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The Calvin Johnson Experiment

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08-22-2012, 08:46 PM
  #1
JohnEDrama
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The Calvin Johnson Experiment

I've read that people are actually taking him #1 overall which is absurd, but his ADP is currently #5.

I'm in a 10 team, 1/2 pt PPR league, picking #7 OA, and I think the picks before mine will be some order of Foster/McCoy/Rice and Rodgers/Brady/Brees.

Normally you would go with another RB, but the next tier is all question marks with CJ/McFadden/Forte/AP/MJD...And i don't want my first pick to be a huge concern.

I guess i'm trying to talk myself out of Megatron due to the depth at WR and how thin it gets even after the questionable 2nd tier.


Any suggestions?

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08-22-2012, 08:51 PM
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Diskothek
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I'd do it. I just had the 5th pick in my league and would've gone with him if a high end RB didn't end up being there for me.

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Old
08-22-2012, 09:16 PM
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Morozov
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At that position, with those 6 guys you named gone, Megatron is a more than reasonable option imo. Whole lot of question marks amongst those other RB's you named.

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08-22-2012, 09:54 PM
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ShadowDuck
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Beware of the madden curse.

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Old
08-23-2012, 08:14 AM
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Snipeshow
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ShadowDuck View Post
Beware of the madden curse.
As silly as it sounds, this curse is like clockwork. It's crazy, but it's legit even for star players. Megatron will have a great season, but I would not be surprised if, by the standards we expect from him, he has a down season and is the #3-5 best WR as opposed to #1. Still elite, just not the best.

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08-23-2012, 11:44 AM
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Hammettf2b
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first things first, if you think Megatron will have the same numbers as last year ur gonna be very disappointed. you talk about certain RBs have question marks, its the NFL, EVERYONE has question marks. Everyone has the chance to get hurt, including Megatron. Have you forgotten about Megatrons injury woes??? dont get me wrong, Megatron is a great pick, just not in the 1st round IMHO. i would go with a RB as the WR position is very deep this year. i cant see myself ever taking a WR in the first round. the RB position is very scarce these days, if you dont get one in the 1st round ur looking at drafting guys in their decline and backups.

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Old
08-23-2012, 01:01 PM
  #7
Shape
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Doubt Megatron will even make it to you.

And why does Forte have question marks? He's a ppr dream boat.

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08-23-2012, 01:18 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Snipeshow View Post
As silly as it sounds, this curse is like clockwork
Brees had a great season in '10. Hearst and George also come to mind. Clocks can break.

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08-23-2012, 01:24 PM
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ShadowDuck
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shape View Post
Doubt Megatron will even make it to you.

And why does Forte have question marks? He's a ppr dream boat.
I would say Forte is a question because of Michael Bush, he's going to steal a lot of production imo.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shape View Post
Brees had a great season in '10. Hearst and George also come to mind. Clocks can break.
To be nitpicky, the Saints lost to the 7-9 Seahawks in the first round of the playoffs. I would say Brees would be the only exception but he still had "curse" signs that year. (20+ ints and playoff loss)

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08-23-2012, 02:31 PM
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Shape
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ShadowDuck View Post
I would say Forte is a question because of Michael Bush, he's going to steal a lot of production imo.
He'll get some short yardage and goal line work. Big woop. Forte wasn't a TD machine before this year already. Plus Chicago just paid him. They are going to use him plenty.

I do love that sentiments like yours have pushed his ADP down. I will gladly take him in round 2.

And I'll just ignore your other statement, as you said, you're nitpicking.

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Old
08-23-2012, 03:06 PM
  #11
Reality Check
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Originally Posted by JohnEDrama View Post

I'm in a 10 team, 1/2 pt PPR league, picking #7 OA, and I think the picks before mine will be some order of Foster/McCoy/Rice and Rodgers/Brady/Brees.
If all those guys go as planned, I'd take Megatron at 7.

WR core is deep...but the NFL is a passing league now and RB don't have as much value anymore.

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08-23-2012, 03:24 PM
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Blackhawkswincup
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shape View Post
He'll get some short yardage and goal line work. Big woop. Forte wasn't a TD machine before this year already. Plus Chicago just paid him. They are going to use him plenty. .
Probably will see his produciton overall drop in both rushing and receiving

Bush will take some of his touches away in running plays and the additions of Brandon Marshall and drafting of Alshon Jeffries will decrease Forte's role in Bears passing game (Since they now have legit WR group)

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Old
08-23-2012, 04:16 PM
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JohnEDrama
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Diskothek View Post
I'd do it. I just had the 5th pick in my league and would've gone with him if a high end RB didn't end up being there for me.
Yeah, i agree, that would be ideal, but theres no way will be one dropping to 7.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Morozov View Post
At that position, with those 6 guys you named gone, Megatron is a more than reasonable option imo. Whole lot of question marks amongst those other RB's you named.
Yup im starting to lean that way as well.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ShadowDuck View Post
Beware of the madden curse.
No doubt there is ample documentation, but there are players who werent affected.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammettf2b View Post
first things first, if you think Megatron will have the same numbers as last year ur gonna be very disappointed. you talk about certain RBs have question marks, its the NFL, EVERYONE has question marks. Everyone has the chance to get hurt, including Megatron. Have you forgotten about Megatrons injury woes??? dont get me wrong, Megatron is a great pick, just not in the 1st round IMHO. i would go with a RB as the WR position is very deep this year. i cant see myself ever taking a WR in the first round. the RB position is very scarce these days, if you dont get one in the 1st round ur looking at drafting guys in their decline and backups.
You see thats just it, I am well aware its very scarce. But you dont want your first round pick to be a guy like McFadden. I had him last year. He was unreal until he got hurt. If he played a whole season he could be MVP, but he always gets hurt.

And yes this is the NFL and everyone is one hit away, but the guys that are injury prone and even more risky just because of that.

Im not expecting his numbers from last year, but I dont think it will be a drastic drop off. Im too lazy to look it up, but I believe Detroit throws the ball more than any other team in the NFL, so he will absolutely get his opportunities. And if Titus Young develops, they may be forced to limit the amount of time hes doubled.

As for Megatron being injury prone... hes missed 4 games in 5 years i believe... You would have a point if you mentioned Stafford's injury history because this was his first full year healthy I believe.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Shape View Post
Doubt Megatron will even make it to you.

And why does Forte have question marks? He's a ppr dream boat.
Ive seen scenarios where he doesnt, and that would be fine by me. But i just think i am preparing for the most likely scenario.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Reality Check View Post
If all those guys go as planned, I'd take Megatron at 7.

WR core is deep...but the NFL is a passing league now and RB don't have as much value anymore.
Yea and not to mention there arent many workhorses, most of them split carries.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Blackhawkswincup View Post
Probably will see his produciton overall drop in both rushing and receiving

Bush will take some of his touches away in running plays and the additions of Brandon Marshall and drafting of Alshon Jeffries will decrease Forte's role in Bears passing game (Since they now have legit WR group)
Pretty much exactly what I was thinking about Fotre. I would take him with my second pick though, he was a beast last year.

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08-23-2012, 05:55 PM
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mouser
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blackhawkswincup View Post
Probably will see his produciton overall drop in both rushing and receiving

Bush will take some of his touches away in running plays and the additions of Brandon Marshall and drafting of Alshon Jeffries will decrease Forte's role in Bears passing game (Since they now have legit WR group)
Not to mention Bush has been the more effective short yardage rusher, likely to steal many of the goal line carry opportunities.

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08-23-2012, 08:01 PM
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BGDDYKWL
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Originally Posted by JohnEDrama View Post
I guess i'm trying to talk myself out of Megatron due to the depth at WR and how thin it gets even after the questionable 2nd tier.
I know Calvin's in a tier by himself, but I'd take Chris Johnson there if I were you. The WR depth this year is ridiculous. You can grab a guy like Dwayne Bowe in like the 7th round. There are so few clear number one RBs that if you don't take one in the first round you're looking at a Lynch/Steven Jackson as your number one, and a guy like Bradshaw or Doug Martin as your number 2. Every receiver but Calvin, Fitz, and Julio is still on the board there. First pick I'd consider Calvin is 8.

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Old
08-26-2012, 09:16 PM
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ReverendAlBundy
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Had him on my team last year, and he ended up totalling the most points for me when all was said and done; As a result I have him number one on my pre-draft ranking (stupid auto-draft).

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08-27-2012, 06:36 PM
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JohnEDrama
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Not to mention Bush has been the more effective short yardage rusher, likely to steal many of the goal line carry opportunities.
Yup, he had 12 goal line carries last year, and didn't score on any. On the flip side Michael Bush scored on 7 of his 20 goal line carries, so he will absolutely be getting those carries from Forte.

But that really doesnt matter because Forte put up those numbers despite his inability to convert on them.

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Old
08-27-2012, 07:16 PM
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BGDDYKWL
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Originally Posted by ReverendAlBundy View Post
Had him on my team last year, and he ended up totalling the most points for me when all was said and done; As a result I have him number one on my pre-draft ranking (stupid auto-draft).
I just can't justify him as a number one pick. I have Foster, Rice, McCoy, Rodgers, Brady, and Chris Johnson all ahead of him, and I could see the argument for Brees as well. WR is just too deep this year. And I know he's a phenomenal talent, but I don't think anyone has ever put up a year like that and then duplicated it the next. He goes right where he should IMO around 7/8/9. That being said, can't go wrong with Al Bundy and the Cryptkeeper.

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Old
08-27-2012, 10:03 PM
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ReverendAlBundy
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Meh, didnt end up drafting him. Oh well, the QB/TE combo of brees and Gronk more than make up for the loss.

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