

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Old
08-30-2012, 11:43 AM
  #215
ps241
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob E View Post
Ya, its like the age old... The sales & marketing dept comes out with their sales/revenue projections and the finance dept can say there is NO way you'll reach those targets. If the company reaches their targets, everyone is happy and forgets all about what the finance dept's said.

I just see the owners unwilling to move on the players taking much less, as a percentage of HRR, and the players staying unified in not taking less. Both sides have to show they are willing to miss part of the season to get what they 'want'. I don't think a full season will be lost, but I don't see how the season starts on time UNLESS the players agree to take much less. Don't see that happening, at least not now.
you absolutely could be right Bob.

My feelings are that one way or the other the players are going to be taking less and are they really willing to lose a ton of cash again just to end up where they could probably get to with some horse trading between now and the beginning of the season? The players will have to decide how much time pressure will actually assist them in getting to a better long term deal? Perhaps they want to call the owners bluff again but in the real world guys like Blake Wheeler and Big Buff start losing $75,000 to $145,000 a week once the doors are locked and they can never get it back. Is the deal they would get by holding firm really going to be allot better than a deal they could get over the next 3 to 4 weeks with aggressive negotiations?

I am not making a value judgment about who is in the right or who is in the wrong, I am assessing where I think its heading and the resolve of the two camps. In 2004 both sides were prepared to go nuclear because there was a major restructuring of the business model to be won or lost. They didn't even have their first talks until September (can you believe that) and both sides showed they had some staying power but there was a hill to die on in that fight.

This is only my gut but I don't see the upside for the players taking this fight into the season given what I believe to be the dynamics of the situation. Now none of what I feel matters itís how the actual players feel collectively so we shall see

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08-31-2012, 02:59 AM
  #216
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Elliote Friedman has a good article on the changes to HRR:

http://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/opin...gnificant.html

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08-31-2012, 06:55 AM
  #217
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Quote:
Originally Posted by allan5oh View Post
Elliote Friedman has a good article on the changes to HRR:

http://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/opin...gnificant.html
Good pick up allan5oh

I think this request for chance from the owners is both fair and nessesary:


4) When players on one-way deals like Wade Redden or Jeff Finger*are sent to the minors, their salaries no longer count. Not only is the NHL trying to eliminate this loophole from the salary-cap portion of the discussion, it is trying to make those contracts tied to HRR, too.


End quote: at the end of the day you shouldn't be able to dump big mistakes in the minors IMHO.

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08-31-2012, 11:30 AM
  #218
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Quote:
Originally Posted by allan5oh View Post
Elliote Friedman has a good article on the changes to HRR:

http://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/opin...gnificant.html
Thanks for the link. It doesn't sound like the owners are being unreasonable about changes to HRR. It's not like they're asking to remove concessions or board ads.

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08-31-2012, 12:24 PM
  #219
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per @drosenhl Hainsey is yet again part of the NHLPA negotiating team for today

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Old
08-31-2012, 12:44 PM
  #220
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per @drosenhl Hainsey is yet again part of the NHLPA negotiating team for today
He's a star player, what'd you expect?

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08-31-2012, 01:26 PM
  #221
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Thanks for the link. It doesn't sound like the owners are being unreasonable about changes to HRR. It's not like they're asking to remove concessions or board ads.
I don't think it's unreasonable but if they cut that much out of HRR they should increase the % more.

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08-31-2012, 01:50 PM
  #222
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I don't think it's unreasonable but if they cut that much out of HRR they should increase the % more.
Well, they seem to be moving that way - the initial offer was 43% of this new HRR. Now they're around 46%. Seems like everyone is expecting a roughly 50/50 split...which would be about 47/53 of the current HRR?

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08-31-2012, 01:53 PM
  #223
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Elliote Friedman has a good article on the changes to HRR:

http://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/opin...gnificant.html
This was a point of mine many pages ago. There is a significant cost to running an NHL franchise. The players need to share some of the burden of some of these costs if they want to stuff their faces at the trough of what's left.

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Old
08-31-2012, 02:23 PM
  #224
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The joy of being a sceptic (especially in an area like this) is that more often than not you are right and when you are wrong you are happy.

g.
Your tank getting full?!

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Old
08-31-2012, 03:03 PM
  #225
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with the latest quotes from Fehr and Bettman, sounds like no hockey for a long time...

what am I going to do without my/our Jets?!?!

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