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Off-season Armchair GM Thread Part IX

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Old
08-29-2012, 10:56 AM
  #401
Hatrick Marleau
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Originally Posted by Arrch View Post
So do you think he will sustain a ~20% shooting percentage with ~13% on-ice shooting percentage or will he (and his linemates) shoot A LOT more?
No, but I expect him to be at PPG or better next season.

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08-29-2012, 11:10 AM
  #402
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No, but I expect him to be at PPG or better next season.
It wasn't a yes or no question. If you expect him to better his point totals, then you either expect he will improve upon a 13% on-ice shooting percentage, or his line will shoot a lot more. I guess he could also be getting Stamkos as a line mate, so is that what you are saying? How is that trade going to work out?

Most Oilers fans will tell you he'll retain that ridiculous shooting percentage, because he's "selective" with his shots.

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08-29-2012, 11:34 AM
  #403
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Originally Posted by Hatrick Marleau View Post
There is no way I see Pavelski being close to a PPG on the Oilers, even in sheltered minutes.
Pavelski got 61 points in 82 games despite going against top-lines every game, and despite the fact that he was severely injured by the end of the season.

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Braun did better than Demers with White. Part of that had to do with White getting used to the system. Either way I'd prefer to keep them both and I would trade Braun before I'd trade Demers.
And the other part had to do with Demers sucking. I've already said I like Demers more (and I believe his injury caused a poor off-season), but you are severely underrating Braun here. Both are #5s right now, and both have the potential to be a #3. Saying Demers will be a #3 and Braun will never be is just ridiculous at this point.
Regardless, it's really apples and oranges. One plays like Dan Boyle, the other plays like Duncan Keith.

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08-29-2012, 11:38 AM
  #404
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Here is a question worth debating. Does a $58m cap help or hurt the Sharks this season. Sharks could get under that number (depending on the escrow effect) by trading Clowe/Murray and if need be buying out Handzus. Depending on escrow they could possibly even sneak by with just Handzus and Murray going out.

Will other teams with 'better' rosters be forced to part with more important pieces? Will teams with cap space now improve enough to catch up to the Sharks?

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08-29-2012, 11:50 AM
  #405
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Here is a question worth debating. Does a $58m cap help or hurt the Sharks this season. Sharks could get under that number (depending on the escrow effect) by trading Clowe/Murray and if need be buying out Handzus. Depending on escrow they could possibly even sneak by with just Handzus and Murray going out.

Will other teams with 'better' rosters be forced to part with more important pieces? Will teams with cap space now improve enough to catch up to the Sharks?
Been wondering about this myself.

If we could make do with trading Murray and buying out Handzus then we would be in a lot better position than some other teams.

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08-29-2012, 11:59 AM
  #406
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Been wondering about this myself.

If we could make do with trading Murray and buying out Handzus then we would be in a lot better position than some other teams.
That was kind of my thinking. It's hard to predict, but a reduced cap may actually be the best situation the Sharks could have at the moment. It will also keep the Sharks from having to sign any inflated contracts since they have been smart about their re-signings.

The only real 'problem' I forsee is Boyle, it would make him more difficult to trade and if he does start to decline his contract could be an issue.

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08-29-2012, 12:13 PM
  #407
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Originally Posted by hockeyball View Post
Here is a question worth debating. Does a $58m cap help or hurt the Sharks this season. Sharks could get under that number (depending on the escrow effect) by trading Clowe/Murray and if need be buying out Handzus. Depending on escrow they could possibly even sneak by with just Handzus and Murray going out.

Will other teams with 'better' rosters be forced to part with more important pieces? Will teams with cap space now improve enough to catch up to the Sharks?
Not sure what the rules are or how we'd have to get under the cap. This is a proposal and still needs work at this point, i don't see it as making any difference as clearly their would have to be some cap re-calculating.

Their may be some kind of one time buy out which would help us with Handzus, whom i still think we should have bought out this past summer. I'm sure we could move Murray for a 2nd or 3rd round pick. We might get more at the deadline for him. It would be nice to see that we can get a 1st for an aging defensive defense man for a change. Didn't we give up a 1st for Rivet?? WTF.

Reducing our cap would be nice for the owners, I don't believe it's a big deal as they are committed to what we're doing right now anyway. I more look at the opportunity cap space gained by losing Handzus and Murray - we could solve our forward depth problem with that much cap if DW could find a GM to make a deal with.

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08-29-2012, 12:23 PM
  #408
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Will other teams with 'better' rosters be forced to part with more important pieces? Will teams with cap space now improve enough to catch up to the Sharks?
The lowered cap-hit would hardly affect LA.

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08-29-2012, 12:53 PM
  #409
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The lowered cap-hit would hardly affect LA.
Vancouver would be in a bit of trouble though.

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08-29-2012, 12:59 PM
  #410
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Originally Posted by WTFetus View Post
Pavelski got 61 points in 82 games despite going against top-lines every game, and despite the fact that he was severely injured by the end of the season.
Playing with Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau and getting #1PP time. Pavelski doesn't have the offensive skill to put up close to a PPG. I think Pavelski is a little overrated.

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And the other part had to do with Demers sucking. I've already said I like Demers more (and I believe his injury caused a poor off-season), but you are severely underrating Braun here. Both are #5s right now, and both have the potential to be a #3. Saying Demers will be a #3 and Braun will never be is just ridiculous at this point.
Regardless, it's really apples and oranges. One plays like Dan Boyle, the other plays like Duncan Keith.
Braun is overrated by many on here. He didn't even have that good of a season last year. He hasn't shown me much. Not having Demers in the WCF two years ago hurt us. You could argue that he was our best or 2nd best defenseman that playoff run.

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08-29-2012, 01:00 PM
  #411
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Vancouver would be in a bit of trouble though.
They would have to let LU go for cheap.

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08-29-2012, 01:15 PM
  #412
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This Demers vs. Braun argument is pretty ridiculous. It's a tough one and close.

Here's something nobody has really mentioned. Braun before last season started was considered to barely be a prospect because of his poor skating. Boy did he really do something to improve that though!

With that said, if he can go from weak to strong skating in one off season, then there is no reason to keep saying Demers has more upside. Hell, Braun probably hasn't even figured exactly what he can pull off with his current skating and what if he improves even more? Not to mention he's a big kid.

I really like Demers ability to pass and play tough. I think he will get comfortable and be a great TWD. He has shown the ability to make great defensive plays... he just needs to be consistent and have a coach who won't destroy his development by playing him on the wrong side, or with Colin ****ing White.

I like them both and think if either one gets traded it will be a massive mistake.

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08-29-2012, 01:18 PM
  #413
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Originally Posted by Hatrick Marleau View Post
Playing with Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau and getting #1PP time. Pavelski doesn't have the offensive skill to put up close to a PPG. I think Pavelski is a little overrated.



Braun is overrated by many on here. He didn't even have that good of a season last year. He hasn't shown me much. Not having Demers in the WCF two years ago hurt us. You could argue that he was our best or 2nd best defenseman that playoff run.
Marleau doesn't improve his linemates points totals. Ask Owen Nolan.
Pavs would have scored just as many, if not more playing with Clowe and Couture... or whoever.

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08-29-2012, 01:29 PM
  #414
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Marleau doesn't improve his linemates points totals. Ask Owen Nolan.
Pavs would have scored just as many, if not more playing with Clowe and Couture... or whoever.
no but the puck controller on that line does, and his name isn't marleau.

you are just kidding yourself if you think pavs could put up 60+ points with couture and clowe.

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08-29-2012, 01:54 PM
  #415
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no but the puck controller on that line does, and his name isn't marleau.

you are just kidding yourself if you think pavs could put up 60+ points with couture and clowe.
He basically did it with a revolving group of Wellwood, Mitchell, Clowe, Healtey, etc...

He is going to pretty much put up 60 points no matter what line he is on.

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08-29-2012, 02:24 PM
  #416
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you are just kidding yourself if you think pavs could put up 60+ points with couture and clowe.
Of course he can.

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08-29-2012, 02:25 PM
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He basically did it with a revolving group of Wellwood, Mitchell, Clowe, Healtey, etc...

He is going to pretty much put up 60 points no matter what line he is on.
This.

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08-29-2012, 02:33 PM
  #418
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Originally Posted by Hatrick Marleau View Post
Playing with Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau and getting #1PP time. Pavelski doesn't have the offensive skill to put up close to a PPG.
66 points in 74 games is pretty close to PPG. That's with a variety of linemates and injuries.

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08-29-2012, 02:44 PM
  #419
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He basically did it with a revolving group of Wellwood, Mitchell, Clowe, Healtey, etc...
How many points came from PP though? Actually wondering.

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08-29-2012, 02:47 PM
  #420
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Originally Posted by hockeyball View Post
He basically did it with a revolving group of Wellwood, Mitchell, Clowe, Healtey, etc...

He is going to pretty much put up 60 points no matter what line he is on.
he did it with 28 points on the power play, playing with thornton, heatley, marleau, boyle.

he put up 28 points on the 2nd best power play in the league.

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08-29-2012, 02:57 PM
  #421
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To be fair though, this year Pavs put up 61 points with only 18 PP points.

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08-29-2012, 02:58 PM
  #422
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he did it with 28 points on the power play, playing with thornton, heatley, marleau, boyle.

he put up 28 points on the 2nd best power play in the league.
...and would have still done so playing with Clowe and Couture as his linemates.

He is great on the power play and would get those points no matter what his regular linemates are.

Face it, your argument is pretty weak. Pavs would most likely be over 60 points without Marleau or Thornton. That line wasn't the epitome of cohesive anyway.. and he was pretty banged up.

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08-29-2012, 02:58 PM
  #423
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He put ~40 points playing with nobodies the year before and a little over 40 points with Marleau and Thornton. That's pretty consistent.

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08-29-2012, 03:30 PM
  #424
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you are just kidding yourself if you think pavs could put up 60+ points with couture and clowe.
He put up 59 points in 08-09 with a mixture Michalek (Couture is better), Clowe (he was worse back then), and Cheechoo.

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08-29-2012, 03:45 PM
  #425
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66 points in 74 games is pretty close to PPG. That's with a variety of linemates and injuries.
And was sheltered that year. When he is on 3rd line he was going up against other teams bottom lines, but when that line was matched up against the Detroit 3rd line and the Nuck's 3rd line, it stunk. I would say it was our worst line those two series. He still had almost half his points come off the Powerplay that year.

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