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Old
10-03-2012, 11:04 PM
  #276
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There's a great pic on the Yankees FB of Joba and Ichiro. It's hysterical.

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10-04-2012, 07:40 AM
  #277
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remember, the Yankees will start on the ROAD even though they have home field advantage

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10-04-2012, 08:20 AM
  #278
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NJDevs26 View Post
EDIT: Nevermind, should have Googled WAR first before posting. I still think anything that requires a computer to explain (and is partially subjective itself) is a bit of a garbage stat, like the BCS formula in college football.
To each his own, but WAR is a very good stat. It encompasses almost every aspect of the game (hitting, fielding, base running, positional value) and puts player value into the most meaningful context - wins.

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10-04-2012, 09:36 AM
  #279
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Right, but how can you really say any fielding or baserunning 'number' is completely reliable? Some players that aren't particularly fast are good baserunners or have quick feet/can get to balls by good positioning. All the baserunning and fielding stats do is attempt to approximate the 'eye test' value.

And comparing people by position helps guys like Trout or Buster Posey because there aren't many good offensive catchers or CF'ers. That doesn't mean they're better players than Albert Pujols but they have more 'value' because of where they play.

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10-04-2012, 09:58 AM
  #280
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I'd say good positioning is enough. I don't care how fast the guy is, does he make the plays that he should? Does he occasionally rob balls that he should have had no business catching? Does he steal a lot of bases, and does he not get caught often? The result matters more than the technique, I'd say.

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10-04-2012, 10:04 AM
  #281
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Feed Me A Stray Cat View Post
To each his own, but WAR is a very good stat. It encompasses almost every aspect of the game (hitting, fielding, base running, positional value) and puts player value into the most meaningful context - wins.
WAR is the dumbest stat in sports, IMO.

It has no indication of a players ability compared to his competition, just his ability compared to his back up.

If Miguel Cabrera has me as his back up, his WAR is going to be incredibly high. If he has Albert Pujols as his back up, his WAR is going to be incredibly low. Yet the season he had does not change.

Should my ability to play baseball compared to Albert Pujols ability to play baseball effect Miguel Cabrera's accomplishments?

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10-04-2012, 10:08 AM
  #282
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Quote:
Originally Posted by apice3 View Post
WAR is the dumbest stat in sports, IMO.

It has no indication of a players ability compared to his competition, just his ability compared to his back up.

If Miguel Cabrera has me as his back up, his WAR is going to be incredibly high. If he has Albert Pujols as his back up, his WAR is going to be incredibly low. Yet the season he had does not change.

Should my ability to play baseball compared to Albert Pujols ability to play baseball effect Miguel Cabrera's accomplishments?
If you're going to call it the dumbest stat in sports at least understand how it's calculated.

Every player has the same "back-up" according to WAR. Replacement level is defined for each position every season, and every player at that position is rated relative to the same replacement level.

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10-04-2012, 10:11 AM
  #283
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Feed Me A Stray Cat View Post
If you're going to call it the dumbest stat in sports at least understand how it's calculated.

Every player has the same "back-up" according to WAR. Replacement level is defined for each position every season, and every player at that position is rated relative to the same replacement level.
Haha seriously? WAR is calculated based on a computer backing you up?

I didn't think it was possible for the stat to be dumber than I thought it was, but it is.

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10-04-2012, 10:13 AM
  #284
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NJDevs26 View Post
Right, but how can you really say any fielding or baserunning 'number' is completely reliable? Some players that aren't particularly fast are good baserunners or have quick feet/can get to balls by good positioning. All the baserunning and fielding stats do is attempt to approximate the 'eye test' value.

And comparing people by position helps guys like Trout or Buster Posey because there aren't many good offensive catchers or CF'ers. That doesn't mean they're better players than Albert Pujols but they have more 'value' because of where they play.
Fielding and base running stats are definitely more nebulous than batting, however they're getting pretty good.

The base running stats take into account steals, caught stealing, and how many bases runners advance, so in the end it accounts for any type of good positioning or good instincts slower guys might have.

And the fielding stats are pretty specific. UZR is calculated by looking at every single ball hit into play each season and using velocity, trajectory, distance, etc. of the hits to determine what the average fielder would get to. From there, you can determine what fielders are above and below average based on how many balls they get to and plays they make. Errors and throwing ability are also factored into the equation.


Last edited by Feed Me A Stray Cat: 10-04-2012 at 10:18 AM.
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10-04-2012, 10:15 AM
  #285
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WAR is not calculated based on the individual players' backups, that would be ludicrous. Guys in platoon situations would have terrible WARs if so, and that's not always the case. I believe it's done based on an average of replacement level around the league for that position. What would you expect a minor league lifer to do in that spot? That's replacement level.

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10-04-2012, 10:15 AM
  #286
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Quote:
Originally Posted by apice3 View Post
Haha seriously? WAR is calculated based on a computer backing you up?

I didn't think it was possible for the stat to be dumber than I thought it was, but it is.
I feel like I'm talking to a wall here, but I'll explain further...

Replacement level more or less measures what a minor league call up would do. These fringe type players who find themselves doing well in AAA but never hacking it in the MLB. Every single team has these players, and if they don't, they're easily acquired.

This creates an apples to apples comparison because every team has access to these players, so it makes sense to compare players to that benchmark.

It's kind of amazing how quickly people are to ridicule things as "dumb" when they don't even understand them.

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Old
10-04-2012, 11:32 AM
  #287
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Feed Me A Stray Cat View Post
To each his own, but WAR is a very good stat. It encompasses almost every aspect of the game (hitting, fielding, base running, positional value) and puts player value into the most meaningful context - wins.

who do the Angels play this weekend?

Miggy is the MVP

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10-04-2012, 11:34 AM
  #288
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Middletown Mike View Post
who do the Angels play this weekend?

Miggy is the MVP
Trout contributed 10.4 wins to his team.

Cabrera? 7.2.

Why should trout be penalized because his teammates were inferior to Cabrera's?

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10-04-2012, 11:38 AM
  #289
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Feed Me A Stray Cat View Post
Trout contributed 10.4 wins to his team.

Cabrera? 7.2.

Why should trout be penalized because his teammates were inferior to Cabrera's?
so hold on one second....

because your WAR stat says that, you believe that he had more to do with how many wins his team got than somebody who WON THE TRIPLE CROWN!?

nobody has won the triple crown in 45 years!

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10-04-2012, 12:01 PM
  #290
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Middletown Mike View Post
so hold on one second....

because your WAR stat says that, you believe that he had more to do with how many wins his team got than somebody who WON THE TRIPLE CROWN!?

nobody has won the triple crown in 45 years!
Um, yes. WAR is an extremely good indicator of actual performance/value, and is FAR more comprehensive than HR, RBIs, and AVG.

I find it funny when people bash on stats, and then use inferior stats to support their argument. And once again, you are only considering offense. Trout is a far superior defensive player to Cabrera. Why do people continue to ignore this?

Article on why Trout was the superior offensive player: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...text-included/

Baseball has gotten to the point where we know the exact run value of every single type of play (base hit with a runner on 2nd, home run with a runner on 1st, steal with 2 outs, etc.). These stats aren't guess work.

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10-04-2012, 12:18 PM
  #291
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I vote for Trout too

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10-04-2012, 12:18 PM
  #292
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If Trout is so valuable why didn't the Angels make the Playoffs?

Miggy isn't a world beater at the hot corner, but he isn't a slouch either. If you take Miggy off the Tigers, they are home with the Angels, with or without Trout. Prince didn't live up to expectations, neither did Verlander.

What are inferior the stats you speak of? HRs? AVG? RBIs?

Im not being biased here in any way. I probably like Mike Trout better than Miggy, but if you think a triple crown winner should lose out to a potential gold glove winner for MVP your nuts.

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10-04-2012, 01:02 PM
  #293
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Middletown Mike View Post
If Trout is so valuable why didn't the Angels make the Playoffs?

Miggy isn't a world beater at the hot corner, but he isn't a slouch either. If you take Miggy off the Tigers, they are home with the Angels, with or without Trout. Prince didn't live up to expectations, neither did Verlander.

What are inferior the stats you speak of? HRs? AVG? RBIs?

Im not being biased here in any way. I probably like Mike Trout better than Miggy, but if you think a triple crown winner should lose out to a potential gold glove winner for MVP your nuts.
Because Cabrera's supporting cast played better than Trout's supporting cast? Not hard to understand. You realize a baseball team is comprised of 25 individuals, not one, right?

Detroit's pitching was better than Anaheim's (3.77 ERA compared to 4.02 ERA). Also contemplate that Anaheim's pitching would look worse if not for Trout's defense.

Prince didn't live up to expectations? Really? 30HR with a .412 OBP? If you really want to talk about not living up to expectations, let's look at Pujols and his .343 OBP.

And saying that Verlander didn't live up to expectations is beyond comical. He had the best WAR of any pitcher in the game this season and posted a 2.64 ERA. What more do you want? If you actually want to discuss failing to live up to expectations, take a look at Dan Haren.

Trout was on par or better than Cabrera offensively (please refer to the link I provided in the previous post - this isn't just blind opinion, it's rooted in analysis of what occurred in every single bat for each of their seasons). He was miles better defensively. There is absolutely no contest.

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10-04-2012, 01:04 PM
  #294
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I vote Trout. easily.

what he does in the field and the basepaths cannot be ignored.

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10-04-2012, 01:06 PM
  #295
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Feed Me A Stray Cat View Post
Trout contributed 10.4 wins to his team.

Cabrera? 7.2.

Why should trout be penalized because his teammates were inferior to Cabrera's?
I understand the point of WAR but it's an arbitrary number

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10-04-2012, 01:10 PM
  #296
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DatBoyJPP View Post
I understand the point of WAR but it's an arbitrary number
It's a bit hypothetical because it compares players to a seemingly invisible replacement player, however other "real" statistics prove the point out as well.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...text-included/

Gross Run Creation this season:
1. Mike Trout: +56.52 runs
2. Edwin Encarnacion: +54.44 runs
3. Prince Fielder: +48.12 runs
4. Joe Mauer: +46.51 runs
5. Miguel Cabrera: +45.18 runs

No replacement level. This is simply how many runs these players created based on analysis of every single one of their at bats and situations faced. Cabrera wasn't even the best player on his team when it came to creating runs this season.

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10-04-2012, 01:11 PM
  #297
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Although I hate arguing the other way on this, let's be honest, if Trout was up with the Angels all season they may well have made the playoffs. I can't use one team made the postseason to bolster an argument when the other team had a better record in a better division anyway.

Arguing real numbers versus contrived numbers is one thing but both were on good teams, let's throw the playoff thing out.

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10-04-2012, 01:15 PM
  #298
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War is a good stat for comparing players that play the same or similar positions. I wouldn't use it to compare an outfielder to an infielder, but that's just me.

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10-04-2012, 02:58 PM
  #299
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The fact that the Tigers made the playoffs and the Angels just barely didn't should have no influence on the award, but it probably will.

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10-05-2012, 12:33 AM
  #300
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Feed Me A Stray Cat View Post
I feel like I'm talking to a wall here, but I'll explain further...

Replacement level more or less measures what a minor league call up would do. These fringe type players who find themselves doing well in AAA but never hacking it in the MLB. Every single team has these players, and if they don't, they're easily acquired.

This creates an apples to apples comparison because every team has access to these players, so it makes sense to compare players to that benchmark.

It's kind of amazing how quickly people are to ridicule things as "dumb" when they don't even understand them.
So what you're telling me is that Cabrera compared to a computer generated number is not as great as Trout comparedto a computer generated number. And for that reason, Trout is the MVP.

Sounds kind of silly.

By the way, WAR suggests that Chase Headley had a better season than Miguel Cabrera.

Cabrera had a batting average 44 points higher, an OPS 17 points higher, a slugging% 108 points higher, 32 more hits, 14 more runs, 24 more RBI, 20 more XBH, 59 fewer strikeouts, and WON THE TRIPLE ****ING CROWN for the first time in 45 years.

Cabrera also made three more errors.

Those three errors apparently outweigh the incredible offensive difference.

WAR is a joke.

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