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2012-13 point total prediction: Bryan Little

View Poll Results: How many points will Little score in 2012-13
Less than 20 1 3.85%
20-24 0 0%
25-29 1 3.85%
30-34 0 0%
35-39 2 7.69%
40-44 5 19.23%
45-49 5 19.23%
50-54 8 30.77%
55-59 1 3.85%
More than 60 3 11.54%
Voters: 26. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
08-29-2012, 08:35 AM
  #1
Hank Chinaski
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2012-13 point total prediction: Bryan Little

GP: 80
G: 19
Pts: 43

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08-29-2012, 09:19 AM
  #2
garret9
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Depends on usage of Jokinen really.

77 GP
20 G
28 A
48 PTS

NamePOS GP TOI/60 CORSION CORSIQoC OZS G/60 A1/60 A2/60 P/60
BLITTLE C 74 15.33 13.40 -0.527 53.6 0.85 0.53 0.16 1.53

Most common line-mates (in order):
Wheeler (866:05), Ladd (711:04), Kane (272:21), Wellwood (94:18)

Most common D on ice with (in order):
Byfuglien (496:55), Enstrom (436:31), Bogosian (285:13), Stuart (257:10)

YearGP Shots SH% Goals
07-08 48 76 7.9 6
08-09 79 172 18.0 31
09-10 79 165 7.9 13
10-11 76 158 11.4 18
11-12 74 162 14.8 24

Poor guy will always be compared to a year where he got some puck luck (and shot the most in his career)... not because he was a RW. He's good at everything but not amazing at anything. Great 2way player with strong defensive ability makes him our best centre for tough offensive minutes, IMHO. I do wish the guy shot closer to 200 shots as he is a bit of a natural shooter. Little also had stong setup chemistry with Kane.

Jokinen will eat away at his PP time (Little had 6PPG and 7PPA) but I'm unsure if he'll eat away Little's even strength time. Jokinen didn't do well as a shutdown centre with power matchups last year but he may be strong enough to take 1st line toughs since Noel puts the hardest minutes on the 3rd line. Personally I would like Little as 1st line and Jokinen as 2nd line with soft offensive minutes; with this Little will probably have a bit less goals but more assists (he had the least luck with secondary than anyone else on the team but GST).


Last edited by garret9: 08-29-2012 at 10:41 AM.
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Old
08-29-2012, 10:10 AM
  #3
Guerzy
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I chose 50-54 points. I think Bryan Little will have a quiet yet consistent and reliable season for us. With the addition of Jokinen, I am hoping that gives Little some relief and takes all of that pressure off of him that he had last season to be the no. 1 center.

Last season Little went through the ups and downs of scoring droughts and an injury just as it appeared he was finding his groove, in which he had 11 goals, 6 assists for 17 points in 18 games, stretching from November 8th to December 17th. Even upon his return from his foot injury, it took him a few games to get back into form (somewhat) but for the remaining 36 games of the season, Little scored 25 points.

After Little's 0 goals and 3 points in the first 14 games, he had 43 points in the remaining 60 games he played. Not too shabby.

If Little stays relatively healthy, I am hoping for a 20-25 goal, 25-30 assist, 50 point season.

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Old
08-29-2012, 10:45 AM
  #4
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Need guys like Little to keep improving if we're going to make the playoffs. He was in the background for most of last year, seemed to get knocked off the puck pretty easy. Hoping for 25 goals and at least 50 points from him this year if we're going to make the playoffs. I think moving him down to the 2nd line and playing against weaker defenceman on other teams will help his game.

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Old
08-29-2012, 10:57 AM
  #5
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Would love to see
80g
20g
50p

That may be a stetch

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Old
08-29-2012, 11:04 AM
  #6
garret9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hockeyarenadotnet View Post
Need guys like Little to keep improving if we're going to make the playoffs. He was in the background for most of last year, seemed to get knocked off the puck pretty easy. Hoping for 25 goals and at least 50 points from him this year if we're going to make the playoffs. I think moving him down to the 2nd line and playing against weaker defenceman on other teams will help his game.
My guess, without knowing for sure, is we'll see both Jokinen and Little switched around like we did last year with Ladd and Kane.

Last year we found that Ladd did better controlling possession against the tough offensive minutes while Kane was better at taking advantage of the soft offensive minutes... and it appears Noel noticed this too (I still think TNSE has an advance stats guy working for them looking at line usage and their signings [Poni!!])

It'll be interesting to see what happens. Jokinen didn't control possession well against tough minutes last year and didn't score many 5v5 points against tough competition but he still has scoring touch with soft minutes as shown with his 9PPG and 15PPA... buuuut on the other hand Jokinen was treated more like how we treated Slater last season (all the tough minutes), so maybe the 1st line will be enough of a drop in competition for him.

I've placed this elsewhere but just to give a visual expression of this:
Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
This is from Eric T.'s work over at NHL numbers.
Basic idea is evaluating quality of competition a player faces by the opposing player's TOI/60 instead of CORSI. This allows to split up the oppositions defence and offence.


Either way, I think we'll be better off than last year with our 1 and 2 C punch.

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Old
08-29-2012, 11:11 AM
  #7
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Thought Little would be a little better than what we saw but in his defence he was injured for a good part of the season. Can't see him on anything but the second line now.

50 pts. seems about right, 20 goals, 30 assists, thought we were getting a 30 goal, 50 assist guy though.


Last edited by sipowicz: 08-29-2012 at 11:24 AM.
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Old
08-29-2012, 11:50 AM
  #8
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76gp
26g
30a
56pts

I can't see how he'll get less with the possibility of sheltered offensive minutes and not being injured for a big chunk of the season.

I expect more if he slides to right wing if Burmi kicks ass, like I expect him too.

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Old
08-29-2012, 12:16 PM
  #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sully1410 View Post
76gp
26g
30a
56pts

I can't see how he'll get less with the possibility of sheltered offensive minutes and not being injured for a big chunk of the season.

I expect more if he slides to right wing if Burmi kicks ass, like I expect him too.
definitly hoping we see ladd-joki-wheeler and kane-little<->burmi as our top 2, with welly as our sub in.

I think little will probably get 23 goals, 29 assists, for 52 points.

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08-29-2012, 12:29 PM
  #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sully1410 View Post
76gp
26g
30a
56pts

I can't see how he'll get less with the possibility of sheltered offensive minutes and not being injured for a big chunk of the season.

I expect more if he slides to right wing if Burmi kicks ass, like I expect him too.
He may see less ice time and less powerplay time. That could slow him down.

This will be the last year anybody hopes for growth from Little. I am already past that. He is what he is. Less ice time should mean less production.

I think he'll check in somewhere around 20G, 20A for 40P

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Old
08-29-2012, 12:45 PM
  #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by truck View Post
He may see less ice time and less powerplay time. That could slow him down.

This will be the last year anybody hopes for growth from Little. I am already past that. He is what he is. Less ice time should mean less production.

I think he'll check in somewhere around 20G, 20A for 40P
I imagine he'll still get 2nd unit time. If they pair him up with Kane then I def. see more assists, but they keep him as the 1st line centre as to not screw up the chemistry they had. If he stays healthy, at the very least he'll reproduce his numbers. I imagine he'll do better.

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Old
08-29-2012, 12:48 PM
  #12
garret9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by truck View Post
He may see less ice time and less powerplay time. That could slow him down.

This will be the last year anybody hopes for growth from Little. I am already past that. He is what he is. Less ice time should mean less production.

I think he'll check in somewhere around 20G, 20A for 40P
I could see more goals if he was a lil more selfish... I've been saving this for an AIH article I'm writing but with similar usage/sh%/etc last year but 200 shots (a jump from 2.2 shot/gp to 2.6 shot/gp ~Wheeler's level and just 2-4 more games) and more luck with secondary assists (only Glass, Slater, and Thorburn did worse) to par with his primary assists Little would of been around 28-30G, 27-29A, 55-59PTS

The lack of shots for a first liner is what hurts him most and what causes him to appear streaky.

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08-29-2012, 12:52 PM
  #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
I could see more goals if he was a lil more selfish... I've been saving this for an AIH article I'm writing but with similar usage/sh%/etc last year but 200 shots (a jump from 2.2 shot/gp to 2.6 shot/gp ~Wheeler's level) and more luck with secondary assists (only Glass, Slater, and Thorburn did worse) to par with his primary assists Little would of been around 28-30G, 27-29A, 55-59PTS

The lack of shots for a first liner is what hurts him most and what causes him to appear streaky.
Nicely said, garret. All realistic and attainable. I certainly still see room for growth and improvement within Little's game. Not my leaps and bounds, but surely enough for me to believe we have not seen the best of Bryan Little, nor do I think he is what he is, at this point... not yet. Soon... but not just yet.

When he played his first full NHL season and scored 31 goals, all was well. The following year he endured a pretty drastic drop in production, perhaps the sophomore jinx? The year after that, his final year in Atlanta before coming to Winnipeg, his numbers improved and his all-around play improved, saying himself it was his best all around season. I think it's fair to say he made strides and growth that season. Which then brings us to just last season, where in my opinion a combination of injury and being relied upon in a role he isn't made nor good enough for, slowed him a bit. But, he did still accumulate some decent numbers. At this point, he's still learning and rounding out, even if he will be 25 in November.

Little will never be a #1 center in my opinion, not on a legitimate contender or playoff team anyway, but I do think he can be a legitimate, solid #2 center who can score 25 goals, 50-60 points. I think some upside and growth is still there in terms of solidifying what he can offer.

I certainly think this is a year where hopefully Little can stay healthy and become consistent. He won't be so heavily relied upon with the addition of Jokinen, perhaps he'll shoot a little more, etc. I still think we can see some growth and improvements in Bryan Little.

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08-29-2012, 01:22 PM
  #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Guerzy View Post
Nicely said, garret. All realistic and attainable. I certainly still see room for growth and improvement within Little's game. Not my leaps and bounds, but surely enough for me to believe we have not seen the best of Bryan Little, nor do I think he is what he is, at this point... not yet. Soon... but not just yet.

When he played his first full NHL season and scored 31 goals, all was well. The following year he endured a pretty drastic drop in production, perhaps the sophomore jinx? The year after that, his final year in Atlanta before coming to Winnipeg, his numbers improved and his all-around play improved, saying himself it was his best all around season. I think it's fair to say he made strides and growth that season. Which then brings us to just last season, where in my opinion a combination of injury and being relied upon in a role he isn't made nor good enough for, slowed him a bit. But, he did still accumulate some decent numbers. At this point, he's still learning and rounding out, even if he will be 25 in November.

Little will never be a #1 center in my opinion, not on a legitimate contender or playoff team anyway, but I do think he can be a legitimate, solid #2 center who can score 25 goals, 50-60 points. I think some upside and growth is still there in terms of solidifying what he can offer.

I certainly think this is a year where hopefully Little can stay healthy and become consistent. He won't be so heavily relied upon with the addition of Jokinen, perhaps he'll shoot a little more, etc. I still think we can see some growth and improvements in Bryan Little.
He definitely does have room to grow, but I am not sure which part of his game will take a jump. He isn't an adept passer and he doesn't generate a ton of shots. I am also not sure how much easier his minutes will be. If anything, I can see Noel working harder to give prime offensive minutes to Olli and Kane. Little is better defensively and on the PK than Olli. I fully expect him to do more heavy lifting in home games.

I'm not sure Little will ever match his 31 goal campaign. He scored on 18% of shots that year and had 12 powerplay goals. He has a combined 11 powerplay goals in the three years since. Less 5 on 5 ice and less PP time should mean less production.


Last edited by truck: 08-29-2012 at 01:28 PM.
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Old
08-29-2012, 02:15 PM
  #15
garret9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by truck View Post
He definitely does have room to grow, but I am not sure which part of his game will take a jump. He isn't an adept passer and he doesn't generate a ton of shots. I am also not sure how much easier his minutes will be. If anything, I can see Noel working harder to give prime offensive minutes to Olli and Kane. Little is better defensively and on the PK than Olli. I fully expect him to do more heavy lifting in home games.

I'm not sure Little will ever match his 31 goal campaign. He scored on 18% of shots that year and had 12 powerplay goals. He has a combined 11 powerplay goals in the three years since. Less 5 on 5 ice and less PP time should mean less production.
Turn down that 18% to a normal career avg 12% and remove most of those PP goals in that first season... and all of a sudden it looks like Little has progressed slowly as a goal scorer.

I agree though that Jokinen will steal some PP mins which will probably reduce some points (although our secondary PP last year was pretty decent in getting stuff done)... but at the same time I think offensively Little has progressed steadily, although slowly.

So the variables are:
1) How will Noel play the lines (will he keep 1st/3rd w/ heavy and 2nd w/ soft)?
2) Who will take the heavy and soft minutes between Jokinen and Little?
3) Will Little give me a Xmas present and finally shoot ~200 shots
4) How will PP time get divided?

My personal thoughts are:
1) Probably the same as last year
2) Probably similar to how Kane/Ladd switched off till Noel found the niche that worked best (which my guess is Little=toughs and Joki=softs)
3) Probably not but I will send a letter to Santa all the same
4) Probably Joki=1 and Little=2 since Joki has long standing PP success

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Old
08-29-2012, 02:22 PM
  #16
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Brian Little:

GOALS:
27

ASSISTS:
26

POINTS:
53

PIM:
41

PLUS/MINUS:
+3

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08-29-2012, 02:38 PM
  #17
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23g 23a

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Old
08-30-2012, 08:51 PM
  #18
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55-59 for Little, wouldn't be surprised to see him pass 60, and anything less than 50 would be disappointing.

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