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The Armchair GM Thread - Part XXIX

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Old
09-01-2012, 01:26 AM
  #726
Cogburn
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bbud View Post
trade young talent for what has beens , Neely was that kid once keep prospects trade known qualities if not your balls hurt way more later
Not that I disagree with your statement, but you seemingly missed the first half. Colborne and Ashton aren't exactly "busts", and I'd rather have Colborne over either center (prove me wrong Gaunce!), and Ashton's being a winger is a position of more need then defence in our prospect pool.

Besides, Iginla might not be scoring 50-50 any more, but he's far from a has been

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Old
09-01-2012, 08:04 AM
  #727
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Originally Posted by Scurr View Post
Edler doesn't pass the eye test defensively. He's very inconsistent physically, he can look awkward moving the puck, he gets caught flat footed and he tends to reach for the puck. Rarely does he look like a guy that can handle tougher minutes.


He took on tougher minutes this year. Edler went from a -0.021 CRQoC to 0.597, alongside an aging Salo... Yes, I know what you mean... He looked shaky. But they still threw him 2nd pairing minutes. Also, Bieksa looked like a train-wreck before Hamhuis. Now he's a shutdown guy. Pairing with the right partner can make a huge difference for a Dman. And Salo was definitely not the right guy.



Quote:
The stats back that up. Defensemen that play similar offensive minutes tend to have great corsi ratings. Even in 10/11, when he played significant time with Ehrhoff iirc, his corsi was under 7 while Ehrhoff's was 12. Bieksa had the same kind of rating while playing the toughest minutes on the team.

To answer your question, I'd say you start giving him tougher minutes when he starts playing consistently good defence with the minutes he has.


The stats back what up exactly? So are we saying that if Edler reaches 10+ in Corsi while maintaining 0.597 CRQoC, then he's a fit for tougher minutes?



Would it make a difference to your argument knowing Salo was 3 points lower in CorsiOn while facing an identical CRQoC? But then Salo has earned praise from fans for his prior defensive effort, so you don't see people questioning how he looked.



Just as a control, I used Kronwall as a comparison point for last year, as I had in my previous post. Interesting to note that while both defenders have a similar CRQoC (league-wide Kronwall was 72nd, while Edler was 85th) and Ozone start percentages, Kronwall finished with a lower CorsiOn than Edler... And Kronwall is expected to be a top pairing defender for DET next year...


CorsiRelQoC: Kronwall 0.702, Edler 0.597.
Ozone start %: Kronwall 54.5%, Edler's 57.8%
CorsiOn: Kronwall 5.58, Edler's 6.13

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Old
09-01-2012, 04:01 PM
  #728
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
The stats back what up exactly? So are we saying that if Edler reaches 10+ in Corsi while maintaining 0.597 CRQoC, then he's a fit for tougher minutes?



Would it make a difference to your argument knowing Salo was 3 points lower in CorsiOn while facing an identical CRQoC? But then Salo has earned praise from fans for his prior defensive effort, so you don't see people questioning how he looked.



Just as a control, I used Kronwall as a comparison point for last year, as I had in my previous post. Interesting to note that while both defenders have a similar CRQoC (league-wide Kronwall was 72nd, while Edler was 85th) and Ozone start percentages, Kronwall finished with a lower CorsiOn than Edler... And Kronwall is expected to be a top pairing defender for DET next year...


CorsiRelQoC: Kronwall 0.702, Edler 0.597.
Ozone start %: Kronwall 54.5%, Edler's 57.8%
CorsiOn: Kronwall 5.58, Edler's 6.13
You're using a small sample size. Kronwall had a 9+ Corsi on the three previous seasons. He played the third hardest competition in each of those seasons.

I used the 10/11 season as a comparison because Edler wasn't saddled with old man Salo.

Salo had a terrible second half. Terrible. That doesn't excuse Edler for his poor half, but it certainly didn't help.

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09-01-2012, 04:16 PM
  #729
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
Would it make a difference to your argument knowing Salo was 3 points lower in CorsiOn while facing an identical CRQoC? But then Salo has earned praise from fans for his prior defensive effort, so you don't see people questioning how he looked.
I don't think that's true. I thought Salo was dreadful last year, and I said before last season that relying on him in the Top 4 was a huge mistake, since it was obvious Ballard wouldn't be able to move up into the Top 4 given he's only useful on the left side.

I know it's not popular around here, but I'm glad Salo left. For anything more than third-pairing money on a one-year term, he just wasn't worth it.

Anyway, we'll see. Hopefully Edler takes the next step and meshes with Garrison. I still expect that if he doesn't and Garrison ends up back on the left side, he'll see more difficult minutes than Edler. Seems like the right call.

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09-01-2012, 05:06 PM
  #730
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Originally Posted by Proto View Post
I don't think that's true. I thought Salo was dreadful last year, and I said before last season that relying on him in the Top 4 was a huge mistake, since it was obvious Ballard wouldn't be able to move up into the Top 4 given he's only useful on the left side.

I know it's not popular around here, but I'm glad Salo left. For anything more than third-pairing money on a one-year term, he just wasn't worth it.

Anyway, we'll see. Hopefully Edler takes the next step and meshes with Garrison. I still expect that if he doesn't and Garrison ends up back on the left side, he'll see more difficult minutes than Edler. Seems like the right call.
I think everyone would agree you had to let Salo go for that term and salary. They may have even let him go a year earlier if Ehrhoff could be kept for a respectable price. Be nice to have another righty on the back end. Tanev working on his shot is a good thing that's for sure, Corrado ahead of where they thought he would be is great also. Ballard can be traded or sent down at any time if we need cap space to bring in a righty too. Salo didn't use his bomb as much as I would have liked, I think Garrison will. Not sure how I feel about Connauton yet, his tweets seem kinda immature, hopefully his hockey sense isn't. He was a all star in the AHL so hopefully he is just a little cocky and the core will bring him down to earth when he makes the show.

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09-02-2012, 02:08 AM
  #731
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Not sure if this is the place to post this or if it should have an thread of is own.

Sedins have said in Swedish press multiple times that they want to play for Modo before they retire and they dont want to play there when they are on their last legs (like Forsberg & Näslund). They will be 33 when their contract is up and i doubt they will resign any longer then 1 or 2 years but they might actually move home, so they dont be to old to play for Modo. If there is a lockout Vancouvers window for a cup will close fast. The only good with a lockout might be that a the Sedins wont play in europe (dont want to move their kids out of school) so that might prolong their career.

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09-02-2012, 02:24 AM
  #732
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Originally Posted by cosmicnavigator View Post
Not sure if this is the place to post this or if it should have an thread of is own.

Sedins have said in Swedish press multiple times that they want to play for Modo before they retire and they dont want to play there when they are on their last legs (like Forsberg & Näslund). They will be 33 when their contract is up and i doubt they will resign any longer then 1 or 2 years but they might actually move home, so they dont be to old to play for Modo. If there is a lockout Vancouvers window for a cup will close fast. The only good with a lockout might be that a the Sedins wont play in europe (dont want to move their kids out of school) so that might prolong their career.
literally none of this makes any sense really.

aside from the Sedins potentially heading back to Sweden before they're entirely burnt out...which we've all known as a likely scenario for a good while now...?

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Old
09-02-2012, 03:34 AM
  #733
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cosmicnavigator View Post
Not sure if this is the place to post this or if it should have an thread of is own.

Sedins have said in Swedish press multiple times that they want to play for Modo before they retire and they dont want to play there when they are on their last legs (like Forsberg & Näslund). They will be 33 when their contract is up and i doubt they will resign any longer then 1 or 2 years but they might actually move home, so they dont be to old to play for Modo. If there is a lockout Vancouvers window for a cup will close fast. The only good with a lockout might be that a the Sedins wont play in europe (dont want to move their kids out of school) so that might prolong their career.
Oh well. They can go. More cap space for us.

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Old
09-02-2012, 03:40 AM
  #734
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Quote:
Originally Posted by biturbo19 View Post
literally none of this makes any sense really.

aside from the Sedins potentially heading back to Sweden before they're entirely burnt out...which we've all known as a likely scenario for a good while now...?
Naslund said the same thing I believe around 2005. I believe there will be many disenchanted fans myself included if they actually follow through.

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Old
09-02-2012, 03:45 AM
  #735
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Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
Oh well. They can go. More cap space for us.
Yeah, we'll need that cap space to sign superstars like Huselius when they hit the market.

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Old
09-02-2012, 03:58 AM
  #736
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Yeah, we'll need that cap space to sign superstars like Huselius when they hit the market.
You mean Cammaleri and Gaborik.

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Old
09-02-2012, 04:43 AM
  #737
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Why would the Sedins want to stay in the NHL? This is a league that condones actual assaults causing injury. If Daniel struggles at all with his recovery, he'd be crazy to come back here and play again. For what? A ring? Only children believe in the ring and the Sedins are all grown up. Money? They have lots of money, they live like norms.

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Old
09-02-2012, 11:09 AM
  #738
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Originally Posted by JuniorNelson View Post
Why would the Sedins want to stay in the NHL? This is a league that condones actual assaults causing injury. If Daniel struggles at all with his recovery, he'd be crazy to come back here and play again. For what? A ring? Only children believe in the ring and the Sedins are all grown up. Money? They have lots of money, they live like norms.
Loyalty? A sense of responsibility that they are the face of this team?

Also, after we lost to Boston, one of the Sedins(I can't remember which one) mentioned that you can't get over a loss like that until we actually win it.

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Old
09-02-2012, 11:13 PM
  #739
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Originally Posted by JuniorNelson View Post
Cogburn that is some bold stuff! Awesome!

Gillis is jam challenged and won't dare do anything so useful.

Since the season is apparently suspended, I think we might as well talk about next year.

I don't think these guys will be giving out discounts like Gillis likes to get. A year off in the middle of your career will do that to you.

In the event of a fifty eight million dollar cap, there isn't any room for them anyway. LOL!
Unless there is a huge rollback to go with a $58m cap there isn't room for them on anyone else's team either: advantage Gillis.

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Old
09-03-2012, 02:19 AM
  #740
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Originally Posted by Reverend Mayhem View Post
Naslund said the same thing I believe around 2005. I believe there will be many disenchanted fans myself included if they actually follow through.
If only Naslund had of done that.....the team would have been better off. Neidermayer would have come in for 3 years...

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09-03-2012, 03:23 AM
  #741
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If only Naslund had of done that.....the team would have been better off. Neidermayer would have come in for 3 years...
It really seemed like Naslund's heart wasn't in it after the lockout. Especially after Bertuzzi was traded, but the same Naslund we saw pre-lockout was never seen again.

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09-03-2012, 03:33 AM
  #742
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You mean Cammaleri and Gaborik.
Gaborik already has a house in North Van so he's a lock to sign.

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Old
09-03-2012, 04:33 AM
  #743
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Gaborik already has a house in North Van so he's a lock to sign.
West Van..

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Old
09-03-2012, 12:10 PM
  #744
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Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
It really seemed like Naslund's heart wasn't in it after the lockout. Especially after Bertuzzi was traded, but the same Naslund we saw pre-lockout was never seen again.
I think those are just incidental narratives (heart, his friend being traded). I think he just got older, lost a bit of zip on his wristshot, and the team around him dissolved into a talentless mess. He fell from grace as quickly and unexpectedly as he ascended to it.

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09-03-2012, 01:53 PM
  #745
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As been said a number of times, Naslund was never the same after the Moore hit.

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Old
09-03-2012, 05:59 PM
  #746
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beside points mentioned above

dont forget that when we loaded up our offensive players...sedins and naslund

naslund was playing at a ppg(even taking into account that they didnt mesh 100%)


........they moved him to the 2ndline just to generate more offence,playing with isbister and such(basicaly 4th liners)....didnt help his production at all.....nor his happiness factor playing with scrubs.if only it was a couple tyear later playing with Demitria and sundin or kesler(offensive)

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09-03-2012, 06:13 PM
  #747
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Originally Posted by crazyforhockey View Post
beside points mentioned above

dont forget that when we loaded up our offensive players...sedins and naslund

naslund was playing at a ppg(even taking into account that they didnt mesh 100%)


........they moved him to the 2ndline just to generate more offence,playing with isbister and such(basicaly 4th liners)....didnt help his production at all.....nor his happiness factor playing with scrubs.if only it was a couple tyear later playing with Demitria and sundin or kesler(offensive)
I wish we could have seen Markus play on a line with a more seasoned Kesler.

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Old
09-04-2012, 12:30 AM
  #748
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Just thought I'd run a scenario for the fun of it...

2012 / 2013 $58 mill cap ~ No Rollback

CAPGEEK.COM USER GENERATED ROSTER
My Custom Lineup
FORWARDS
Daniel Sedin ($6.100m) / Henrik Sedin ($6.100m) / Alexandre Burrows ($2.000m)
David Booth ($4.250m) / Ryan Kesler ($5.000m) / Chris Higgins ($1.900m)
Mason Raymond ($2.275m) / Jordan Schroeder ($1.025m) / Jannik Hansen ($1.350m)
Dale Weise ($0.615m) / Maxim Lapierre ($1.000m) / Zack Kassian ($0.870m)
Aaron Volpatti ($0.600m) / Andrew Ebbett ($0.600m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Dan Hamhuis ($4.500m) / Kevin Bieksa ($4.600m)
Alexander Edler ($3.250m) / Jason Garrison ($4.600m)
Andrew Alberts ($1.225m) / Chris Tanev ($0.900m)
Kevin Connauton ($0.900m) /
GOALTENDERS
Roberto Luongo ($5.333m)
Cory Schneider ($4.000m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $58,000,000; CAP PAYROLL: $62,993,333; BONUSES: $310,000
CAP SPACE (23-man roster):- $4,993,333

----------------------------------------------

This is pretty much worst case scenario...

Ballard off the team
Malhotra off the team
Have until Kesler gets back to trade Luongo (unless long term injuries extend this)... So, I assume at least around Christmas... In the meantime, Ebbett is in the line-up somewhere as well...

Definitely hurts... but still should be a playoff team, IMO, given that basically the same roster (minus Ballard and Malhotra, and with Schneider full time - a real capable goaltender himself) was easily a playoff team last year...

How much of a cup contender depends on how screwed other teams are... I'd think the Canucks, while hurt, aren't as screwed as other playoff-calibre teams would be...

Even if, for some reason, the NHLPA accepts this worst case situation, I still like the Canucks chances... I worry about the following year, the following offseason... Can't plan too far ahead with the environment changed so significantly like this... Who knows how things play out... If I can get Burrows around or under $4 (or $4.5?) and Edler around $5 (or $5.5?) or so - I absolutely do that - and figure out how to adapt to that later... Those two players are real important for continued success, IMO...

In no way do I think this worst case scenario would happen... But, if it did, I think the Canucks can adapt fine enough...

A $63 mill cap (with no roll back) and no players need to be taken off the roster - except Luongo still needs to be traded by the time Kesler gets back (unless other long term injuries extend this)...

I'd like the $70 mill cap back... As pieces can be added to strengthen this team with a $70 mill cap (as well as ample room to keep the good thing rolling for a while longer), instead of trying to hold on to as much of a good thing as you can, for as long as you can with a lower cap...

However, maybe it would be better with a low cap (and no roll back) - depending on how screwed other teams would be? Not having to outrun the bear, just outrun the guy next to you... It would be real interesting to see projected rosters on all teams that would be affected with the worst case scenario... It might actually be the best for the Canucks - because of Gillis' philosophy to take discounts to play on this team... This philosophy hurts in some cases (i.e. Ehrhoff)... but, in a low cap / no rollback scenario, it should really help - compared to the situation other competitive teams are probably in...

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Old
09-04-2012, 01:04 AM
  #749
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Originally Posted by Cogburn View Post
Besides, Iginla might not be scoring 50-50 any more, but he's far from a has been
Not that I disagree with you but it should be pointed out that Neely was traded for a 25 year old centre two years removed from finishing 5th in scoring (below Bossy, ahead of Kurri) in 83-84 - we got him in 86-87 after he scored 29 goals and 76 points in 79 games.

It could easily be argued that Pederson, given his age and prodution, had more value than Iginla does now...Kassian and Neely would be comparables (Neely was playing on our 3rd line as more of a goon than a player and had regressed in points).


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09-04-2012, 01:28 AM
  #750
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Originally Posted by Cogburn View Post

Besides, Iginla might not be scoring 50-50 any more, but he's far from a has been
How far from a has been is he? He is thirty-five, now. How many more years do you think he has? It is a gamble, no? This is why I wonder what Gillis is thinking sometimes, chasing a guy like Doan? What if he signs and the season is lost? He will be thirty-six and a year removed from competitive hockey, how does that sound?

Does Vancouver not already have a Captain? Is Henrik not an adequate leader?

If Gillis was a savvy GM, he'd be positioning the team to get younger and more rugged to face the annual suspension of rules the NHL calls playoff hockey. If he thinks Kassian (for example) needs mentoring, HIRE A COACH! Watching Sundin labour on the ice should have been enough to cure this wierd mental lapse he has had several times. Vignault might be masterful at hiding players from exposure, but he cannot do it with the top six. Those players should be able to play against any other line. What will the Oilers kids do when faced with Doan and the Sedins?

Luongo lost his job to a younger goalie. This is as it should be. Who is pushing the Sedins? Doan?

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