Sam Gagner has looked better thus far, and been able to stay relatively healthy. But I would take JVR, and I could very well be wrong in choosing JVR, but I think he has the potential to better.
I have higher expectations for JVR next season than I do Gagner. If JVR doesn't meet my expectations with the Leafs, then I could change my answer. But for now I'll go with JVR.
Voted they both suck, but that's a bit too harsh. I'd rather have Gagner since JVR has proven zilch and is signed long term. At least you have a low risk, high reward scenario with Gagner as his contract runs out sooner.
Why, because he's bigger? If they are the same age and one is consistently more productive than the other i find it odd that one guy will suddenly develop alot more than the other.
Why, because he's bigger? If they are the same age and one is consistently more productive than the other i find it odd that one guy will suddenly develop alot more than the other.
Not that I'm defending him (because I've barely seen JVR), but its pretty commonplace for bigger players to develop slower than smaller, skilled guys.
Not that I'm defending him (because I've barely seen JVR), but its pretty commonplace for bigger players to develop slower than smaller, skilled guys.
Thats a fair point, but you could argue the same about small skill players needing to mature as well before they are at their best. I still think the gap in performance is rather large to expect JVR not to just meet Gagner's ability but to surpass it. People on HF tend to forget that Gagner at 22 is probably still going to get better, he certainly improved his speed and strength last year. If i was to guess Gagner most reasonable production as he develops i'd say he is going to be at least a 60 point center, at this point can we expect JVR to consistently produce that? With a career high of 40 points is it reasonable to expect a 20 point increase off his best totals? And that's to say nothing of the fact he played on a much better offensive squad than Gagner did in Edmonton up to this point.
Thats a fair point, but you could argue the same about small skill players needing to mature as well before they are at their best. I still think the gap in performance is rather large to expect JVR not to just meet Gagner's ability but to surpass it. People on HF tend to forget that Gagner at 22 is probably still going to get better, he certainly improved his speed and strength last year. If i was to guess Gagner most reasonable production as he develops i'd say he is going to be at least a 60 point center, at this point can we expect JVR to consistently produce that? With a career high of 40 points is it reasonable to expect a 20 point increase off his best totals? And that's to say nothing of the fact he played on a much better offensive squad than Gagner did in Edmonton up to this point.
If you've put up the same stats 5 years in a row, I don't care how young or how much potential you have, you're not getting much better.
The only thing 'disappointing' about JVR is that he developed slowly. Other than that, the sky is the limit. He has shown at times to be downright frighteningly dominant.
His game is 100% dependent on his confidence. Anybody who says that he 'didnt reach expectations' is a stat watcher and shouldnt be taken seriously. Whether he puts it together consistently remains to be seen, but he certainly has the ability to be a force in this league.
Admittedly, I dont know enough about Gagner, although I can gather that he has never shown the dominance that JVR has shown at times (with the obvious exception against his 8 point night ).
I guess its fair if someone thinks Gagner will eventually be the better player but personally i'd go with JvR easily. His value is much more also, Gagner would've never landed Schenn.
What if during that same span of time you played progressively tougher minutes, less PP time, tougher competition?
Wouldn't that imply improvement? Gagner is an established 2nd line centre in this league.
Not to mention his team scored less goals year after year for the most part, and besides the rookie season his ppg has improved every season including this one despite a lesser role with the addition of Hopkins. If you are looking at the stats you are really taking avery narrow minded view. Gagner is quality, and an improving one at that. He's going to make a lot of people on HF look very dumb, especially if he ever does get traded. It's hilarious how common people seem to think 22 year old centers with a career ppg that prorates to just shy of 50 per year must be. Centers who can average nearly a ppg of 50 points a year over 5 seasons are far less common than HF realizes.
Gagner has the brain but not the physical tools, JVR has the physical tools but not the brain. Gagner is and probably will continue being more consistent whereas JVR can dominate but not consistently. It's a matter of personal opinion, no wrong answer. I've always like Gagner a little more.
Since his rookie season Sam Gagner in the last 5 years has the 39th best ppg of all regualr centers in the league, for a guy who would be on the last year of his ELC had he finished his junior career that's unreal.
Note: I ommited 16 "centers" from the list, guys like Eberle, Cammallari, Franazen, Parise, ect.. were primarly wingers. I tried to be liberal so i kept some guys like Sharp as a center, but if i felt the guy played much more on the wing i didn't count him. Feel free to make your own count.
To further illustrate my point only 32 more centers have had a better 1-5 years in the league prior to age 25 in the past 20 years (minimum 100 games)! The guy right behind him? Henrik Sedin, a guy who also "stagnated" early on in his career. That is a mighty impressive list that Gagner has managed to appear relatively high on, and some of those players didn't begin their careers until their mid 20's not playing a full 5 years as Gagner had (this typically would hurt Gagner in comparison).
In summary Gagner is tracking much much better than people give him credit for, and will probably be a quality 1st line center in his prime. Basically he should be at least as good as Stephen Weiss (drafted in the same range, scored about the same at Gagner's current age and he is of similar build and skillset), so yeah pretty good.
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