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Old
09-10-2012, 12:42 PM
  #276
guyzeur
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Originally Posted by Security Guard Chang View Post
Turris was our best EV strength defensive forward this year.

Mike fisher put up his points in a significantly higher scoring period.

Turris will be a solid two way 50- 55 point player.

Stop arguing over nothing.
I agree

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09-10-2012, 12:57 PM
  #277
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Originally Posted by Security Guard Chang View Post
Turris was our best EV strength defensive forward this year.

Mike fisher put up his points in a significantly higher scoring period
.

Turris will be a solid two way 50- 55 point player.

Stop arguing over nothing.
Fisher putting up pts in a higher scoring period would also infer that his line mate's numbers were inflated, lending more credit to the superiority of Turris's mates argument. I think it's fair to say that it would balance out somewhat.

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09-10-2012, 01:29 PM
  #278
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You guys gotta lay off the points, fact of the matter is, it'll be a pretty big failure on turris part if he isn't a clearly better player in the offensive zone than fisher. The sens clearly think this too given the commitment they've made to him. I can't blame them I think well get better worth out of him than his contract.

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09-10-2012, 01:39 PM
  #279
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Originally Posted by CanadianHockey View Post
I don't consider it a shutdown role, so much as line matching. 1st vs 1st, 2nd vs 2nd, with some interlap between the two.

When I think 'shutdown' I think of a more traditional shutdown unit - which would be a single line composed of great defensive players playing a defense-first strategy, matched against an opponent's top line, with little to no emphasis on offensive play beyond killing time and taking advantage of any odd-man rushes (think how Montreal played during the 2010 playoffs, or when we rolled Kelly-Fisher-Alfredsson Phillips-Volchenkov against Ovechkin's line). We don't have one of those, so we're reliant on other ways to structure our ice time to avoid mismatches. Hence, line matching.

I don't think you can fairly say Turris would be a shutdown player on any other team in the league. We play a puck-possession, high offence/low defence system, and our 'shutdown' units are simply our best players (because we don't have the depth to form an actual shutdown unit).


At any rate, even if you do take the stance that, by MacLean's own words and by the QualComp, Turris played a 'shutdown' role, I still have a problem with MAK saying "the Turris line was this team's shutdown line" because the QualComp and MacLean's own words indicate Spezza's line and Turris's line were pretty much equally used in a 'shutdown' role.

I can agree with all of this.

Going forward I don't think this team is going to have a traditional "Shutdown line". I think we'll continue to use Spezza and Turris to neutralize the oppositions scoring lines, rather than this being any sort of waiting period for better defensive players to come along and form one.

The nice thing about having our two top lines being defensively responsible (the goal of all of this I assume) is that we can dictate when they play during games whether home or away. We won't have to hide them and juggle lines so much to avoid their stars or get our defensive guys out when their stars jump over the boards. Also it means that we won't have to waste a line of forwards on strictly defensive players leaving us the ability to have another puck possession offensive threat, albeit a lesser threat obviously.

On our team Spezza and Turris are our shutdown centres, while also being our offensive centres. The bonus is that it's making the two of them into well rounded players, which for Spezza especially is awesome.

I love it, as an on-ice product, I had a blast watching the team play last year. I hope it works out as planned, because if it does we start becoming a serious threat!

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09-10-2012, 02:16 PM
  #280
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Originally Posted by Minister of Offence View Post
You guys gotta lay off the points, fact of the matter is, it'll be a pretty big failure on turris part if he isn't a clearly better player in the offensive zone than fisher. The sens clearly think this too given the commitment they've made to him. I can't blame them I think well get better worth out of him than his contract.
Not sure I agree, Fisher received a 5 year deal at roughly 8% of the teams available space in 08/09. Turris got 5 at 5%. To put that in perspective, Kelly got 4 years at about 4.5% of the teams space in 08/09.

It's clear the team valued Fisher more then Turris, and rightly so as he was far more proven, but I think they'll be happy if he matches Fisher's output in the offensive zone, and thrilled if he exceeds it.

Edit: just remembered, this doesn't take into account a potential drop in the cap with the new collective aggreement coming soon (wishful thinking?) which the team likely anticipates, so Turris's % of Cap space will likely be a bit higher, and the team likely negotiated with that in mind.


Last edited by Micklebot: 09-10-2012 at 03:08 PM.
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Old
09-10-2012, 02:25 PM
  #281
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Originally Posted by Ice-Tray View Post
I can agree with all of this.

Going forward I don't think this team is going to have a traditional "Shutdown line". I think we'll continue to use Spezza and Turris to neutralize the oppositions scoring lines, rather than this being any sort of waiting period for better defensive players to come along and form one.

The nice thing about having our two top lines being defensively responsible (the goal of all of this I assume) is that we can dictate when they play during games whether home or away. We won't have to hide them and juggle lines so much to avoid their stars or get our defensive guys out when their stars jump over the boards. Also it means that we won't have to waste a line of forwards on strictly defensive players leaving us the ability to have another puck possession offensive threat, albeit a lesser threat obviously.

On our team Spezza and Turris are our shutdown centres, while also being our offensive centres. The bonus is that it's making the two of them into well rounded players, which for Spezza especially is awesome.

I love it, as an on-ice product, I had a blast watching the team play last year. I hope it works out as planned, because if it does we start becoming a serious threat!
I think the benefit of a true shut down line is the additional "frustration effect" it has when the opposing teams top line is ineffective. For evidence of this just look at our playoff run in 07.


Can't argue with having your top lines be 2-way lines, but I don't think a true shut-down line is ever a waste when done right.

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09-10-2012, 03:50 PM
  #282
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Originally Posted by Micklebot View Post
I think the benefit of a true shut down line is the additional "frustration effect" it has when the opposing teams top line is ineffective. For evidence of this just look at our playoff run in 07.


Can't argue with having your top lines be 2-way lines, but I don't think a true shut-down line is ever a waste when done right.
Defense is a team concept, we currently don't have those shutdown D that we had in 2007.

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09-10-2012, 04:12 PM
  #283
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Originally Posted by BonkTastic View Post
You know, call me crazy, but usually "shutdown players" receive some PK time. Kyle Turris averaged 0:06 of PK time a game. In fact, of ANY FORWARD ON THE TEAM who received even a second of PK time, Turris received the LEAST amount of PK time. Peter Regin only played 10 games in the entire season, yet had more actual PK minutes than Turris did. In fact, he had 48% more total PK minutes than Turris. And he only played 10 games.

"Shutdown players" usually get more than six seconds of PK time per game, on average. Also, they usually aren't almost dead last on their teams in PK time.
Erik Karlsson: ''Hello''

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09-10-2012, 04:22 PM
  #284
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Erik Karlsson is playing what 8-10 minutes more per game. Its hard to give a guy PK time when he is already playing 25 + per game.

Also, that was Turris first legit shot in the NHL. Im sure it wasnt there intention to bring this guy into first unit PK from arrival. I think he will get more opportunity this year. Hell with that contract, I don't think its an unfair assessment either.

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09-10-2012, 04:38 PM
  #285
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Originally Posted by TSA0402 View Post
Erik Karlsson is playing what 8-10 minutes more per game. Its hard to give a guy PK time when he is already playing 25 + per game.

Also, that was Turris first legit shot in the NHL. Im sure it wasnt there intention to bring this guy into first unit PK from arrival. I think he will get more opportunity this year. Hell with that contract, I don't think its an unfair assessment either.
Pretty sure it was just Paul MacLean's strategy he brought from his days in Detroit.

Don't tire your best players on the PK. Datsyuk, Alfredsson, Karlsson, Lidstrom. None of these played above a minute and a half of PK. (except lidstrom, barely)

Send role-players and journeymen on the PK.

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09-10-2012, 04:50 PM
  #286
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Quote:
Originally Posted by guyzeur View Post
Defense is a team concept, we currently don't have those shutdown D that we had in 2007.
I think you misunderstood me. I meant the effect the Pahlsson line had on us, not our shut down D pair.

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09-10-2012, 04:55 PM
  #287
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Originally Posted by Immanuel View Post
Pretty sure it was just Paul MacLean's strategy he brought from his days in Detroit.

Don't tire your best players on the PK. Datsyuk, Alfredsson, Karlsson, Lidstrom. None of these played above a minute and a half of PK. (except lidstrom, barely)

Send role-players and journeymen on the PK.
Aside from Michalek and Alfredsson, I think you have it right. Guys like O'Brien, Daugavins and Condra are not only terrific penalty killers, but must rely on that fact in order to remain with the team.

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09-10-2012, 05:11 PM
  #288
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OT, but what the heck... it's summer and hockey isn't going to start on time.

The list I posted a page ago was supposed to be a response to a Leaf fan asking when a star player breaks out.

As I look at it, I can't decide which of two things about it is more aggravating.

Quote:
I've watched Ottawa draft/develop quite a few 1st line talents. Many showed their talents early on. Perhaps that has skewed my view, but if a high pick doesn't make the NHL by 19-20yo and show 1st line ability by 21-22... I will typically write him off as a potential 1st liner.

Age, season = stats, rank amongst NHL forwards

Alexei Yashin
19yo, S1 = 83-30-49-79, 36th overall

Daniel Alfredsson
22yo, S1 = 82-26-35-61, 59th overall

Pavol Demitra
22yo, S? = 61-22-30-52, 57th overall

Marian Hossa
20yo, S2 = 78-29-27-56, 59th overall

Martin Havlat
21yo, S3 = 67-24-35-59, 56th overall

Jason Spezza
20yo, S2 = 78-22-33-55, 47th overall

1) Obviously Pavol Demitra. We couldn't wait until he turned 22yo? We couldn't give him some ice time and see what happens? I mean, it's not like St.Louis really had him long enough to do any "developing". Nope, they just played him and he started tearing it up.

2) Is the guy who isn't on the list. 19yo and 49th overall amongst forwards probably should have been the second best "break out" season on the list above... if his name belonged anywhere near theirs; which it doesn't! Who is he?

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09-10-2012, 05:41 PM
  #289
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Originally Posted by trentmccleary View Post
OT, but what the heck... it's summer and hockey isn't going to start on time.

The list I posted a page ago was supposed to be a response to a Leaf fan asking when a star player breaks out.

As I look at it, I can't decide which of two things about it is more aggravating.




1) Obviously Pavol Demitra. We couldn't wait until he turned 22yo? We couldn't give him some ice time and see what happens? I mean, it's not like St.Louis really had him long enough to do any "developing". Nope, they just played him and he started tearing it up.

2) Is the guy who isn't on the list. 19yo and 49th overall amongst forwards probably should have been the second best "break out" season on the list above... if his name belonged anywhere near theirs; which it doesn't! Who is he?
I have to assume you are talking about Daigle but he finished T99 in scoring as a 19 year old.

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09-10-2012, 05:45 PM
  #290
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Originally Posted by Micklebot View Post
Not sure I agree, Fisher received a 5 year deal at roughly 8% of the teams available space in 08/09. Turris got 5 at 5%. To put that in perspective, Kelly got 4 years at about 4.5% of the teams space in 08/09.

It's clear the team valued Fisher more then Turris, and rightly so as he was far more proven, but I think they'll be happy if he matches Fisher's output in the offensive zone, and thrilled if he exceeds it.

Edit: just remembered, this doesn't take into account a potential drop in the cap with the new collective aggreement coming soon (wishful thinking?) which the team likely anticipates, so Turris's % of Cap space will likely be a bit higher, and the team likely negotiated with that in mind.
Tim Murray has clearly used the words 1st line center and Kyle turris in the same sentence. They think he can challenge for 30 goals in any given season. He *should* be a better fit on 2nd line center over fisher.

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09-10-2012, 07:05 PM
  #291
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Originally Posted by TrueGrit View Post
I have to assume you are talking about Daigle but he finished T99 in scoring as a 19 year old.
It was Daigle. He was 18yo in his rookie season, 1 of only 2 18 yo's that the Sens ever kept up all year with Bonk. He was 19yo in the shortened season and finished 49th among forwards in scoring.

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09-10-2012, 09:42 PM
  #292
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Turris was a top pick for a reason - he's got great offensive instincts. Should have been a 1C. He's definitely got better offensive upside than Fisher ever did. I think we can and should expect Turris to be a consistent fifty+ point player if he keeps up his play. That isn't a knock on Fisher - he was a solid 2C for us.

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09-10-2012, 09:53 PM
  #293
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Originally Posted by Elch View Post
Aside from Michalek and Alfredsson, I think you have it right. Guys like O'Brien, Daugavins and Condra are not only terrific penalty killers, but must rely on that fact in order to remain with the team.
didn't read your post but I do have that hat

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09-10-2012, 10:19 PM
  #294
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Originally Posted by MandyAlwaysKnows View Post
Erik Karlsson: ''Hello''
Well, clearly the issue is that you and I have very different definitions of the word "shutdown". I loves me some Karlsson, but I don't think I would call him "shutdown" in a million years. You can be good defensively and not be "shutdown", but IMO "shutdown" is a style of play, a style Turris/ Karlsson most definitely are not.


Which is fine. As long as we're clear that the issue is the etymology of the word "shutdown", and not a differing opinion on the player.

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09-10-2012, 10:42 PM
  #295
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Originally Posted by BonkTastic View Post
Well, clearly the issue is that you and I have very different definitions of the word "shutdown". I loves me some Karlsson, but I don't think I would call him "shutdown" in a million years. You can be good defensively and not be "shutdown", but IMO "shutdown" is a style of play, a style Turris/ Karlsson most definitely are not.


Which is fine. As long as we're clear that the issue is the etymology of the word "shutdown", and not a differing opinion on the player.
Yeah I consider shutdown playing against top players

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09-10-2012, 10:59 PM
  #296
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Originally Posted by MandyAlwaysKnows View Post
Yeah I consider shutdown playing against top players
That's a terrible definition.

Brett Hull was never a shutdown player. Or Pavel Bure. Or a litany of stars from the 80's and 90's.

Ryan Getzlaf. Derek Roy. Tomas Vanek. Alex Tanguay. Olli Jokinen. Pat Kane. Rick Nash. Jordan Eberle. Tomas Fleischmann. Jeff Carter. Dany Heatley. Brian Gionta. Zach Parise. Marian Gaborik. John Tavares. Jaromir Jagr. James Neal. Steve Stamkos. Phil Kessel. Alex Semin.

There's like, what: 20 current guys off the top of my head? All play against top players. None, and I mean NONE of them are "shutdown players".

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09-10-2012, 11:09 PM
  #297
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Originally Posted by BonkTastic View Post
That's a terrible definition.

Brett Hull was never a shutdown player. Or Pavel Bure. Or a litany of stars from the 80's and 90's.

Ryan Getzlaf. Derek Roy. Tomas Vanek. Alex Tanguay. Olli Jokinen. Pat Kane. Rick Nash. Jordan Eberle. Tomas Fleischmann. Jeff Carter. Dany Heatley. Brian Gionta. Zach Parise. Marian Gaborik. John Tavares. Jaromir Jagr. James Neal. Steve Stamkos. Phil Kessel. Alex Semin.

There's like, what: 20 current guys off the top of my head? All play against top players. None, and I mean NONE of them are "shutdown players".
?

A lot of those guys don't.

And maybe a complementary winger on a shutdown line, I wouldn't consider shutdown. I don't really like branding wingers 'shutdown', unless they're like Landeskog.

But a guy like Turris who purposefully put out there against the likes of Stamkos, etc. I would consider shutdown.

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09-10-2012, 11:11 PM
  #298
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Originally Posted by trentmccleary View Post
It was Daigle. He was 18yo in his rookie season, 1 of only 2 18 yo's that the Sens ever kept up all year with Bonk. He was 19yo in the shortened season and finished 49th among forwards in scoring.
Ah, I see where you're coming from. Daigle was 20 years old for ~80% of the shortened season though


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09-10-2012, 11:19 PM
  #299
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Originally Posted by BonkTastic View Post
That's a terrible definition.

Brett Hull was never a shutdown player. Or Pavel Bure. Or a litany of stars from the 80's and 90's.

Ryan Getzlaf. Derek Roy. Tomas Vanek. Alex Tanguay. Olli Jokinen. Pat Kane. Rick Nash. Jordan Eberle. Tomas Fleischmann. Jeff Carter. Dany Heatley. Brian Gionta. Zach Parise. Marian Gaborik. John Tavares. Jaromir Jagr. James Neal. Steve Stamkos. Phil Kessel. Alex Semin.

There's like, what: 20 current guys off the top of my head? All play against top players. None, and I mean NONE of them are "shutdown players".
Off the top of my head: Kessel, Tavares, Kane, Stamkos, Neal, Semin, Eberle, Carter, Tanguay DO NOT play against top players. At all. I could probably disprove most of the rest if I actually checked. The ones I know for sure that do in that list are Jokinen, Nash and possibly Fleischmann.

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09-10-2012, 11:41 PM
  #300
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Originally Posted by MandyAlwaysKnows View Post
?

A lot of those guys don't.

... I don't really like branding wingers 'shutdown', unless they're like Landeskog.
A lot of them actually do ( a couple didn't, when I actualy bothered to look at the numbers), but OK, let's just look at centers, then.

- Ryan Getzlaf: highest QualComp of any center on the Ducks.
- Derek Roy: Highest qualcomp among Sabres centers. Know who had the 2nd highest among Sabres forwards? Nathan Gerbe: also not a shutdown player.
- Olli Jokinen: highest Qualcomp among Flames Centers.
- Tomas Fleischmann: 3rd highest forward after Goc and Samuelsson. The same Samuelsson who is so slow now, there is no way you can consider him a shutdown anything.
- Jeff Carter: top Qualcomp player on Columbus. Top guy in LA when he was there.
- Claude Giroux: top Qualcomp center.

Also:
- Horcoff: highest QoC among Oilers forwards. Not shutdown.
- Kulemin: highest QoC among Leafs Centers. Definitely not a shutdown guy.

And probably more, if I cared to keep looking.



ALSO: some of the best shutdown players in NHL HISTORY are wingers, don't be so quick to dismiss them.

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