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Off-season Armchair GM Thread Part IX

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Old
08-29-2012, 06:23 PM
  #451
WTFetus
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hatrick Marleau View Post
In their 2nd full season they both were playing in the top 6. That is why I used that since it was a better comparison of the two.
Couture didn't play in the Top-6 until Pavelski got injured (and even in the Top-6, he played with Clowe and a mix of fill-ins). And again, Michalek still had better line-mates.

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08-29-2012, 06:37 PM
  #452
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Originally Posted by WTFetus View Post
Again, if anything, you're underrating Braun. Saying Demers is going to be a #3 and Braun is going to be at best a #4 at this point in their careers is just ridiculous. Your logic is pretty terrible. Braun had a good season, but that doesn't count because he has to prove he can do it again. Demers had a bad season, but that doesn't count because he had a good season earlier? Way to show your bias.
And for the record, since when does saying Couture > Michalek mean that he's going to be a Top 10 C? And by the numbers, Pavelski was a great first line winger last season. 60+ points with Selke level defense.
Jason Demers
*
GP G A Pts +/- PIM Hits
*51 4 17 21 5 21 42
*75 2 22 24 19 28 87
*57 4 9 13 -8 22 60
183 10 48 58 16 71 189->career stats

Demers has shown me top 3 potential. He had a down season last year, but I expect him to rebound.

Justin Braun

*GP G A Pts +/- PIM Hits
*28 2 9 11 -1 2 27
*66 2 9 11 -2 23 46*
94 4 18 22 -3 25 73->career stats

Braun doesn't look like anything special. Hasn't shown me anything that says he will be better than a #4, which isn't bad. I expect Braun to get better next year.

Of course saying Couture>Michalek doesn't mean he is going to become a top 10 center. HB and others think that Couture is going to be very good 1st line center. We can only speculate. Couture has to show us what he will be. 61pts isn't great 1st line center to me.

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08-29-2012, 06:46 PM
  #453
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WTFetus View Post
Couture didn't play in the Top-6 until Pavelski got injured (and even in the Top-6, he played with Clowe and a mix of fill-ins). And again, Michalek still had better line-mates.
Last year was Couture's 2nd full season. He was in the top 6 the whole year.

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08-29-2012, 06:50 PM
  #454
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hatrick Marleau View Post
Jason Demers
*
GP G A Pts +/- PIM Hits
*51 4 17 21 5 21 42
*75 2 22 24 19 28 87
*57 4 9 13 -8 22 60
183 10 48 58 16 71 189->career stats

Demers has shown me top 3 potential. He had a down season last year, but I expect him to rebound.

Justin Braun

*GP G A Pts +/- PIM Hits
*28 2 9 11 -1 2 27
*66 2 9 11 -2 23 46*
94 4 18 22 -3 25 73->career stats

Braun doesn't look like anything special. Hasn't shown me anything that says he will be better than a #4, which isn't bad. I expect Braun to get better next year.
That's why I'm talking about bias. In your opinion, Demers will rebound, yet Braun has no chance to improve. Both have the potential to be great 2nd pairing defenseman, I don't know how you can say one does and one doesn't at this point in their careers. Braun has just as much of a chance to "rebound" as Demers does. Just like Demers has just as much of a chance to flop as Braun does.
Not to mention stats don't show everything. Demers had a significantly more power-play time in 09-10 and 10-11 than Braun did in 11-12. And that's not because the coaches trusted him more, it's because he had less competition. An aging, injured Blake and Boyle in the first year. Just Boyle in the second year.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hatrick Marleau View Post
We can only speculate. Couture has to show us what he will be. 61pts isn't great 1st line center to me.
No one is saying he's a 1st line center now, so his point totals now are completely irrelevant.

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08-29-2012, 07:19 PM
  #455
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I leave for two days and everything goes to ****.

1. I absolutely love Milan Michalek and I adore him and he was one of my favorite Sharks. I'm not particularly high on Couture. And yet I would not trade Couture for Milan straight up. That would be stupid.

2. Demers has higher upside, but Braun is currently the better player. Braun will top out at #4 two-way D level, if he hits his potential, Demers has #3 offensive D potential but is a bit less likely to hit it. As of right now, they are both solid bottom-pairing defensemen who compliment each other well and drive possession in relatively sheltered minutes for cheap monies, and in case of an injury to one of the top-4/regression of Stuart, I would not be afraid to pair either of them with Boyle to play 2nd pair. That's what they are right now and I don't see why we're arguing about it. Neither should be traded.

3. What in the world is HM's problem with Pavelski. Of course he's better than Jordan Eberle. In fact, I would be willing to bet you right now that Pavelski will outscore Eberle by 10 points next season. Eberle is the product of lucky percentages and butter-soft minutes and tons of PP time with highly talented linemates.

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08-29-2012, 07:48 PM
  #456
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Originally Posted by TheJuxtaposer View Post
I leave for two days and everything goes to ****.

1. I absolutely love Milan Michalek and I adore him and he was one of my favorite Sharks. I'm not particularly high on Couture. And yet I would not trade Couture for Milan straight up. That would be stupid.

2. Demers has higher upside, but Braun is currently the better player. Braun will top out at #4 two-way D level, if he hits his potential, Demers has #3 offensive D potential but is a bit less likely to hit it. As of right now, they are both solid bottom-pairing defensemen who compliment each other well and drive possession in relatively sheltered minutes for cheap monies, and in case of an injury to one of the top-4/regression of Stuart, I would not be afraid to pair either of them with Boyle to play 2nd pair. That's what they are right now and I don't see why we're arguing about it. Neither should be traded.

3. What in the world is HM's problem with Pavelski. Of course he's better than Jordan Eberle. In fact, I would be willing to bet you right now that Pavelski will outscore Eberle by 10 points next season. Eberle is the product of lucky percentages and butter-soft minutes and tons of PP time with highly talented linemates.
It is funny how all this stemmed from Feeding Frenzy's Gunnarson for Demers proposal. He was saying that if some player has played more games than another player then the player with more games should be better. I was using Eberle>Pavelski as of an example when that isn't true. I should've used someone else because that one started a riot. I should of changed Eberle to Seguin or Stamkos.

I wouldn't trade Couture straight up for Michalek either. I bet he would have been a better player if Torres didn't cheap shot him.

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08-29-2012, 10:39 PM
  #457
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Originally Posted by WTFetus View Post
No one is saying he's a 1st line center now, so his point totals now are completely irrelevant.
Those point totals were Pavelski's. I meant to say that 61pts isn't a great 1st line RW to me.

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08-29-2012, 11:06 PM
  #458
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Originally Posted by Hatrick Marleau View Post
Yeah, Michalek had a breakout season in 2006-2007, but then Raffi Torres ruined him that year the playoffs. I would take Couture right now over Michalek because of his injury history.
I think you mean 05-06. The Sharks faced the Preds and Red Wings in the 07 playoffs, remember?

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08-30-2012, 12:01 AM
  #459
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hatrick Marleau View Post
Those point totals were Pavelski's. I meant to say that 61pts isn't a great 1st line RW to me.
You're not getting the whole picture if you're only worried about point totals from your top players. Pavs' point totals are solid for a 1st line winger. His defensive play is what solidifies him as a legitimate first line player. 30 goals and being one of the top two or three defensive forwards in this league is definitely 1st line caliber since he did it on the team's first line.

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08-30-2012, 12:42 AM
  #460
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hatrick Marleau View Post
It is funny how all this stemmed from Feeding Frenzy's Gunnarson for Demers proposal. He was saying that if some player has played more games than another player then the player with more games should be better. I was using Eberle>Pavelski as of an example when that isn't true. I should've used someone else because that one started a riot. I should of changed Eberle to Seguin or Stamkos.

I wouldn't trade Couture straight up for Michalek either. I bet he would have been a better player if Torres didn't cheap shot him.
Go read it again HM... Never said that...Dont throw me in the noose with you...

My point still remains: Those who say Demers has a higher offensive ceiling are just wrong..You cant compare Demers and Brauns limited NHL action against each other..But you can compare their AHL/QM/UMass stats..And the stats says Braun produced .63ppg in college/AHL. Demers#'s at the Q/AHL puts him at .63ppg. Demers played 103 games in the AHL, Braun 44. Point being Braun is progressing faster than Demers. Braun's offensive upside is at worse equal to that of Demers.

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08-30-2012, 12:55 AM
  #461
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Swervin81 View Post
I think you mean 05-06. The Sharks faced the Preds and Red Wings in the 07 playoffs, remember?
No, the Sharks played the Oilers in the 06-07 playoffs. The Sharks were up 2-0 on the Oil then Torres took Michalek out, which changed the series and Michalek's career.



EDIT:I'm wrong it was the 05-06 year.


Last edited by Hatrick Marleau: 08-30-2012 at 01:09 AM.
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08-30-2012, 01:01 AM
  #462
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FeedingFrenzy View Post
Go read it again HM... Never said that...Dont throw me in the noose with you...
Quote:
Originally Posted by FeedingFrenzy View Post
Demers has twice as many NHL games under his belt so in theory he should be better off..Braun has all the tools and then some.Heck, Demers spent 2 full season at the AHL level compared to Brauns measly 43games.
There you go.

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08-30-2012, 01:02 AM
  #463
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Originally Posted by Hatrick Marleau View Post
No, the Sharks played the Oilers in the 06-07 playoffs. The Sharks were up 2-0 on the Oil then Torres took Michalek out, which changed the series and Michalek's career.
Just like PP TOI/G, this isn't that hard to look up.
Swervin is right, it was the 2006 playoffs.

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08-30-2012, 01:16 AM
  #464
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Originally Posted by WTFetus View Post
Just like PP TOI/G, this isn't that hard to look up.
Swervin is right, it was the 2006 playoffs.
Yeah, I looked it up right after.


Last edited by Hatrick Marleau: 08-30-2012 at 01:24 AM.
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08-30-2012, 04:33 AM
  #465
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Braun currently is developing faster than some expected and that is great, but I think people keep forgetting that Braun is over a year older than Demers. Heck, Vlasic is younger than Braun. Demers had an earlier spurt in development and was able to land more NHL games due to weaker roster competition.

To say Braun has more potential than Demers is baseless. I think people see Demers' last season as a trend instead of an anomaly and don't realize how badly a high ankle sprain can ruin a player's offseason. Combine that with a struggling Colin White as a partner and being scratched at random points throughout the season, and it's not wonder why he did so poorly. Instead of being short-sighted, we should wait until next season to make a judgment.


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08-30-2012, 11:19 AM
  #466
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So I have no freaking clue what I'm talking about, but is it crazy to assume Demers, Braun or both will have drastically improved years playing under Larry Robinson?

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08-30-2012, 11:35 AM
  #467
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Anyone read this? http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=404044

What would SJ do if the cap was 58million.

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08-30-2012, 12:01 PM
  #468
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Originally Posted by sjshark91 View Post
Anyone read this? http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=404044

What would SJ do if the cap was 58million.

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08-30-2012, 12:06 PM
  #469
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Originally Posted by sjshark91 View Post
Anyone read this? http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=404044

What would SJ do if the cap was 58million.
Providing there isn't a salary rollback...

Boyle and Handzus gone, McCarthy/McLaren as full-timers?

Yikes.

CAPGEEK.COM USER GENERATED ROSTER
My Custom Lineup
FORWARDS
Patrick Marleau ($6.900m) / Joe Thornton ($7.000m) / Joe Pavelski ($4.000m)
Ryane Clowe ($3.625m) / Logan Couture ($2.875m) / Martin Havlat ($5.000m)
T.J. Galiardi ($0.950m) / Andrew Desjardins ($0.640m) / Tommy Wingels ($0.775m)
Frazer McLaren ($0.633m) / John McCarthy ($0.613m) / Adam Burish ($1.850m)
DEFENSEMEN
Marc-Edouard Vlasic ($3.100m) / Brent Burns ($5.760m)
Brad Stuart ($3.600m) / Jason Demers ($1.250m)
Douglas Murray ($2.500m) / Justin Braun ($1.250m)
GOALTENDERS
Antti Niemi ($3.800m)
Thomas Greiss ($0.588m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $70,200,000; CAP PAYROLL: $56,707,500; BONUSES: $0
CAP SPACE (20-man roster): $13,492,500

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08-30-2012, 01:28 PM
  #470
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You dump Clowe and Murray before you dump Boyle.

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08-30-2012, 01:32 PM
  #471
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sjshark91 View Post
Anyone read this? http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=404044

What would SJ do if the cap was 58million.
If the cap goes to $58mil, they will be making allowances for the way salaries are used to calculate the cap. They won't be rolling back the numbers on contracts but my guess is that they intend to take a % of the cap value (like 85%) for calculating the cap hit for the upcoming season. The players will be paying huge escrow to accommodate the issue as well.

The message is that if the cap goes to $58mil, it is inappropriate to use current contract cap hits to figure the Sharks versus the cap. The reason is that there are several teams that would be far more up against the wall than the Sharks on getting under the cap.

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08-30-2012, 01:40 PM
  #472
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sjshark91 View Post
Anyone read this? http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=404044

What would SJ do if the cap was 58million.
Step 1: Trade Murray for a 2nd rounder
Step 2: Either buyout Handzus or if you can dump him for a 7th, do that
Step 3: Trade Clowe for picks/prospects

That saves you (with Handzus buyout) about 8M (a bit less)...not the ideal method, but it works. :|

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08-30-2012, 01:54 PM
  #473
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigDmitriy View Post
Step 1: Trade Murray for a 2nd rounder
Step 2: Either buyout Handzus or if you can dump him for a 7th, do that
Step 3: Trade Clowe for picks/prospects

That saves you (with Handzus buyout) about 8M (a bit less)...not the ideal method, but it works. :|
Then the question is who replaces those 3 and how does that cost.

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08-30-2012, 02:20 PM
  #474
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigDmitriy View Post
Step 1: Trade Murray for a 2nd rounder
Step 2: Either buyout Handzus or if you can dump him for a 7th, do that
Step 3: Trade Clowe for picks/prospects

That saves you (with Handzus buyout) about 8M (a bit less)...not the ideal method, but it works. :|
Assuming you make Murray, Handzus and Clowe disappear without taking salary back, and assuming the cap isn't calculated on a smaller percentage of individual cap hits, your roster looks like this:

CAPGEEK.COM USER GENERATED ROSTER
My Custom Lineup
FORWARDS
Patrick Marleau ($6.900m) / Joe Thornton ($7.000m) / T.J. Galiardi ($0.950m)
Logan Couture ($2.875m) / Joe Pavelski ($4.000m) / Martin Havlat ($5.000m)
Tommy Wingels ($0.775m) / John McCarthy ($0.613m) / Adam Burish ($1.850m)
Frazer McLaren ($0.633m) / Andrew Desjardins ($0.640m) / Brandon Mashinter ($0.550m)
DEFENSEMEN
Dan Boyle ($6.667m) / Brent Burns ($5.760m)
Brad Stuart ($3.600m) / Marc-Edouard Vlasic ($3.100m)
Justin Braun ($1.250m) / Jason Demers ($1.250m)
GOALTENDERS
Antti Niemi ($3.800m)
Thomas Greiss ($0.588m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $70,200,000; CAP PAYROLL: $57,799,167; BONUSES: $0
CAP SPACE (20-man roster): $12,400,833

That bottom six is hilariously bad. I think I prefer losing Boyle and rolling with that other roster.

If we ice McLaren, McCarthy and Mashinter at the same time, expect to lose many, many games. Plus, if we injure a top-6 at any point, then we're completely screwed.

Anyways, there's no way DW would see this as acceptable so we shouldn't fear anything like this. But what else are we supposed to do in August?

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08-30-2012, 02:53 PM
  #475
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RammsteinGT View Post
Assuming you make Murray, Handzus and Clowe disappear without taking salary back, and assuming the cap isn't calculated on a smaller percentage of individual cap hits, your roster looks like this:

CAPGEEK.COM USER GENERATED ROSTER
My Custom Lineup
FORWARDS
Patrick Marleau ($6.900m) / Joe Thornton ($7.000m) / T.J. Galiardi ($0.950m)
Logan Couture ($2.875m) / Joe Pavelski ($4.000m) / Martin Havlat ($5.000m)
Tommy Wingels ($0.775m) / John McCarthy ($0.613m) / Adam Burish ($1.850m)
Frazer McLaren ($0.633m) / Andrew Desjardins ($0.640m) / Brandon Mashinter ($0.550m)
DEFENSEMEN
Dan Boyle ($6.667m) / Brent Burns ($5.760m)
Brad Stuart ($3.600m) / Marc-Edouard Vlasic ($3.100m)
Justin Braun ($1.250m) / Jason Demers ($1.250m)
GOALTENDERS
Antti Niemi ($3.800m)
Thomas Greiss ($0.588m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $70,200,000; CAP PAYROLL: $57,799,167; BONUSES: $0
CAP SPACE (20-man roster): $12,400,833

That bottom six is hilariously bad. I think I prefer losing Boyle and rolling with that other roster.

If we ice McLaren, McCarthy and Mashinter at the same time, expect to lose many, many games. Plus, if we injure a top-6 at any point, then we're completely screwed.

Anyways, there's no way DW would see this as acceptable so we shouldn't fear anything like this. But what else are we supposed to do in August?
What Easy said is probably close to the case. They are not going to drop the cap without some kind of way to adjust that for teams over the cap already. They've already mentioned somedthing to do with the players escrow accounts. The Sharks may not need to shed any payroll at all realistically.

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