By The NumbersHockey Analytics... the Final Frontier. Explore strange new worlds, to seek out new algorithms, to boldly go where no one has gone before.
The plus-minus statistic is often reviled by NHL fans as a useless statistic. This is understandable, as the stat produces numbers that are often inexplicable. Most importantly, a player’s team is a major factor in his plus-minus.
However, the plus-minus stat is not without merit. Most importantly, it aims to measure the most important part of winning – outscoring the other team. The only thing that matters in winning hockey games is outscoring the other team, whether by scoring goals or preventing them. Evaluating players based on scoring stats alone will more directly measure a player’s contribution to scoring, but will fail to capture other aspects of the game, especially defensive play. Plus-minus aims to capture the full impact of a player’s game, but it is a more indirect measure that can be influenced by a number of factors out of the player’s control.
The most important of these is the quality of the team on which the player plays. My adjusted even-strength plus-minus statistic attempts to remove this bias from the numbers and present a number that can compare players from bad teams and good teams on an equal footing. Specifically, the method of adjusting for team is to compare the team’s goals for and against while the player is on the ice to the team’s goals and against while the player is off the ice. Additionally, plus-minus includes shorthanded goals scored by both teams. This introduces a bias against players who play on the power play and in favor of players who play on the penalty kill. My adjusted plus-minus estimates on-ice shorthanded goals based on on-ice power play goals, as on-ice shorthanded goals for individuals are not available for most years, and removes them from the player’s record.
To calculate the adjusted plus-minus, I take the player’s on-ice total goals for and against as given. I calculate an expected plus-minus for the player, based on his team’s off-ice performance. The expected plus-minus is calculated using the off-ice performance regressed partially to even, as a player should be expected to play somewhat better than a set of bad teammates or worse than a set of good teammates. I then calculate an actual plus-minus, which differs from official NHL plus-minus in that it is normalized to a scoring environment of 200 even-strength goal per season and does not include shorthanded goals. I subtract the “expected plus-minus” from the “actual plus-minus” to generate an adjusted plus-minus number.
While this method removes many of the biases from raw plus-minus, it is still an imperfect method of rating players. First, most importantly, it is for even-strength play only. Second, a player’s linemates or defence partner may exert a major influence on a player’s numbers – see Milan Hedjuk for a prime example. Third, the on-ice/off-ice method of adjusting for team implicitly compares a player to the other players on his team who play the same position but on another line or D-pairing. If a player is on the same team as a great player, the off-ice baseline may not be a fair comparison. For example, Ted Green’s 1971 season has one of the lowest adjusted plus-minus ratings ever. When you realize that much of his off-ice baseline was set by Bobby Orr, the reason for the low rating becomes clear. Also, some players play more difficult opposition than others, facing the other team’s best players and taking more defensive zone faceoffs. These differences can also skew the numbers.
For the above reasons, please keep the following in mind when using these numbers to evaluate players
Adjusted plus-minus is best used to compare players who played in a similar role. For example, compare #1 defensemen who played the toughest ice-time on the team to other #1 defensemen, not to #6 defensemen who were sheltered by their coaches from the best players. For example, take Tom Preissing’s rating with a huge grain of salt.
Adjusted plus-minus is measured against a baseline of average, so it will tend to underrate players with a long decline phase or several poor years at the start of their career (Mark Messier) and give high ratings to players who retired young and didn’t play a lot past their prime(Bobby Orr, Eric Lindros).
Adjusted plus-minus is measured against a baseline of average, so it will tend to underrate players with a long decline phase or several poor years at the start of their career (Mark Messier) and give high ratings to players who retired young and didn’t play a lot past their prime(Bobby Orr, Eric Lindros).
Check to see who the player’s linemates were. Did he have a great player on his line? Charlie Simmer and Dave Taylor both have very high ratings, and likely owe much of it to Marcel Dionne.
Did the player play on a team with another great player who was on another line/D-pairing? If so, his adjusted plus-minus may be too low. Mark Messier in his Edmonton years is an example here, along with Ted Green. I don’t think there are too many cases of this kind, but there are certainly a few.
There may be a significant amount of random variation in a single-year result. For that reason, I would look at multiple years when measuring a player’s peak, and would not use this stat as definite proof that one player was better than another in a given year.
There are a lot of disclaimers there, but I still believe there is a lot of good information in adjusted plus-minus when evaluating a player’s career. Even after taking the above possible biases into account, there are still some very interesting results.
SFrac: Season Fraction. 1.00 is a full season. I prefer it to games played because it gives a 48 game season, a 74 game season, an 80 game season or an 82 game season the same weight. $ESGF: Even-strength goals for, normalized to a 200 ESG scoring environment and with estimated SH goals removed. $ESGA: Even-strength goals against, normalized to a 200 ESG scoring environment and with estimated SH goals removed. R-ON: Even strength GF/GA ratio when the player is on the ice. R-OFF: Even-strength GF/GA ratio when the player is off the ice. XEV+/-: Expected even-strength plus-minus, which is an estimate of the plus-minus that an average player would post with the same teammates. The calculation is described above. EV+/-: Even –strength plus-minus, which is simply plus-minus with estimated shorthanded goals removed and normalized to a 200 ESG environment. AdjEV+/-: Adjusted even-strength plus-minus, which is even-strength plus-minus minus expected even-strength plus-minus. This is the final number.
The following three stats evaluate special teams play and are not related to adjusted plus-minus. I’m including them in the table for a quick reference to the player’s contributions outside of even-strength play. PP% : The % of the team’s power play goals for that the player was on the ice for. SH%: The % of the team’s power play goals against that the player was on the ice for. $PPP/G: Power play points per game, normalized to a 70 PPG environment and with pre-1988 PP assists estimated.
Results
Here are the top 60 in career adjusted even-strength plus-minus, as well as the players in the HOH Top 100 and several others who were strongly considered for voting.
Rk
Player
SFrac
$ESGF/G
$ESGA/G
R-ON
R-OFF
XEV+/-
EV+/-
AdjEV+/-
/Season
PP%
$PPP/G
SH%
1
Ray Bourque
20.30
1.17
0.85
1.37
0.96
-62
524
586
29
88%
0.45
58%
2
Bobby Orr
7.68
1.81
0.84
2.17
1.08
54
610
556
72
98%
0.67
63%
3
Jaromir Jagr
15.94
1.25
0.91
1.38
0.96
-39
454
493
31
68%
0.45
8%
4
Wayne Gretzky
18.82
1.43
1.11
1.27
1.01
35
469
434
23
82%
0.58
31%
5
Mark Howe*
11.70
1.13
0.75
1.50
0.98
-26
354
380
32
59%
0.24
42%
6
Eric Lindros
9.63
1.23
0.82
1.53
0.96
-38
339
377
39
68%
0.38
14%
7
Larry Robinson
17.34
1.31
0.82
1.60
1.33
331
697
366
21
49%
0.20
45%
8
Borje Salming
14.37
1.17
1.02
1.15
0.82
-194
172
366
25
62%
0.24
55%
9
Bobby Clarke
14.49
0.88
0.48
1.78
1.21
105
467
362
25
59%
0.36
40%
10
Al MacInnis
17.72
1.10
0.78
1.40
1.11
112
468
356
20
87%
0.49
39%
11
Dave Taylor
13.84
0.88
0.67
1.31
0.85
-112
235
347
25
47%
0.27
7%
12
Marcel Dionne
16.92
0.93
0.84
1.11
0.81
-210
127
336
20
77%
0.53
13%
13
Teemu Selanne
13.36
1.02
0.82
1.24
0.87
-124
211
335
25
74%
0.46
5%
14
Mario Lemieux
11.29
1.30
1.07
1.20
0.85
-130
204
334
30
94%
0.71
27%
15
Peter Forsberg
9.02
1.16
0.67
1.73
1.07
38
358
320
36
72%
0.51
21%
16
John Leclair
12.17
1.00
0.67
1.52
1.09
41
334
293
24
53%
0.26
1%
17
Mike Bossy
9.40
1.08
0.60
1.82
1.18
78
371
293
31
75%
0.49
5%
18
Bryan Trottier
15.96
0.94
0.63
1.53
1.16
118
410
292
18
54%
0.35
27%
19
Ron Francis
21.68
0.86
0.78
1.11
0.89
-123
166
290
13
73%
0.43
25%
20
Larry Murphy
20.35
1.06
0.88
1.20
1.02
21
298
276
14
65%
0.32
32%
21
Guy Lafleur
14.14
1.07
0.64
1.69
1.31
222
496
274
19
70%
0.40
4%
22
Zigmund Palffy
8.63
1.03
0.81
1.27
0.80
-113
149
263
30
71%
0.43
14%
23
Denis Potvin
13.27
1.18
0.79
1.50
1.23
166
419
253
19
87%
0.43
53%
24
Steve Larmer
12.88
0.84
0.64
1.32
0.95
-39
214
253
20
62%
0.32
24%
25
Nicklas Lidstrom
15.62
1.19
0.84
1.41
1.23
199
452
253
16
72%
0.42
54%
26
Brad McCrimmon
15.45
0.95
0.66
1.42
1.17
120
362
242
16
15%
0.05
36%
27
Keith Tkachuk
13.24
0.90
0.79
1.15
0.86
-120
120
240
18
67%
0.36
9%
28
Mike Modano
16.38
0.88
0.69
1.29
1.03
22
257
235
14
64%
0.37
27%
29
Brad Park
14.10
1.21
0.86
1.43
1.20
168
399
230
16
81%
0.35
43%
30
Scott Stevens
20.53
1.13
0.86
1.31
1.19
213
442
229
11
40%
0.16
56%
31
Brian Propp
12.65
0.85
0.57
1.49
1.10
62
288
227
18
54%
0.27
22%
32
Sergei Fedorov
14.96
0.92
0.68
1.33
1.07
62
288
226
15
59%
0.33
32%
33
Charlie Simmer
8.90
0.82
0.62
1.33
0.83
-74
148
221
25
61%
0.35
6%
34
Mats Sundin
16.32
0.97
0.85
1.14
0.94
-65
154
219
13
64%
0.36
25%
35
Joe Thornton
9.20
1.00
0.76
1.30
0.94
-34
180
214
23
66%
0.39
11%
36
Milan Hejduk
8.55
1.02
0.67
1.53
1.09
34
248
214
25
57%
0.34
13%
37
Gary Roberts
14.72
0.89
0.66
1.34
1.12
68
281
213
14
38%
0.18
11%
38
Craig Ramsay
13.44
0.72
0.48
1.51
1.10
55
267
212
16
13%
0.07
59%
39
Steve Shutt
11.66
0.95
0.52
1.82
1.43
195
407
211
18
38%
0.22
1%
40
Pierre Turgeon
16.28
0.90
0.72
1.26
1.04
26
236
210
13
62%
0.38
12%
41
Dmitri Khristich
10.30
0.79
0.60
1.31
0.91
-56
154
210
20
49%
0.24
13%
42
Michel Goulet
13.54
0.84
0.70
1.20
0.92
-56
151
206
15
55%
0.30
11%
43
Jarome Iginla
10.49
0.91
0.77
1.18
0.86
-88
118
206
20
62%
0.34
17%
44
Jean Ratelle*
13.04
0.99
0.65
1.53
1.26
155
358
204
16
60%
0.41
9%
45
Jere Lehtinen
9.38
0.82
0.51
1.61
1.10
36
237
201
21
43%
0.20
35%
46
Luc Robitaille
17.94
0.93
0.80
1.17
1.01
5
205
201
11
59%
0.35
4%
47
Ron Stackhouse
11.21
1.12
1.07
1.05
0.83
-147
47
194
17
46%
0.16
49%
48
Joe Sakic
17.07
1.02
0.88
1.16
1.01
3
196
194
11
78%
0.48
25%
49
Patrik Elias
9.09
0.89
0.57
1.57
1.12
49
241
192
21
57%
0.31
16%
50
Joe Reekie
11.46
0.84
0.69
1.21
0.91
-57
135
192
17
3%
0.01
42%
51
Simon Gagne
6.43
0.90
0.56
1.62
0.97
-16
175
191
30
51%
0.26
18%
52
Paul Kariya
11.42
0.98
0.84
1.16
0.90
-73
117
190
17
80%
0.46
16%
53
Theoren Fleury
13.66
0.98
0.81
1.19
1.00
-2
187
189
14
64%
0.35
23%
54
Jeremy Roenick
16.42
0.83
0.67
1.24
1.05
34
219
185
11
61%
0.34
20%
55
Alex Tanguay
7.43
1.08
0.71
1.51
1.10
39
224
185
25
48%
0.28
4%
56
Michael Nylander
10.35
0.78
0.62
1.27
0.91
-45
136
181
17
52%
0.25
3%
57
Chris Chelios
20.25
1.00
0.78
1.28
1.20
183
364
180
9
53%
0.23
58%
58
Mike Foligno
12.67
0.73
0.61
1.21
0.92
-54
126
180
14
38%
0.16
4%
59
Petr Svoboda
13.23
0.86
0.66
1.30
1.07
31
209
178
13
36%
0.15
24%
60
Chris Pronger
11.81
1.03
0.84
1.21
0.98
-7
169
175
15
66%
0.36
54%
61
Brendan Shanahan
18.63
0.86
0.70
1.23
1.08
75
245
170
9
60%
0.36
14%
70
Doug Gilmour
18.52
0.86
0.75
1.15
1.01
-3
160
163
9
58%
0.32
34%
90
Stan Mikita*
10.82
0.89
0.67
1.33
1.13
56
201
145
13
71%
0.44
25%
92
Denis Savard
15.19
0.82
0.71
1.16
1.01
-12
133
145
10
59%
0.36
13%
98
Gordie Howe*
4.81
1.01
0.74
1.37
0.90
-29
110
139
29
64%
0.33
16%
101
Jari Kurri
15.79
1.00
0.81
1.22
1.11
101
238
137
9
49%
0.29
26%
102
Steve Yzerman
19.03
0.99
0.84
1.19
1.11
97
232
135
7
68%
0.39
36%
104
Mike Gartner
18.05
0.85
0.76
1.12
1.01
3
137
134
7
52%
0.27
10%
105
Frank Mahovlich*
6.65
1.10
0.74
1.51
1.20
65
199
134
20
70%
0.39
26%
122
Jacques Laperriere*
5.67
1.45
0.94
1.53
1.31
112
232
120
21
35%
0.10
73%
127
Paul Coffey
17.79
1.28
1.04
1.23
1.20
238
356
117
7
78%
0.44
27%
129
Scott Niedermayer
13.80
1.05
0.81
1.30
1.23
162
278
116
8
62%
0.27
36%
130
Yvan Cournoyer*
9.92
0.98
0.60
1.64
1.53
194
310
116
12
62%
0.39
0%
135
Igor Larionov*
11.56
0.70
0.55
1.27
1.07
22
136
115
10
44%
0.27
12%
162
Bobby Hull*
5.07
1.11
0.77
1.48
1.16
38
138
101
20
78%
0.45
24%
169
Joe Nieuwendyk
15.80
0.79
0.62
1.29
1.22
140
236
96
6
55%
0.33
9%
171
Pat Lafontaine
10.89
0.91
0.85
1.07
0.95
-35
60
96
9
71%
0.42
11%
173
Peter Stastny
12.22
0.94
0.87
1.09
0.96
-23
71
94
8
71%
0.42
8%
188
Alex Delvecchio*
5.98
0.96
0.83
1.14
0.92
-25
65
90
15
68%
0.37
20%
195
Brian Leetch
15.17
1.14
1.07
1.06
0.98
-30
60
90
6
87%
0.47
49%
203
Adam Oates
16.82
0.91
0.85
1.06
0.99
-7
79
86
5
72%
0.39
27%
227
Phil Esposito*
13.36
1.15
0.92
1.26
1.22
183
260
76
6
82%
0.63
27%
228
Sergei Makarov*
5.57
0.94
0.73
1.27
1.06
11
87
76
14
47%
0.25
1%
229
Pavel Bure
8.91
1.04
0.96
1.08
0.96
-15
61
76
9
73%
0.37
27%
238
Dale Hawerchuk
14.90
0.86
0.85
1.02
0.93
-66
9
74
5
72%
0.44
12%
270
Norm Ullman*
7.68
0.93
0.82
1.13
1.01
1
69
68
9
45%
0.28
9%
285
Vyacheslav Fetisov*
6.84
0.91
0.68
1.35
1.22
65
130
65
10
27%
0.10
27%
310
Tim Horton*
6.03
1.17
1.02
1.15
1.06
16
77
61
10
29%
0.08
60%
324
Serge Savard
13.20
1.28
0.89
1.46
1.52
366
424
58
4
24%
0.08
58%
352
Henri Richard*
6.38
0.89
0.62
1.43
1.38
89
141
52
8
12%
0.08
3%
368
Darryl Sittler
13.79
0.89
0.82
1.09
1.06
31
80
49
4
53%
0.33
18%
400
Jean Beliveau*
3.43
0.96
0.65
1.50
1.27
43
88
44
13
64%
0.46
0%
752
John Bucyk*
10.08
0.87
0.64
1.38
1.49
181
196
15
1
74%
0.50
0%
828
Brett Hull
15.96
0.96
0.87
1.10
1.12
110
121
11
1
71%
0.43
15%
1835
Dave Keon*
10.56
0.71
0.71
1.01
0.99
1
0
-1
0
45%
0.22
36%
2086
Mark Messier
22.05
0.90
0.82
1.08
1.12
139
138
-1
0
56%
0.33
41%
2772
Gilbert Perreault
14.98
0.92
0.84
1.08
1.13
93
88
-5
0
70%
0.41
12%
3876
Vaclav Nedomansky*
5.26
0.46
0.62
0.76
0.84
-39
-67
-28
-5
53%
0.28
0%
4043
Guy Lapointe
11.15
1.23
0.87
1.42
1.63
360
324
-36
-3
64%
0.28
53%
4291
Bob Gainey
14.52
0.62
0.50
1.23
1.53
202
140
-62
-4
5%
0.02
45%
*played significant years before 1968 or outside the NHL
2011 Update
Here's a complete update of the numbers through 2011.
I have made a couple of changes to the method. First, I lowered the adjustment factor slightly, to the benefit of players who were on good teams. Second, I made a change to the way I estimate and remove shorthanded goals from the numbers, using actual SHP, which hurts a few players who scored a lot of SHP.
Top 50
Player
SFrac
$ESGF/G
$ESGA/G
R-ON
R-OFF
XEV+/-
EV+/-
AEV+/-
/Season
Ray Bourque
20.3
1.16
0.85
1.37
0.95
-54
523
577
28
Bobby Orr
7.7
1.81
0.84
2.15
1.09
47
610
562
73
Jaromir Jagr
15.9
1.25
0.91
1.37
0.95
-49
444
493
31
Larry Robinson
17.3
1.31
0.82
1.60
1.34
285
696
411
24
Al MacInnis
17.7
1.10
0.78
1.41
1.12
98
467
369
21
Mark Howe
11.7
1.11
0.75
1.48
0.97
-20
347
367
31
Eric Lindros
9.6
1.24
0.82
1.52
0.95
-29
334
363
38
Bobby Clarke
14.5
0.87
0.48
1.79
1.20
93
454
361
25
Teemu Selanne
15.7
0.97
0.79
1.23
0.85
-121
237
357
23
Nicklas Lidstrom
18.6
1.18
0.84
1.40
1.18
164
517
353
19
Borje Salming
14.4
1.17
1.02
1.14
0.82
-169
172
340
24
Wayne Gretzky
18.8
1.38
1.12
1.23
1.05
64
404
339
18
Dave Taylor
13.8
0.88
0.67
1.31
0.84
-99
234
333
24
Peter Forsberg
9.0
1.12
0.66
1.69
1.09
37
340
303
34
Guy Lafleur
14.1
1.06
0.64
1.67
1.35
193
492
299
21
Mike Bossy
9.4
1.08
0.60
1.79
1.18
69
365
297
32
Bryan Trottier
16.0
0.93
0.63
1.49
1.17
104
400
296
19
John Leclair
12.2
1.01
0.68
1.49
1.07
38
333
295
24
Marcel Dionne
16.9
0.92
0.84
1.09
0.81
-171
110
281
17
Larry Murphy
20.3
1.06
0.88
1.20
1.02
20
298
278
14
Denis Potvin
13.3
1.18
0.79
1.49
1.23
145
420
275
21
Mario Lemieux
11.3
1.26
1.07
1.18
0.87
-96
176
273
24
Ron Francis
21.7
0.88
0.80
1.11
0.90
-106
157
263
12
Brad Park
14.1
1.21
0.86
1.40
1.20
144
400
256
18
Brad McCrimmon
15.4
0.94
0.65
1.44
1.18
107
362
255
17
Joe Thornton
12.1
0.99
0.75
1.32
0.97
-18
237
255
21
Scott Stevens
20.5
1.13
0.86
1.31
1.19
188
443
255
12
Brian Rafalski
10.2
1.10
0.78
1.41
1.05
27
266
239
24
Steve Shutt
11.7
0.94
0.52
1.81
1.45
168
404
235
20
Steve Larmer
12.9
0.83
0.64
1.30
0.94
-29
202
231
18
Patrik Elias
11.7
0.87
0.59
1.47
1.09
37
267
229
20
Sergei Fedorov
15.6
0.91
0.68
1.33
1.09
59
287
227
15
Brian Propp
12.7
0.84
0.57
1.47
1.12
56
277
222
18
Zigmund Palffy
8.6
0.99
0.81
1.23
0.80
-91
131
221
26
Alex Tanguay
10.0
1.02
0.72
1.41
1.06
25
244
219
22
Chris Pronger
14.4
1.01
0.83
1.22
0.99
-6
213
219
15
Jean Ratelle
13.0
0.98
0.65
1.51
1.27
135
353
218
17
Craig Ramsay
13.4
0.72
0.48
1.50
1.12
47
264
217
16
Charlie Simmer
8.9
0.82
0.62
1.33
0.83
-64
147
211
24
Alex Ovechkin
5.8
1.22
0.85
1.44
0.90
-32
176
208
36
Pavel Datsyuk
8.1
1.01
0.64
1.58
1.12
40
247
207
26
Gary Roberts
15.1
0.87
0.65
1.33
1.10
60
266
207
14
Milan Hejduk
11.1
0.96
0.72
1.33
1.03
13
217
204
18
Keith Tkachuk
15.0
0.92
0.83
1.10
0.87
-101
103
203
14
Pierre Turgeon
16.3
0.89
0.72
1.24
1.04
25
228
203
12
Jere Lehtinen
10.7
0.78
0.52
1.49
1.07
26
226
200
19
Henrik Sedin
9.9
0.85
0.58
1.46
1.05
19
219
200
20
Luc Robitaille
17.9
0.94
0.80
1.17
1.00
3
202
199
11
Chris Chelios
20.7
0.99
0.77
1.27
1.18
162
359
196
10
Daniel Sedin
9.6
0.82
0.55
1.49
1.04
15
210
195
20
Other players of interest
Player
SFrac
$ESGF/G
$ESGA/G
R-ON
R-OFF
XEV+/-
EV+/-
AEV+/-
/Season
Joe Sakic
17.3
1.00
0.88
1.14
1.01
9
173
164
10
Cam Neely
9.4
0.90
0.73
1.23
0.93
-30
130
160
17
Sidney Crosby
5.0
1.18
0.88
1.34
0.89
-32
122
154
31
Brendan Shanahan
19.0
0.84
0.70
1.21
1.10
72
224
152
8
Doug Gilmour
18.5
0.85
0.75
1.13
1.00
0
151
151
8
Paul Coffey
17.8
1.29
1.04
1.23
1.21
206
357
151
8
Stan Mikita
10.8
0.89
0.67
1.33
1.12
51
198
147
14
Frank Mahovlich
6.6
1.10
0.74
1.49
1.19
56
198
142
21
Yvan Cournoyer
9.9
0.98
0.60
1.63
1.50
168
308
140
14
Steve Yzerman
19.0
0.98
0.84
1.17
1.10
88
225
136
7
Jacques Laperriere
5.7
1.45
0.95
1.53
1.31
97
233
136
24
Gordie Howe
4.8
1.01
0.74
1.37
0.90
-24
106
131
27
Jari Kurri
15.8
0.98
0.81
1.21
1.13
92
221
129
8
Denis Savard
15.2
0.80
0.70
1.13
0.99
-4
117
121
8
Rod Langway
12.4
0.91
0.70
1.29
1.20
95
210
115
9
Bill Barber
11.3
0.83
0.53
1.57
1.50
164
278
114
10
Scott Niedermayer
15.8
1.04
0.83
1.25
1.22
155
265
110
7
Serge Savard
13.2
1.28
0.89
1.44
1.52
318
425
107
8
Brian Leetch
15.2
1.14
1.07
1.06
0.97
-24
76
101
7
Igor Larionov
11.6
0.73
0.61
1.20
1.06
22
118
96
8
Phil Esposito
13.4
1.15
0.91
1.25
1.25
162
253
91
7
Alex Delvecchio
6.0
0.96
0.83
1.16
0.93
-21
65
86
14
Pat Lafontaine
10.9
0.91
0.85
1.07
0.95
-27
55
82
8
Sergei Makarov
5.6
0.93
0.74
1.26
1.04
11
87
76
14
Vyacheslav Fetisov
6.8
0.91
0.69
1.33
1.21
57
128
71
10
Norm Ullman
7.7
0.93
0.82
1.13
1.01
3
68
66
9
Henri Richard
6.4
0.89
0.62
1.43
1.35
78
141
63
10
Mark Recchi
20.6
0.89
0.84
1.06
1.03
24
87
63
3
Tim Horton
6.0
1.18
1.02
1.15
1.04
15
78
63
10
J.C. Tremblay
4.7
1.32
0.96
1.37
1.33
82
138
57
12
Jean Beliveau
3.4
0.96
0.65
1.48
1.29
38
88
50
15
Dale Hawerchuk
14.9
0.85
0.85
1.00
0.93
-50
-2
49
3
Darryl Sittler
13.8
0.89
0.82
1.08
1.04
27
75
48
3
John Bucyk
10.1
0.87
0.64
1.37
1.47
157
196
39
4
Guy Lapointe
11.1
1.23
0.87
1.41
1.66
313
324
11
1
Brett Hull
16.0
0.95
0.87
1.09
1.14
99
106
7
0
Gilbert Perreault
15.0
0.91
0.84
1.08
1.12
83
85
3
0
Mark Messier
22.1
0.89
0.82
1.08
1.14
127
118
-10
0
Dave Keon
10.6
0.69
0.71
0.97
1.01
4
-16
-20
-2
Vaclav Nedomansky
5.3
0.46
0.62
0.75
0.81
-32
-66
-34
-6
Bob Gainey
14.5
0.62
0.50
1.23
1.51
177
136
-41
-3
Last edited by overpass: 08-20-2011 at 08:06 PM.
Reason: Updated for 2011
Ray Bourque tops the list, and rightly so, I believe. Bourque was almost a latter-day Gordie Howe in his ability to consistently play at a very high level for a very long time, and he may have the most career value of any player since 1968.
Bobby Orr’s numbers are absolutely incredible. His on-ice impact was like no other player in hockey history. The fact that he played in an expansion and WHA diluted league must be taken into account, but even so I’m convinced that he’s the #1 hockey player on peak value.
Gretzky’s career numbers are surprisingly unimpressive. Fourth place isn’t bad, but one would expect more from the Great One. However, a season-by-season examination reveals that almost all of his positive value came in his Edmonton years, and he was barely above average in Los Angeles and New York. For this reason I see him as more of a terrific 8-10 year prime candidate than a 20 year Bourque or Howe type candidate, despite his high scoring throughout his career.
Jagr’s excellence can be obscured by his poor teams or the fact that he played in a low-scoring era, but his seven year run from 1995-2001 was incredible.
Lemieux is surprisingly low on this, but his per-game results are very good, he played a number of games before and after his prime, and he was possibly the greatest power play player in history.
Larry Robinson isn’t #1 as he is in unadjusted plus-minus, but still scores very well.
Others who look very good by this metric are Mark Howe, Lindros, Clarke, Salming, MacInnis, and Dionne.
Notice Dave Taylor and John LeClair in the top 20 as a couple of players who probably have large linemate effects.
Among players who were named to or considered for the HOH Top-100, Bob Gainey, Guy Lapointe, Mark Messier, Gilbert Perreault, and Brett Hull all have very ordinary numbers here.
Gainey and Lapointe are very difficult cases. As they spent their prime years on the best team of all time, it’s hard to know how well a teammate comparison works when the teammates are this good. Lapointe also put up terrible numbers after leaving the Canadiens, and a prime-only comparison would make him look better. These numbers may underrate Gainey, but I still feel he’s overrated – compare his numbers to contemporary shutdown left winger Craig Ramsay.
Messier suffers from two factors – he played on a team with Gretzky for years on a different line, and he had several terrible years at the end of his career. Remove these final years and adjust for the Gretzky factor, and his numbers are closer to Yzerman.
I think Perreault and Hull are just overrated – both weren’t among the scoring leaders as much as you might think and, if the numbers are correct, did very little other than scoring.
Finally, I’d like to push Eric Lindros and Mark Howe for the HOH Top-100 based on these numbers. Neither one had a long career, and other players did more on special teams, but very few were impact players at even-strength like these two were.
Not surprised to see the likes of Lehtinen, Elias, Ramsay, Modano etc on the list.
In my experience, two way forwards tend to be underrated, which is unfortunate considering that two way play often contributes as much (or more) to winning as scoring a ton of points does.
- WOW! When you sent me this spreadsheet and I played around with it, I hadn't noticed that it was adjusted for era. I noted that Orr's per-game average was almost double that of the next best, Lindros. Part of that, thought, was due to the higher-scoring era he played in. I had no idea this was already adjusted. Incredible how good Orr was.
- Good point regarding Gainey. It can be misleading to see him so low because he played against top lines all the time, and also because the benchmark for him was a team that was frequently first overall. That said, it did not stop Robinson from placing so high, and, I never realized before that the "good team, bad team" factor was accounted for. One look at this list should cast serious doubt on Gainey's seemingly automatic status of best defensive forward of all-time. Especially when you look way up the list and see contemporary Craig Ramsay.
Can you post the numbers for post-lockout (Top 20 from 05-06 to 08-09)
It's really fascinating to see Howe top 10 in AdjEV+/- /Season
Selänne does really well here, I think he got somewhat underrated last year, I can't seem to find stats for the Olympics but he has scored 20 goals in 25 games, so he must be pretty hign on the scoring list there.
Can you post the numbers for post-lockout (Top 20 from 05-06 to 08-09)
It's really fascinating to see Howe top 10 in AdjEV+/- /Season
Selänne does really well here, I think he got somewhat underrated last year, I can't seem to find stats for the Olympics but he has scored 20 goals in 25 games, so he must be pretty hign on the scoring list there.
Top 20 in Adjusted Even-strength Plus-Minus, 2006-2008
Rk
Player
Years
SFrac
ESGF/G
ESGA/G
R-ON
R-OFF
XEV+/-
EV+/-
AdjEV+/-
/S
1
Joe Thornton
2006-2008
2.99
1.12
0.65
1.72
0.83
-25
114
139
47
2
Dany Heatley
2006-2008
2.87
1.25
0.71
1.76
1.08
10
127
117
41
3
Pavel Datsyuk
2006-2008
2.88
1.13
0.54
2.09
1.18
25
140
115
40
4
Jaromir Jagr
2006-2008
3.00
1.09
0.67
1.63
0.94
-10
104
113
38
5
Alexander Ovechkin
2006-2008
2.99
1.18
0.94
1.25
0.75
-55
59
112
37
6
Sidney Crosby
2006-2008
2.60
1.09
0.83
1.32
0.78
-42
55
98
38
7
Teemu Selanne
2006-2008
2.29
0.97
0.50
1.94
0.95
-6
87
94
41
8
Nicklas Lidstrom
2006-2008
2.88
1.21
0.66
1.82
1.24
37
129
93
32
9
Jason Spezza
2006-2008
2.57
1.21
0.74
1.64
1.11
12
99
87
34
10
Tom Preissing
2006-2008
2.82
0.94
0.65
1.46
0.91
-14
68
83
29
11
Jonathan Cheechoo
2006-2008
2.77
0.88
0.56
1.58
0.95
-8
73
82
30
12
Simon Gagne
2006-2008
2.11
0.98
0.75
1.32
0.69
-41
40
82
39
13
Ryan Getzlaf
2006-2008
2.63
0.76
0.41
1.87
0.99
-4
75
81
31
14
Henrik Zetterberg
2006-2008
2.62
1.08
0.56
1.92
1.27
31
111
81
31
15
Daniel Alfredsson
2006-2008
2.73
1.14
0.71
1.61
1.15
20
97
78
29
16
Mike Knuble
2006-2008
2.78
0.87
0.69
1.26
0.77
-37
41
76
27
17
Marek Malik
2006-2008
2.26
0.97
0.56
1.74
1.02
2
77
75
33
18
Jason Arnott
2006-2008
2.78
0.99
0.66
1.50
1.05
3
77
71
26
19
Nathan Horton
2006-2008
2.87
0.93
0.69
1.35
0.92
-13
57
70
24
20
Jarome Iginla
2006-2008
2.85
0.99
0.70
1.40
0.98
-4
66
70
25
Here are the numbers for the 3 seasons from 2006-2008. They don't include the current season.
There are a number of linemates on this list, so some of these players may be on this list because of their linemates as much as their own play.
Peter Forsberg just missed the list despite the fact that he only played half the games in these three seasons, and Gagne and Knuble may be on the list in part because of him (although Gagne had very good numbers before 2006 also.)
Malik and Preissing rank very well by this method, as they do by raw plus-minus. While they may be underrated, I believe that both played a lot of minutes with their team's top offensive players, Preissing with the Heatley-Spezza-Alfredsson line in Ottawa and Malik with the Jagr line in New York, and this inflated their numbers.
This method ranks Ovechkin and Crosby more favorably than raw plus-minus, as both had relatively weak teammates over the past 3 years.
The list is fairly forward-heavy, and few defensemen have done well in these numbers in the past few years. Lidstrom stands out here as the only top defenseman to make the list.
I should also add that exact even-strength and shorthanded on-ice numbers are available for post-lockout season, but I haven't included them, but have instead estimated them as I have for all years 1968-2008. As a result, there are probably more accurate methods of player valuation available in recent years. The advantage of my method is that it is directly comparable over the last 40 years.
Gordie Howe does score very well. When you consider that those were his age 39-42 and age 51 seasons, I have little doubt that if adjusted plus-minus numbers were available for his whole career he would be at or very near the top of the list.
Where do you get the "Percentage of Power Play Goals that the player was on the ice for" statistic?
Not doubtng it, but I would love to know the source. Having watched most of Bobby Orr's career, I believe that he was on the ice for 98% of the Bruins PPGs...
Where do you get the "Percentage of Power Play Goals that the player was on the ice for" statistic?
Not doubtng it, but I would love to know the source. Having watched most of Bobby Orr's career, I believe that he was on the ice for 98% of the Bruins PPGs...
Thanks
It would be found by simply dividing the player's PPGF (PPG that he was on the ice for) by the team's total PPG. Both numbers are readily available at places like www.hockey-reference.com.
Maybe I'm just missing it on one of those many stat columns, but could you list the players who have the biggest percentage movement up or down after adjustment? It would be interesting to see who makes the biggest jump.
Maybe I'm just missing it on one of those many stat columns, but could you list the players who have the biggest percentage movement up or down after adjustment? It would be interesting to see who makes the biggest jump.
I'm sure he can do that, but that begs the question: If you go from -10 to +30, what percentage did you go up?
If there isn't another solution, that problem could be solved by marking the worst ever +/- rating as a 0 point. (Or actually, it should be 1 to avoid dividing by zero but let's just make it easier and mark it 0). That way there would be no minus ratings. Similar to the Kelvin scale.
So: let's pretend the worst ever +/- rating anyone has ever had was -50. Then if player A's rating right now is 0, his rating translates to 50.
If A's adjusted +/- rating is 30, it translates to 80 in the new scale (30-(-50)=30+50=80).
In the example, the player A had a percentual rise of (80-50)/50=60%.
Make me feel stupid. Tell me what the problem is in the system presented above.
Maybe I'm just missing it on one of those many stat columns, but could you list the players who have the biggest percentage movement up or down after adjustment? It would be interesting to see who makes the biggest jump.
I did a sort by Expected Plus-Minus (XEV+/-), which shows the difference between unadjusted +/- and adjusted +/-. Basically, expected plus-minus tries to answer the question "What would an average player's plus-minus be in this situation?" Here are the top 20 and bottom 20 in XEV+/-.
I also added a column on the right, which is expected plus-minus per season. This should come pretty close to the largest percentage movement. Actually what it should show is who has the worst teammates per season and who has the best teammates per season. Notice Bob Stewart, the subject of a recent thread, appears on here.
Player
SFrac
ESGF/G
ESGA/G
R-ON
R-OFF
XEV+/-
EV+/-
AdjEV+/-
XEV+/-/S
Serge Savard
13.2
1.28
0.89
1.46
1.52
366
424
58
28
Guy Lapointe
11.15
1.23
0.87
1.42
1.63
360
324
-36
32
Larry Robinson
17.34
1.31
0.82
1.6
1.33
331
697
366
19
Dallas Smith
9.93
1.39
1
1.39
1.45
268
314
46
27
Paul Coffey
17.79
1.28
1.04
1.23
1.2
238
356
117
13
Jacques Lemaire
10.91
1.06
0.63
1.68
1.53
233
381
148
21
Wayne Cashman
13.01
0.96
0.66
1.47
1.41
227
321
94
17
Guy Lafleur
14.14
1.07
0.64
1.69
1.31
222
496
274
16
Scott Stevens
20.53
1.13
0.86
1.31
1.19
213
442
229
10
Bob Gainey
14.52
0.62
0.5
1.23
1.53
202
140
-62
14
Nicklas Lidstrom
15.62
1.19
0.84
1.41
1.23
199
452
253
13
Don Awrey
10.78
1.12
0.99
1.13
1.3
198
119
-79
18
Steve Shutt
11.66
0.95
0.52
1.82
1.43
195
407
211
17
Yvan Cournoyer
9.92
0.98
0.6
1.64
1.53
194
310
116
20
Bill Barber
11.33
0.84
0.53
1.59
1.5
187
294
107
17
Phil Esposito
13.36
1.15
0.92
1.26
1.22
183
260
76
14
Chris Chelios
20.25
1
0.78
1.28
1.2
183
364
180
9
Eric Desjardins
14.33
1.03
0.81
1.26
1.26
181
257
76
13
John Bucyk
10.08
0.87
0.64
1.38
1.49
181
196
15
18
Yvon Lambert
8.56
0.74
0.52
1.41
1.7
175
151
-25
20
Keith Tkachuk
13.24
0.9
0.79
1.15
0.86
-120
120
240
-9
Jack Lynch
4.81
0.73
1.21
0.61
0.68
-121
-189
-68
-25
Wilf Paiement
11.83
0.75
0.88
0.86
0.83
-123
-123
0
-10
Mike Christie
5.15
0.88
1.12
0.79
0.67
-123
-100
23
-24
Ron Francis
21.68
0.86
0.78
1.11
0.89
-123
166
290
-6
Dennis Hextall
8.66
0.77
0.94
0.82
0.79
-124
-122
2
-14
Vincent Lecavalier
8.66
0.9
0.99
0.91
0.77
-124
-65
59
-14
Teemu Selanne
13.36
0.95
0.76
1.24
0.87
-124
211
335
-9
Bryan Watson
9.12
0.78
0.96
0.81
0.77
-128
-131
-3
-14
Brent A Hughes
5.63
0.88
1.16
0.78
0.7
-129
-124
5
-23
Mario Lemieux
11.29
1.3
1.07
1.2
0.85
-130
204
334
-12
Bob Stewart
7.23
0.84
1.29
0.65
0.76
-137
-271
-135
-19
Guy Charron
9.26
0.66
0.86
0.78
0.75
-144
-158
-14
-16
Reed Larson
11.3
0.99
1.1
0.9
0.82
-146
-100
45
-13
Ron Stackhouse
11.21
1.12
1.07
1.05
0.83
-147
47
194
-13
Yvon Labre
4.65
0.73
0.98
0.74
0.58
-149
-98
51
-32
Walt Mckechnie
12.07
0.61
0.72
0.85
0.73
-176
-107
70
-15
Gary Croteau
8.65
0.56
0.87
0.65
0.61
-184
-218
-34
-21
Borje Salming
14.37
1.17
1.02
1.15
0.82
-194
172
366
-13
Marcel Dionne
16.92
0.93
0.84
1.11
0.81
-210
127
336
-12
Last edited by overpass: 01-12-2009 at 08:24 PM.
Reason: Noticed that a couple of columns had been mistakenly switched - hope nobody was looking at them.
Very interesting. Nice to see how Francis places far above Hawerchuk and Oates, who tend to be heralded as his equals around here.
Take it with a grain of salt. John Leclair and Dave Taylor both finished above Francis, Taylor by a large amount, and neither of those players remotely come close to being as good as Oates or Hawerchuk or Gilmour or Francis, etc
Not sure why Gordie Howe didn't get a * but he should get one.
Am I the only one who finds it astounding that Mr. Hockey is 98th on the list? His ages were 39-42 and 51 during the seasons taken into account, yet he finished with an average adjusted season rating of +29. He wasn't exactly on great teams for those years either, making the playoffs only once in Detroit (in a 12 team league) and once at 51 with Hartford. These pretty much incorporat his worst statistical scoring seasons as well. Am I completely off-base to think that he'd be far atop this list if we had his numbers, especially during his prime? I think his average adjusted season could rival or exceed that of even Orr.
Last edited by FissionFire: 01-07-2009 at 12:55 PM.
Take it with a grain of salt. John Leclair and Dave Taylor both finished above Francis, Taylor by a large amount, and neither of those players remotely come close to being as good as Oates or Hawerchuk or Gilmour or Francis, etc
For those specific players, I'd take it with a grain of salt named Eric Lindros or Marcel Dionne.
Yeah, every stat needs to be interpreted, and this one does have some funny results (I'm not sure what to make of Dmitri Khristich or Joe Reekie in the top 50.) But I do think it's far better than unadjusted plus-minus, as the Francis example shows.
Quote:
Originally Posted by FissionFire
Not sure why Gordie Howe didn't get a * but he should get one.
Am I the only one who finds it astounding that Mr. Hockey is 98th on the list? His ages were 39-42 and 51 during the seasons taken into account, yet he finished with an average adjusted season rating of +29. He wasn't exactly on great teams for those years either, making the playoffs only once in Detroit (in a 12 team league) and once at 51 with Hartford. Am I completely off-base to think that he'd be far atop this list if we had his numbers, especially during his prime? I think his average adjusted season could rival or exceed that of even Orr.
I do think it's pretty amazing that Howe is so high on the list. As a general rule, players tend to become less effective at even-strength as they age, even if the power play skills remain. The body just breaks down and they can't win all the puck battles anymore. See Wayne Gretzky for a perfect example. The fact that Howe was an elite player by this measure at age 40 is crazy, I can't think of any other comparable player. I do think he would be at the top of this list if we had his numbers.
That said, he was playing on a stacked line for a couple of years there with Alex Delvecchio and maybe most importantly, a prime Frank Mahovlich. Those were also the years just after expansion, so it may have been easier to dominate, although I'm not sure that's a factor in these numbers.
I really can't see him matching Orr on a per-season basis, however. Orr was just on another level from everyone.
Edit: I'll add a few numbers here. From 1969-1971, Mahovlich had an adjusted +/- of +113 in Detroit. From 1969-1971, Howe was +104 and Delvecchio +88 with the same numbers. I think Mahovlich may deserve as much credit as Howe for these numbers, although maybe only someone who saw them play could say for sure.
I also added Howe's * in the table, good catch, thanks.
That's possible, although Howe did lead the Wings in scoring by a fair clip in 1968 without Mahovlich, and only Howie Young has a better unadjusted +/- on the team (and that team included Norm Ullman most of the year). In 1971 Howe was also finally breaking down some and retired after the season because of severe arthritis in his wrists that limited him all year. In 1970 Howe had a better +/- than Mahovlich by a decent margin as well. How was also still playing on the PK despite being 41. I'm sure Mahovlich had an impact, but I don't see him as the reason Howe's +/- relative to the team would be inflated.
As far as his prime +/- I think it would be much higher than you assume. Take 1952-53 for example. The team had 222GF and 133GA, a +89 margin. Howe finished that season with 95 points. He was on a stacked line there as well. I don't think it's outside the realm of reason to assume that his +/- that season was extremely high, even in relation to his teammates. Nobody on his team finished withing 24 points of him, leading me to believe he was double or triple shifted quite a bit that season (or he was scoring a ridiculous amount of unassisted goals). Sadly there will likely never be a way to know for sure, but I'd bet his adjusted +/- per season through his prime and even mid 30s was far higher than you might expect.
