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Luongo Thread - Scorcher 6: Global Meltdown (Mod Warning Post # 694)

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Old
09-19-2012, 08:50 AM
  #751
Beezeral
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
So now the goal posts have shifted from "he could get hurt, there's a chance his trade value plummets as a result" to "he's not going to garner an elite prospect".


You certainly aren't doing yourself any favours here Beezeral. Probably best to limit the argument to your original premise... Lest the "gun shy" Canuck fans start to wonder what you are actually trying to convey here. (I have a feeling, but I'll let you get there first before questioning you on intent).

My intent or point has not changed. Waiting to deal luongo is not a fool proof strategy. It has it's flaws. I don't blame the canucks for doing it at all, I'm sure gillis is well aware of the the risks.

You aren't doing yourself any favors by burying your head in the sand anytime someone says something that does not agree with your perfect luongo scenario.

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09-19-2012, 09:13 AM
  #752
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beezeral View Post
My intent or point has not changed. Waiting to deal luongo is not a fool proof strategy. It has it's flaws. I don't blame the canucks for doing it at all, I'm sure gillis is well aware of the the risks.

You aren't doing yourself any favors by burying your head in the sand anytime someone says something that does not agree with your perfect luongo scenario.
No one is disagreeing with this nor has anyone described this as our "fool proof strategy." All we have said is due to the present offers, this is our best option. Ideally, one of the teams blinks before the season starts and either Schneider or Luongo is moved for actual solid value, or even just reasonable in Lu's case. When Leaf fans explode any just including Kadri in half the deals. There is no reason to ship them Lu for Lombardi+

On a different note. I swear, I am going to hate Lombardi just because of that main board.

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09-19-2012, 09:32 AM
  #753
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Originally Posted by Beezeral View Post
My intent or point has not changed. Waiting to deal luongo is not a fool proof strategy. It has it's flaws. I don't blame the canucks for doing it at all, I'm sure gillis is well aware of the the risks.

You aren't doing yourself any favors by burying your head in the sand anytime someone says something that does not agree with your perfect luongo scenario.
Of course it's not fool proof. But the absolute worst case scenario here is that we end up with nothing (waivers of Europe) instead of a marginal return. And that's with the sky falling on Luongo's head.

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09-19-2012, 09:35 AM
  #754
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Originally Posted by Bourne Endeavor View Post
On a different note. I swear, I am going to hate Lombardi just because of that main board.
I know its funny, I don't usually cheer against teams but I will literally be cheering against FLA and TOR when the season starts after this whole Luongo thing. I literally hope their goalies put up 0.890 save% for the season.

I have at this point determined that for me, Luongo's "value in use" is equivalent to:
From Toronto - Colborne + Ashton + 1st (top 10 protected) for Luongo
From Florida - Petrovic + Howden + 1st for Luongo + Raymond / Bjustad + 1st

If something like these aren't offered I'd rather see us hang on to Luongo to ensure we have elite goaltending this year.

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09-19-2012, 09:39 AM
  #755
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Originally Posted by Bourne Endeavor View Post
No one is disagreeing with this nor has anyone described this as our "fool proof strategy." All we have said is due to the present offers, this is our best option. Ideally, one of the teams blinks before the season starts and either Schneider or Luongo is moved for actual solid value, or even just reasonable in Lu's case. When Leaf fans explode any just including Kadri in half the deals. There is no reason to ship them Lu for Lombardi+

On a different note. I swear, I am going to hate Lombardi just because of that main board.
Quote:
Originally Posted by wholesickcrew View Post
Of course it's not fool proof. But the absolute worst case scenario here is that we end up with nothing (waivers of Europe) instead of a marginal return. And that's with the sky falling on Luongo's head.
This wasn't the response on the previous page. Thank you for a rationale response.

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09-19-2012, 09:57 AM
  #756
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Originally Posted by DJOpus View Post
I know its funny, I don't usually cheer against teams but I will literally be cheering against FLA and TOR when the season starts after this whole Luongo thing. I literally hope their goalies put up 0.890 save% for the season.

I have at this point determined that for me, Luongo's "value in use" is equivalent to:
From Toronto - Colborne + Ashton + 1st (top 10 protected) for Luongo
From Florida - Petrovic + Howden + 1st for Luongo + Raymond / Bjustad + 1st

If something like these aren't offered I'd rather see us hang on to Luongo to ensure we have elite goaltending this year.

Both Petrovic and Howden are better than both Ashton and Colborne.(and the difference isn't Mason Raymond)

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09-19-2012, 11:08 AM
  #757
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Originally Posted by DJOpus View Post
I know its funny, I don't usually cheer against teams but I will literally be cheering against FLA and TOR when the season starts after this whole Luongo thing. I literally hope their goalies put up 0.890 save% for the season.

I have at this point determined that for me, Luongo's "value in use" is equivalent to:
From Toronto - Colborne + Ashton + 1st (top 10 protected) for Luongo
From Florida - Petrovic + Howden + 1st for Luongo + Raymond / Bjustad + 1st

If something like these aren't offered I'd rather see us hang on to Luongo to ensure we have elite goaltending this year.
Toronto also has to pay an "Olive Branch Tax" above similar offers elsewhere... Completely similar offers, tie goes to other Eastern team...

For extending an olive branch, for lowering the bucket so Burke can be lifted out of the "Well of Dispair" and save his himself from drowing in his job... It will cost a bit more... and how do you put a pricetag on friendship? For me, if I'm Burke, given the situation and need of help, Gillis' friendship is worth an additional 2nd or 3rd rounder above the best deal elsewhere...

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09-19-2012, 11:14 AM
  #758
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Originally Posted by DJOpus View Post
I know its funny, I don't usually cheer against teams but I will literally be cheering against FLA and TOR when the season starts after this whole Luongo thing. I literally hope their goalies put up 0.890 save% for the season.

I have at this point determined that for me, Luongo's "value in use" is equivalent to:
From Toronto - Colborne + Ashton + 1st (top 10 protected) for Luongo
From Florida - Petrovic + Howden + 1st for Luongo + Raymond / Bjustad + 1st

If something like these aren't offered I'd rather see us hang on to Luongo to ensure we have elite goaltending this year.
Ha, I was thinking the same myself. Usually I want to see Toronto do well to a point just to rekindle some of the rivalries and because they have suffered enough. However, it has become increasingly difficult since the Luongo fiasco started. Only a few Leaf fans have not tried to rip us off.

Personally, I would be content with Kadri, MacArthur and a 2nd (preferably a 1st obviously) from Toronto.

Kadri is a much better prospect, who could step on the third line and provide some offensive skill to compliment Higgins. Not to mention we get to see a brief trial period of his performance if he fills in for Kesler.

MacArthur is the insurance we have something impacting the roster. Overall he is inferior to Higgins, but tends to be better offensive, thus he could work with Kesler or let us keep Higgins on the second line and slot MacArthur on the third.

A pick, is a pick.

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Old
09-19-2012, 11:45 AM
  #759
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Originally Posted by Beezeral View Post
This wasn't the response on the previous page. Thank you for a rationale response.
are you referring to my response? If so, it seems like you're having a problem with reading comprehension?

This is what I said in that post:

Quote:
Originally Posted by NFITO View Post
While there's a chance that his value doesn't improve (or even regresses), given the marginal return right now, taking that risk is the obvious choice. Worst case scenario and the Panthers, Leafs, Caps, Devils, Hawks, Lightning, Sens, Sharks, Flyers Jackets, etc, could *all* have their goaltending question marks addressed and none of them may need a starter... in that case, the Canucks basically lose out in the marginal returns being offered now - a salary dump and an okay prospect. But if even one of those teams gets desperate as their goaltending doesn't work out as they had hoped, Luongo's value could go up.

Given the number of possibilities that all have to work out to hurt his value from where it is right now (which already isn't very good), I think it's a no-brainer to wait it out.
Did I ever indicate that it's a fool-proof strategy to wait? I said - and in no uncertain terms - that by waiting his value could also not improve and even go down. Did I say that in a way that was too difficult to understand?

Of course his value could go down... but again, why worry about that when the return isn't good enough right now? Even if it goes down to nothing - ie. waiver loss - it's still better than less than nothing (taking on a cap dump you don't need that ties up any remaining cap space that trading Luongo may provide).

Again, no one is saying that waiting to deal him means you automatically get a better deal... I'm just suggesting that there's no harm in waiting to trade him because the offers just aren't good enough now, so even if you lose those offers, it just isn't a big deal.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Beezeral View Post
Please quote me where I said the Canucks made a bad decision. Here is a hint, I didn't. All I said is that there is a CHANCE that it all blows up in vancouvers face if they hold on to him. I never said anything will happen. I never said that luongo's value will go down. I never said that it is 100% certain that markstrom will be an all star caliber goalie.

I know you guys are a bit gun shy from posters coming over here and acting like an idiot, but you are putting worlds in my mouth and twisting my posts to make it seem like I am saying that by holding onto luongo to start the season is a terrible decision.
not quite sure what you read in my post that gave this response??

Where did I say that you said the Canucks made a bad decision? I know you said there's a CHANCE that it blows up in their face - my response was all about that CHANCE. I agree there's a CHANCE. But again, given the crap offers we're getting right now, why worry about that chance? I know you didn't say that anything would happen for sure - where did you even get that in my post? And I know you never said that it's 100% certain that Markstrom will be all-star goalie... I just found it odd how you basically said that Luongo's value would go down to Florida the more games he plays because that means that Markstrom has shown more capable of being an NHLer, while in Toronto's situation there's a CHANCE that their goalies don't work out which could increase Luongo's value to them. Why didn't you discuss this same scenario with Florida? There is a CHANCE that Markstrom doesn't work out, isn't there? I know you didn't guarantee anything, but I just found it conveniently ignored that the same situation you suggested could happen in Toronto or Washington could also happen in Florida, thus increasing Luongo's value to Florida - and it could also happen to a number of other teams - like Chicago, TBay, Ottawa, and a slew of others.

Again, when there are that many team that don't have sure-things to bank on, it's very likely that at least one of them doesn't have their projections falls as they want, and thus increases Luongo's value to them.

I'm not putting words in your mouth, and not twisting your words at all... I'm not saying at all that you said that holding on to Luongo at the start of the season is a terrible decision. I'm not even sure where you could possibly read that in my post.

I know what you're saying - that there's a chance that holding on to him won't improve his value, and could even hurt it. WE ALL AGREE WITH THAT HERE!!!! But, when his value seems so marginal right now, why not wait? And we also can see so clearly that there are so many question marks all around the league when it comes to teams' goaltending situation, that waiting now, WHEN THE RETURN SEEMS SO MARGINAL, is just the smart thing to do.

This isn't twisting your words or putting words in your mouth, or whatever.... hard to believe you even read my post before quoting it??

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09-19-2012, 11:53 AM
  #760
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lol - at "chances"....it just reminds me of this:



Let's try and stick to reality folks....

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09-19-2012, 12:06 PM
  #761
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There's a chance that Luongo falls into a ditch while walking today.

I guess we shouldn't have held onto him!

This is what I feel like we're arguing about. Events that are so statistically infrequent that they are not usually taken into account.

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09-19-2012, 12:29 PM
  #762
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There's a chance that Luongo falls into a ditch while walking today.

I guess we shouldn't have held onto him!

This is what I feel like we're arguing about. Events that are so statistically infrequent that they are not usually taken into account.
To make a long story short...

We know there is some (not big) risks involved in keeping Luongo and we're fine with it...

To make a short story long...

I think what is being argued, what has been argued from the start, is that many outsiders (and some Canuck fans too) think that Luongo needs to be traded ASAP... and Gillis needs to accept the best of the bad returns he can get, because of it... The reasons always change, but the underlying premise is the same...

Eventually, when it gets realized that Gillis doesn't need to... The only thing left is that Gillis should or else bad things might happen... It doesn't make much sense now though... Because if there are no operational reasons to do it, and everyone is ok with it, why accept an underwhelming return? The bad things predicted to happen are either not likely to happen, or if they happen, the problem can be solved later... There is no need to solve a problem that doesn't exist...

This is going to prove to be more difficult, getting Luongo, then those who are interested in getting Luongo might think (unless they are willing to pay a lot)... It's already probably taken much longer than originally expected... Just look at the most vocal post histories the last few months - of those who feel Luongo needs off the team ASAP (practically every prediction wrong... and what thought would happen, opposite happens)... Now, the new prediction is after the CBA is negotiated, Gillis will accept a "best he can get" return then... Unless the NHL is intent on screwing all top teams, there is no way the new CBA is going to prevent the Canucks (and other top teams) from keeping their current talent together (as it falls within the current cap)... If it does, there are probably ways to get under without even touching Luongo... As an example, I like Ballard and don't mind Alberts, but I'd let go of Ballard and Alberts before Luongo, if needed...

The end result of this is that Luongo will bring a nice return that Gillis wants, or Luongo won't be traded anytime soon... If Luongo brings a "best he can get" return, it's at the very least going to be very uncomfortable and frustrating for the other "winning" team... It's just not going to be quick and easy to do - and the other team could just as easily lose getting Luongo, then win getting Luongo... The bad gamble is on their side, IMHO, because Luongo could be off this team tonight, and the Canucks are still a top team... Luongo helps their team, much more than Luongo helps the Canucks... Yet, at the same time, Luongo could greatly help the Canucks - which goes to show the type of impact this player can have... and how silly it is to offer marginal value - especially when a team can afford to pay more value, but offering marginal value for whatever reason...

Unless another team is willing to offer a real nice return, Luongo gets traded later rather than sooner... If other teams are willing to gamble that, great... In the meantime, Luongo can help the Canucks (hopefully) win a cup...

If another team is able to get Luongo cheap, at the very least, it's going to cost them a lot of frustration, and a gamble if a top 5 goalie will be on their team or not... Gillis isn't doing his job if getting a Luongo for cheap is easy...


Last edited by I in the Eye: 09-19-2012 at 01:48 PM.
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09-19-2012, 12:43 PM
  #763
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Originally Posted by NFITO View Post
are you referring to my response? If so, it seems like you're having a problem with reading comprehension?

This is what I said in that post:



Did I ever indicate that it's a fool-proof strategy to wait? I said - and in no uncertain terms - that by waiting his value could also not improve and even go down. Did I say that in a way that was too difficult to understand?

Of course his value could go down... but again, why worry about that when the return isn't good enough right now? Even if it goes down to nothing - ie. waiver loss - it's still better than less than nothing (taking on a cap dump you don't need that ties up any remaining cap space that trading Luongo may provide).

Again, no one is saying that waiting to deal him means you automatically get a better deal... I'm just suggesting that there's no harm in waiting to trade him because the offers just aren't good enough now, so even if you lose those offers, it just isn't a big deal.





not quite sure what you read in my post that gave this response??

Where did I say that you said the Canucks made a bad decision? I know you said there's a CHANCE that it blows up in their face - my response was all about that CHANCE. I agree there's a CHANCE. But again, given the crap offers we're getting right now, why worry about that chance? I know you didn't say that anything would happen for sure - where did you even get that in my post? And I know you never said that it's 100% certain that Markstrom will be all-star goalie... I just found it odd how you basically said that Luongo's value would go down to Florida the more games he plays because that means that Markstrom has shown more capable of being an NHLer, while in Toronto's situation there's a CHANCE that their goalies don't work out which could increase Luongo's value to them. Why didn't you discuss this same scenario with Florida? There is a CHANCE that Markstrom doesn't work out, isn't there? I know you didn't guarantee anything, but I just found it conveniently ignored that the same situation you suggested could happen in Toronto or Washington could also happen in Florida, thus increasing Luongo's value to Florida - and it could also happen to a number of other teams - like Chicago, TBay, Ottawa, and a slew of others.

Again, when there are that many team that don't have sure-things to bank on, it's very likely that at least one of them doesn't have their projections falls as they want, and thus increases Luongo's value to them.

I'm not putting words in your mouth, and not twisting your words at all... I'm not saying at all that you said that holding on to Luongo at the start of the season is a terrible decision. I'm not even sure where you could possibly read that in my post.

I know what you're saying - that there's a chance that holding on to him won't improve his value, and could even hurt it. WE ALL AGREE WITH THAT HERE!!!! But, when his value seems so marginal right now, why not wait? And we also can see so clearly that there are so many question marks all around the league when it comes to teams' goaltending situation, that waiting now, WHEN THE RETURN SEEMS SO MARGINAL, is just the smart thing to do.

This isn't twisting your words or putting words in your mouth, or whatever.... hard to believe you even read my post before quoting it??
I'll be honest. I read the first paragraph (which you conveniently forgot to quote just now) got frustrated and responded. The rest of your post was spot on, so my apologies.

Seems like we are in agreement now. Holding on to luongo will almost certainly result in a marginal (b+ prospect instead of B) increase or decrease in value.

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09-19-2012, 12:59 PM
  #764
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Originally Posted by I in the Eye View Post
I think what is being argued, what has been argued from the start, is that many outsiders (and some Canuck fans too) think that Luongo needs to be traded ASAP... and Gillis needs to accept the best of the bad returns he can get, because of it... The reasons always change, but the underlying premise is the same...

I like this guy


Last edited by Beezeral: 09-19-2012 at 01:20 PM.
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09-19-2012, 01:02 PM
  #765
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Quote:
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Quote:
Originally Posted by I in the Eye View Post
I think what is being argued, what has been argued from the start, is that many outsiders (and some Canuck fans too) think that Luongo needs to be traded ASAP... and Gillis needs to accept the best of the bad returns he can get, because of it... The reasons always change, but the underlying premise is the same...

I like this guy
Well, what he's saying is that we know there is some (not big) risks involved in keeping Luongo and we're fine with it.

I'll make sure I pray that a truck doesn't fall on him.

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09-19-2012, 01:07 PM
  #766
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Well, what he's saying is that we know there is some (not big) risks involved in keeping Luongo and we're fine with it.
Holy ****... Can I pay you to write my text messages and e-mails? That's exactly what I'm saying, in one sentence...

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09-19-2012, 01:09 PM
  #767
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Holy ****... Can I pay you to write my text messages and e-mails? That's exactly what I'm saying, in one sentence...

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09-19-2012, 01:24 PM
  #768
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Originally Posted by Taelin View Post
Well, what he's saying is that we know there is some (not big) risks involved in keeping Luongo and we're fine with it.

I'll make sure I pray that a truck doesn't fall on him.
Ill be so happy when this is all over

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09-19-2012, 01:24 PM
  #769
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Holy ****... Can I pay you to write my text messages and e-mails? That's exactly what I'm saying, in one sentence...
Sure. I'm desparately poor after paying tuition right now.

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09-19-2012, 06:52 PM
  #770
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The Penguins should trade us Malkin for Raymond before Malkin gets another knee injury and becomes less valuable. #LuongoTradeLogic
Chicago should trade us Hossa before he gets another concussion & becomes the next Marc Savard #LuongoTradeLogic





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09-19-2012, 07:39 PM
  #771
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My intent or point has not changed. Waiting to deal luongo is not a fool proof strategy. It has it's flaws. I don't blame the canucks for doing it at all, I'm sure gillis is well aware of the the
risks.

The flaws pale in comparison to the benefits. Perhaps your viewpoint will change after realizing this... ?


Quote:
You aren't doing yourself any favors by burying your head in the sand anytime someone says something that does not agree with your perfect luongo scenario.

So understanding the risks to be minimal, in comparison to the potential benefits, is akin to sticking one's head in the sand?... Riiigght.


People have heard you. Even responded in a congenial manner. NFITO in particular. Yet you've continued your unchanging argument. It doesn't bode well for you... Edit: I see you now agree with NFITO's stance.


Last edited by Bleach Clean: 09-20-2012 at 01:06 AM.
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09-19-2012, 09:17 PM
  #772
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Originally Posted by Beezeral View Post
I'll be honest. I read the first paragraph (which you conveniently forgot to quote just now) got frustrated and responded. The rest of your post was spot on, so my apologies.

Seems like we are in agreement now. Holding on to luongo will almost certainly result in a marginal (b+ prospect instead of B) increase or decrease in value.
So you got frustrated when a poster here mentioned that Markstrom might randomly re-injure his knee, or struggle in the NHL, by some small chance?

Hm. Weird. Seems to me that's what you just based your entire argument on, against Luongo for the past two pages.

Imagine why we might be frustrated?

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09-20-2012, 08:19 PM
  #773
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I know, I know, it's Botchford. But he's been the only guy with inside info re: Luongo. Been accurate thus far -

Q: @botchford you think Van Riemsdyk would interest ole Gillis? Wonder if Burkey's that desperate for Lou
A: @curtisandrews I actually don't think van would be interested

Q: @botchford so Gardiner or bust?
A: @curtisandrews I don't think it's "or bust" - they're going to get a deal done

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09-20-2012, 09:58 PM
  #774
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I know, I know, it's Botchford. But he's been the only guy with inside info re: Luongo. Been accurate thus far -

Q: @botchford you think Van Riemsdyk would interest ole Gillis? Wonder if Burkey's that desperate for Lou
A: @curtisandrews I actually don't think van would be interested

Q: @botchford so Gardiner or bust?
A: @curtisandrews I don't think it's "or bust" - they're going to get a deal done


So Botchford thinks a deal involving Lu and Gardiner is inevitable? Am I reading that right?

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09-20-2012, 10:23 PM
  #775
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
So Botchford thinks a deal involving Lu and Gardiner is inevitable? Am I reading that right?
I don't think Gardiner is the target/bait.

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