HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > NHL Western Conference > Pacific Division > Vancouver Canucks
Mobile Hockey's Future Become a Sponsor Site Rules Support Forum vBookie Page 2
Notices

Canucks and Burrows - Agent hoping to negotiate deal today (Sep 14)

Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools
Old
08-23-2012, 10:29 PM
  #276
Mr. Canucklehead
Mod Supervisor
The Modfather
 
Mr. Canucklehead's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Kitimat, BC
Country: Canada
Posts: 25,593
vCash: 50
Holy smokes, I didn't mean to set off an argument with an innocuous comment about Burrows being clutch. Suffice to say, we can all have different opinions on the subject. I agree with both the sides who say he's clutch and that he's a good player, and I don't think it has to be one or the other or neither or what have you.

I just want him signed, dad-gummit.

Mr. Canucklehead is offline  
Old
08-23-2012, 10:36 PM
  #277
Petey Cee
reel gud
 
Petey Cee's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Victoria, BC
Country: Canada
Posts: 3,591
vCash: 500
Burrows sucks, who would pay over 4 million for an undrafted ECHL-playing-in scrub?

hueheuheuehuehueh

Petey Cee is offline  
Old
08-24-2012, 12:26 AM
  #278
14s incisor
FOS COrp CEO
 
14s incisor's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Republic of VI
Country: Canada
Posts: 1,327
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by LiquidSnake View Post
In terms of clutchness.

Burrows has the ability to rise to the occasion and go above his own skill. It's all heart. Reminds me of Linden.
Agreed. Well said.

14s incisor is offline  
Old
08-24-2012, 12:31 AM
  #279
vector209
Registered User
 
vector209's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Country: United States
Posts: 624
vCash: 500
If the E. Kane rumors are true, sign and trade Burrows + extra for Kane.

vector209 is offline  
Old
08-24-2012, 12:38 AM
  #280
CCF
This is the year....
 
CCF's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Across Canada
Country: Canada
Posts: 6,318
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by vector209 View Post
If the E. Kane rumors are true, sign and trade Burrows + extra for Kane.
That's going to have to be a lot of extra, as much as I love Burr.

CCF is offline  
Old
08-24-2012, 10:07 AM
  #281
Luck 6
\\_______
 
Luck 6's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 7,769
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by shortshorts View Post
Because there is no such thing as "clutch". They are just good players.

Lets say that Burrows and Daniel scores a constant rate of ~.25GPG. They are bound to score a GTG or a GWG more often than others especially if you make the assumption that the majority of games will be one goal games.
While I agree with you in principle, I wonder if you've ever played sports in general. Some players just find a way to elevate their game and go that extra mile during key situation. Often this leads to a "clutch" reputation as they manage to deliver during those key times. This is the type of player Burrows appears to be. Maybe "clutch" in general is somewhat falsified, because the counter argument would be: Doesn't Burrows give it his all every shift? I suppose there are two different schools of thought, but whatever you want to call it some players seem to have a pedigree to perform in key situations. Some more than others, more realistically.

Luck 6 is online now  
Old
08-24-2012, 11:36 AM
  #282
blendini
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 515
vCash: 500
Burrows is a good player that becomes a great player with the Sedins'. On other teams, he would be a 2nd liner or even a 3rd.

He should not be getting Kesler $. I would like to see him get $4m with a home town discount. He takes home 3.8m. Signed for 4yrs.

blendini is offline  
Old
08-24-2012, 04:16 PM
  #283
Scurr
Registered User
 
Scurr's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Whalley
Country: Canada
Posts: 10,287
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Proto View Post
Burrows is a better even strength goal scorer than Ryan Kesler.
You think that's the case? If Ryan Kesler played those zone starts with two elite offensive players, would he really score less?

I'm asking honestly, I'm not sure how to put Burrs goals in perspective. Nobody in the league comes close in terms of zone starts + getting to play all those shifts with two elite offensive players.

Scurr is online now  
Old
08-24-2012, 04:24 PM
  #284
Proto
Registered User
 
Proto's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 10,812
vCash: 833
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scurr View Post
You think that's the case? If Ryan Kesler played those zone starts with two elite offensive players, would he really score less?

I'm asking honestly, I'm not sure how to put Burrs goals in perspective. Nobody in the league comes close in terms of zone starts + getting to play all those shifts with two elite offensive players.
Sorry, to be clear, I'm not saying based on talent that he is. I'm saying based on his results over the past four seasons he appears to be a better ES goal scorer.

It's possible Kesler would outperform him playing on the wing with the Sedins, but there's not nearly enough evidence to support it/claim that.

Either way, it wouldn't make a ton of sense to drop Kesler on that line with a minute left instead of Burrows, regardless of where someone falls on the clutch spectrum.


Last edited by Proto: 08-24-2012 at 04:33 PM.
Proto is offline  
Old
08-24-2012, 04:32 PM
  #285
Proto
Registered User
 
Proto's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 10,812
vCash: 833
Quote:
Originally Posted by Luck 6 View Post
While I agree with you in principle, I wonder if you've ever played sports in general. Some players just find a way to elevate their game and go that extra mile during key situation. Often this leads to a "clutch" reputation as they manage to deliver during those key times. This is the type of player Burrows appears to be. Maybe "clutch" in general is somewhat falsified, because the counter argument would be: Doesn't Burrows give it his all every shift? I suppose there are two different schools of thought, but whatever you want to call it some players seem to have a pedigree to perform in key situations. Some more than others, more realistically.
That's not the counter argument.

Here's the counter argument: what is "clutch"? How do you define it? Is scoring the 1st goal in a one nothing game "clutch"? What about scoring the first goal in a 10-0 game? At the time the goal was scored, was there a fundamental difference?

Is scoring on a breakaway with 30 seconds left more "clutch" than scoring on one with 5 minutes left? 20? Is a guy that scores on 75% of his breakways but is a stastistically meaningless 0-for-3 in breakaways in the final 2 minutes of a game less "clutch" than someone that scores on 50% of his breakaways but is a statistically meaningless 2-for-3 on breakaways in the last two minutes of a game?

Furthermore, the most "clutch" time of hockey is the playoffs, and the vast majority of NHL players have a sample size that is less than a full NHL season's worth of hockey. A season of hockey isn't enough time for shooting percentages to normalize, so a lot of the narratives that are created around clutch and un-clutch performers are just the human brain seeking to construct simple narratives out of a random dataset too complex to draw strong conclusions from.

You can obviously watch a guy and think, "Man, that guy is consistent, and he brings the same consistent, high-level play every season and into the playoffs," and your human observations may very well be right. I just have very little sense that it has something to do with that guy being more or less clutch than many of his colleagues.

Don't get me wrong: I do sort of believe there's an "anti-clutch", where a player loses his ability to focus or overcome mental hurdles and performs below expectations (see: Cloutier, Dan.). And I'm sure there's something to be said for players that keep a strong mental focus and maintain a high level of play -- I just think you'd see it all the time in all situations. It doesn't make much sense that it would just magically appear in big moments of big hockey games.

That's all I'm saying.

Proto is offline  
Old
08-24-2012, 04:37 PM
  #286
LiquidSnake*
Agent of Chaos...
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Vancouver, BC
Country: Canada
Posts: 31,519
vCash: 500
Players being able to deliver in important times (last few minutes etc...) under pressure can be considered clutch. Especially if there's an anti clutch

LiquidSnake* is offline  
Old
08-24-2012, 04:40 PM
  #287
Wisp
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 6,107
vCash: 500
THat's my thoughts exactly, Proto.

Except about Burr. There's something, dare i say, "magical" about Burr... I feel so stupid for saying that, but it's how I feel.

Wisp is offline  
Old
08-24-2012, 04:41 PM
  #288
dave babych returns
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,850
vCash: 500
Proto, Good post and I agree.

I think really what clutch is, is the ability to not falter when there is immense pressure - however, hockey is a game of bounces and unpredictability and a lot of the players fortunate enough to be seen as the epitome of "clutch" are no more than most of their peers, and have simply been fortunate enough to find the puck on their stick in a scoring chance at the right time, enough times for people to remember.

I think Alex Burrows reputation as a clutch player is earned by his consistency and cemented by his execution on chances at the right time over the years.

However, I would also put forth the idea that Burrows maintains this reputation in part because unlike players like the Sedins or Ryan Kesler, he is not expected to put the team on his back and carry them.

dave babych returns is online now  
Old
08-24-2012, 04:47 PM
  #289
Barney Gumble
Registered User
 
Barney Gumble's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 22,709
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by dave babych returns View Post
However, I would also put forth the idea that Burrows maintains this reputation in part because unlike players like the Sedins or Ryan Kesler, he is not expected to put the team on his back and carry them.
Kesler's problem is that he can't stay healthy (as he has shown the ability to carry the team in the Preds series).

Barney Gumble is offline  
Old
08-24-2012, 04:48 PM
  #290
Dado
Guest
 
Country:
Posts: n/a
vCash:
Nice post, Proto.

"Clutch" is a great hook for storytelling - and that's important, sports is mostly about the stories we get to tell each other - but in terms of actual player performance jt's not really a useful concept.

The only caveat I'd add to that is there are athletes who choke - that does happen, IMO. Not nearly as often as the term is used - but it does happen. And there are players who are so goo that they can (eg) loaf through the regular season and get serious in the playoffs - but that is increasingly rare as the pressures to generate revenue during the regular season have increased. And that's not being "clutch' - that is more accurately described as being "lazy".

 
Old
08-24-2012, 04:53 PM
  #291
Proto
Registered User
 
Proto's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 10,812
vCash: 833
Quote:
Originally Posted by LiquidSnake View Post
Players being able to deliver in important times (last few minutes etc...) under pressure can be considered clutch. Especially if there's an anti clutch
You're free to draw whatever conclusions you want, even if they're based on meaningless, small data samples.

I put "anti-clutch" in quotes for a reason. Usually in sports it's called "the yips", which are real. The easiest examples to find are in baseball, where former All-Star players like Chuck Knoblach or Steve Sax will find themselves incapable of throwing a ball to 1st base, something they've done dozens of times a day since they were young men.

I think there's a very real and dangerous possibility in sports for players to simply hit a streak of bad luck and internalize that bad luck until it changes their performance. That's the sort of thing sports psychologists work to break down -- it's also something Luongo worked on, because one of his biggest weaknesses in recent years was how long it took him to "reset" after a bad goal or period, whether it was his fault or his team's fault.

But that's more about players buying into dumb narratives. It doesn't prove anything about some magical property of "clutch".

If you take 25 great players and have them play 50 playoff games, it's almost a statistical inevitability that a small number of those players will vastly outperform their typical standard of play, a small number will vastly underperform their typical standard of play, and the majority will be pretty close to their normal play. That's what happens with small sample sizes.

People then draw unwarranted conclusions. The nice thing about a lot of the advanced analytics people are using now is that it helps eliminate some of the emotional, cultural bias we have towards interpreting complex events.

Proto is offline  
Old
08-24-2012, 04:57 PM
  #292
Proto
Registered User
 
Proto's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 10,812
vCash: 833
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dado View Post
Nice post, Proto.

"Clutch" is a great hook for storytelling - and that's important, sports is mostly about the stories we get to tell each other - but in terms of actual player performance jt's not really a useful concept.

The only caveat I'd add to that is there are athletes who choke - that does happen, IMO. Not nearly as often as the term is used - but it does happen. And there are players who are so goo that they can (eg) loaf through the regular season and get serious in the playoffs - but that is increasingly rare as the pressures to generate revenue during the regular season have increased. And that's not being "clutch' - that is more accurately described as being "lazy".
Yes, I agree. One of the best things about sports is the narratives that it creates, which are an important cultural glue. It's just important to understand that they're often vastly overblown -- and the silly ones aren't very constructive narratives (not for me, anyway).

Besides, it's not like the guy that gets hot and scores 45 points in 25 playoff games is not impressive. It's still a guy playing at his absolute peak and taking advantage of a moment to put his stamp on history. I just think when you're analyzing events afterwards you need to step back from the trees, especially when it comes to nuts-and-bolts issues like contract negotiations.

There's no clutch-exception to the salary cap

Proto is offline  
Old
08-24-2012, 05:07 PM
  #293
shortshorts
The OG Kesler Hater
 
shortshorts's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Country: Canada
Posts: 11,853
vCash: 457
Quote:
Originally Posted by Luck 6 View Post
While I agree with you in principle, I wonder if you've ever played sports in general. Some players just find a way to elevate their game and go that extra mile during key situation. Often this leads to a "clutch" reputation as they manage to deliver during those key times. This is the type of player Burrows appears to be. Maybe "clutch" in general is somewhat falsified, because the counter argument would be: Doesn't Burrows give it his all every shift? I suppose there are two different schools of thought, but whatever you want to call it some players seem to have a pedigree to perform in key situations. Some more than others, more realistically.
I've played competitive volleyball for years. I know what this perception of "clutch" is. Here is a question, in a game, and you need to score/win a point/etc, who is your coach going to put out on the ice? Your best players. Not because they are better in high pressure than others, but rather because your best players produce at a better rate consistently. I'm making the assumption that there is no case of "anti-clutch" going on. If one of your players scores a goal, he's simply doing his job, but he's painted as "scoring a clutch tying goal". A great example is using percentages in shooting in basketball.

However, I'm going to forward down Proto's last paragraph in his post as he worded my point much more clearly than I ever will .

Quote:
Originally Posted by Proto View Post
That's not the counter argument.

Here's the counter argument: what is "clutch"? How do you define it? Is scoring the 1st goal in a one nothing game "clutch"? What about scoring the first goal in a 10-0 game? At the time the goal was scored, was there a fundamental difference?

Is scoring on a breakaway with 30 seconds left more "clutch" than scoring on one with 5 minutes left? 20? Is a guy that scores on 75% of his breakways but is a stastistically meaningless 0-for-3 in breakaways in the final 2 minutes of a game less "clutch" than someone that scores on 50% of his breakaways but is a statistically meaningless 2-for-3 on breakaways in the last two minutes of a game?

Furthermore, the most "clutch" time of hockey is the playoffs, and the vast majority of NHL players have a sample size that is less than a full NHL season's worth of hockey. A season of hockey isn't enough time for shooting percentages to normalize, so a lot of the narratives that are created around clutch and un-clutch performers are just the human brain seeking to construct simple narratives out of a random dataset too complex to draw strong conclusions from.

You can obviously watch a guy and think, "Man, that guy is consistent, and he brings the same consistent, high-level play every season and into the playoffs," and your human observations may very well be right. I just have very little sense that it has something to do with that guy being more or less clutch than many of his colleagues.

Don't get me wrong: I do sort of believe there's an "anti-clutch", where a player loses his ability to focus or overcome mental hurdles and performs below expectations (see: Cloutier, Dan.). And I'm sure there's something to be said for players that keep a strong mental focus and maintain a high level of play -- I just think you'd see it all the time in all situations. It doesn't make much sense that it would just magically appear in big moments of big hockey games.

That's all I'm saying.
To add on to his point of "anti-clutch", and incorporate it with mine, players who are perceived as clutch are generally players who have great vision, high hockey IQ, and players who do all the "little things" right consistently.

Quote:
Originally Posted by dave babych returns View Post
Proto, Good post and I agree.

I think really what clutch is, is the ability to not falter when there is immense pressure - however, hockey is a game of bounces and unpredictability and a lot of the players fortunate enough to be seen as the epitome of "clutch" are no more than most of their peers, and have simply been fortunate enough to find the puck on their stick in a scoring chance at the right time, enough times for people to remember.

I think Alex Burrows reputation as a clutch player is earned by his consistency and cemented by his execution on chances at the right time over the years.

However, I would also put forth the idea that Burrows maintains this reputation in part because unlike players like the Sedins or Ryan Kesler, he is not expected to put the team on his back and carry them.
Another thing that was mentioned in Proto's great post was the mentioned of sample size. I mentioned this earlier too. Why is Eberle considered clutch? Why is Burrows clutch? Why is Kesler not clutch?

The biggest reason for why Burrows is heralded as clutch is because he has high hockey IQ, great vision, and plays a very consistent game. Combine that with Burrows play style, a opportunistic goal scorer, and it creates a "magical feeling" about Burrows, when really, he's just scoring at his normal pace.


Last edited by shortshorts: 08-24-2012 at 05:24 PM.
shortshorts is offline  
Old
08-24-2012, 05:12 PM
  #294
Derp Kassian
Registered User
 
Derp Kassian's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: Vancouver
Country: Canada
Posts: 2,374
vCash: 500
If a player tends to have more positive random events in OT/last mins/GWG/GTG he's clutch. If a good player has that in the season but not in the playoffs he's a choker. Or something like that.

Derp Kassian is offline  
Old
08-24-2012, 05:25 PM
  #295
dave babych returns
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,850
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Barney Gumble View Post
Kesler's problem is that he can't stay healthy (as he has shown the ability to carry the team in the Preds series).
Well, his other "problem" is that he's the team's best defensive center by a huge margin.

Nobody thought he was particularly 'clutch' when he went dry in the first round while going head to head with Jonathan Toews, or for that matter for most of the third round while he went head to head with Joe Thornton.

dave babych returns is online now  
Old
08-24-2012, 06:25 PM
  #296
LiquidSnake*
Agent of Chaos...
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Vancouver, BC
Country: Canada
Posts: 31,519
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Proto View Post
You're free to draw whatever conclusions you want, even if they're based on meaningless, small data samples.

I put "anti-clutch" in quotes for a reason. Usually in sports it's called "the yips", which are real. The easiest examples to find are in baseball, where former All-Star players like Chuck Knoblach or Steve Sax will find themselves incapable of throwing a ball to 1st base, something they've done dozens of times a day since they were young men.

I think there's a very real and dangerous possibility in sports for players to simply hit a streak of bad luck and internalize that bad luck until it changes their performance. That's the sort of thing sports psychologists work to break down -- it's also something Luongo worked on, because one of his biggest weaknesses in recent years was how long it took him to "reset" after a bad goal or period, whether it was his fault or his team's fault.

But that's more about players buying into dumb narratives. It doesn't prove anything about some magical property of "clutch".

If you take 25 great players and have them play 50 playoff games, it's almost a statistical inevitability that a small number of those players will vastly outperform their typical standard of play, a small number will vastly underperform their typical standard of play, and the majority will be pretty close to their normal play. That's what happens with small sample sizes.

People then draw unwarranted conclusions. The nice thing about a lot of the advanced analytics people are using now is that it helps eliminate some of the emotional, cultural bias we have towards interpreting complex events.
It appears you're attributing Clutch to a magical property. I simply define clutch as being able to excel under pressure.

Burrows vs Raymond for example.

LiquidSnake* is offline  
Old
08-24-2012, 06:54 PM
  #297
CanuckLuck
Registered User
 
CanuckLuck's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Kelowna, BC
Country: Canada
Posts: 1,455
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by LiquidSnake View Post
It appears you're attributing Clutch to a magical property. I simply define clutch as being able to excel under pressure.

Burrows vs Raymond for example.
Exactly how I feel.

Not every player performs similarly in different pressure situations. Everyone is different in that matter. And when it comes to Alex Burrows, he doesn't clench the stick too tightly or over-think the play. He makes the right play and scores the big goal. That's 'clutch' to me, as well. When these types of players score the big goal over the course of their entire career, I don't think it's a statistical anomaly.

CanuckLuck is offline  
Old
08-24-2012, 07:26 PM
  #298
Proto
Registered User
 
Proto's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 10,812
vCash: 833
Quote:
Originally Posted by LiquidSnake View Post
It appears you're attributing Clutch to a magical property. I simply define clutch as being able to excel under pressure.

Burrows vs Raymond for example.
I think you're missing the thrust of my argument.

Proto is offline  
Old
08-24-2012, 07:29 PM
  #299
Tim Calhoun
Jim Benning Fan
 
Tim Calhoun's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Country: Mexico
Posts: 8,993
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by LiquidSnake View Post
It appears you're attributing Clutch to a magical property. I simply define clutch as being able to excel under pressure.

Burrows vs Raymond for example.
Which one of the two do you consider clutch?

Tim Calhoun is offline  
Old
08-24-2012, 07:49 PM
  #300
Verviticus
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 8,219
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by CanuckLuck View Post
Exactly how I feel.

Not every player performs similarly in different pressure situations. Everyone is different in that matter. And when it comes to Alex Burrows, he doesn't clench the stick too tightly or over-think the play. He makes the right play and scores the big goal. That's 'clutch' to me, as well. When these types of players score the big goal over the course of their entire career, I don't think it's a statistical anomaly.
it's not a statistical anomaly, it's a statistical certainty. there's hundreds of players in the nhl and some will necessarily deviate from the norm. the ones that do get labelled as clutch

the problem is when you look at a set of numbers that assumes clutch does not exist, you can very easily get results that match real life. if taking a set of information and following it naturally results in a thing that mirrors reality, why would the cause of what happens in reality be different from the set you used theoretically?

my issue with "clutch" is that people aren't happy to celebrate past events over future ones. burrows has had some incredible plays in canucks history and it leaves him in a special place for fans, because he's been the hero multiple times over. this should be celebrated and enjoyed, because they are things that happened, but we shouldn't use these events to predict that he's going to be the hero again.

Verviticus is offline  
Closed Thread

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 03:22 PM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2015, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. 2015 All Rights Reserved.