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I think it is going to come down to tthe Canucks keeping Luongo until they know for sure that Cory Schneider actually is as good as management thinks he is. After that they will actively try to trade one of the two. Likely compensation that will get Gillis to move either of the goalies will be:
1. A young roster player with good upside
2. An excellant to blue chip prospect
3. A conditional 2013 first round pick (if that pick turns out to be a top 5 pick, then the Canucks get that team's 2013 second round pick plus the team's next own first round pick that isn't a top a top 5 pick)
Most likely trading partner (some have #1 goalies but have high risk of not panning out):
a) Columbus
b) Toronto
c) Florida
d) NYI
e) New Jersy
f) Tampa Bay
g) Phoenix
h) Annihiem
i) Chicago
j) San Jose
k) Edmonton
Examples I could envision (not a killing for Luongo, but not a give away either):
To Vancouver: Ryan Johansen, Cody Goloubef, Columbus' 2013 first round pick (conditional)
To Columbus: Roberto Luongo, Bill Sweatt, Anton Rodin
or
To Vancouver: Nazim Kadri, Joe Colborne, Toronto's 2013 first round pick (conditional)
To Toronto: Roberto Luongo, Maxim Lapierre, Alex Friesen
I don't know much about Schroeder but "NHL ready" doesn't necessarily mean a 2LC or 3LC slot and that's what the Hawks would need if Bolland left.
I don't know for sure about Canuck fans and Lou but I have been on the CDC many times reading the Lou threads and well let's call it a 50/50 split on Lou.
Really though, as a few have mentioned on this thread I can't see the Hawks and Canucks doing a deal as they are just to close to the 3 consecutive playoff meetings and all the rivalry etc. I mean can a Canuck fan embrace Bolland what with the " Sisters " comments and all?!
With Lou I will always see him post game after game 6 in Chicago after the 7 goals against. These memories will never go away!
No offense but are we all children? So what Bolland called the Sedins sisters. My immediate concern is winning and pursuing whatever viable option that improves our chances to do precisely that. I would certainly hope the players feel the same way. Bolland is an excellent third line center and would solidify a dominate depth line with Higgins and Hansen. I couldn't give a damn about his little name calling because he makes us better.
To the poster above. No interest in moving Lapierre. Either swap him out for a prospect or pick otherwise rearrange the trade; strictly subjectively speaking of course.
a) Columbus - Possibly if Lou is willing to waive to go there. Don't see why he would though.
b) Toronto - Possible
c) Florida - Possible
d) NYI - I'm sure Wang would love to have another expensive goalie signed forever.
e) New Jersy - Just resigned Marty for 2 years and there is no chance that they would ask Marty to play second fiddle to Lou
f) Tampa Bay
g) Phoenix - Still doesn't have an Owner and Smith is still under contract. Not a fit at all.
h) Annihiem - Hiller has struggled, but I don't see how a budget team that is already paying Hiller more than 4 mil for 2 more years being interested. Especially when they need cash to resign Getzlaf and Perry. Again not at all a fit (And it's spelled Anaheim)
i) Chicago - Possible, but I don't see Bowman giving up anything of real value
j) San Jose - Niemi is signed for 3 more years at 3.8 per. Not a fit.
k) Edmonton - Why would a team that is still rebuilding trade for an aging goalie who won't be around when they are ready to compete? Not a fit.
You seem to be extremely optimistic.
EDIT: Forgot about Tampa Bay, Yzerman has said that he is not at all interested in making a move for an aging goalie.
The rest of us are trying to explain that Luongo has less value than his skill would otherwise dictate due to:
a) the circumstance of the situation (trade request from a player with a contract that contains a NMC almost always result in trades that see NMC players go for less than their skill value would dictate, regardless of how amicable the relationship seems at the moment) b) the fact that since the lockout, goalies tend to have less trade value than position players c) the fact that there is significant precedent to support both claim A and B. d) the length and cap hit of his contract weighed against the uncertainty of what the new CBA will hold (whenever it gets resolved). This last point is a guess, as we haven't seen any players over 30 with "long term cap circumvention"-style deals (long term deals, front loaded with salary and back-loaded with hyper-declining salaries) dealt yet, although most people seem to agree that the contract does present a hurdle in trade talks, and would hurt value.
good post
thats why i think you'll see Luo w Vancouver for a while yet
im glad Gillis is holding firm at high value return though
vokoun 2 mill. one year deal. nothing like luongo's contract!!!! you can take florida off the list unless it's for schnider. also luongo wouldn't waive his ntc clause for most of those teams. you guys soooo overrate luongo's value!!!!!!
vokoun 2 mill. one year deal. nothing like luongo's contract!!!! you can take florida off the list unless it's for schnider. also luongo wouldn't waive his ntc clause for most of those teams. you guys soooo overrate luongo's value!!!!!!
Tallon has already expressed interest in Luongo!!!! The only question is how much he's willing to give!!!!
And sorry if we overvalue a top 5 goalie in the NHL, they're soooo easy to come by, right?
vokoun 2 mill. one year deal. nothing like luongo's contract!!!! you can take florida off the list unless it's for schnider. also luongo wouldn't waive his ntc clause for most of those teams. you guys soooo overrate luongo's value!!!!!!
I would be expect that if the Cap goes down with the new CBA, the players will take another across-the-board pay cut.
current Cap, yes
Cap with the new CBA, doubtfull
looks like your team will be 2 million over the next cap
Quote:
Originally Posted by ThirdManIn
If the new CBA reduces the cap will existing contracts not be rolled back to reflect that?
no, not really and not needed. If they only take the players share of the revenues down it's not needed
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourne Endeavor
They would have to be otherwise it would be a catastrophe for numerous teams. The proposal from the owns indicated a cap of $50.4m or thereabouts. Vancouver is presently at $67.7m. Even dumping Luongo, Ballard and Booth for nothing would still not reduce us enough. In addition, it would force us to watch Edler and Burrows walk. I cannot imagine the league expects teams would decimate their rosters like this.
numerous teams? Cap will end up around 65.5 million...
5 teams would be over the Cap. 3 of them easily would be under that Cap number.
I don't see any teams need being great enough to provide Vancouver with any leverage in this situation. I think being saddled with that much money in goal us far less than ideal compared to going into the season with Crawford or reimer
I don't see any teams need being great enough to provide Vancouver with any leverage in this situation. I think being saddled with that much money in goal us far less than ideal compared to going into the season with Crawford or reimer
I think its easy to be comfortable with a goalie who might not be up to snuff in the offseason because in the offseason everyone projects their guys playing up to their potential.
If any of Lindback, Reimer + Scrivens, Crawford, Theodore (less likely), Brodeur (age is an interesting thing - ask Roloson), and to a certain extent Babrovski (CBJ expectation are low) start the year stiking it up (i.e. 0.900 save%) and their teams are consistently losing games despite expecting to be competitive, then you will see more urgency to acquire a replacement to save the season (and potentially a job in some cases).
People praise Steve Yzerman as a GM around here but to me he's basically wasted a contending lineup last year because he couldn't get a goalie and now it looks like Martin St Louis is starting to slow down, so their window might be closing...if their goaltending is terrible again this year, that guy should be fired for wasting the end of his team's time as a contender (...MSL is a tough guy to replace and Stamkos can't get it done by himself).
As a Canucks fan, I realize there's a chance Schneider could be the guy who sees a drop in performance as a result of his new role, and that's why I'd rather keep Luongo than dead cap space. I have faith in Schneider so if it came down to trading Luongo for something that we really need, then I'd do it, otherwise, why bother?
I think its easy to be comfortable with a goalie who might not be up to snuff in the offseason because in the offseason everyone projects their guys playing up to their potential.
If any of Lindback, Reimer + Scrivens, Crawford, Theodore (less likely), Brodeur (age is an interesting thing - ask Roloson), and to a certain extent Babrovski (CBJ expectation are low) start the year stiking it up (i.e. 0.900 save%) and their teams are consistently losing games despite expecting to be competitive, then you will see more urgency to acquire a replacement to save the season (and potentially a job in some cases).
People praise Steve Yzerman as a GM around here but to me he's basically wasted a contending lineup last year because he couldn't get a goalie and now it looks like Martin St Louis is starting to slow down, so their window might be closing...if their goaltending is terrible again this year, that guy should be fired for wasting the end of his team's time as a contender (...MSL is a tough guy to replace and Stamkos can't get it done by himself).
As a Canucks fan, I realize there's a chance Schneider could be the guy who sees a drop in performance as a result of his new role, and that's why I'd rather keep Luongo than dead cap space. I have faith in Schneider so if it came down to trading Luongo for something that we really need, then I'd do it, otherwise, why bother?
You had me until you mentioned the Lightning as contenders with better goaltending.
I think even their own fans would not say so lol. Did you see their defense last year? Anyone blaming their failure solely on goaltending probably did not watch them last year. The Lightning will be better this year and Lindback wont be the reason, its because they finally have a defense that is NHL caliber. I think someone might just be a little bitter that Steve Yzerman decided that he wanted a goalie who was not 32 years old and not signed to a 10 year contract.
You had me until you mentioned the Lightning as contenders with better goaltending.
I think even their own fans would not say so lol. Did you see their defense last year? Anyone blaming their failure solely on goaltending probably did not watch them last year. The Lightning will be better this year and Lindback wont be the reason, its because they finally have a defense that is NHL caliber. I think someone might just be a little bitter that Steve Yzerman decided that he wanted a goalie who was not 32 years old and not signed to a 10 year contract.
Personally I was really hoping something could have been worked out around Schneider and Connolly.
I think its easy to be comfortable with a goalie who might not be up to snuff in the offseason because in the offseason everyone projects their guys playing up to their potential.
If any of Lindback, Reimer + Scrivens, Crawford, Theodore (less likely), Brodeur (age is an interesting thing - ask Roloson), and to a certain extent Babrovski (CBJ expectation are low) start the year stiking it up (i.e. 0.900 save%) and their teams are consistently losing games despite expecting to be competitive, then you will see more urgency to acquire a replacement to save the season (and potentially a job in some cases).
People praise Steve Yzerman as a GM around here but to me he's basically wasted a contending lineup last year because he couldn't get a goalie and now it looks like Martin St Louis is starting to slow down, so their window might be closing...if their goaltending is terrible again this year, that guy should be fired for wasting the end of his team's time as a contender (...MSL is a tough guy to replace and Stamkos can't get it done by himself).
As a Canucks fan, I realize there's a chance Schneider could be the guy who sees a drop in performance as a result of his new role, and that's why I'd rather keep Luongo than dead cap space. I have faith in Schneider so if it came down to trading Luongo for something that we really need, then I'd do it, otherwise, why bother?
This is a fallacy.
Teams aren't going to all of a sudden forget about his contract and willingly give up their leverage because they're 9th in the standings in February. If anything, the market will warm up to the idea of Luongo again and similar offers of what you saw this summer will be on the table. Either Gillis comes back down to earth or he freezes and stalemates the entire deal similar to what he did this summer.
Gillis is the one with waning leverage. The fact of the matter is Luongo has to be moved eventually. Whether Luongo blows up/becomes a big problem in the locker room/whatever, or because of cap implications by the new CBA, or as far as ruining any chances of deadline deals due to lack of cap space. Gillis is the one on the clock, not any of the other teams.
He might be fine taking him into training camp (Despite many people thinking this is a bad idea), what about taking him past December? What about taking him past the trade deadline? Or into the 2013 free agency period?
Gillis is the one with waning leverage. The fact of the matter is Luongo has to be moved eventually. Whether Luongo blows up/becomes a big problem in the locker room/whatever, or because of cap implications by the new CBA, or as far as ruining any chances of deadline deals due to lack of cap space. Gillis is the one on the clock, not any of the other teams.
Gillis job is secure and his team is really good, I fail to see how he is under more pressure than a GM with a team that has to make the playoffs or show improvement to keep their job.
Gillis job is secure and his team is really good, I fail to see how he is under more pressure than a GM with a team that has to make the playoffs or show improvement to keep their job.
Because you're raising a strawman argument that holds no basis in reality. I could've said the same things about Souray. "Oh, don't worry. Some team will lose a defenseman down the line and be desperate enough to take him". "Oh don't worry, the deadline will pressure the 10th-9th teams into beefing up their blue line".
Trades also have to be approved by the owners. If they don't care for his contract and asking price now, what makes you think they'd approve the trade from a GM making stupid moves to save his own ass? Cuz they would lose playoff revenue?
"Looks like we'll miss that 4M playoff revenue this year. Time to trade for 6.5M/year Luongo".
Because you're raising a strawman argument that holds no basis in reality. I could've said the same things about Souray. "Oh, don't worry. Some team will lose a defenseman down the line and be desperate enough to take him". "Oh don't worry, the deadline will pressure the 10th-9th teams into beefing up their blue line".
Trades also have to be approved by the owners. If they don't care for his contract and asking price now, what makes you think they'd approve the trade from a GM making stupid moves to save his own ass? Cuz they would lose playoff revenue?
"Looks like we'll miss that 4M playoff revenue this year. Time to trade for 6.5M/year Luongo".
Because Owners also want their team to do well...Not to mention publicity/Jersey sales/etc. from having Luongo on the team.
To all those saying Gillis is definitely going to gain something by keeping Luongo.
It is wrong to simply assume that Luongo will be the only one available mid season, the market for goalies may not be stagnant. The basic rule of business is if demand is high, then the supply will rise to meet that demand. Luongo might not be the only one shopped around that time.
Lets use a hypothetical situation with the Blues who have two capable net minders, if Halak stays healthy and stays on his game then the Blues might shop Eliott around to gauge interest and look for a deal that can shore up weaknesses elsewhere. This is just an example, any one of the 29 teams may look for a shake up in between the pipes. Luongo is not the only goalie in the league who will be available for the right price.
I could've said the same things about Souray. "Oh, don't worry. Some team will lose a defenseman down the line and be desperate enough to take him". "Oh don't worry, the deadline will pressure the 10th-9th teams into beefing up their blue line".
How can we have a serious discussion when you're comparing Souray to Luongo?
A GM on the hot seat traded for a similar contract last offseason and won the stanley cup. I believe your arguments to be "straw man" more so than pointing out that GM's don't always have forever to wait.
Cuz they would lose playoff revenue? 
