Doubt Victorino would come here to play LF... he's still a good defensive CF and that's where his value lies in. But if he will come at reasonable money and term, sure, I think he is a nice option for LF.
I think Melky Cabrera would be a nice option too who could come at a cheap 1 year deal to prove himself (doubt teams would be willing to give him a big multi-year deal since they don't know what they will get).
I wouldn't mind Cabrera on a one year deal, but he's not my first choice. It's difficult to gauge just how productive he can be, and the Jays need a sure thing, or close to it in LF.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nasty Nazem
Because Adam Lind sucks.
Last 3 years OPS against RHP: .795, .771, .829. .829 OPS is fine but he is even slipping from that as he had in 2010. RHP have figured him out which is just staying away from his power and with how awful his approach has become, he tries to pull pitches and sacrifice his approach to hit homeruns (he's hit a whopping 21 doubles against RHP the past two season -- hit 31 in 2010).
2012: .342 wOBA
2011: 328 wOBA
2010: .356 wOBA
Adam Lind will be fine in a platoon role, and I suspect that reduced playing time, and permanent DH duty will relieve some stress on his back, which only further increases the likelihood that he matches his career rates.
FTR, the league average OPS for a DH is .773
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nasty Nazem
He's had one really elite year against RHP, one above average and pretty mediocre other than that (every year except 09 and 10, OPS is below .800 against RHP). At this point, his 2009 season was a fluke which if you remove it, he is an awful hitter against everything.
You cannot just remove seasons to suit your argument, I could just as easily remove 2011 and claim that Adam Lind has not had a single season with an OPS below .795 in the last 4 seasons. Though it should be noted that wOBA is a better measure than OPS, and Adam Lind's wOBA is well above average for DH's over the last 4 seasons (against RHP).
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nasty Nazem
Besides, at 1st base, you shouldn't have a bat that needs to be platooned. That's a position where you need to hit and if you can't do that, then you shouldn't be in the majors. The bench is literally being wasted if you are adding a 1st base/DH type on the bench.
Lind shouldn't be on the roster next season.
Edwin Encarnacion should, and will be the starting 1st baseman for the Blue Jays in 2013. As for your second point, most teams have a bench spot for a PH/1B, and Adam Lind and Jonny Gomes have the added versatility of playing LF. Granted neither do it well, but they both possess that ability if necessary. The remaining three bench spots will go to: Rajai Davis (4th OF), Jeff Mathis (backup catcher), and Mike McCoy (super utility).
Adam Lind will be fine in a platoon role, and I suspect that reduced playing time, and permanent DH duty will relieve some stress on his back, which only further increases the likelihood that he matches his career rates.
FTR, the league average OPS for a DH is .773
You cannot just remove seasons to suit your argument, I could just as easily remove 2011 and claim that Adam Lind has not had a single season with an OPS below .795 in the last 4 seasons. Though it should be noted that wOBA is a better measure than OPS, and Adam Lind's wOBA is well above average for DH's over the last 4 seasons (against RHP).
Couple of thoughts: if you're going to cite Lind's need against righties in isolation, don't you need to compare his performance against other left-hitting DHs against RHP? I'm guessing his numbers are rather unremarkable. Which brings me to my second point - why do you think we need a significant upgrade in LF, but not an upgrade at DH?
FA David Ortiz is a career 1.016/.818 OPS against righties and lefties, along with a .422/.350 wOBA. That's far and away better than Lind's numbers. Heck, Ortiz appears to be just as good against lefties as Lind is against righties. Granted, his performance tails off as he ages, right? Oh, wait: his 2012 numbers are actually *better*: 1.050/.985 OPS vs L/R, and .431/.411 wOBA.
Seems to me those are the numbers you want from a DH. Lind by comparison is a scrub. Or am I missing something?
Guys its simple..........Top end starting pitcher, 4th-5th starter which is vet, LF and second baseman.
Scutaro at 2nd, Swisher in LF, Gavin Floyd (via FA), and Garza (via trade).
Scutaro 2b
Lawrie 3b
Bautista RF
EE 1b
Swisher LF
D'Araund C
Arencebia DH
Rasmus CF
Escobar SS (unless traded, then this is Hech)
Garza
Morrow
Romero
Floyd
Alvarez/Happ
It might be simple to type it into a message board, however the real world isn't that easy.
Side note:
Quote:
While the Tigers and manager Jim Leyland will address his contract situation at the end of the year, the skipper confirmed today that he wants to continue managing, writes Jason Beck of MLB.com.
If possible, what would you guys think about Leyland managing the Jays ?
Guys its simple..........Top end starting pitcher, 4th-5th starter which is vet, LF and second baseman.
Scutaro at 2nd, Swisher in LF, Gavin Floyd (via FA), and Garza (via trade).
Scutaro 2b
Lawrie 3b
Bautista RF
EE 1b
Swisher LF
D'Araund C
Arencebia DH
Rasmus CF
Escobar SS (unless traded, then this is Hech)
Garza
Morrow
Romero
Floyd
Alvarez/Happ
As a hitter, Arencibia is well below average for the DH position. If he's on the roster, it's as a catcher, where he's average but with plus power. And that's fine - give d'Arnaud a full, healthy year in Buffalo and a September call-up.
You can swap out a number of names for Garza or Floyd, but something like that will be the idea.
Scutaro's a decent fall-back position at 2B, although I think the Jays might have something more aggressive in mind there. It depends on how much salary they take on.
I can see FAs in the 3/4 SP, DH and LF, and a 1/2 SP and 2B via trade. Those trades will likely mean a couple of bodies off the 25-man roster are moved along with prospects, with any of Rasmus, Escobar, Arencibia or Lind possible trade bait. Hopefully not many though: we need to keep our MLB depth so that we can do a better job weathering the injury storms.
Couple of thoughts: if you're going to cite Lind's need against righties in isolation, don't you need to compare his performance against other left-hitting DHs against RHP? I'm guessing his numbers are rather unremarkable. Which brings me to my second point - why do you think we need a significant upgrade in LF, but not an upgrade at DH?
FA David Ortiz is a career 1.016/.818 OPS against righties and lefties, along with a .422/.350 wOBA. That's far and away better than Lind's numbers. Heck, Ortiz appears to be just as good against lefties as Lind is against righties. Granted, his performance tails off as he ages, right? Oh, wait: his 2012 numbers are actually *better*: 1.050/.985 OPS vs L/R, and .431/.411 wOBA.
Seems to me those are the numbers you want from a DH. Lind by comparison is a scrub. Or am I missing something?
Well Ortiz is clearly one of the best DH's in the league, I think he's saying Lind is more of an average DH when in a platoon position.
I know people here like to say your DH should be one of your best hitters, but out of the AL playoff teamsl, how many teams have their DH as a top 3 hitter on their team? Not the Yankees or Tigers, pretty sure not the Rangers or Orioles, perhaps not even Oakland though at this moment I can't think of their DH.
If possible, what would you guys think about Leyland managing the Jays ?
Someone asked this earlier... I worry it might be a little too far the other way, from an inexperienced manager to one that's pushing 70. That said, who saw Showalter having such an impact with Baltimore based on his last couple of stops?
Well Ortiz is clearly one of the best DH's in the league, I think he's saying Lind is more of an average DH when in a platoon position.
I know people here like to say your DH should be one of your best hitters, but out of the AL playoff teamsl, how many teams have their DH as a top 3 hitter on their team? Not the Yankees or Tigers, pretty sure not the Rangers or Orioles, perhaps not even Oakland though at this moment I can't think of their DH.
Oakland was actually the example he provide of effective platooning (Seth Smith/Jonny Gomes), and I do take his point. I think few teams have elite hitters at DH because they spend the big $$ on position players so DH becomes a leftovers spot in the budget. Maybe there's something to that, but the Jays have so many controllable, affordable position players, they should be able to spring for an elite bat without worrying about the guy's defence.
I'd also say there are a lot of teams with guys who should be DH-ing playing 1B or LF instead. Encarnacion is proving to be a pretty good 1B, so that leaves the DH spot open.
Last edited by Ohio Jones: 10-10-2012 at 11:28 AM.
Reason: added Smith and Jones' names as Oakland's DH's
As a hitter, Arencibia is well below average for the DH position. If he's on the roster, it's as a catcher, where he's average but with plus power. And that's fine - give d'Arnaud a full, healthy year in Buffalo and a September call-up.You can swap out a number of names for Garza or Floyd, but something like that will be the idea.
Scutaro's a decent fall-back position at 2B, although I think the Jays might have something more aggressive in mind there. It depends on how much salary they take on.
I can see FAs in the 3/4 SP, DH and LF, and a 1/2 SP and 2B via trade. Those trades will likely mean a couple of bodies off the 25-man roster are moved along with prospects, with any of Rasmus, Escobar, Arencibia or Lind possible trade bait. Hopefully not many though: we need to keep our MLB depth so that we can do a better job weathering the injury storms.
I dont see why he needs a full year in AAA.
He's going to be 24 years old by the start of spring training and was arguably the best player in AAA before getting injured. If he comes to camp fully healthy and hits, I would maybe send him down for one month to get into a nice rhythum and then call him up. Crap he's one of the 15 best prospects in the game and he could prolly help this team out right away. It's about time he gets on the major league team so we can figure out who to keep between the two.
Yeah I'd bring d'Arnaud in as soon as we can. Let him catch fire in AAA for maybe a month or two, call him up and see how he fairs in the bigs. If he turns out like we expect him to then Arencibia could possibly be made available in July or in the off season.
Adam Lind will be fine in a platoon role, and I suspect that reduced playing time, and permanent DH duty will relieve some stress on his back, which only further increases the likelihood that he matches his career rates.
FTR, the league average OPS for a DH is .773
That's not all that good for what is supposed to be an all-bat guy. Yes, there are some weak DH's around the league and I can understand the sentiment that we don't need to have an elite bat at that position but other than Bautista and Edwin, our hitters are pretty weak. Our pitching is also extremely weak so we need a good offense. Yes, AA may upgrade it this off-season but it would take something really significant to improve it to above average.
Maybe if Lind actually mashed against RHP, you could consider it but being average to slightly above average for a 1st/DH, I don't think so.
Quote:
You cannot just remove seasons to suit your argument, I could just as easily remove 2011 and claim that Adam Lind has not had a single season with an OPS below .795 in the last 4 seasons. Though it should be noted that wOBA is a better measure than OPS, and Adam Lind's wOBA is well above average for DH's over the last 4 seasons (against RHP).
I'm not saying you remove it because it still happened but he has gotten really far away from his 2009 season where he OPS'd nearly 1.000 against RHP and now he is struggling to even hit .800. He probably wouldn't be in the league right now if it wasn't for that 2009 season. Like I said, maybe if Lind mashed RHP to the point you thought you could get really great production from platooning, I would consider it but Lind is just above average against RHP while offering nothing else.
Don't think I can stand another ****ing year of Lind batting clean-up/middle of the order.
Quote:
Edwin Encarnacion should, and will be the starting 1st baseman for the Blue Jays in 2013. As for your second point, most teams have a bench spot for a PH/1B, and Adam Lind and Jonny Gomes have the added versatility of playing LF. Granted neither do it well, but they both possess that ability if necessary. The remaining three bench spots will go to: Rajai Davis (4th OF), Jeff Mathis (backup catcher), and Mike McCoy (super utility).
Both are horrible at it. Lind should never be allowed to play LF.
Honestly, it's just a waste of a spot to have a guy on the bench that can't help you defensively. NL teams can have a bat like that because they have no DH and have 5 bats on the bench but you can't have two guys that can't help defensively platoon (you essentially make it a short bench). It's a position where you can find guys that can be better than Lind at DH/1st without the platoon.
I just don't like the platooning of a 1st base/DH. If you can't hit enough to be everyday at those position, you don't have much value. I do think platooning at LF with Davis could make some sense.
I dont see why he needs a full year in AAA.
He's going to be 24 years old by the start of spring training and was arguably the best player in AAA before getting injured. If he comes to camp fully healthy and hits, I would maybe send him down for one month to get into a nice rhythum and then call him up. Crap he's one of the 15 best prospects in the game and he could prolly help this team out right away. It's about time he gets on the major league team so we can figure out who to keep between the two.
Agreed. I don't think he needs to be in the minors for more than a month or two but if JPA is traded, he should get the everyday role at catcher.
Agreed. I don't think he needs to be in the minors for more than a month or two but if JPA is traded, he should get the everyday role at catcher.
I see everyone's point. I guess I'm just being conservative, on two, actually three fronts. First, as mentioned I'd like to keep as much MLB depth as possible so we don't run into rushing players like we had to this season. Second, d'Arnaud has 67, 114 and 71 games played the past three seasons. I'd like him to get close to a full season in wherever he goes. Third, there's so much to learn as a catcher upon entering the bigs, with a new staff to build rapport with, an entire league of hitters to learn, and the stress of game calling... That's a lot of pressure to put on a guy in a season when we expect to challenge for a playoff spot. Arencibia's really only starting to get where he should be in terms of game calling.
All of this is why I'd like d'Arnaud to get eased into the majors slowly over the next two seasons... But I recognize Arencibia may well be moved to address other moves, which would make all of this moot.
I see everyone's point. I guess I'm just being conservative, on two, actually three fronts. First, as mentioned I'd like to keep as much MLB depth as possible so we don't run into rushing players like we had to this season. Second, d'Arnaud has 67, 114 and 71 games played the past three seasons. I'd like him to get close to a full season in wherever he goes. Third, there's so much to learn as a catcher upon entering the bigs, with a new staff to build rapport with, an entire league of hitters to learn, and the stress of game calling... That's a lot of pressure to put on a guy in a season when we expect to challenge for a playoff spot. Arencibia's really only starting to get where he should be in terms of game calling.
All of this is why I'd like d'Arnaud to get eased into the majors slowly over the next two seasons... But I recognize Arencibia may well be moved to address other moves, which would make all of this moot.
He'd still have to learn all the stuff the following year so might as well get him up as soon as possible considering his age and pedigree. I dont see this as rushing a prospect one bit seeing hes already pretty old for a top prospect and has spent considerable time in the minors. The guy was already arguably the best player at the AAA level so really dont see any point in keeping him down there a full season if hes healthy.
I dont see why he needs a full year in AAA.
He's going to be 24 years old by the start of spring training and was arguably the best player in AAA before getting injured. If he comes to camp fully healthy and hits, I would maybe send him down for one month to get into a nice rhythum and then call him up. Crap he's one of the 15 best prospects in the game and he could prolly help this team out right away. It's about time he gets on the major league team so we can figure out who to keep between the two.
I like the way that the Giants handled Buster Posey in 2010. Gave him 200 PA in Triple-A, and then called him up at the end of May. He played a month, predominantly at first base, for the month of June. They then traded Bengie Molina, and he moved behind the plate full time. The situation with d'Arnaud could be very similar. Though Posey had more experience at other positions (SS, 1B, C at Florida State), d'Arnaud could instead see time at DH with some time behind the plate. I'm a big believer in him, and disregard the Zaun rants that state that he's a J.P. Arencibia clone. I put more stock into the opinions of Keith Law, John Sickels, Baseball America and so on and so forth.
Couple of thoughts: if you're going to cite Lind's need against righties in isolation, don't you need to compare his performance against other left-hitting DHs against RHP? I'm guessing his numbers are rather unremarkable.
Why? That is irrelevant, all that matters is the total production that can be expected from a Gomes/Lind platoon, and that is at least league average, and likely a little bit better.
As for your second point, I highly doubt the league wOBA for left handed DH's against RHP is .357, let alone better. Further consider that the league average wOBA is not .357 at any position (in the AL or NL).
Here are the AL numbers for comparison's sake:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ohio Jones
Which brings me to my second point - why do you think we need a significant upgrade in LF, but not an upgrade at DH?
You are making assumptions, at no point did I say that the Jays do not need a significant upgrade at DH, however there is only so much money to go around, and LF is far more important than DH.
The average LF hits for the same wOBA as the average DH, but unlike DH, LF has a defensive component, and traditionally requires good speed/range which plays a factor on the bases as well.
If I can only allocate money to one position, it's left field. I also think you underestimate just how much of an upgrade Gomes/Lind is over just Lind. It's significant, and inexpensive, which allows the Jays to pursue further upgrades in LF and the rotation.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ohio Jones
FA David Ortiz is a career 1.016/.818 OPS against righties and lefties, along with a .422/.350 wOBA. That's far and away better than Lind's numbers. Heck, Ortiz appears to be just as good against lefties as Lind is against righties. Granted, his performance tails off as he ages, right? Oh, wait: his 2012 numbers are actually *better*: 1.050/.985 OPS vs L/R, and .431/.411 wOBA.
Seems to me those are the numbers you want from a DH. Lind by comparison is a scrub. Or am I missing something?
What is your point? That David Ortiz is elite and Adam Lind is not? I already knew that, and I would hope that everyone else does too.
Here is what you neglected to mention, David Ortiz is 36 (soon to be 37), provides no defensive or base running value whatsoever, and is looking for a contract in excess of 15M. Ortiz would be a fantastic player to add if money was not an object, but it is...
In reality the Jays have a budget between 30 and 35M this off-season, it would be unwise of them to allocate half of that on a DH when they have bigger holes in LF and in the rotation.
Acquiring David Ortiz also puts Lind's 5M salary to waste. Given the payroll parameters of this team, I would prefer to see the Jays allocate the vast majority of payroll on SP and LF, and then a couple of million on Jonny Gomes. It may not be the best move in isolation, but it is the move that will improve the team the most because it improves the DH position, and provides flexibility to improve SP and LF.
Well Ortiz is clearly one of the best DH's in the league, I think he's saying Lind is more of an average DH when in a platoon position.
I know people here like to say your DH should be one of your best hitters, but out of the AL playoff teamsl, how many teams have their DH as a top 3 hitter on their team? Not the Yankees or Tigers, pretty sure not the Rangers or Orioles, perhaps not even Oakland though at this moment I can't think of their DH.
That's not all that good for what is supposed to be an all-bat guy. Yes, there are some weak DH's around the league and I can understand the sentiment that we don't need to have an elite bat at that position but other than Bautista and Edwin, our hitters are pretty weak. Our pitching is also extremely weak so we need a good offense. Yes, AA may upgrade it this off-season but it would take something really significant to improve it to above average.
Maybe if Lind actually mashed against RHP, you could consider it but being average to slightly above average for a 1st/DH, I don't think so.
The Jays problem is not that they don't possess elite bats, it's that they dressed several players who aren't even league average at their position (Davis, Arencibia, Johnson, and Lind).
I agree that the Jays need more big bats if they want to contend, but I would prefer to allocate that money on bats that provide defensive value in addition to offensive value.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nasty Nazem
I'm not saying you remove it because it still happened but he has gotten really far away from his 2009 season where he OPS'd nearly 1.000 against RHP and now he is struggling to even hit .800. He probably wouldn't be in the league right now if it wasn't for that 2009 season. Like I said, maybe if Lind mashed RHP to the point you thought you could get really great production from platooning, I would consider it but Lind is just above average against RHP while offering nothing else.
Don't think I can stand another ****ing year of Lind batting clean-up/middle of the order.
Lind has been well above average in each of the last 4 years, save for 2011, and combined with Gomes he should make a formidable platoon. Not elite, but good.
Lind should not be batting clean-up, but that does not mean he can't be utilized effectively on the team.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nasty Nazem
Both are horrible at it. Lind should never be allowed to play LF.
Honestly, it's just a waste of a spot to have a guy on the bench that can't help you defensively. NL teams can have a bat like that because they have no DH and have 5 bats on the bench but you can't have two guys that can't help defensively platoon (you essentially make it a short bench). It's a position where you can find guys that can be better than Lind at DH/1st without the platoon.
I just don't like the platooning of a 1st base/DH. If you can't hit enough to be everyday at those position, you don't have much value.
Oakland played Gomes in LF consistently against LHP, and they did just fine, I am not proposing that the Jays do the same, but they can afford to play him there the odd game. His offense more than makes up for it, likewise with Lind.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nasty Nazem
I do think platooning at LF with Davis could make some sense.
I don't want Davis in the field that many times a year.
The Jays problem is not that they don't possess elite bats, it's that they dressed several players who aren't even league average at their position (Davis, Arencibia, Johnson, and Lind).
I agree that the Jays need more big bats if they want to contend, but I would prefer to allocate that money on bats that provide defensive value in addition to offensive value.
Me too but those aren't easy to find.
Quote:
Lind has been well above average in each of the last 4 years, save for 2011, and combined with Gomes he should make a formidable platoon. Not elite, but good.
Lind should not be batting clean-up, but that does not mean he can't be utilized effectively on the team.
I don't want two DH on the team.
Doubt Gomes would come here just to platoon too. Playing against just left handed pitching isn't much playing time. He had a good year and somebody will probably give him everyday playing time.
Quote:
Oakland played Gomes in LF consistently against LHP, and they did just fine, I am not proposing that the Jays do the same, but they can afford to play him there the odd game. His offense more than makes up for it, likewise with Lind.
I don't want Davis in the field that many times a year.
Davis starting strictly against LHP isn't on the field that many times and offensively, can help the Jays as much as Lind does (doesn't have as much power but creates havoc on the basepaths) and there is some versatility with him.
