HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > NHL Eastern Conference > Atlantic Division > Montreal Canadiens
Mobile Hockey's Future Become a Sponsor Site Rules Support Forum vBookie Page 2
Notices

Habs 2012-13 Stat Predictions

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old
08-29-2012, 12:55 PM
  #26
WHATaboutLOVE
Registered User
 
WHATaboutLOVE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Montreal
Country: Canada
Posts: 455
vCash: 500
Max Pacioretty: 82-37-37-74
David Desharnais: 70-13-45-58
Erik Cole: 80-27-23-50
Tomas Plekanec: 82-24-44-68
Rene Bourque: 64-14-13-27
Brian Gionta: 80-20-20-40
Lars Eller: 82-18-22-40
Travis Moen: 71-12-14-26
Brandon Prust: 81-6-10-16
Colby Armstrong: 74-7-7-14
Ryan White: 82-4-4-8

P.K Subban: 82-19-30-49
Josh Gorges: 82-3-12-15
Andrei Markov: 70-8-46-54
Tomas Kaberle: 74-2-27-29
Alexei Emelin: 80-9-15-24
Raphael Diaz: 60-6-10-16
Francis Boullion: 40-0-7-7

Louis Leblanc: 50-12-16-28
Brendan Gallagher: 40-8-9-27

Alex Galchenyuk: 9-1-2-3


Last edited by WHATaboutLOVE: 08-29-2012 at 01:02 PM.
WHATaboutLOVE is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
08-29-2012, 12:59 PM
  #27
Roulin
Registered User
 
Roulin's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Montreal
Posts: 4,242
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mrb1p View Post
Many teams do it. It's not that hard..
Vancouver, Winnipeg, Detroit, Chicago.. Even TML and Toronto missed 3 30 points+ dman by 3-4 points... It's not that big of a deal. 20-30 es points is not farfetched for Markov/Subban, then 10-20 for Kaberle is not farfetched too.
That's 4 teams out of 30. Only Vancouver had 3 at 35+.

I think your ES estimates are too optimistic. Markov's ES Pts post-lockout, pre-injury:

09-10: 17
08-09: 24
07-08: 23
06-07: 14
05-06: 19

Roulin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
08-29-2012, 01:12 PM
  #28
Mrb1p
Registered User
 
Mrb1p's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Citizen of the world
Country: Canada
Posts: 16,233
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roulin View Post
That's 4 teams out of 30. Only Vancouver had 3 at 35+.

I think your ES estimates are too optimistic. Markov's ES Pts post-lockout, pre-injury:

09-10: 17
08-09: 24
07-08: 23
06-07: 14
05-06: 19
Yet P.K. had 21 ES points this year. I think it's not so farfetched. Maybe 30 is optimistic but 20-25 is in the ball park.
46 Dman's we're over 20 points this year in ES..

Mrb1p is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
08-29-2012, 01:40 PM
  #29
Roulin
Registered User
 
Roulin's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Montreal
Posts: 4,242
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mrb1p View Post
Yet P.K. had 21 ES points this year. I think it's not so farfetched. Maybe 30 is optimistic but 20-25 is in the ball park.
46 Dman's we're over 20 points this year in ES..
I actually agree with your optimism about Subban, he has been a crazy ES scorer at every level, and he'll get tons of ice time. It's Markov and Kaberle that I think will need that PP time to put up points, and there's only so much to go around.

I do think it's possible that Kaberle ends up with 30+pts on another team this season (assuming the lockout is brief or completely averted), but he'll need to be on the top PP unit.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mrb1p View Post
46 Dman's we're over 20 points this year in ES..
25 of those at 23pts or less.

Sidebar - looking at that list, Karlsson's season is even more mind blowing. I wonder if he'll ever do it again.

Another sidebar - I'm enjoying this argument, it's forcing me to look at some numbers and challenge my preconceptions. I always liked Hamrlik, but I didn't realize how offensively productive he was at evens.

Roulin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
08-29-2012, 03:10 PM
  #30
Talks to Goalposts
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Edmonton
Country: Canada
Posts: 3,627
vCash: 500
I think projections get a lot more sensible when you break them down into Even Strength and Power Play production

75-82 game season projection.

Even Strength:

Pacioretty: 25-23-48
Team's best offensive player, I expect a slightly worse ES year after he was so dominant last season, mainly in terms of goals scored.

Cole: 23-22-45
Cole is always an even strength beast. He retains his scoring from last year if given a similar role. His drop off is on the power play.

Desharnais: 12-25-37
Another slight drop off, this will get more extreme if his linemate strength declines. As much as I am seen as a detractor of DD I consider him an excellent offensive zone playmaker.

Plekanec: 17-20-37
His linemate situation is bound to improve, and he recovers from some bad shooting luck at even strength. This is a return to a historical production.

Gionta: 17-18-35
Goal scoring dips, assists rises without Gomez as his center. He and Plekanec likely play together in a line that his a decent 5 on 5 offense producer but main strength is its excellent shutdown play.

Bourque: 18-10-28
The Cy Young award winner. Bourque should be brutal at setting up plays but I expect him rebound somewhat at his best discipline, 5 on 5 goal scoring. 3 assists when playing an offensive role is too comically low to expect a repeat though. His surgury will throw of his games played though, reducing his real totals.

Eller: 12-12-24
Lack of competent linemates scuttles any chance of improved offense from the Dane. No Kostitsyn hurts him the worst. Big increase if there is a center injury and he plays significant amounts as a top 6 center.

Armstrong: 13-10-23
Competent ES scorer if healthy, one of Eller's best hopes for a good scoring linemate.

Leblanc: 12-10-22
I'm pretty high on LL's abilities to score 5 on 5. He might be Eller's best linemate next year if he's playing in the big leagues.

Moen: 7-10-17
Moen plays his best offensive hockey with Eller. Its still not very good though.

Prust: 6-9-15
He's really not a scorer in any meaningful sense.


Subban: 5-18-23
His goals rebound but I don't expect big improvements in ES points.

Markov: 4-18-22
17-24 points sounds like Markov's range 5 on 5. Powerplay is his main strength.

Kaberle: 2-15-17
More limited minutes but he's a 2nd assist machine for a defenseman.

Gorges: 1-14-15
ES minutes leads to points, not offensive flair.

Emelin: 2-10-12
Finally gets some assists.


Power Play:
Pacioretty: 9-9-18
He gets back the ES goals he lost here. Best offensive winger is key to the powerplay, Cammalleri's replacement.

Plekanec: 4-14-18
Always a top powerplay man. Quite set up work key to getting the job done.

Desharnais: 4-14-18
Was fairly inept to start last year, didn't really know how to use his point men. Could have some real potential as a PP guy though.

Gionta: 9-4-14
The only RH shot, will be counted on for goals, won't drive the play.

Cole: 6-5-11
He's typically far weaker with the man advantage than he was last year in terms of scoring. This is where his scoring drops off.

Bourque: 5-3-8
May have a role as a big dumb object. Eller could take it from him though.


Markov: 5-18-23
Not as great as he once was, still one of the best in the league. League wide decline in PP opportunities robs him of his former huge point totals, even the best defenseman can no longer get 30 points on the powerplay.

Subban: 7-13-20
Much better year in likely an improved system. He's been good with Wisniewski and Kaberle, will be good with Markov/Kaberle. Has talent to be a terrific goal scorer with the man advantage. Strength on defense is what makes the PP go in Montreal.

Kaberle: 1-9-10
3rd man won't get minutes to put up good numbers unless Markov isn't around.


Expect Plekanec and Eller to pick up some extraneous PK scoring, 2-5 points each. Eller gets some spot duty on the powerplay that ups his numbers a bit also.


Thus I come to expect from the top players:

Pacioretty: 34-32-66
Plekanec: 22-36-58
Cole: 29-27-56
Desharnais: 16-39-55
Gionta: 26-23-49
Bourque: 23-15-38
Eller: 15-15-30

Markov: 9-36-45
Subban: 12-31-43
Kaberle: 3-24-27

Due to injury, 3 20 goal scorers more likely than 5. Getting another reliable .5+ PPG forward has to be a priority. Getting Eller some ES wingers that can defend and attack simultaneous is another.


The totals from the top defensemen might not look spectacular, but with the decline in power play opportunities its actually very strong. Very few teams had 2 .5+ point per game defenseman who played most of the season last year. (Winnepeg, St. Louis, Nashville, Vancouver).
Likewise, the number of teams that have two better scoring from their top six centers is also limited to a small number of squads such as Pittsburgh, Detroit, Tampa Bay, San Jose, Boston, Dallas and Philladelphia. Montreal is neither strong nor weak there, merely average. The chief deficiencies of the Habs squad on offense is from wingers below the top 3, and the lack of a single extraordinary scorer. The former is one of the easier problems to fix, the latter is typically impossible to change in the short term.


Last edited by Talks to Goalposts: 08-29-2012 at 03:45 PM.
Talks to Goalposts is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
08-29-2012, 04:33 PM
  #31
Mrb1p
Registered User
 
Mrb1p's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Citizen of the world
Country: Canada
Posts: 16,233
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roulin View Post
I actually agree with your optimism about Subban, he has been a crazy ES scorer at every level, and he'll get tons of ice time. It's Markov and Kaberle that I think will need that PP time to put up points, and there's only so much to go around.

I do think it's possible that Kaberle ends up with 30+pts on another team this season (assuming the lockout is brief or completely averted), but he'll need to be on the top PP unit.



25 of those at 23pts or less.

Sidebar - looking at that list, Karlsson's season is even more mind blowing. I wonder if he'll ever do it again.

Another sidebar - I'm enjoying this argument, it's forcing me to look at some numbers and challenge my preconceptions. I always liked Hamrlik, but I didn't realize how offensively productive he was at evens.


Ya I loved that Old fart Hamrlik.. He was always so constant, very good passes.. Very good back-doors.. He was a very solid top 3 dman, so underrated in his latter year.

Also, Karlsson's year is ridiculous. I don't think he can ever reproduce this he is at 3 ES points of Giroux ... This is incredible. Planet's we're aligned for him...

He's gonna be good, but 50 ES point really ?

Mrb1p is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
08-29-2012, 04:54 PM
  #32
Talks to Goalposts
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Edmonton
Country: Canada
Posts: 3,627
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mrb1p View Post


Ya I loved that Old fart Hamrlik.. He was always so constant, very good passes.. Very good back-doors.. He was a very solid top 3 dman, so underrated in his latter year.

Also, Karlsson's year is ridiculous. I don't think he can ever reproduce this he is at 3 ES points of Giroux ... This is incredible. Planet's we're aligned for him...

He's gonna be good, but 50 ES point really ?
Karlsson was involved on a ridiculous amount of his team's goals while on ice, something I very much doubt can be consistently replicated. Look at Mike Green after his 30 goal 70 point season or Keith after his 48 ES point year.

If he stays above 30 consistently he's the top or nearly the top offensive d in the league. I very much doubt he's a special case.

Defenseman offense on even strength is so dependent on things outside their control that a large degree of randomness with occasional incredible outliers is to be expected.

Thinking Karlsson won't replicate is the fairly sensible conclusion that he, in fact, is not Bobby Orr and probably not Paul Coffey either.


Last edited by Talks to Goalposts: 08-29-2012 at 04:59 PM.
Talks to Goalposts is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
08-31-2012, 02:39 AM
  #33
habFAN09
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 11
vCash: 500
I think Pacioretty will hit 30 goals again similar numbers to last season 65-70 pts.

Cole should have similar numbers as well about 30-35 goals, 60 points

Look to see better numbers for Pleks i would love to see him hit 70 pts again but 60 is more realistic, just give hime consistant linemates.

DD is a tough one i hope he can have another 60+ pt season, although i feel his pt total will slide a bit but not very much, id say mid 50's

Gionta with a full season im hoping for 25 goals out of him

Hoping for a full season out of Markov giving him 50+ assists as he did back in 08-09.

Subban should feed off of Markov's offensive output as well seeing him up his pt total from 36 to the mid 40's

And if Price could have a 30 win season things are looking good in Hab land

habFAN09 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
08-31-2012, 05:29 AM
  #34
One Man Rock Band
Slater's Gonna Slate
 
One Man Rock Band's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Habville
Country: Canada
Posts: 44,857
vCash: 500
** If Galchenyuk has 7 or 9 points like a few people suggested, why would MTL send him down!?

----------------

Max Pacioretty: 74 points
David Desharnais: 70 points
Erik Cole: 66 points
Tomas Plekanec: 65 points
Brian Gionta: 50 points
Rene Bourque: 42 points
Lars Eller: 40 points
Louis Leblanc: 39 points
Colby Armstrong: 28 points
Travis Moen: 26 points
Brandon Prust: 14 points
Ryan White: 13 points

Andrei Markov: 54 points
P.K Subban: 48 points
Tomas Kaberle: 44 points
Raphael Diaz: 24 points
Josh Gorges: 20 points
Francis Boullion: 16 points
Alexei Emelin: 15 points
Yannick Weber: 12 points
Frederic St-Denis: 2 points

Pacioretty - Desharnais - Leblanc
Cole - Plekanec - Gionta
Moen - Eller - Prust
White - Gomez - Armstrong
Nokelainen

Subban - Gorges
Markov - Emelin/Diaz
Kaberle - Bouillon
Emelin/Diaz - Weber

Price
Budaj


Last edited by One Man Rock Band: 08-31-2012 at 05:35 AM.
One Man Rock Band is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
08-31-2012, 10:49 AM
  #35
danyhabsfan
Registered User
 
danyhabsfan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Montreal
Country: Canada
Posts: 4,604
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by HawkeyeCB View Post
** If Galchenyuk has 7 or 9 points like a few people suggested, why would MTL send him down!?

----------------

Max Pacioretty: 74 points
David Desharnais: 70 points
Erik Cole: 66 points
Tomas Plekanec: 65 points
Brian Gionta: 50 points
Rene Bourque: 42 points
Lars Eller: 40 points
Louis Leblanc: 39 points
Colby Armstrong: 28 points
Travis Moen: 26 points
Brandon Prust: 14 points
Ryan White: 13 points

Andrei Markov: 54 points
P.K Subban: 48 points
Tomas Kaberle: 44 points
Raphael Diaz: 24 points
Josh Gorges: 20 points
Francis Boullion: 16 points
Alexei Emelin: 15 points
Yannick Weber: 12 points
Frederic St-Denis: 2 points

Pacioretty - Desharnais - Leblanc
Cole - Plekanec - Gionta
Moen - Eller - Prust
White - Gomez - Armstrong
Nokelainen

Subban - Gorges
Markov - Emelin/Diaz
Kaberle - Bouillon
Emelin/Diaz - Weber

Price
Budaj
Cole is a RW. I wouldnt put him on LW since he's so good at driving to the net with 1 hand while protecting the puck.

danyhabsfan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
08-31-2012, 12:37 PM
  #36
MasterDecoy
Carlos Danger
 
MasterDecoy's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Beijing
Posts: 10,258
vCash: 500
I actually have a really hard time seeing cole equalize his goals from last season...

A lot of his goals I would chalk up to 'luck'... Like banging away at a rebound. Off the top of my head, wasn't his shooting % way above normal?

Patches on the other hand I can see improve on last seqson's number... Dude was amazing

MasterDecoy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
08-31-2012, 01:03 PM
  #37
Talks to Goalposts
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Edmonton
Country: Canada
Posts: 3,627
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by MasterDecoy View Post
I actually have a really hard time seeing cole equalize his goals from last season...

A lot of his goals I would chalk up to 'luck'... Like banging away at a rebound. Off the top of my head, wasn't his shooting % way above normal?

Patches on the other hand I can see improve on last seqson's number... Dude was amazing
His powerplay shooting was way above normal for him. His ES was typical for Cole. Playing with Desharnais v Staal did not make a significant difference for his even strength scoring abilities but he did score a lot more with the man advantage in MTL. However, team effectiveness with Cole was relatively weak, so I don't think he was significantly helping things with the man advantage.

Talks to Goalposts is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
08-31-2012, 01:11 PM
  #38
MasterDecoy
Carlos Danger
 
MasterDecoy's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Beijing
Posts: 10,258
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Talks to Goalposts View Post
His powerplay shooting was way above normal for him. His ES was typical for Cole. Playing with Desharnais v Staal did not make a significant difference for his even strength scoring abilities but he did score a lot more with the man advantage in MTL. However, team effectiveness with Cole was relatively weak, so I don't think he was significantly helping things with the man advantage.
I see, thanks. Couldn't be assed to run the numbers

MasterDecoy is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 02:25 PM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. 2014 All Rights Reserved.