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AIH: Buy One, Get None: What Will the Winnipeg Jets Do Without Bogosian?

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Old
08-31-2012, 10:46 AM
  #1
garret9
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AIH: Buy One, Get None: What Will the Winnipeg Jets Do Without Bogosian?

Written by Garret (me) looking at what kind of hole the Bogosian injury creates (given a full season of course).

http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2012/...-zach-bogosian

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08-31-2012, 11:05 AM
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Hank Chinaski
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I think Michal Roszival is someone worth serious consideration. He's a righty, and could probably be an effective replacement for Zach's ES and SH minutes. Once Bogo returns, he could be dropped to the third pairing with Stuart.

Much of it will depend on the CBA negotiations, and how Bogosian's prognosis looks following the surgery. I'd be fine going to war with our in-house replacements for a month or thereabouts, anything significantly longer is going to become problematic.

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08-31-2012, 12:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski View Post
I think Michal Roszival is someone worth serious consideration. He's a righty, and could probably be an effective replacement for Zach's ES and SH minutes. Once Bogo returns, he could be dropped to the third pairing with Stuart.

Much of it will depend on the CBA negotiations, and how Bogosian's prognosis looks following the surgery. I'd be fine going to war with our in-house replacements for a month or thereabouts, anything significantly longer is going to become problematic.
per @BrownScottTN rehab expected 4-6 months

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08-31-2012, 12:53 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski View Post
I think Michal Roszival is someone worth serious consideration. He's a righty, and could probably be an effective replacement for Zach's ES and SH minutes. Once Bogo returns, he could be dropped to the third pairing with Stuart.

Much of it will depend on the CBA negotiations, and how Bogosian's prognosis looks following the surgery. I'd be fine going to war with our in-house replacements for a month or thereabouts, anything significantly longer is going to become problematic.
I am curious about how the pairings will look without Bogo.

Stuart - Hainsey
Clitsome - Postma

or

Clitsome - Hainsey
Stuart - Postma

Have to think Clitty and the Postman could do some fun offensive thing against sheltered competition, but I'm also hopeful Clitty can find some consistency under Huddy. I still think he has a little more upside than Stu.

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08-31-2012, 01:01 PM
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Hank Chinaski
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
per @BrownScottTN rehab expected 4-6 months
I know, but that's still a lot of uncertainty with respect to man games lost. Some reports are even saying 3 months. If the season starts in December, there's a chance that Bogosian misses 0 games.

Having said that, I think the Jets need to start thinking about long-term replacements in the top 4, regardless of what Bogo's timeline is.

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08-31-2012, 01:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by truck View Post
I am curious about how the pairings will look without Bogo.

Stuart - Hainsey
Clitsome - Postma

or

Clitsome - Hainsey
Stuart - Postma

Have to think Clitty and the Postman could do some fun offensive thing against sheltered competition, but I'm also hopeful Clitty can find some consistency under Huddy. I still think he has a little more upside than Stu.
If I were coach Noel I'd atleast try Clitsome on the second pairing. His offensive abilities far surpass Stuart, which can translate to better defense in the long run.
I would probably put Stuart above on PK though for two reasons:
1) the PK is a tad different than 5v5... without any stats to back me up (yet), I've hypothesized forwards push the play on PK far greater than defense
2) neither are big minutes dman yet so spreading out the TOI between the two might be best

Quote from Dave Tippet:

Quote:
"We had a player that was supposed to be a great, shut-down defenseman. He was supposedly the be-all, end-all of defensemen. But when you did a 10-game analysis of him, you found out he was defending all the time because he can't move the puck.

"Then we had another guy, who supposedly couldn't defend a lick. Well, he was defending only 20 percent of the time because he's making good plays out of our end. He may not be the strongest defender, but he's only doing it 20 percent of the time. So the equation works out better the other way. I ended up trading the other defenseman."

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08-31-2012, 01:20 PM
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
If I were coach Noel I'd atleast try Clitsome on the second pairing. His offensive abilities far surpass Stuart, which can translate to better defense in the long run.
I would probably put Stuart above on PK though for two reasons:
1) the PK is a tad different than 5v5... without any stats to back me up (yet), I've hypothesized forwards push the play on PK far greater than defense
2) neither are big minutes dman yet so spreading out the TOI between the two might be best

Quote from Dave Tippet:
Love the Tippet quote. Pretty much sums up my thoughts on the issue.

Puck possession is key for defensemen.

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08-31-2012, 07:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
If I were coach Noel I'd atleast try Clitsome on the second pairing. His offensive abilities far surpass Stuart, which can translate to better defense in the long run.
I would probably put Stuart above on PK though for two reasons:
1) the PK is a tad different than 5v5... without any stats to back me up (yet), I've hypothesized forwards push the play on PK far greater than defense
2) neither are big minutes dman yet so spreading out the TOI between the two might be best

Quote from Dave Tippet:
Quote:
Originally Posted by truck View Post
Love the Tippet quote. Pretty much sums up my thoughts on the issue.

Puck possession is key for defensemen.
Great Tippett quote garret9!!!

I hate that we are going to miss Bogo but **** happens and out of the loss comes opprotunity. last year that opprotunity was something Bogo seized and ran with. We don't have anyone with his skill set to fill the void but it could give a real opprotunity to a guy like Postma on the 2nd PP unit. Huddy will have to earn his pay this year and I hope someone steps up and shows us what they are made of. It is probably going to have to get handled by committe unless we make a trade.


Last edited by Hank Chinaski: 08-31-2012 at 08:14 PM. Reason: profanity filter
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09-01-2012, 10:06 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
If I were coach Noel I'd atleast try Clitsome on the second pairing. His offensive abilities far surpass Stuart, which can translate to better defense in the long run.
I would probably put Stuart above on PK though for two reasons:
1) the PK is a tad different than 5v5... without any stats to back me up (yet), I've hypothesized forwards push the play on PK far greater than defense
2) neither are big minutes dman yet so spreading out the TOI between the two might be best

Quote from Dave Tippet:
Clitsome looked good in the first couple of games he played for the Jets. The more he played the more he looked like the number 7 or 8 defence man on the worst team in the league which he was in Columbus. Sorry guys but Clitsome is an AHL player.

Jets would be better off with Redmond or Postma.

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09-01-2012, 01:31 PM
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Originally Posted by sipowicz View Post
Clitsome looked good in the first couple of games he played for the Jets. The more he played the more he looked like the number 7 or 8 defence man on the worst team in the league which he was in Columbus. Sorry guys but Clitsome is an AHL player.

Jets would be better off with Redmond or Postma.
I would be careful with selecting your samples to create your opinions.
1) Clitsome only played 12 games for the Jets last year and played mostly at Bogosian's role (shutdown).
2) Clitsome wasn't a 7th/8th for CBJ and, although he was sent through waivers, it looks like they were in process of building one of the best D-core depth (they have a very scary 1-8 now)
3) NHL experience > AHL experience

Neither Redmond nor Postma were trusted for shutdown role in the AHL; why would they be the best option for the NHL?

I'll continue this in a moment but here:


Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Trying to find a patch for Bogosian's injury

Grant Clitsome
YearPOS GP TOI/60 CORSION RelCORSI CORSIQoC RelQoC OZS G/60 A1/60 A2/60 P/60
2011-2012 LD 63 13.84 -3.30 -0.2 -0.624 -0.426 49.7 0.21 0.28 0.28 0.76
2010-2011 LD 31 15.47 2.63 -0.4 0.826 -0.067 63.0 0.25 0.38 0.50 1.13
2009-2010 LD 11 12.95 1.26 15.3 3.661 -1.629 47.4 0.42 0.42 0.42 1.26

Mark Stuart
YearPOS GP TOI/60 CORSION RelCORSI CORSIQoC RelQoC OZS G/60 A1/60 A2/60 P/60
2011-2012 LD 80 14.04 -3.42 -6.2 -0.700 -0.103 50.2 0.05 0.21 0.37 0.64
2010-2011 LD 54 13.38 -4.32 -9.2 0.131 -0.280 50.7 0.17 0.25 0.08 0.50
2009-2010 LD 56 15.21 -1.48 -12.5 -0.919 -0.202 52.9 0.07 0.14 0.07 0.28

Derek Meech
YearPOS GP TOI/60 CORSION RelCORSI CORSIQoC RelQoC OZS G/60 A1/60 A2/60 P/60
2011-2012 LD 2 10.04 17.93 10.4 1.479 0.347 57.1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2010-2011 LD 49 10.44 3.52 -5.2 0.121 -0.584 58.3 0.12 0.35 0.12 0.59
2009-2010 LD 41 9.53 11.05 -4.6 -0.669 -0.812 62.8 0.31 0.61 0.00 0.92
Clitsome looks by far the best of the three when it comes to creating offense.


Last edited by garret9: 09-01-2012 at 04:35 PM.
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09-01-2012, 02:52 PM
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I'm thinking Meech would be a better choice then Clitty.

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09-01-2012, 05:28 PM
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I'm perfectly comfortable with the Jets giving some young guys a shot or using Clitsome/Meech more. Even if they don't work out they get the experience, we get a better idea of what we have waiting/developing and it's only the first half of the season. If we were looking at filling a hole for a playoff run, my opinion would be somewhat different. As is, I'm not sure the Jets need to give up anything in a trade to fill a hole for the first half of the season, especially when depth on defense is supposedly an organizational strength.

Personally, I also have faith that Clitsome can be an effective two-way defender in the NHL. I realize we all have seen very little of him though and the opinions of him on this board seem to vary greatly.

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09-01-2012, 05:45 PM
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Originally Posted by vBurmi View Post
I'm perfectly comfortable with the Jets giving some young guys a shot or using Clitsome/Meech more. Even if they don't work out they get the experience, we get a better idea of what we have waiting/developing and it's only the first half of the season. If we were looking at filling a hole for a playoff run, my opinion would be somewhat different. As is, I'm not sure the Jets need to give up anything in a trade to fill a hole for the first half of the season, especially when depth on defense is supposedly an organizational strength.

Personally, I also have faith that Clitsome can be an effective two-way defender in the NHL. I realize we all have seen very little of him though and the opinions of him on this board seem to vary greatly.
Yea I think they need to keep all options open. The minutes Zach is vacating allow young prospects a chance to step up. The good news is we should be much better at team defense this year and we do have a real shut down third line and hopefully that will help offset Zach's loss a bit from the front end, and several of our D prospects can fill out portions of Zach's minutes. it's not going to be easy but let's all hope for a silver lining to appear.

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09-01-2012, 08:49 PM
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Yea I think they need to keep all options open. The minutes Zach is vacating allow young prospects a chance to step up. The good news is we should be much better at team defense this year and we do have a real shut down third line and hopefully that will help offset Zach's loss a bit from the front end, and several of our D prospects can fill out portions of Zach's minutes. it's not going to be easy but let's all hope for a silver lining to appear.
Good points. Reducing shots against is a team effort... And 3 of Poni/Antro/Welly/Burmi sounds like an upgrade on GST for that.

I think they will most likely use a mix of Stuart and Clitsome for those minutes. And then third + 7th will be a combination of 3 of Postma/Meech/Redmond/UFA.

I still think they will sign a UFA or pick up a waiver. Our depth (in number of options) was downgraded with loses over the offseason. More realistically it will be a Jones like signing for someone who will stradle AHL and NHL mins.

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09-01-2012, 09:45 PM
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Originally Posted by HPsauce View Post
I'm thinking Meech would be a better choice then Clitty.

Meech-Hains
Stuy-Postma
Meech could surprise us all and have a great camp and start in the top six, but why don't we give Kulda a chance.

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09-01-2012, 10:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vBurmi View Post
I'm perfectly comfortable with the Jets giving some young guys a shot or using Clitsome/Meech more. Even if they don't work out they get the experience, we get a better idea of what we have waiting/developing and it's only the first half of the season. If we were looking at filling a hole for a playoff run, my opinion would be somewhat different. As is, I'm not sure the Jets need to give up anything in a trade to fill a hole for the first half of the season, especially when depth on defense is supposedly an organizational strength.

Personally, I also have faith that Clitsome can be an effective two-way defender in the NHL. I realize we all have seen very little of him though and the opinions of him on this board seem to vary greatly.
I think people are jumping to conclusions a bit on Clitsome. We saw very good and quite poor from him.

The good news is that very good part shows he is capable of playing that level, and the quite poor part suggests he has some confidence issues. He might be one of those guys who gets down on himself when he makes a couple of mistakes and it spirals out of control (speaking from experience).

The good news about all of this is we have Charlie Huddy. He is showing his worth already and IMHO will continue to do so. I expect a more confident and even keel to Clitsome this season.

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09-02-2012, 12:31 AM
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I think people are jumping to conclusions a bit on Clitsome. We saw very good and quite poor from him.

The good news is that very good part shows he is capable of playing that level, and the quite poor part suggests he has some confidence issues. He might be one of those guys who gets down on himself when he makes a couple of mistakes and it spirals out of control (speaking from experience).

The good news about all of this is we have Charlie Huddy. He is showing his worth already and IMHO will continue to do so. I expect a more confident and even keel to Clitsome this season.
I agree Jet there is also something to be said for starting the year off with a team from the get go. At least Clitsome showed "good stretches" where he looked at place against tough competition. also to Garret and Truck's point made by Tippett, Grant had a very nice stretch pass in his bag of tricks (making good plys out of our end), and he also had a physical edge to his game. opprotunity is a strange thing and I am often pretty suprised how teams can absorb injuries. all that being said I think Garret could be right though depending on how much of the season is lost we may need to make a trade for a top 4 D asset. Let's face it The Haines is a UFA after this season and on top of that Lord help us if we absorb other injuries to our top 4. Lather, rinse, repeat 2011-2012 season

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09-02-2012, 07:58 AM
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Meech could surprise us all and have a great camp and start in the top six, but why don't we give Kulda a chance.
I really wanted to see more of Kulda in the NHL to see what he could have done.

Sure he wasn't going to bring much offense of any kind, but we could use a tough, defensive, SOB to take some minutes now.

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09-02-2012, 11:37 PM
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I have a feeling that Redmond will take the next step and surpass Postma on the depth chart. Unless they bring in a vet like Martinek, Rozsival or Kubina, (unlikely for any of these) the spot will be Redmond's to lose.

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09-03-2012, 08:35 AM
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I have a feeling that Redmond will take the next step and surpass Postma on the depth chart. Unless they bring in a vet like Martinek, Rozsival or Kubina, (unlikely for any of these) the spot will be Redmond's to lose.
I wouldn't be blown away if this happened eventually, but I think Postman's 1 way deal will be a big obstacle to overcome this year. It is also worth nothing that Redmond wore down last year. He fell into the press box for a good chunk of the Caps stretch run. TNSE may want to see him sustain his play before calling him up full time.

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09-04-2012, 07:21 AM
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I don't see Redmond ever really passing the mailman. Redmond has a complete game as a defenceman, more complete than postma. But postma is going to give you guys an offensive game from the back end that you never really expected. When this guy shoots, he scores. The only thing is you will all find yourself yelling at him 10 times a game to shoot, and he will pass it away or dump it in.

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09-04-2012, 11:33 AM
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I would seriously consider signing Cam BArker to a 1-2 year deal. Hometown boy, 3rd overall pick. I know his production has dropped over the recent years, but still a worthwhile risk in my opinion. I'd also like to see/think Hainsey and his contract should be traded at the deadline, so if Bogo's back by then, Barker could now slip into Hainsey's spot. I think playing at home will boost his production and give him greater value. Retain or trade, but his value should go up IMO.

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09-04-2012, 11:59 AM
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Maybe now we'll finally re-sign Postma

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09-04-2012, 12:31 PM
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Maybe we should give Phil Housely a call, see if he's busy....

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09-04-2012, 01:23 PM
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I would seriously consider signing Cam BArker to a 1-2 year deal. Hometown boy, 3rd overall pick. I know his production has dropped over the recent years, but still a worthwhile risk in my opinion. I'd also like to see/think Hainsey and his contract should be traded at the deadline, so if Bogo's back by then, Barker could now slip into Hainsey's spot. I think playing at home will boost his production and give him greater value. Retain or trade, but his value should go up IMO.
I sure hope we don't end up with Barker in a top 4 role.

I would love to have him, just so we could have picks 3-6 from that draft, but I wouldn't want him in the starting lineup. He is a 7th or 8th defender at this point.

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