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An idea for assessing goalies

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09-03-2012, 10:48 PM
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Zombie Mike Murphy
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An idea for assessing goalies

So, I had an idea come to me today, that I thought I'd bounce off the mob. This is purely a thought exercise as it would take _serious_ resources to compute this for even a subset of a single season.

The idea is fairly simple - instead of looking at a goalie's SV%, a number which while easy to compute, is also poorly isolated, you look at how he handles specific shots vs the other goalies in the league.

So, each shot taken that the goalie played will go into a bucket - ideally, a single bucket should represent a specific type of shot - one timer, slapper, deflection, whatever - taken from a small region of the ice - 1 yard squares maybe.

The idea is to neutralize for the differing shot selections faced by goalies behind good and bad defenses.

Does this approach have any merit? Has a study along these lines ever been tried?

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09-03-2012, 11:41 PM
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metalfoot
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Seems like an interesting idea, but how will you generate the necessary data for analysis?

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09-04-2012, 12:04 AM
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Zombie Mike Murphy
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Yea, that's the rub.

if there was some way to get the X/Y location and shot types from the NHL.com replays that might be a start.

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09-04-2012, 04:59 AM
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NHL Teams

Quote:
Originally Posted by Troll Ward View Post
So, I had an idea come to me today, that I thought I'd bounce off the mob. This is purely a thought exercise as it would take _serious_ resources to compute this for even a subset of a single season.

The idea is fairly simple - instead of looking at a goalie's SV%, a number which while easy to compute, is also poorly isolated, you look at how he handles specific shots vs the other goalies in the league.

So, each shot taken that the goalie played will go into a bucket - ideally, a single bucket should represent a specific type of shot - one timer, slapper, deflection, whatever - taken from a small region of the ice - 1 yard squares maybe.

The idea is to neutralize for the differing shot selections faced by goalies behind good and bad defenses.

Does this approach have any merit? Has a study along these lines ever been tried?
NHL teams use a similar approach from game films etc. larger than 1' squares.

Journal de Montreal does an approximation with its game story of the Canadiens the last few years.

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09-05-2012, 11:03 AM
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seventieslord
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Troll Ward View Post
So, I had an idea come to me today, that I thought I'd bounce off the mob. This is purely a thought exercise as it would take _serious_ resources to compute this for even a subset of a single season.

The idea is fairly simple - instead of looking at a goalie's SV%, a number which while easy to compute, is also poorly isolated, you look at how he handles specific shots vs the other goalies in the league.

So, each shot taken that the goalie played will go into a bucket - ideally, a single bucket should represent a specific type of shot - one timer, slapper, deflection, whatever - taken from a small region of the ice - 1 yard squares maybe.

The idea is to neutralize for the differing shot selections faced by goalies behind good and bad defenses.

Does this approach have any merit? Has a study along these lines ever been tried?
This sounds an awful lot like shot quality adjusted save percentage.

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09-05-2012, 03:55 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
This sounds an awful lot like shot quality adjusted save percentage.
Though it can be seen that way as an overall measure, I think its real merit is in knowing a goalie's strengths and weaknesses.

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09-05-2012, 04:41 PM
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Wouldn't you also need to know the context of the shot, such as who was shooting, whether or not there was a screen, off a rebound, etc?

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09-05-2012, 08:40 PM
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Zombie Mike Murphy
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That would fall under type of shot. Who's shooting is probably going too far - don't want to be overly specific. Ideally, every starting goalie will face at least 20-30 shots from each "bucket".

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09-17-2012, 10:03 PM
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Jason MacIsaac
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Shotkeepers are far too inconsistent for this to work. ES SV% is what I look at.

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09-18-2012, 11:38 AM
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TheDevilMadeMe
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jason MacIsaac View Post
Shotkeepers are far too inconsistent for this to work. ES SV% is what I look at.
Wouldn't the inconsistency of shopkeepers also affect save percentage?

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09-18-2012, 12:31 PM
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Jason MacIsaac
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Wouldn't the inconsistency of shopkeepers also affect save percentage?
Not as much seeing that shots will be counted as one large group instead of position and type oriented.

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