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Free Agency & General Offseason Thread Part IV: Will there be NHL hockey this year?

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Old
09-01-2012, 12:36 AM
  #726
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Some people look at stats way too much.

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09-01-2012, 12:41 AM
  #727
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Originally Posted by Ice-Tray View Post
You're right, it most likely wont be this year,and I really don't think it will be rushed. I just think that in the end he will be squeezed out.

I don't think JOB is behind Condra, same tier, Dawgs will be the first to go... But Stone and Zib will need spots to develop irrespective of the other prospects and someone will have to go.

I think it's a great problem to have, but pushing Condra out of the line up shouldn't be that difficult unless he shows something a little better this season coming up.
A lot has to go right for Condra to get pushed out at all and I doubt it will come to fruition.

Silt will be the only rookie to make the team this year.

Alfie retires next season and decisions are made on Regin and Lats vs. whether the kids look ready. Neil will be 34-35 and may be phased into a permanent 4th line role. At some point we'll decide whether the prospects are developing as planned, because many probably won't. I think Wick-Kaigorodov-Eaves would have been our future 2nd line coming out of the last lockout.

Condra and Smith just posted 3rd line numbers while killing penalties in their rookie seasons. They're already average 3rd liners or close to it. It's going to take a lot for us to fill so many top-9 holes that Condra gets pushed out or Smith gets pushed to the 4th line.

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09-01-2012, 12:42 AM
  #728
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I won't claim player Y > player X because of higher Corsi.

However,
On the ice goals for, on the ice goals against, Corsi, Takeaways, Giveaways, +/- adjusted to ice time, +/- adjusted to team, Quality of Teammates, Quality of Competition... It's NOT a coincidence that Condra tops Neil in all these categories.

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Old
09-01-2012, 12:55 AM
  #729
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MandyAlwaysKnows View Post
1-Corsi is 1 stat out of 3 I used I wasn't intending to suggest you only used a single stat, sorry. What I was trying to do was illustrate the irrationality of the statement 'stats never lie.'
2-'Shot attempt' is pretty clear No, it's not clear. If I attempt a slap-pass to a teammate standing near the crease, but it misses, is that a shot attempt? Some might say yes, others might say no. Hell, I might think 'yes' on one play but 'no' on another.
3-Sure there are lots of variables, but chances are very good that they cancel out for both players. Right? That's an assumption - if you really want to dig down the truth, you shouldn't make those assumptions, you should attempt to resolve those limitations by providing greater depth of analysis and addressing those limitations head on. You're obviously going to be more contented if the existing Corsi stats seem to support your own empirical conclusions than if they didn't. That complacency does not mean it's the absolute truth.
4-Impact of linemates can be measured by Qual of Teammates Yes, Quality of Teammates is an attempt to control the teammate variable. Again, like any stat, it's subject to limitations. It's not a be-all-end-all-never-wrong number.
5-Coaching/system: Players are on the same team, and I look at Rel Corsi Still has limitations - coaches use different lines with different strategies. Could argue Condra is assigned a grinding, two-way role with greater emphasis on puck possession and shooting, while Neil is used as an energy player who is more invested in being an aggressive hitter and fighter, rather than a shooter.
6-I've never claimed Corsi is anything more than shot +/-. it is what is. You're using it to assess the quality of players, was my point, not that you don't understand that Corsi measures shot differentials.

Sorry, but this ''the difference between the number of shot attempts by your team and the number of shot attempts by the other team might not be caused by the aggregate abilities of the individual players, and necessarily indicative of the talent of the individual players'' is probably our best argument. I agree that the best counter to Corsi is questioning the methodological approach it takes.

However, Neil and Condra are on the same team, and Condra arguably had worse linemates. How significantly worse were Condra's linemates? How much of an impact did this have on the playing abilities of Neil or Condra?

If this was a small samples size, i would agree with you... but over 82 games, these variables should impact the players in roughly the same way no? This could be verified using further analysis into the significance of the sample size and whether it is congruent to their careers beyond this season.
Bolded.

I'm mostly trying to get you to admit that stats do indeed lie, and if we really want to improve discussion, it'd be awesome to see more analysis than a back and forth between 'I don't trust Corsi' and 'stats don't lie'.

Perhaps I've been spending too much time in the By the Numbers Board.

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Old
09-01-2012, 01:20 AM
  #730
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CanadianHockey View Post
Bolded.

I'm mostly trying to get you to admit that stats do indeed lie, and if we really want to improve discussion, it'd be awesome to see more analysis than a back and forth between 'I don't trust Corsi' and 'stats don't lie'.

Perhaps I've been spending too much time in the By the Numbers Board.
Sure, they can sometimes be misleading. (never said never)

But in this case with the +/-, it's pretty straight forward. There's a big difference between Condra and Neil (but no I guess we can't say if it's significant or not). But Condra is up there with Turris, Alfredsson, Spezza and Michalek.

And it's not as subjective as saying Corsi translates into puck possession. Pucks in the net and pucks out of the net. It is what it is, Condra is comparable with the top forwards on the team at it.


Some bolded stuff I disagree with but don't know how to quote it.

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09-01-2012, 01:33 AM
  #731
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''I wasn't intending to suggest you only used a single stat, sorry. What I was trying to do was illustrate the irrationality of the statement 'stats never lie.''
-Didn't say never, meant more in this case with the +/-. Should have phrased it better


''No, it's not clear. If I attempt a slap-pass to a teammate standing near the crease, but it misses, is that a shot attempt? Some might say yes, others might say no. Hell, I might think 'yes' on one play but 'no' on another.''
-Fair enough, though I think we can assume the NHL teaches their stat guys to be at least somewhat consistent. And most importantly, Neil and Condra play in the same games for the same team.


''That's an assumption - if you really want to dig down the truth, you shouldn't make those assumptions, you should attempt to resolve those limitations by providing greater depth of analysis and addressing those limitations head on. You're obviously going to be more contented if the existing Corsi stats seem to support your own empirical conclusions than if they didn't. That complacency does not mean it's the absolute truth.''
-I'll take my chances with that assumption. I mean come on, minimal difference, especially for two players on the same team. I wouldn't even know where to begin to address the limitations? Do you?


''Yes, Quality of Teammates is an attempt to control the teammate variable. Again, like any stat, it's subject to limitations. It's not a be-all-end-all-never-wrong number''
-I agree that it's not, but it does provide some indication. That's why I said Condra arguably has worse linemates. I won't claim they were significantly worse, but neil clearly does not have an advantage in this regard.


''Still has limitations - coaches use different lines with different strategies. Could argue Condra is assigned a grinding, two-way role with greater emphasis on puck possession and shooting, while Neil is used as an energy player who is more invested in being an aggressive hitter and fighter, rather than a shooter.''
-And it could be argued Condra is used a certain way because of his skill set. Goes both ways. And they both played a lot with Smith


''You're using it to assess the quality of players, was my point, not that you don't understand that Corsi measures shot differentials''
-I know, but I'm using it among other things. Not just this one stat.


''How significantly worse were Condra's linemates? How much of an impact did this have on the playing abilities of Neil or Condra?''
-No idea. All I'm saying is Condra has no advantage over based on who he played with. Which is fair

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Old
09-01-2012, 03:55 AM
  #732
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Petition to ban Corsi and all over stupid statistics?

Signed.

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Old
09-01-2012, 04:48 AM
  #733
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beville View Post
Petition to ban Corsi and all over stupid statistics?

Signed.
Corsi has it's place, it's a valid stat.

The problem is that some people think that hockey = baseball. Baseball is inherently a one-on-one sport: hitter vs pitcher. Hockey is such a fluid game, that has SO MANY MORE VARIABLES than baseball does, that it's near impossible for stats like Corsi to be able to tell the whole story.

I actually like Corsi and corsi-esque stats, but hockey is perhaps the one sport where truly, a player can be so much more valuable than stats might indicate, due to the chaos that is an NHL game compared to more structured sports like football and baseball.

Let's not ban stats, that's a bit extreme. Stats are so useful, and there is only really one or two goofballs (I want to use a stronger word than "goofball", but I also don't want to get threadbanned) around here who are either inexperienced enough or just plain ignorant enough not to be able to see that if you look hard enough, you can find a stat that makes one player look better than another.

Anyone, and there is no exception here... anyone who says that Eric Condra (who even I think gets a bit of a raw deal from a couple of posters here) is more valuable than Chris Neil... well, they deserve every bit of criticism that comes their way, and twice as much on Sundays.

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Old
09-01-2012, 06:15 AM
  #734
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BonkTastic View Post
Corsi has it's place, it's a valid stat.

The problem is that some people think that hockey = baseball. Baseball is inherently a one-on-one sport: hitter vs pitcher. Hockey is such a fluid game, that has SO MANY MORE VARIABLES than baseball does, that it's near impossible for stats like Corsi to be able to tell the whole story.

I actually like Corsi and corsi-esque stats, but hockey is perhaps the one sport where truly, a player can be so much more valuable than stats might indicate, due to the chaos that is an NHL game compared to more structured sports like football and baseball.

Let's not ban stats, that's a bit extreme. Stats are so useful, and there is only really one or two goofballs (I want to use a stronger word than "goofball", but I also don't want to get threadbanned) around here who are either inexperienced enough or just plain ignorant enough not to be able to see that if you look hard enough, you can find a stat that makes one player look better than another.

Anyone, and there is no exception here... anyone who says that Eric Condra (who even I think gets a bit of a raw deal from a couple of posters here) is more valuable than Chris Neil... well, they deserve every bit of criticism that comes their way, and twice as much on Sundays.
Agree with pretty much the whole post. Neil and Condra add very different dimensions to the game, and I think there are segments of the population on both sides that undervalue them, so it's not a surprise to me to see this kind of thing. That said, Neil is coming pretty close to a career year (his 2nd best pts wise) so it's really bad timing to suggest he brings less then Condra. Last year, we may have had more people bite.

I also think it's pretty optimistic to think Condra will quickly be bumped off the team with all the prospects coming up. Jesse Winchester lasted 4 years already doing less. Condra also just came off his rookie season (though he did finish off the prior year with 26 games), so he is still learning the NHL game and has room for improvement.

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Old
09-01-2012, 06:55 AM
  #735
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From what I've heard from a buddy of mine who knows an NHL Agent, he said he's 99% sure there will be no season until at least December. I'm still trying to just decline all these things I'm hearing about it and just keep praying the NHL and the NHLPA sort things out.

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Old
09-01-2012, 07:11 AM
  #736
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Baseball =/= hockey. There is no MoneyPuck. Oberservation and qualitative analysis are everything in this sport, and that will never change.

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09-01-2012, 10:25 AM
  #737
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Originally Posted by FolignoQuantumLeap View Post
Oberservation and qualitative analysis are everything in this sport
As MAK would say, anyone and their mother can observe and analyse the game, but people come to differing conclusions watching the same games.
So somehow observing doesn't tell the whole story (though better than analysing by throwing statistics at the wall). If you have the talent to observe well, you can get a job with an NHL team, if you can't observe well, you can still get a job (like Milbury).

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Old
09-01-2012, 10:47 AM
  #738
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Originally Posted by FolignoQuantumLeap View Post
Baseball =/= hockey. There is no MoneyPuck. Oberservation and qualitative analysis are everything in this sport, and that will never change.
You act as if no one says that about baseball...

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Old
09-01-2012, 11:27 AM
  #739
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Using Corsi, Quality of Competition, Takeaways, and +/- adjusted to team and ice time, I conclude that Kyle Turris, Daniel Alfredsson and Erik Condra are the best two-way players on the team.

EVERYONE agrees with the first two. How come nobody agrees with the 3rd?

I don't get it.

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Old
09-01-2012, 11:28 AM
  #740
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MandyAlwaysKnows View Post
Using Corsi, Quality of Competition, Takeaways, and +/- adjusted to team and ice time, I conclude that Kyle Turris, Daniel Alfredsson and Erik Condra are the best two-way players on the team.

EVERYONE agrees with the first two. How come nobody agrees with the 3rd?

I don't get it.
How is Erik "two-way"? He's one way. Defense only.

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Old
09-01-2012, 11:31 AM
  #741
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request, when this thread reaches 1000, no more talking about Eric Condra, he's not even a core piece on the team and is likely gone within 1-2 seasons.

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09-01-2012, 11:34 AM
  #742
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Originally Posted by BonkTastic View Post
Corsi has it's place, it's a valid stat.

The problem is that some people think that hockey = baseball. Baseball is inherently a one-on-one sport: hitter vs pitcher. Hockey is such a fluid game, that has SO MANY MORE VARIABLES than baseball does, that it's near impossible for stats like Corsi to be able to tell the whole story.

I actually like Corsi and corsi-esque stats, but hockey is perhaps the one sport where truly, a player can be so much more valuable than stats might indicate, due to the chaos that is an NHL game compared to more structured sports like football and baseball.

Let's not ban stats, that's a bit extreme. Stats are so useful, and there is only really one or two goofballs (I want to use a stronger word than "goofball", but I also don't want to get threadbanned) around here who are either inexperienced enough or just plain ignorant enough not to be able to see that if you look hard enough, you can find a stat that makes one player look better than another.

Anyone, and there is no exception here... anyone who says that Eric Condra (who even I think gets a bit of a raw deal from a couple of posters here) is more valuable than Chris Neil... well, they deserve every bit of criticism that comes their way, and twice as much on Sundays.
Well put.

People who are using corsi are too quick to put down people who are using their own eyes and opinions.

People who are using their own eyes and opinions are treating corsi like it doesn't matter at all.

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Old
09-01-2012, 11:34 AM
  #743
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Quote:
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You act as if no one says that about baseball...
The problem is that for all the value that "new stats" have in hockey, they are still phenomenally poorly kept. "Hits" are the biggest joke of a statistic anywhere, as certain arenas have proven to artificially inflate hits for the home team, and "miss" some for the visitors.

Also, some stats are lacking. There simply isn't a way to measure some aspects of the game. Even if you want to use a stat like "hits", there is nothing to measure the effectiveness of those hits. Hockey is a physical game, there is a fantastic difference between Michael Del Zotto's 156 light-body hits, and Justin Abdelkader's bone-crunching 148 hits. I mean, Antoine Vermette had 124 hits, and he hits like a white wine spritzer. Where is the value in that stat? There is still absolutely no measurable statstic for the sheer physical element to hockey at the moment, and until there IS one, it's impossible to compare one player's value to another's value, without needing a subjective lens when considering their physical skills and how it affects a hockey game.

Also, and this is absolutely key, there is no statistic that can accurately measure a player's style within a team's system. With some of the more obscure stats, there is nothing out there that can accurately differentiate if a player's successes or failures are wholly a result of his skill vs the system he is playing in. For instance, how much of Eric Cole's goal jump since leaving Carolina has to do with skill vs opportunity vs the differences in the systems that Carolina and Montreal employ, on top of all of the other variables you need to account for?

It is another phenomenal difference in analyzing hockey and baseball. In baseball, it's pitcher versus batter. It's a one-on-one battle. In hockey, there are SO many variables to consider, that nothing is as clear-cut as it can be with baseball. There are very few one-on-one opportunities to really collect data. It's all average of game time that contain spoiled data: data that has been affected by things like opportunity. There is no reliable stats that consistently track how coaches match lines on line changes on the fly. Faceoff starts are a very nice stat, but there are what, 60 faceoffs a game? It doesn't even come close to painting a complete picture.

We have offside stats, but are there accurate stats that can show us how many players are guilty of an offside call due to rushing into the zone to early? Or was the winger offside because the center hesitated when carrying the puck into the zone? What about offsides for defencemen who fail to keep the puck in the zone? There is value in these sorts of stats, but they aren't kept. Yet, others are. It is an incomplete picture, and because of the sheer complexity of the game, I can;t see it becoming much clearer anytime soon.

There is, by the very nature of the game and how it is played, a large amount of subjectivity needed in it's analysis. Hockey is an inexact science, miles different from baseballs algebraic nature.

I'm all for good stats. I like stats, I'm not here to bash stats at all. I AM here, however, to remind people just how difficult it is to statistically analyze a hockey game, and that there is more than enough variance to demand some subjectivity in it's analysis.


Last edited by BonkTastic: 09-01-2012 at 11:44 AM.
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Old
09-01-2012, 11:36 AM
  #744
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Originally Posted by MandyAlwaysKnows View Post
Using Corsi, Quality of Competition, Takeaways, and +/- adjusted to team and ice time, I conclude that Kyle Turris, Daniel Alfredsson and Erik Condra are the best two-way players on the team.

EVERYONE agrees with the first two. How come nobody agrees with the 3rd?

I don't get it.
Even if Condra is arguably the 3rd best two-way player on the team, it doesn't make him the 3rd best player on the team.

I'd take Spezza/Michalek/Neil/Greening over Condz in a hearbeat. They add a dimension that's harder to fill than Condra. Imo, Michalek is as good as Condra on D, and is much better at finishing plays. Neil is almost as good, but he also adds a little jump in our line up. Brings confidence - the type of confidence that's missing when guys like him and Alfie are out with injuries. You see the team is more complacent with those guys missing. Not saying Alfie is a tough guy or anything, but leadership has many forms and being a bad ass hard hitting mofo will give your team confidence.

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Old
09-01-2012, 11:48 AM
  #745
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How is Erik "two-way"? He's one way. Defense only.
The stats disagree. He's two-way.

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09-01-2012, 11:54 AM
  #746
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The stats disagree. He's two-way.
He may be on when the team scores a lot of goals, but he certainly isn't the reason they're being scored.

Don't give me useless stats to argue that point, all it takes is someone to watch a Sens game to see that.

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09-01-2012, 12:01 PM
  #747
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MandyAlwaysKnows View Post
Using Corsi, Quality of Competition, Takeaways, and +/- adjusted to team and ice time, I conclude that Kyle Turris, Daniel Alfredsson and Erik Condra are the best two-way players on the team.

EVERYONE agrees with the first two. How come nobody agrees with the 3rd?

I don't get it.
I've mentioned before that Condra gets a bad rap on these boards, so I'm going to do something I don't recall having done in months, and agree with you.

3 points:

1) Condra led the team in PK TOI by a ridiculous margin. He had almost 50 total minutes more than the next highest player on the team, and over 30 seconds more of PK ATOI/G. And despite playing ridiculously more minutes than anyone else, he still finished 2nd on the team in +/-. Even very basic stats show the guy is clearly the most trusted PK forward.

2) like Manked said, his game is pretty one-way. Defensive specialist.

3) you come off as such a belligerent pain in the frigging ass sometimes, I don't blame anyone on these boards for dismissing anything you say right off the cuff. In this one instance however, you actually have a point I'm willing to defend: Erik Condra was a valuable member of the team last year, and should continue to be one provided he can continue to show defensive skill.

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09-01-2012, 12:01 PM
  #748
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He may be on when the team scores a lot of goals, but he certainly isn't the reason they're being scored.

all it takes is someone to watch a Sens game to see that.
so I edited your post

Condra is dead last (15th) in quality of linemates on the Sens (I think it's valid because Greening, Michalek and Turris top the list).

Yet he was still 7th for GF scored when on the ice.

His Takeaway number and Corsi numbers suggest he is a good puck possession type player. Maybe these are related?

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09-01-2012, 12:04 PM
  #749
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Originally Posted by BonkTastic View Post
The problem is that for all the value that "new stats" have in hockey, they are still phenomenally poorly kept. "Hits" are the biggest joke of a statistic anywhere, as certain arenas have proven to artificially inflate hits for the home team, and "miss" some for the visitors.

Also, some stats are lacking. There simply isn't a way to measure some aspects of the game. Even if you want to use a stat like "hits", there is nothing to measure the effectiveness of those hits. Hockey is a physical game, there is a fantastic difference between Michael Del Zotto's 156 light-body hits, and Justin Abdelkader's bone-crunching 148 hits. I mean, Antoine Vermette had 124 hits, and he hits like a white wine spritzer. Where is the value in that stat? There is still absolutely no measurable statstic for the sheer physical element to hockey at the moment, and until there IS one, it's impossible to compare one player's value to another's value, without needing a subjective lens when considering their physical skills and how it affects a hockey game.

Also, and this is absolutely key, there is no statistic that can accurately measure a player's style within a team's system. With some of the more obscure stats, there is nothing out there that can accurately differentiate if a player's successes or failures are wholly a result of his skill vs the system he is playing in. For instance, how much of Eric Cole's goal jump since leaving Carolina has to do with skill vs opportunity vs the differences in the systems that Carolina and Montreal employ, on top of all of the other variables you need to account for?

It is another phenomenal difference in analyzing hockey and baseball. In baseball, it's pitcher versus batter. It's a one-on-one battle. In hockey, there are SO many variables to consider, that nothing is as clear-cut as it can be with baseball. There are very few one-on-one opportunities to really collect data. It's all average of game time that contain spoiled data: data that has been affected by things like opportunity. There is no reliable stats that consistently track how coaches match lines on line changes on the fly. Faceoff starts are a very nice stat, but there are what, 60 faceoffs a game? It doesn't even come close to painting a complete picture.

We have offside stats, but are there accurate stats that can show us how many players are guilty of an offside call due to rushing into the zone to early? Or was the winger offside because the center hesitated when carrying the puck into the zone? What about offsides for defencemen who fail to keep the puck in the zone? There is value in these sorts of stats, but they aren't kept. Yet, others are. It is an incomplete picture, and because of the sheer complexity of the game, I can;t see it becoming much clearer anytime soon.

There is, by the very nature of the game and how it is played, a large amount of subjectivity needed in it's analysis. Hockey is an inexact science, miles different from baseballs algebraic nature.

I'm all for good stats. I like stats, I'm not here to bash stats at all. I AM here, however, to remind people just how difficult it is to statistically analyze a hockey game, and that there is more than enough variance to demand some subjectivity in it's analysis.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BonkTastic View Post
I've mentioned before that Condra gets a bad rap on these boards, so I'm going to do something I don't recall having done in months, and agree with you.

3 points:

1) Condra led the team in PK TOI by a ridiculous margin. He had almost 50 total minutes more than the next highest player on the team, and over 30 seconds more of PK ATOI/G. And despite playing ridiculously more minutes than anyone else, he still finished 2nd on the team in +/-. Even very basic stats show the guy is clearly the most trusted PK forward.

2) like Manked said, his game is pretty one-way. Defensive specialist.

3) you come off as such a belligerent pain in the frigging ass sometimes, I don't blame anyone on these boards for dismissing anything you say right off the cuff. In this one instance however, you actually have a point I'm willing to defend: Erik Condra was a valuable member of the team last year, and should continue to be one provided he can continue to show defensive skill.
I agree with both these posts except
''2) like Manked said, his game is pretty one-way. Defensive specialist.''

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09-01-2012, 12:08 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MandyAlwaysKnows View Post
The stats disagree. He's two-way.
"Two way" forwards don't have 5.7% shooting percentages.

Defensive specialist.

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