HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > NHL Western Conference > Central Division > Winnipeg Jets
Notices

Can the Jets be the Avalanche of last year?

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old
Yesterday, 11:32 AM
  #1
WinnipegWinter
Registered User
 
WinnipegWinter's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Winnipeg
Country: Canada
Posts: 375
vCash: 500
Can the Jets be the Avalanche of last year?

Nearly every expert had the Colorado Avalanche finishing last place in the Central Division last year. This is why:

1. Questions about coaching
2. Questions about whether young talent would produce
3. Questions surrounding starting goaltending
4. Questions about leadership - can Gabriel Landeskog have an impact

I feel like we are in a similar position to the 2013 Colorado Avalanche -- too many question marks to get any respect, but no one is denying the potential talent in our lineup. If Pavelec proves us wrong and has a career year, and we answer the questions like the Avalanche did last year, what chances do you give the Winnipeg Jets to have a similar year?

WinnipegWinter is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
Yesterday, 11:37 AM
  #2
Romang67
BitterSwede
 
Romang67's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Illinois
Country: Sweden
Posts: 9,167
vCash: 545
Colorado had a great season mostly because of unsustainable sh% and incredible sv%. One of these things could happen to any team, including us.

The other... Well, it COULD happen.

Romang67 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
Yesterday, 11:42 AM
  #3
surixon
Registered User
 
surixon's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Winnipeg
Country: Canada
Posts: 4,045
vCash: 500
Doubtful unless you think Pavs is going to have a year for the ages...Not likely.

surixon is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
Yesterday, 11:43 AM
  #4
Bob E
Registered User
 
Bob E's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Winnerpeg
Posts: 3,084
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by WinnipegWinter View Post
Nearly every expert had the Colorado Avalanche finishing last place in the Central Division last year. This is why:

1. Questions about coaching
2. Questions about whether young talent would produce
3. Questions surrounding starting goaltending
4. Questions about leadership - can Gabriel Landeskog have an impact

I feel like we are in a similar position to the 2013 Colorado Avalanche -- too many question marks to get any respect, but no one is denying the potential talent in our lineup. If Pavelec proves us wrong and has a career year, and we answer the questions like the Avalanche did last year, what chances do you give the Winnipeg Jets to have a similar year?
Not much.

Avs had an 'under achieving' shortened season, and drafted 1st overall. We have, for the most part, performed to our capability, in many ways.

Lots of questions going into the season, but where the Avs should have been better, we may have had some guys 'over achieve', or at least may start to decline from previous levels. It will be increasingly difficult for Ladd, Wheels, Buff, Stu and Toby to perform and produce at their current levels as they age, in the near future, IMO. Basically, any bump from Scheifele, Troubs or Kane, may be offset by slight reductions from others. Avs had the advantage that their young guys are their biggest producers, and will get better. But losing Statzny is huge.

Edit: more likely the Avs return to be a 4th or 5th place team in the division, than the Jets finish 1st.

Bob E is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
Yesterday, 12:13 PM
  #5
JC Numminen
Moderator
Welcome to the club!
 
JC Numminen's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Westman
Country: Canada
Posts: 3,836
vCash: 59
Colorado had amazing goaltending, so unless we get a massive surprise in net this year, I would say it is very, very unlikely.

I cant see it. But you never know. I think this team will be better than some think next season.

JC Numminen is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
Yesterday, 12:18 PM
  #6
Mortimer Snerd
Rookie User
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Country: Canada
Posts: 921
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Romang67 View Post
Colorado had a great season mostly because of unsustainable sh% and incredible sv%. One of these things could happen to any team, including us.

The other... Well, it COULD happen.
What are the odds of both happening again in the same year to any one team?

Mortimer Snerd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
Yesterday, 12:20 PM
  #7
alchemyindex
easy is overdone
 
alchemyindex's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Winnipeg
Country: Canada
Posts: 1,077
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by JC Numminen View Post
Colorado had amazing goaltending, so unless we get a massive surprise in net this year, I would say it is very, very unlikely.

I cant see it. But you never know. I think this team will be better than some think next season.
Agreed.

I'm all for Hutch pulling a Varlamov season, but why give him the chance when we've got MVPavelec ready to go?

alchemyindex is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
Yesterday, 12:20 PM
  #8
jamiebez
Registered User
 
jamiebez's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Ottawa
Country: Canada
Posts: 3,347
vCash: 500
If Nathan McKinnon magically appears at training camp, we've got a shot. Otherwise, no.

Seriously, that 12/13 team had some key guys (Stastny, Varlamov, Erik Johnson) underachieve, relative to their career average. Plus, they got that "new coach" bump and a #1 overall pick to plug right in. They were due for a bounce-back, and probably overachieved to boot.

We have none of those things.

jamiebez is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
Yesterday, 12:21 PM
  #9
Romang67
BitterSwede
 
Romang67's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Illinois
Country: Sweden
Posts: 9,167
vCash: 545
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mortimer Snerd View Post
What are the odds of both happening again in the same year to any one team?
Well, the Leafs did it the season before. Can't remember before that, but I think Florida did the same thing.

__________________
Team Dunderhead
Romang67 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
Yesterday, 12:29 PM
  #10
sully1410
Registered User
 
sully1410's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Turner Valley, Alta.
Country: Canada
Posts: 7,111
vCash: 50
Florida squeaked in based on loser points.

I'd be surprised if that happened to us tbh, mostly because there is no way that Pavelec is going to be that good throughout the year and our team has nowhere near the offense weapons that the Avs did. their top end players are better then ours basically.

sully1410 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
Yesterday, 12:34 PM
  #11
buggs
Registered User
 
buggs's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: flatlands
Country: Canada
Posts: 1,698
vCash: 128
To the thread title: not a chance in hell.

We haven't underachieved in the sense the Avs did, thereby striking gold with a first round pick. We don't have that MacKinnon type player.

Pavs pulling a Varlamov? I guess it's possible, but I'm not holding my breath. I'm also not counting on Varlamov doing it again this season. I see the Avs regressing, largely based on Varlamov returning to normal (which is better than Pavs). They're a great offensive team (that lost Statsny and will lose O'Reilly following this season I'd guess) with a weak back end. I do think they're a playoff team. Probably.

buggs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
Yesterday, 12:51 PM
  #12
Romang67
BitterSwede
 
Romang67's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Illinois
Country: Sweden
Posts: 9,167
vCash: 545
Quote:
Originally Posted by sully1410 View Post
Florida squeaked in based on loser points.

I'd be surprised if that happened to us tbh, mostly because there is no way that Pavelec is going to be that good throughout the year and our team has nowhere near the offense weapons that the Avs did. their top end players are better then ours basically.
Yep, you're right. I remembered wrong, Florida wasn't riding hot goaltending or shooting.

Romang67 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
Yesterday, 01:02 PM
  #13
scelaton
Registered User
 
scelaton's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Country: Canada
Posts: 930
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by WinnipegWinter View Post
Nearly every expert had the Colorado Avalanche finishing last place in the Central Division last year. This is why:

1. Questions about coaching -Maurice better than Noel -> Add 4-6 points
2. Questions about whether young talent would produce healthy Scheifele and Bogo-> Add 4-6 points
3. Questions surrounding starting goaltending Hutchinson > 35 starts -> Add 4-6 points
4. Questions about leadership - can Gabriel Landeskog have an impact

I feel like we are in a similar position to the 2013 Colorado Avalanche -- too many question marks to get any respect, but no one is denying the potential talent in our lineup. If Pavelec proves us wrong and has a career year, and we answer the questions like the Avalanche did last year, what chances do you give the Winnipeg Jets to have a similar year?
The short answer is 'no', we are unlikely to skyrocket as the Avs did last year. However, it is not unreasonable to hope for improvement in the first 3 areas you listed (my hopeful predictions are in bold).
Even a team Save % in the top 25 would add points and if we can stay healthy (given that our depth is still dangerously shallow) we have a fighting chance for a playoff spot. And if we make it that far, it'll be just as good as having finished with 112 points.


Last edited by scelaton: Yesterday at 01:11 PM.
scelaton is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
Yesterday, 01:19 PM
  #14
Whileee
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 7,738
vCash: 500
I doubt that the Jets can make a big jump, mostly because it's a very tough Division and Conference.

However, I think that they can improve with the following conditions:

1) Full year of Maurice as coach.
2) Bump in save percentage (there's only one way for it to go, isn't there?)
3) Full year of "good Scheifele". He was quiet for the first 25 games, and then injured. I expect more contribution than last year.
4) Fewer injuries - the Jets don't have the depth to cope with the types of injuries they had last year (Bogo, Kane, Scheifele, Clitsome). You can't count on being healthy, but if the Jets are healthier next year they should improve.

Whileee is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
Yesterday, 02:13 PM
  #15
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
 
garret9's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 10,102
vCash: 50
Going to avoid "fancy stats" for fun...

Colorado was out shot for 5v5 when score was close (within 2 for 2st+2nd and tied for 3rd). They owned 48.3% of shots (that's 22nd in NHL).

However, Colorado 8.6% of shots in those situations (2nd in NHL) and saved 93.6% of shots, or you can think that their opponents shot at 6.4% (2nd in NHL). So they scored on 2.4% more shots then their opponents.

They have a really good top 6 forward core, so I'm sure they will stay above league average for sh%, but that high? Possible but unlikely. Probably not a huge dip though.

Varlamov is interesting though. He's a career .917 goalie, so he is an above average starter, but he's not very likely going to repeat a .927... basically did as good with including PK as he normally does if you exclude PK.


Jets 5v5 numbers for context were:
shots: 49.8% (17th)
sh%: 8.4% (5th)
sv%: 91.7% (23rd)


Last edited by garret9: Yesterday at 02:28 PM.
garret9 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
Yesterday, 02:30 PM
  #16
NBjet
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 126
vCash: 500
I may be wrong, but wasn't Scheifele's scoring pretty much on pace with MacKinnon's once he found his mojo 20 or so games in and before he was injured?

PoMo will be a difference maker undoubtably.

Our goaltending will be better (how could it not be?)

Our man days lost to injuries were amongst the highest in the league, so it's unlikely that lightning will strike twice in that regard.

And some of our worst players are gone... Yes, we will improve. The only question is by how much. The writing will be on the wall 20 games in.

I predict 12 and 8... ish...

NBjet is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
Yesterday, 02:36 PM
  #17
WinnipegWinter
Registered User
 
WinnipegWinter's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Winnipeg
Country: Canada
Posts: 375
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Going to avoid "fancy stats" for fun...

Jets 5v5 numbers for context were:
shots: 49.8% (17th)
sh%: 8.4% (5th)
sv%: 91.7% (23rd)
So you're saying there's a chance...

WinnipegWinter is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
Yesterday, 02:41 PM
  #18
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
 
garret9's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 10,102
vCash: 50
My best guess is Pavelec performs 0.903-0.906 instead of the 0.901 he had last season. That there should be some more points. Too lazy to actually calculate but I'll guess 2-3 wins.

I hope the Jets are more open to playing Hutch if he outplays Pavelec unlike with Montoya. That should be worth some points. Tough to guess value on this.

Jets dropped some of their worst possession players (but not their #1 worst). That might add up to a win.

Jets lost depth in defense for call ups but can always pick of the waiver wire if needed. Tough to determine how this will help/hurt.

Maurice improved Jets by about 2.5% in possession. That's probably (again no math just guessing and can be wrong) 2-3 wins.

garret9 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
Yesterday, 02:53 PM
  #19
YWGinYYZ
Global Moderator
 
YWGinYYZ's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Toronto
Country: Canada
Posts: 11,991
vCash: 200
garret: so best case scenario, you think 10-12 points, if everything goes right. That's 94-96 points - playoff territory, or right on the cusp.

YWGinYYZ is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
Yesterday, 03:04 PM
  #20
buggs
Registered User
 
buggs's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: flatlands
Country: Canada
Posts: 1,698
vCash: 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by YWGinYYZ View Post
garret: so best case scenario, you think 10-12 points, if everything goes right. That's 94-96 points - playoff territory, or right on the cusp.
Or picking 12th overall.

buggs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
Yesterday, 03:04 PM
  #21
Jet
Moderator
Chevel-takesadayoff
 
Jet's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: New Glasgow
Country: Scotland
Posts: 16,913
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Romang67 View Post
Colorado had a great season mostly because of unsustainable sh% and incredible sv%. One of these things could happen to any team, including us.

The other... Well, it COULD happen.
How did you say that with a straight face?

I'm with most here. I just don't see it, based on goaltending. I think with the group of players we have many are capable of having much better seasons: Kane, Byfuglien, Bogosian, Enstrom, Scheifele. Perrault will help.

However, if we get 60 games of Pavelec, we're sunk.

__________________
The Olympic Line
Jet is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
Yesterday, 03:22 PM
  #22
Aavco Cup
Registered User
 
Aavco Cup's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 3,155
vCash: 2149
How about the Colorado 2 (year) step. Significant injuries to thecore of the lineup cause a plummet in the standings and ultimately a lottery win. Add MacKinnon stay relatively healthy and improve your goaltending and rocket up the standings.

That's a more likely scenario than us raising a central banner oct 2015.

Aavco Cup is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
Yesterday, 03:25 PM
  #23
Romang67
BitterSwede
 
Romang67's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Illinois
Country: Sweden
Posts: 9,167
vCash: 545
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aavco Cup View Post
How about the Colorado 2 (year) step. Significant injuries to thecore of the lineup cause a plummet in the standings and ultimately a lottery win. Add MacKinnon stay relatively healthy and improve your goaltending and rocket up the standings.

That's a more likely scenario than us raising a central banner oct 2015.
Honestly, that scenario isn't unlikely. Say that a few of our key players go down with injuries, and Trouba and Scheifele both have sophomore slumps. And obviously management keep riding .900elec. I can see us in the conversation for a top pick.

Romang67 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
Yesterday, 03:25 PM
  #24
StronGeer
Hopeful Fleecer
 
StronGeer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Edmonton
Posts: 3,871
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aavco Cup View Post
How about the Colorado 2 (year) step. Significant injuries to thecore of the lineup cause a plummet in the standings and ultimately a lottery win. Add MacKinnon stay relatively healthy and improve your goaltending and rocket up the standings.

That's a more likely scenario than us raising a central banner oct 2015.
That'd be sweet. Because you still gave it the good ol' college try, but the odds were stacked against you due to key injuries. Then pick up McJesus and go on a tear.

StronGeer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
Yesterday, 06:47 PM
  #25
Hollywood3
Bison/Jet Fan
 
Hollywood3's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2007
Country: Canada
Posts: 2,907
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Romang67 View Post
Colorado had a great season mostly because of unsustainable sh% and incredible sv%. One of these things could happen to any team, including us.

The other... Well, it COULD happen.
Yep. It could. And a nude Cindy Crawford might show up at my place to watch it with me.

Hollywood3 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 07:20 AM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. 2014 All Rights Reserved.