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Old
08-19-2012, 10:38 PM
  #1
DiXEN8
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Wellwood

You think he can produce the same numbers this year?
Who will he play with?

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08-19-2012, 10:42 PM
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WJG
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I think he can put up 40+ points again this year.

IMO, he'll be playing with Jokinen and Kane. Since they're both shoot-first guys, I think Wellwood will rack up a ton of primary assists.

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08-19-2012, 11:09 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WJG View Post
I think he can put up 40+ points again this year.

IMO, he'll be playing with Jokinen and Kane. Since they're both shoot-first guys, I think Wellwood will rack up a ton of primary assists.
Wouldn't Jokinen be on the 1st line?

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08-19-2012, 11:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EpicGingy View Post
Wouldn't Jokinen be on the 1st line?
It'll depend on whether they still have Kane playing sheltered minutes or not. If they still have him in the second line I could see coach keeping Ladd, Little and wheeler together and using wellwood on the 2nd. However, that being said, I could see Noel putting Kane on the top kind with joks and wheeler and placing double L with Welly.

All depends if they think Kaner is ready to crack the top line or not.

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08-20-2012, 12:18 AM
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DancesWithWookies
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He'll be on the third line

Antropov, Wellwood, Pony

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08-20-2012, 12:26 AM
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Originally Posted by GreatSaveJesus View Post
He'll be on the third line

Antropov, Wellwood, Pony
I could see this as well.

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08-20-2012, 12:43 AM
  #7
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I think the line up for our top 9 is almost surely

Kane - Jokinen - Wheeler
Ladd - Little/burmistrov - Little/Burmistrov
Poni - Antropov - Wellwood

I can't see them not using this opening night. But I don't think they'll be permenant. Noel likes to move guys lines around a lot and changing things up in search of chemistry.

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08-20-2012, 02:46 AM
  #8
Reed Solomon
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DiXEN8 View Post
You think he can produce the same numbers this year?
Impossible. Cause of the lockout

Quote:
Who will he play with?
The Jets.

Seriously I have no idea how the lineups will work out.

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08-20-2012, 02:49 AM
  #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flying High View Post
I think the line up for our top 9 is almost surely

Kane - Jokinen - Wheeler
Ladd - Little/burmistrov - Little/Burmistrov
Poni - Antropov - Wellwood

I can't see them not using this opening night. But I don't think they'll be permenant. Noel likes to move guys lines around a lot and changing things up in search of chemistry.
Not so sure... Looking at how Noel uses players he usually only changed line ups much during:
Our terrible losing streaks
Injuries
At the end where he was double shifting Wheeler a lot

I'm almost certain that the lineup will start as:
1a)Ladd-Little-Wheeler
1b)Kane-Joki-Wellwood
3)Poni-Burmi-Antro

This makes most sense with how Noel uses his lines: the first line and third line splits the tough minutes but 1st gets the OZ starts and the 3rd gets the DZ starts.
Ladd, Little, and Wheeler do well against tough minutes as strong possesion players (and can still get decent scoring as a community). Kane does ok; Joki scores lots but they score back lots; Wellwood always plays better sheltered. Poni probably does better as a 3rd liner than anyone else on our team could with tough mins and lots of DZ starts; Antro and Burmi also play decent with shutdown roles.

So given their talents and how Noel uses the lines this is most optimal, especially at home with last shift change.

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Old
08-20-2012, 06:43 AM
  #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Not so sure... Looking at how Noel uses players he usually only changed line ups much during:
Our terrible losing streaks
Injuries
At the end where he was double shifting Wheeler a lot

I'm almost certain that the lineup will start as:
1a)Ladd-Little-Wheeler
1b)Kane-Joki-Wellwood
3)Poni-Burmi-Antro

This makes most sense with how Noel uses his lines: the first line and third line splits the tough minutes but 1st gets the OZ starts and the 3rd gets the DZ starts.
Ladd, Little, and Wheeler do well against tough minutes as strong possesion players (and can still get decent scoring as a community). Kane does ok; Joki scores lots but they score back lots; Wellwood always plays better sheltered. Poni probably does better as a 3rd liner than anyone else on our team could with tough mins and lots of DZ starts; Antro and Burmi also play decent with shutdown roles.

So given their talents and how Noel uses the lines this is most optimal, especially at home with last shift change.
I pretty much agree that will be the Jets top three lines going into the season. Except I would call the first two: 2a) and 2b) The Pens have a 1a) and 1b) not us. We really don't have the players for a real #1 line. Kane no doubt one day at LW, but not quite ready yet. A argument can be made for Wheels at RW but Joki is as close to a #1 centre as we got.

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08-20-2012, 07:12 AM
  #11
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I dont think he will get the same numbers
I think he will pkay on the third line with poni and antro

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08-20-2012, 08:53 AM
  #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KingBogo View Post
I pretty much agree that will be the Jets top three lines going into the season. Except I would call the first two: 2a) and 2b) The Pens have a 1a) and 1b) not us. We really don't have the players for a real #1 line. Kane no doubt one day at LW, but not quite ready yet. A argument can be made for Wheels at RW but Joki is as close to a #1 centre as we got.
Tad off topic and I think we'd just be arguing over symantics but I'm still going to argue against this one (I'll just do points and point rates for now... I'll put possession up here later):

#Ladd - 17th in goals and 12th in ES goal scoring rate for LW makes him a league average 1st line goal scorer
#Little - 16th in goals and 38th* in ES goal scoring rate for C makes him a league average-weak 1st line goal scorer
#Wheeler - 5th in assists and 6th in ES primary assists rate for RW makes him an elite 1st line playmaker/setup man

#Kane - 14th in goals and 5th in ES goal scoring rate for LW makes him a league an elite 1st line goal scorer
#Jokinen - 20th in goals, 19th in assists and 43rd* in ES goal scoring rate, and 79th* in ES primary assists scoring rate for C makes him a league strong 2nd line goal scorer and an average 2nd line playmaker/setup man with strong 1st line PP skills (thats where a lot of his additional points came from)
#Wellwood - 26th in assists and 30th in ES primary assists rate for RW makes him a weak 1st line playmaker/setup man

***Jokinen's and Little's scoring/assist rates are deflated due to BEHINDTHENET.com having players in centre that aren't supposed to be (ex: E.Kane).

Looks like it could be a 1a) and 1b) if used appropriately... we just don't have name brand power with "superstars".


Back on topic:
I really don't know about Wellwood. Apparently he is training hard this offseason, which is a first in his life. His career high shooting % and team-leading secondary assists were overly high but, if he is indeed on a line with Kane and Jokinen for the full year, I can see him putting up similar points (but still unlikely)... if he gets pushed down to third by either Burmi or Antro I would make it a forsure thing he fails to reach them.


Possession stats:
#Ladd - 10th for CorsiOn and 2nd for CorsiRel for LW
#Little - 24th for CorsiOn and 16th for CorsiRel for C
#Wheeler - 17th for CorsiOn and 11th for CorsiRel for RW

#Kane - 27th for Corsi and 22nd for CorsiRel for LW
#Jokinen - *** see bellow
#Wellwood - 11th for CorsiOn and 6th for CorsiRel for RW

*** Jokinen, when not on the PP, was mostly used how we used Slater (lots of defensive zone starts against tough quality of competition), which is why I suggest him being placed on the second line at first under sheltered minutes and then pushing him up with streaks/injuries, much like we did last year with Kane


Last edited by garret9: 08-20-2012 at 09:31 PM. Reason: Added CorsiOn and CorsiRel
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Old
08-20-2012, 09:40 AM
  #13
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I think there's a decent chance Welly will match his numbers if he plays top 6 minutes.

I've got no idea what kind of minutes he, or any other Jet forward outside of Wheeler will get.

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08-20-2012, 12:39 PM
  #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Tad off topic and I think we'd just be arguing over symantics but I'm still going to argue against this one (I'll just do points and point rates for now... I'll put possession up here later):

#Ladd - 17th in goals and 12th in ES goal scoring rate for LW makes him a league average 1st line goal scorer
#Little - 16th in goals and 38th* in ES goal scoring rate for C makes him a league average-weak 1st line goal scorer
#Wheeler - 5th in assists and 6th in ES primary assists rate for RW makes him an elite 1st line playmaker/setup man

#Kane - 14th in goals and 5th in ES goal scoring rate for LW makes him a league an elite 1st line goal scorer
#Jokinen - 20th in goals, 19th in assists and 43rd* in ES goal scoring rate, and 79th* in ES primary assists scoring rate for C makes him a league strong 2nd line goal scorer and an average 2nd line playmaker/setup man with strong 1st line PP skills (thats where a lot of his additional points came from)
#Wellwood - 26th in assists and 30th in ES primary assists rate for RW makes him a weak 1st line playmaker/setup man

***Jokinen's and Little's scoring/assist rates are deflated due to BEHINDTHENET.com having players in centre that aren't supposed to be (ex: E.Kane).

Looks like it could be a 1a) and 1b) if used appropriately... we just don't have name brand power with "superstars".



Back on topic:
I really don't know about Wellwood. Apparently he is training hard this offseason, which is a first in his life. His career high shooting % and team-leading secondary assists were overly high but, if he is indeed on a line with Kane and Jokinen for the full year, I can see him putting up similar points (but still unlikely)... if he gets pushed down to third by either Burmi or Antro I would make it a forsure thing he fails to reach them.
Totally agree. If he gets to stay with Kane and Joki all year i'd give him a 50% chance of repeating (his "lucky numbers" hurt his chances, but his improved line mates probably make up for that). If he drops there is no way I see him repeating he spends a large amount of time on the third of fourth lines.

OT: I'm so happy to see someone else take up the charge for my crusade of "What Is a First Liner?". Everyone seems stuck on the idea of 70+ or 60+ (at absolute minimum!) scoring rates to be a "legitimate" first liner, when clearly, it should not be a standard point production but top 30 placement in their position. Relative statements (such as "first liner") are not static/definitive (SURPRISE!).

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Old
08-20-2012, 12:54 PM
  #15
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I think that things are setting up to at least give Wellwood the "chance" to duplicate his numbers from last year. It sounds like he has taken his fitness seriously this offseason, and the team has more depth up front than last year as well.

I think he can repeat (or possibly better) his numbers from last year depending on the following:

1) His Health (he played 77 games last year. He won't be able to miss any more than that.

2) Team Health (the added depth will help Wellwood if he stays in the top 6, but it won't help very much if the injury bug goes through the top 6 either).

3) Role / Useage (If Wellwood gets to play minutes on the top 6 with quality linemates (Kane, Little, Jokinen, Ladd, or Wheeler), he should have a good shot. It might hurt his chances if his PP time goes down (1:59 a game last year good for 9th overall, 6th for forwards and 3rd for centres).

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Old
08-20-2012, 01:24 PM
  #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Huffer View Post
I think that things are setting up to at least give Wellwood the "chance" to duplicate his numbers from last year. It sounds like he has taken his fitness seriously this offseason, and the team has more depth up front than last year as well.

I think he can repeat (or possibly better) his numbers from last year depending on the following:

1) His Health (he played 77 games last year. He won't be able to miss any more than that.

2) Team Health (the added depth will help Wellwood if he stays in the top 6, but it won't help very much if the injury bug goes through the top 6 either).

3) Role / Useage (If Wellwood gets to play minutes on the top 6 with quality linemates (Kane, Little, Jokinen, Ladd, or Wheeler), he should have a good shot. It might hurt his chances if his PP time goes down (1:59 a game last year good for 9th overall, 6th for forwards and 3rd for centres).
Usage is huge.

In Toronto in 2006-07 Welly played 2nd line minutes, but got over 4 minutes / game on the powerplay.

He scored 42 points in 48 games that year.

Welly has the ability to match or surpass his 2011-12 point totals IF he gets favorable minutes.

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Old
08-20-2012, 01:48 PM
  #17
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I think we end up trading him at the Deadline for a 2nd to a team that wants to compete

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08-20-2012, 02:05 PM
  #18
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Originally Posted by KingJet View Post
I think we end up trading him at the Deadline for a 2nd to a team that wants to compete
If for some reason the Jets are out of the playoff picture (Injuries or Pav crapping the bed is the only way I see this happening) they will have many tradable assets at the deadline. Players like Poni, Antro (if he wants), Hainsey, Clitsome or Wellwood could all net the Jets a return.

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