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Free Agency & General Offseason Thread Part IV: Will there be NHL hockey this year?

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Old
08-31-2012, 10:05 PM
  #701
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Originally Posted by Kush View Post
Really?


Condra
+/- On ice per 60 min of ice time = +0.53; Team +/- Off ice per 60 min of ice time = +0.20; Difference = +0.33

Neil
+/- On ice per 60 min of ice time = -0.38; Team +/- Off ice per 60 min of ice time = +0.34; Difference = -0.72

HUGE difference. Do you really want me to add Corsi, Quality of Teammates, Quality of Competition and Takeways/Giveaways?

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Old
08-31-2012, 10:20 PM
  #702
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Originally Posted by Ice-tray
For me, I think Condra's days are numbered on the squad. We have way too much talent coming up pretty quick to reserve a spot of a guy that excels at the PK and nothing else. Defence and positioning can be taught, one of our blue chippers will bump him.
We too many holes and ?'s for Condrah to be expendable.

Alfie will retire.
Daugavins and Job are behind him.
Regin and Lats are injury projects that could be released next summer.
Neil himself is 7-8 years older than Condra. So the org may just avoid ever making a decision between them and merely left nature take it's course.

Meanwhile, most of the prospects are 19-20 with little pro experience.

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Old
08-31-2012, 10:27 PM
  #703
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MandyAlwaysKnows View Post


Condra
+/- On ice per 60 min of ice time = +0.53; Team +/- Off ice per 60 min of ice time = +0.20; Difference = +0.33

Neil
+/- On ice per 60 min of ice time = -0.38; Team +/- Off ice per 60 min of ice time = +0.34; Difference = -0.72

HUGE difference. Do you really want me to add Corsi, Quality of Teammates, Quality of Competition and Takeways/Giveaways?
i was with you that condra is underrated by most, but i have to disagree that he's more valuable than neil. neil brings to the team that cannot be measured by stats. how many times can you say that condra has shifted the momentum of a game and consequently brought a win. now ask the same question about neil. i can come up with many instances for neil, for the life of me i can't think of one for condra.

but, with all that said, condra is still very important to the team in what he brings and anyone who says that he is easily replaceable by someone currently on the sens roster is wrong.

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Old
08-31-2012, 10:29 PM
  #704
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Quote:
Originally Posted by trentmccleary View Post
We too many holes and ?'s for Condrah to be expendable.

Alfie will retire.
Daugavins and Job are behind him.
Regin and Lats are injury projects that could be released next summer.
Neil himself is 7-8 years older than Condra. So the org may just avoid ever making a decision between them and merely left nature take it's course.

Meanwhile, most of the prospects are 19-20 with little pro experience.
You're right, it most likely wont be this year,and I really don't think it will be rushed. I just think that in the end he will be squeezed out.

I don't think JOB is behind Condra, same tier, Dawgs will be the first to go... But Stone and Zib will need spots to develop irrespective of the other prospects and someone will have to go.

I think it's a great problem to have, but pushing Condra out of the line up shouldn't be that difficult unless he shows something a little better this season coming up.

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Old
08-31-2012, 10:42 PM
  #705
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MandyAlwaysKnows View Post
Condra is very good defensively: great positing, lots of takeaways, etc. That influences puck possession. that influences scoring.

Anyway, for the sake of argument, let's dismiss that. Condra had 1.40 points/60 min, Neil 1.66 points/60 min (even strength) Let's say they get 15 min of even strength time per game (being very generous here).

Neil has a 0.25 advantage. It takes him 60 min x 4 = 240 min to get 1 more point. 240 min/15 min/game = 16 games gets Neil 1 more point. That is 5 more points a season (while being generous with ice time).

Pretty much a wash when considering Condra's superior puck possession numbers.



exactly, and that's included in his numbers! Don't you understand? Derspite this physicality, Condra is still better!

Your argument = Neil hits more.

Mine = Sens are a wash offensively with both on, but MUCH better defensively.

My argument is weak? Please.
Yes, all of that that you just posted is just silly. It shows that you can take some stats, spin them out of the entire context from which they were gathered, and then try to extrapolate fact. It's like trying to explain to the terminator why we cry... You'll just never get it, nor will you ever understand what you're missing...

My argument is not that Neil hits more, that's you trying to put numbers on him so you can minimize his impact to suite your ridiculous argument. What's stunning to me is that you claim to watch the same games as me, yet you argue unending that Condra is better. I have to say that you're providing me with some entertainment while I wait to go out. You're a card that's for sure...

My argument is that we are a more bold and intimidating team when Neil is on the ice, that players on the opposing team are more tentative and well behaved, and that every couple of games a player gets lit up. Add that to the occasional fight to sort out a wrong and a top 5ish league hitting rate and your looking at a player that has a far wider reaching positive effect on the Sens night in and night out than Condra. Condra's an offensive blackhole, and a good penalty killer, but the league is filled with players that are far better than he is a pk'ing while at the same time are offensive threats. We've had a few on this team over the years.

See hockey is a game humans play on the ice, they interact with one another and these interactions can't be quantified with accuracy. It's the very reason why you think the numbers prove one thing, while the rest of the fanbase thinks you've fallen and hit your head. After so much of "it must be them" at some point you have to turn the lens back and realize that "it must be you"...

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Old
08-31-2012, 11:38 PM
  #706
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IF Corsi and statistics is the be all and end all of player assessment, then why does every NHL club employ scouts?

Or hey, Glachenyuk didn't score a single point this year in his draft year, yet he was drafted 3rd overall? How can that be? The corsi tells us he is awful!!!!!!

Corey Locke in his draft year had 152 points and E Stall had 98 points.

The corsi tells us to draft Locke!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Old
08-31-2012, 11:41 PM
  #707
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I'll trust my eyes and head and use that as my judgement on how to evaluate players over silly statistics.

Probably why I got flammed so much for saying well before the 2011 draft that I would take Landeskog over anyone else. But hey, what has Lando ever done?

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Old
08-31-2012, 11:45 PM
  #708
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DJB View Post
IF Corsi and statistics is the be all and end all of player
It's not the be all end all at all, when it doesn't fit, just supplement with more advanced (convoluted) statistics . It might be handy but those statistics aren't used because they've never been proven to work (otherwise everyone would know about it because people would push it).

I wonder if Condra can improve to Kelly's level, or will he remain mostly stagnant and solid his entire career.

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Old
08-31-2012, 11:55 PM
  #709
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How much is Neil knocking Boyle out of the playoffs worth statistically?

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Old
09-01-2012, 12:03 AM
  #710
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DJB View Post
IF Corsi and statistics is the be all and end all of player assessment, then why does every NHL club employ scouts?

Or hey, Glachenyuk didn't score a single point this year in his draft year, yet he was drafted 3rd overall? How can that be? The corsi tells us he is awful!!!!!!

Corey Locke in his draft year had 152 points and E Stall had 98 points.

The corsi tells us to draft Locke!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I'm having a hard time ascertaining whether you understand what CORSI stats measure.

They aren't the be all and end all but they do help fill in the blanks on why some of the more traditional measures (such as points) don't tell you the whole story about a player's possible production. They actually would have given you more reasons why drafting a guy like Staal would be a much smarter move than taking a player like Locke even though he had far more points.

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Old
09-01-2012, 12:09 AM
  #711
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Quote:
Originally Posted by God Says No View Post
i was with you that condra is underrated by most, but i have to disagree that he's more valuable than neil. neil brings to the team that cannot be measured by stats. how many times can you say that condra has shifted the momentum of a game and consequently brought a win. now ask the same question about neil. i can come up with many instances for neil, for the life of me i can't think of one for condra.

but, with all that said, condra is still very important to the team in what he brings and anyone who says that he is easily replaceable by someone currently on the sens roster is wrong.
So Neil is better for just one play when he shifts momentum?

Condra is better for the rest of the game.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ice-Tray View Post
Yes, all of that that you just posted is just silly. It shows that you can take some stats, spin them out of the entire context from which they were gathered, and then try to extrapolate fact. It's like trying to explain to the terminator why we cry... You'll just never get it, nor will you ever understand what you're missing...
But can you ''spin'' stats in Neil's favour? I'd like to see you try.

They're not spined at all, they are what they are.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ice-Tray View Post
My argument is not that Neil hits more, that's you trying to put numbers on him so you can minimize his impact to suite your ridiculous argument. What's stunning to me is that you claim to watch the same games as me, yet you argue unending that Condra is better. I have to say that you're providing me with some entertainment while I wait to go out. You're a card that's for sure...
a ''card''?
?

What exactly does hitting do other than help you out defensively or offensively? Condra is better overall despite lack of hitting.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ice-Tray View Post
My argument is that we are a more bold and intimidating team when Neil is on the ice, that players on the opposing team are more tentative and well behaved, and that every couple of games a player gets lit up. Add that to the occasional fight to sort out a wrong and a top 5ish league hitting rate and your looking at a player that has a far wider reaching positive effect on the Sens night in and night out than Condra. Condra's an offensive blackhole, and a good penalty killer, but the league is filled with players that are far better than he is a pk'ing while at the same time are offensive threats. We've had a few on this team over the years.
Refs are usually pretty good at not letting things get out of hand. If a team isn't well behaved, they will get penalties. Usually.

Making guys more tentative... that would be part of the 'defense' category.

I've seen players go out of their way to be physical (Ovechkin at times), and it hurts their game. They just try way too hard to be physical every chance they get and forget just to play hockey.

They play with sticks and a puck for a reason you know... if hitting and being intimidating was as important as you suggest, then why does Neil even need to carry a stick?
Extreme example, but you get the picture... there are more important things than being physical.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ice-Tray View Post
See hockey is a game humans play on the ice, they interact with one another and these interactions can't be quantified with accuracy. It's the very reason why you think the numbers prove one thing, while the rest of the fanbase thinks you've fallen and hit your head. After so much of "it must be them" at some point you have to turn the lens back and realize that "it must be you"...
Dude, think about it... don't you think that a team filled with players who score more goals than allow will win more games than a team filled with players who score less than allow?

It's only logical.

12 Condras > 12 Neils. Pretty simple.

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Old
09-01-2012, 12:13 AM
  #712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DefenseMinister View Post
I'm having a hard time ascertaining whether you understand what CORSI stats measure...
but they do help fill in the blanks on why some of the more traditional measures (such as points) don't tell you the whole story about a player's possible production.
If these stats stay in the 'by the numbers' forum, then sure. There's no use in bringing these statistics up in any other forums (as MAK does), because majority haven't heard of them.
Further, there's a difference between understanding what the stats measure, and whether they are actually meaningful, and without proof (like a thread that validates the measurements over a decade on many players), they should be brushed off easily.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MandyAlwaysKnows View Post
Difference = +0.33
Difference = -0.72
HUGE difference.
The difference between 0.33 and -0.72 is 1.05, which is a massive difference or no difference at all depending on the situation. How is the majority supposed to know? Because an individual who believes it to be true says so? It's meaningless.

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Old
09-01-2012, 12:14 AM
  #713
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Originally Posted by John Holmes View Post
How much is Neil knocking Boyle out of the playoffs worth statistically?
Not that much?

Boyle is one bottom 6er who isn't very good. He had a good playoff, but play that series over again 10 times and he wouldn't put up that performance again. Just chance. Not a superstar by any means.

He wasn't as big a nuisance to Karlsson as some think either.

And anyway, so Neil is more valuable for one game when he does stuff like that. Condra is more valuable the rest of the time.

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Old
09-01-2012, 12:18 AM
  #714
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John Holmes View Post
How much is Neil knocking Boyle out of the playoffs worth statistically?
This.

Neil brings a skillset that the basic NHL stats don't measure accurately, and the advanced stats don't measure at all. He's got an intensity that every coach dreams of having in a bottom-6er. Condra lacks that aggressiveness, that fighting spirit that you can really feed off.

Remember the game against Carolina in April last year, where Neil absolutely destroyed Eric Staal in the corner and got penalized for it... only to step out of the box and absolutely rock Ruutu, getting another penalty because the ref felt showed up?

Yeah. There's no stat that measures the impact those hits can have on a game. Sure, we lost that game against Carolina. But I know if I were on the bench, that sheer intensity would fire me right up. Hell, I remember being in the crowd, and before that hit, it was dead silent. After those hits, the place was rocking til the end of the game. And that's the exact kind of player you need to have when your battling through some adversity.

I'd absolutely take Neil over Condra, Corsi or not.


Here's the video if you've forgotten.



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Old
09-01-2012, 12:27 AM
  #715
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Originally Posted by DJB View Post
IF Corsi and statistics is the be all and end all of player assessment, then why does every NHL club employ scouts?

Or hey, Glachenyuk didn't score a single point this year in his draft year, yet he was drafted 3rd overall? How can that be? The corsi tells us he is awful!!!!!!

Corey Locke in his draft year had 152 points and E Stall had 98 points.

The corsi tells us to draft Locke!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I haven't shown Corsi numbers for about 5 pages now.

Is Corsi even measured in juniors? Skating, hands, vision, and those great hockey tools that you see while watching a player are indicative of player growth at that age, and it's not solely based on performance.

At the same time, scouts do look at statistics. All tools but no results isn't good.

However, in the NHL, when comparing current level of play, I'd say the combination of a variety of different stats that I and Micklebot presented (as well as Sureves on the main boards) can certainly give a very good indication of level of play.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DJB View Post
I'll trust my eyes and head and use that as my judgement on how to evaluate players over silly statistics.

Probably why I got flammed so much for saying well before the 2011 draft that I would take Landeskog over anyone else. But hey, what has Lando ever done?
WHY?

omg, seriously? You trust yourself that much? You really think you're that flawless in evaluating players with your eyes and brain only?



It's completely subjective. Not scientific at all. Don't you think there's a chance you'll make a mistake or miss something?


Numbers don't lie.

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Old
09-01-2012, 12:40 AM
  #716
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Originally Posted by HavlatMach9 View Post
The difference between 0.33 and -0.72 is 1.05, which is a massive difference or no difference at all depending on the situation. How is the majority supposed to know? Because an individual who believes it to be true says so? It's meaningless.
Fair enough.

Let's compare to other Sens. The difference in +/- per 60 min when the player On vs Off the ice.

Alfredsson = +0.84
Spezza = +0.68
Turris = +0.33
Condra = +0.33
Michalek = +0.31
Foligno = +0.06
Smith = -0.09
Greening = -0.50
Neil = -0.72
Konopka = -1.12

Look where Condra is, and where Neil is... Condra right up there with the top two-way players on the team, while Neil is at the bottom of the barrel

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Old
09-01-2012, 12:41 AM
  #717
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Corsi =/= everything

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09-01-2012, 12:43 AM
  #718
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DefenseMinister View Post
I'm having a hard time ascertaining whether you understand what CORSI stats measure..
I do understand them, and to be honest I don't care much for them.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MandyAlwaysKnows View Post
I haven't shown Corsi numbers for about 5 pages now.

WHY?

omg, seriously? You trust yourself that much? You really think you're that flawless in evaluating players with your eyes and brain only?



It's completely subjective. Not scientific at all. Don't you think there's a chance you'll make a mistake or miss something?


Numbers don't lie.
Yet you keep bringing up Corsi examples over and over and over again.

Never said I was flawless that's for sure, merely maintaining my belief that watching a player is a more intelligent manner in which to properly evaluate hockey players.

You do the math and take Jankowski, I'll stick with Galchenyuk.

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Old
09-01-2012, 12:43 AM
  #719
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Originally Posted by The Roffler View Post
Corsi =/= everything
Corsi + Takeaways + +/- adjusted to team and ice time = means something

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09-01-2012, 12:46 AM
  #720
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I do understand them, and to be honest I don't care much for them.



Yet you keep bringing up Corsi examples.

Never said I was flawless that's for sure, merely mainting my belief that watching a player is a more intelligent manner in which to evaluate hockey players.

You do the math and take Jankowski, I'll stick with Galchenyuk.
They are +/- examples that I'm bringing up. Therefore you don't understand.

Galchenyuk didn't play a significant number of games. You can't conclude anything from that. Just like you can't conclude anything from Regin's 10 games this year.

The 'math' would not pick Jankowski.

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09-01-2012, 12:51 AM
  #721
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Condra didn't do squat in the playoffs.

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Old
09-01-2012, 12:55 AM
  #722
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Quote:
Originally Posted by God Says No View Post
i was with you that condra is underrated by most, but i have to disagree that he's more valuable than neil. neil brings to the team that cannot be measured by stats. how many times can you say that condra has shifted the momentum of a game and consequently brought a win. now ask the same question about neil. i can come up with many instances for neil, for the life of me i can't think of one for condra.

but, with all that said, condra is still very important to the team in what he brings and anyone who says that he is easily replaceable by someone currently on the sens roster is wrong.
That's a little something we in the biz like to call "intangibles"

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09-01-2012, 12:57 AM
  #723
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Originally Posted by John Holmes View Post
Condra didn't do squat in the playoffs.
Had THE highest quality of competition on the team and the 2nd highest Corsi on the team. He was Even. He was good.

Neil had THE lowest quality of competition on the team. However he was awesome in the playoffs, he had the highest Corsi on the team and beat Condra in +/-.

Very small sample size though, could be 100% due to chance.

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09-01-2012, 01:13 AM
  #724
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Originally Posted by MandyAlwaysKnows View Post
Numbers don't lie.
Believe it or not, they can lie.

Intervening variables (the impact of linemates, catching your opponent at the end of a long shift, how the system/coaching affects a line's shooting tendencies, etc,), spurious relationships (eg the difference between the number of shot attempts by your team and the number of shot attempts by the other team might not be caused by the aggregate abilities of the individual players, and necessarily indicative of the talent of the individual players), methodological limitations (eg subjectiveness of the stats they use especially 'shot attempts'; the assumption that the best way to assess talent is using differential shot attempts), questions of statistical significance (eg how significant is the difference between a +0.85 player from a -0.85 player), random errors (eg the subjectiveness of what constitutes a 'shot attempt'), and systematic errors (eg certain teams consistently overreporting or underreporting a particular stat) can all mask the true relevance of the numbers you are using, (in layman's terms, they can 'lie' to you).

There are plenty of problems associated with Corsi that could suggest Condra is a better player than he actually is.

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09-01-2012, 01:33 AM
  #725
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Originally Posted by CanadianHockey View Post
Believe it or not, they can lie.

Intervening variables (the impact of linemates, catching your opponent at the end of a long shift, how the system/coaching affects a line's shooting tendencies, etc,), spurious relationships (eg the difference between the number of shot attempts by your team and the number of shot attempts by the other team might not be caused by the aggregate abilities of the individual players, and necessarily indicative of the talent of the individual players), methodological limitations (eg subjectiveness of the stats they use especially 'shot attempts'; the assumption that the best way to assess talent is using differential shot attempts), questions of statistical significance (eg how significant is the difference between a +0.85 player from a -0.85 player), random errors (eg the subjectiveness of what constitutes a 'shot attempt'), and systematic errors (eg certain teams consistently overreporting or underreporting a particular stat) can all mask the true relevance of the numbers you are using, (in layman's terms, they can 'lie' to you).

There are plenty of problems associated with Corsi that could suggest Condra is a better player than he actually is.
1-Corsi is 1 stat out of 3 I used
2-'Shot attempt' is pretty clear
3-Sure there are lots of variables, but chances are very good that they cancel out for both players. Right?
4-Impact of linemates can be measured by Qual of Teammates
5-Coaching/system: Players are on the same team, and I look at Rel Corsi
6-I've never claimed Corsi is anything more than shot +/-. it is what is.

Sorry, but this ''the difference between the number of shot attempts by your team and the number of shot attempts by the other team might not be caused by the aggregate abilities of the individual players, and necessarily indicative of the talent of the individual players'' is probably your best argument.

However, Neil and Condra are on the same team, and Condra arguably had worse linemates.

If this was a small samples size, i would agree with you... but over 82 games, these variables should impact the players in roughly the same way no?

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