Every team should have the same number of chances to win 1st overall.
That's what should have happened for the 2005 Draft. Back then there was no system to go by because there was no season previously played to determine the order of teams. So I can't see any other option but for the NHL to use the same system from 2005 in a worst case scenario.
since a lot of people think that the way it would be weighted in the case of a lockout may be a little unfair, perhaps give less balls to teams like pittsburgh for being very good and a team like the oilers because of all the 1st overalls, for fun, i decided to make my own weighting scale. it would take forever to see how many balls every team would have and then punch it in on the draft website, but if anyone would like to see how many balls they'd have with my scale please post it, i'd love to see if it ended up being more on the fair side: first calculate how many points on average your team has earned in the last 5 years to determine how many balls they begin with...
60-69pts = 4 balls
70-79pts = 3 balls
80-89pts = 2 balls
90-99+pts = 1 ball
this will determine where you start off at.
add additional balls if you fit the following:
if youve missed the playoffs 3 times in the last 5 years, add 1 ball
if youve missed the playoffs 4 times in the last 5 years, add 2 balls
if youve missed the playoffs 5 times in the last 5 years, add 3 balls
after that, we'll subtract balls if you fit the following:
however many times a team has had a 1st overall in the last 5 years, they lose that many balls (ex. oilers lose 3)
any team that has made the playoffs 3+ times in the last 5 years loses 1 ball
any team that has won the stanley cup in the last 5 years loses 2 balls
this will give you your final ball count. the lowest you can have is 1 (ex. if your down to 2 balls and youve won the stanley cup in the past 5 years or any of the other ways to lose balls, you go down to 1, not 0).
panthers would have 4 balls with this system. started off w/ 2, received an additional 2 for missing the playoffs 4 times in past 5 seasons, lost none.
just something fun to do. and if you do it, does it seem a little more fair than the current weighting?
If the season is lost than the awful Oilers will get another first overall pick. They've already gotten three firsts in a row. A fourth wouldn't be any surprise at all.
It won't matter cause the NHL can not recover from another missed season. Hell if they miss any games I doubt they ever get a good tv deal again and if they miss more than 30, then the casual fans will never return either.
since a lot of people think that the way it would be weighted in the case of a lockout may be a little unfair, perhaps give less balls to teams like pittsburgh for being very good and a team like the oilers because of all the 1st overalls, for fun, i decided to make my own weighting scale. it would take forever to see how many balls every team would have and then punch it in on the draft website, but if anyone would like to see how many balls they'd have with my scale please post it, i'd love to see if it ended up being more on the fair side
I opted to just figure it for everybody, since I just happened to have points percentage charts already open for unrelated reasons.
Quote:
Originally Posted by FrolikFan67
first calculate how many points on average your team has earned in the last 5 years to determine how many balls they begin with...
60-69pts = 4 balls
70-79pts = 3 balls
80-89pts = 2 balls
90-99+pts = 1 ball
this will determine where you start off at.
Results so far:
3 balls - Columbus, Edmonton, Long Island, Winnipeg
2 balls - Carolina, Colorado, Florida, LA, Minnesota, Ottawa, Tampa Bay, Toronto
1 ball - Everyone else.
Quote:
Originally Posted by FrolikFan67
add additional balls if you fit the following:
if youve missed the playoffs 3 times in the last 5 years, add 1 ball
if youve missed the playoffs 4 times in the last 5 years, add 2 balls
if youve missed the playoffs 5 times in the last 5 years, add 3 balls
3 balls added to Edmonton, Long Island, Toronto, Winnipeg.
2 balls added to Columbus, Dallas, Florida, Minnesota, Tampa Bay
1 ball added to Buffalo, Calgary, Carolina, Colorado, St. Louis
All else lose 1 ball per the rules below.*
Quote:
Originally Posted by FrolikFan67
after that, we'll subtract balls if you fit the following:
however many times a team has had a 1st overall in the last 5 years, they lose that many balls (ex. oilers lose 3)
any team that has made the playoffs 3+ times in the last 5 years loses 1 ball
any team that has won the stanley cup in the last 5 years loses 2 balls
1st overall picks: Long Island, Tampa Bay, Edmonton (x3).
3+ playoff appearances: see above.
Stanley Cups: Detroit, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Boston, LA.
Quote:
Originally Posted by FrolikFan67
this will give you your final ball count. the lowest you can have is 1 (ex. if your down to 2 balls and youve won the stanley cup in the past 5 years or any of the other ways to lose balls, you go down to 1, not 0).
Based on this system...
6 balls (9.1% chance of 1st overall): Winnipeg
5 balls (7.5%): Columbus, Long Island, Toronto
4 balls (6.1%): Florida, Minnesota
3 balls (4.5%): Carolina, Colorado, Dallas, Tampa Bay, Edmonton
2 balls (3%): Buffalo, Calgary, St. Louis
1 ball (1.5%): Ottawa
"0 balls" (actually 1): Anaheim, Montreal, Nashville, New Jersey, New York (owned by CBJ), Philadelphia, Phoenix, San Jose, Vancouver, Washington.
"-1 balls" (actually 1): Los Angeles (owned by CBJ)
"-2 balls" (actually 1): Boston, Chicago, Detroit, Pittsburgh
GRAND TOTAL: 66 balls.
I opted to explicitly include the ones that dropped below 1 just to show the effect some of the penalties have. Technically those last four categories are all "1 ball".
We'd have what amounts to 7 balls (10.6%) under this system thanks to having LA's and New York's picks. Basically, our odds of getting the 1st overall don't change much at all - we were at about 9.8%, and we're barely a full percentage point higher (which is an improvement, but having recently lost a 50/50 draw and having a history of losing draft lotteries, this is not cause for celebration among Jackets fans ).
The chances for a few other teams, tho, are somewhat better. Compare and contrast with the "standard lottery" chances as calculated by Ashasx earlier in this thread in post #5: http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh...87&postcount=5
Hopefully this is enlightening.
*: I was considering suggesting having 4+ playoff appearances be the cutoff for losing one ball instead of 3+ - that would mean Anaheim, Phoenix, and Ottawa don't "lose" balls for having 3 playoff appearances. Only Ottawa is substantively affected, though - they'd have had 2 balls otherwise.
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Last edited by Viqsi: 09-16-2012 at 05:09 PM.
Reason: added total balls, % chances | added link to % calcs by Ashasx earlier in this thread | comment on Ottawa | broken quote! :(
Not really. As previously stated, if such a lottery follows the same format as 2005, we end up with a 10% chance of getting the 1st overall - as opposed to 50/50 this past year.
And lottery luck and the Blue Jackets are concepts that have never met.
but....it appears to be a pretty good draft this coming year....i am of the opinion that there is a lot of top end talent and Columbus, whether they draft #1 or #5 should be able to get a dandy player, after all, you did get Ryan Johansen at #4 in the 2010 draft. and having 2 lower 1st rounders as well, those could possibly be swapped for a higher 1st rounder perhaps? or just take the choices! a lot of teams in the league will be envious of the Jackets 3 first rounders on draft day believe me!
I opted to just figure it for everybody, since I just happened to have points percentage charts already open for unrelated reasons.
Results so far:
3 balls - Columbus, Edmonton, Long Island, Winnipeg
2 balls - Carolina, Colorado, Florida, LA, Minnesota, Ottawa, Tampa Bay, Toronto
1 ball - Everyone else.
3 balls added to Edmonton, Long Island, Toronto, Winnipeg.
2 balls added to Columbus, Dallas, Florida, Minnesota, Tampa Bay
1 ball added to Buffalo, Calgary, Carolina, Colorado, St. Louis
All else lose 1 ball per the rules below.*
1st overall picks: Long Island, Tampa Bay, Edmonton (x3).
3+ playoff appearances: see above.
Stanley Cups: Detroit, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Boston, LA.
this will give you your final ball count. the lowest you can have is 1 (ex. if your down to 2 balls and youve won the stanley cup in the past 5 years or any of the other ways to lose balls, you go down to 1, not 0).
Based on this system...
6 balls (9.1% chance of 1st overall): Winnipeg
5 balls (7.5%): Columbus, Long Island, Toronto
4 balls (6.1%): Florida, Minnesota
3 balls (4.5%): Carolina, Colorado, Dallas, Tampa Bay, Edmonton
2 balls (3%): Buffalo, Calgary, St. Louis
1 ball (1.5%): Ottawa
"0 balls" (actually 1): Anaheim, Montreal, Nashville, New Jersey, New York (owned by CBJ), Philadelphia, Phoenix, San Jose, Vancouver, Washington.
"-1 balls" (actually 1): Los Angeles (owned by CBJ)
"-2 balls" (actually 1): Boston, Chicago, Detroit, Pittsburgh
GRAND TOTAL: 66 balls.
I opted to explicitly include the ones that dropped below 1 just to show the effect some of the penalties have. Technically those last four categories are all "1 ball".
We'd have what amounts to 7 balls (10.6%) under this system thanks to having LA's and New York's picks. Basically, our odds of getting the 1st overall don't change much at all - we were at about 9.8%, and we're barely a full percentage point higher (which is an improvement, but having recently lost a 50/50 draw and having a history of losing draft lotteries, this is not cause for celebration among Jackets fans ).
The chances for a few other teams, tho, are somewhat better. Compare and contrast with the "standard lottery" chances as calculated by Ashasx earlier in this thread in post #5: http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh...87&postcount=5
Hopefully this is enlightening.
*: I was considering suggesting having 4+ playoff appearances be the cutoff for losing one ball instead of 3+ - that would mean Anaheim, Phoenix, and Ottawa don't "lose" balls for having 3 playoff appearances. Only Ottawa is substantively affected, though - they'd have had 2 balls otherwise.[/QUOTE]
I'd go with this template since it gives the Oilers 3/66 chances better than 1/50.
Pick 1: Pittsburgh
Pick 2: Edmonton
Pick 3: Calgary
Pick 4: St. Louis
Pick 5: Minnesota
Pick 6: Dallas
Pick 7: Detroit
Pick 8: Colorado
Pick 9: Florida
Pick 10: Vancouver
Pick 11: Carolina
Pick 12: Boston
Pick 13: Pheonix
Pick 14: Tampa
Pick 15: Winnipeg
Pick 16: New York
Pick 17: Montreal
Pick 18: Columbus
Pick 19: Toronto
Pick 20: New York Islanders
Pick 21: Philly
Pick 22: Anaheim
Pick 23: Las Angeles
Pick 24: Nashville
Pick 25: San Jose
Pick 26: Washington
Pick 27: Chicago
Pick 28: New Jersey
Pick 29: Ottawa
Pick 30: Buffalo
but....it appears to be a pretty good draft this coming year....i am of the opinion that there is a lot of top end talent and Columbus, whether they draft #1 or #5 should be able to get a dandy player, after all, you did get Ryan Johansen at #4 in the 2010 draft. and having 2 lower 1st rounders as well, those could possibly be swapped for a higher 1st rounder perhaps? or just take the choices! a lot of teams in the league will be envious of the Jackets 3 first rounders on draft day believe me!
True. But that has zero bearing whatsoever on whether or not a 30-team lottery would do us any good.
awesome, the Panthers miss the playoffs for 12 straight years, and then the year that they do make the playoffs there's a lock out season after lolssss
