I have to admit in the beginning of last season I didn't understand or like advanced stats but I am really starting to enjoy them as long as garret is doing the work . For me my eye was more than enough to convict fat Buff of abandonment as I watched him coast back into a play late that he had overcommitted in the O zone on for the umpteenth time hanging Toby out to dry. It drove me crazy and I was convinced he was a liability. I wish Buff was more fit but his numbers are much better than I thought they would be and I don't think we can afford to give up what he brings to our offense.........yet
Here's the rub for me on advanced stats vs the naked eye...........I actually love being proved wrong and I have found that my eye is pretty solid but when it is covered with rose colored lenses (or a tainted lenses) it doesn't work that well. I thought GST was better than they were but they really sucked, or should I say they were asked to do too much. I love Stuie but he is a liability if he is asked to fill in on the top 4. Toby is very good statistically and the fact he is small is not nearly as big a deal as some make it out to be. I think The Haines gets sold short big time on our board (maybe its to do with his contract) but I would like to see us sign him up to a 2 year extension and weld him to Bogo when Zach gets back. If not we better replace him with a equal level shut down veteran defender. These are a just a few of the things I was wrong about by "just watching" last year.
I am now a big fan of the advanced stats and am trying to learn more and more.........for now I am reading all the posts and I think I get it now.......next stage in my development is when I am able to go to "behind the net" and establish criteria and run scenarios. A perfect example of how to use them well was over on the main board on a Montreal Winnipeg thread there was some comparison of Bogo and Subban and a Habs poster showed some advanced stats that seemed to prove Subban was better than Bogo and Garret did a very good job of going deeper on the numbers and showing allot of the stats were skewed by the fact Subban has a stable talented D partner in Gorges that really helped him and if you looked closer at Bogo his numbers were every bit as good when he was playing with Hainsey but took a beating when he played with Stuie. I am not doing it justice but it was a great debate and I learned allot.
They are not the end all be all (and most advanced stats guys would tell you this) but they are a great tool to add to what you see.
one last thing: Players make mistakes and we can get down on them.....we forget very few guys are truly elite so it's great to be able to have advanced stats to measure a player like Toby when posters are getting down on him. You look closer and he is a very good defenseman and he is definatly top pairing level and you realize he probably gets judged harshly by some of our posters. Sure he is not a prime Chris Pronger but you know what, there just are not many prime Chris Prongers out there and that is why it is nice to be able to compare him to others through advanced stats.
Agreed. Stats are never the whole story and I don't like it when they are presented as definitive, unless they are clearly so. That's why I try to avoid definitive conclusions in my analysis.
That said, stats are part of every story and shouldn't be denied. Of course, how they are weighted is open for debate, but no matter how you break it down, most stats are just results and at some points results can't be denied. More information, more detailed results and what not are always a plus IMO.
Nah, the trading was just to give a taste of how well he has progressed compared to his peers since he was drafted.
I just was a bit confused when it seemed like you thought that Kane was a disappointment and would have been much better with some seasoning in the juniors.
And yeah, the advanced stats confuses me too! I probably should learn them, since I like stats and am a fast learner, but I just am way too lazy!
They best "advanced" stats (IMO) are actually quite simple and straight forward:
Corsi / Fenwick: Fancy way of saying shot differentials (+/-) with _____ player on ice. This includes missed shots, posts and sometimes blocked shots. This is a great indicator of puck possession. Positive ratio usually means ______ player spends the majority of his time in the offensive zone.
QualComp (QoC): A number figure based on how much ice time _____ player's opposition plays. If _____ gets matched against top pairing D and 1st lines, this number is very high.
Offensive/defensive zone starts: Simply shows where a player is most likely to start a shift. This along with QoC show how coaches use players and can help explain good or bad results. Favorable results despite tough minutes indicates big time defensive proficiency.
On Ice Shooting %: Simply what percentage of shots go in the opposing net with ____ player on the ice. This can highlight good or bad luck
Scoring/60 minutes: Makes comparisons easier when you are looking at a 3rd liner vs a 1st liner.
In Burmi's last 43 games of pro hockey (21 Jets, 22 Ice Caps) he has 3 goals and 13 assists for 16 points.
Jets 21 games, 1 goal, 4 assists
Caps 22 games, 2 goals, 9 assists
Remember his first 21 games last year where he had 4 goals and 8 assists for 12 points.
Remember when Bryan Little had 5 and 5 for 10 over that stretch.
Remember when Blake Wheeler had 1 and 10 for 11 over that stretch.
Cherry picking small sample sizes does nobody any good.
Edit
Fun with sample sizes...
2012 Rookie of the year candidate Adam Henrique (who was drafted in 2008 by the way) scored 1 goal and had 12 assists in his last 21 games last year. He has 8 points in 16 AHL games this year (identical to Burmi's pace). He is a bum. The Devils should trade him.
Remember his first 21 games last year where he had 4 goals and 8 assists for 12 points.
Remember when Bryan Little had 5 and 5 for 10 over that stretch.
Remember when Blake Wheeler had 1 and 10 for 11 over that stretch.
Cherry picking small sample sizes does nobody any good.
Edit
Fun with sample sizes...
2012 Rookie of the year candidate Adam Henrique (who was drafted in 2008 by the way) scored 1 goal and had 12 assists in his last 21 games last year. He has 8 points in 16 AHL games this year (identical to Burmi's pace). He is a bum. The Devils should trade him.
I was hard on Wheeler in that time period, some of the other posters here credit me with turning his season around.
Burmi will be a dandy next year and for years to come. Lets not panic here folks.
I don't see too many people here panicking, TBH. I look at it this way: if last year was his first year in the NHL, most people would be very happy with his production. Worst case scenario, he'll be a killer PK guy that chips in offensively on a 3rd line. Nothing wrong with that, but my opinion is that he'll continue his offensive progression when we start playing NHL hockey again.
Good point. I loved watching him play the first 20 games last year and I think with maturity you'll see consistency and he will end up being a 20+ goal and 50+ point guy.
I don't get the bash Burmi logic either. If there was a season this year and Schiefele scored as many points as Burmi did last year and was a regular on the pk I guess I would think that was pretty decent.
I think most of us agree he shouldn't have been in the NHL as soon as he was, but because he was some people think he should be farther along in his development. I don't understand this thought process. If that's how it worked we should want to have all our picks in the NHL as soon as possible, because it would be the best for their development.
I think we need to give him at least a few more years before we declare him to be nothing more than a good third line center. He has the natural ability, I think with the proper linemates and a bit of time he'll do well.
I also want to say something about the players I think he needs to play with. I thought he and Kane played very poorly together and their styles were not compatible.
I really think he and Little should play together. Burmi is good at holding the puck and moving around the offensive zone until he finds someone open. Little is really good at moving around the zone, getting a bit of room to get a shot off. I personally think it's Little's best skill. He's exactly what I think Burmi needs in a winger. I think those two with Ladd to camp in front of the net, do the dirt work, will be a very good line.
When he doesn't have wingers who will move around to get open for a pass, he holds onto the puck and ends up losing it.
I got a little carried away with all that but I still have lots of hope for Alex.
IMO, this is great news. I doubt seriously it has anything to do with the lockout, Burmi seems to mention that in the convo I see there (not that he'd be able to say anything even if it did), but to voluntarily head back to Winnipeg during a couple of days off is a positive sign, visiting friends or whatnot. Russians (and Fins and Swedes) always did seem to enjoy Jets 1.0, could it be that our cold drab working class city appeals to Russians, feels at least somewhat like home Probably reading too much into it, but damn if there isn't anything else to talk about right now...
Burmistrov may never be the star we hoped (or he may be it's still too early) but he will be an effective NHL player for quite a long time, and him putting down roots in Winnipeg can only be a good thing, IMO.
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2012 STANLEY CUP CHAMPIONS LA KINGS!!! GO JETS GO!
IMO, this is great news. I doubt seriously it has anything to do with the lockout, Burmi seems to mention that in the convo I see there (not that he'd be able to say anything even if it did), but to voluntarily head back to Winnipeg during a couple of days off is a positive sign, visiting friends or whatnot. Russians (and Fins and Swedes) always did seem to enjoy Jets 1.0, could it be that our cold drab working class city appeals to Russians, feels at least somewhat like home Probably reading too much into it, but damn if there isn't anything else to talk about right now...
Burmistrov may never be the star we hoped (or he may be it's still too early) but he will be an effective NHL player for quite a long time, and him putting down roots in Winnipeg can only be a good thing, IMO.
100% agree with this.......I am a sucker for the guys that have the work ethic in practice and in games. I don't know what his ceiling is but worse case scenario he will be a good 3rd line centre IMHO and every team needs one of those.
IMO, this is great news. I doubt seriously it has anything to do with the lockout, Burmi seems to mention that in the convo I see there (not that he'd be able to say anything even if it did), but to voluntarily head back to Winnipeg during a couple of days off is a positive sign, visiting friends or whatnot. Russians (and Fins and Swedes) always did seem to enjoy Jets 1.0, could it be that our cold drab working class city appeals to Russians, feels at least somewhat like home Probably reading too much into it, but damn if there isn't anything else to talk about right now...
Burmistrov may never be the star we hoped (or he may be it's still too early) but he will be an effective NHL player for quite a long time, and him putting down roots in Winnipeg can only be a good thing, IMO.
IMO, this is great news. I doubt seriously it has anything to do with the lockout, Burmi seems to mention that in the convo I see there (not that he'd be able to say anything even if it did), but to voluntarily head back to Winnipeg during a couple of days off is a positive sign, visiting friends or whatnot. Russians (and Fins and Swedes) always did seem to enjoy Jets 1.0, could it be that our cold drab working class city appeals to Russians, feels at least somewhat like home Probably reading too much into it, but damn if there isn't anything else to talk about right now...
Burmistrov may never be the star we hoped (or he may be it's still too early) but he will be an effective NHL player for quite a long time, and him putting down roots in Winnipeg can only be a good thing, IMO.
Per @WiebeSunSports
Quote:
#NHLJets F Alex Burmistrov, who has been playing with St. John's #IceCaps of the #AHL is in Winnipeg to have upper-body injury checked out
. For me my eye was more than enough to convict fat Buff of abandonment as I watched him coast back into a play late that he had overcommitted in the O zone on for the umpteenth time hanging Toby out to dry. It drove me crazy and I was convinced he was a liability. I wish Buff was more fit but his numbers are much better than I thought they would be and I don't think we can afford to give up what he brings to our offense.........yet 
Friendly ManiBROba
