That still does not discredit the fact Gomez was a better player at the time. Had he not sunk into oblivion and McDonagh not exploded, the trade would not be anywhere near as horrendous as the perception is now, albatross is not. In actuality, your comparison is a tad unfair. We already know Komisarek is horrible right now, whereas Gomez, while never worth his contract, had respectable numbers.
The premise of auto-losing a trade by dealing the best player still holds true. Prospects muddy the waters because they can't be properly evaluated against the field. It's because they haven't played yet. For example, before Seguin stepped onto NHL ice, would you say that Chris Kelly was clearly the better player? No, you can't, because you can't project Seguin's upside objectively. However, a straight NHL player to NHL player comparison _should_ have people aware of who is better.
Gomez's contract was already unjustified, thereby affecting his value, even before he took his precipitous drop. So we have the contract and the fact that McDonough was an unknown quantity working against your evaluation.
Quote:
And the win hinged on a gamble Toronto freefall to the basement. No one predicted either first would be as considerably high when that trade was made. Boston traded Kessel knowing in all likelihood they would end up with a 10-15 pick, perhaps slightly below. Not the second overall.
What off Heatley for Michalek? That worked out pretty well for Ottawa.
This isn't to say these were necessarily good trades, or other circumstances surrounded their reason. But instead to say the best player being traded does not guarantee a loss for the team moving him.
Yes, I'm afraid it does. Even if you could cite 5% of the cases to support your point, the general rule still stands. The exceptions do not overrule it. In fact, I am _expecting_ to lose the Luongo deal. That's my realization.
Oh, and I'm still taking Heatley (still lead his team in scoring).
Of course Henrik will be the passer, but the down-low play between the twins and Kesler won't work without the threat of an effective point shot to keep defenders honest. Erhoff or a player like him is still the crucial missing piece. Hopefully Garrison can provide the shot, if not the passing/skating of Erhoff.
This, plus Kesler was used a lot for zone entry with his speed caring the puck in.
Proposed something similar in the Lou thread on the main board and Toronto fans were all for it.
Tweaked it a bit before asking SJ fans and so far value wise they say its fair but they don't like Lou's contract. Now I made one last tweak.
To SJ:
Roberto Luongo
Clarke MacArthur
To TOR:
Antti Niemi
Mason Raymond
To VAN:
Ryan Clowe
Leafs 2nd in 13
SJ 2nd in 13
thoughts?
We get a top pwf and a couple picks while saving almost 4M in cap space. With how the recent proposals see the cap stay at 72M this year while dropping to something like 62M next year, shedding 4M now helps for next year so we do not have to pull a SJ and deal Edler for a fringe prospect and a 2nd, or sell off our depth like CHI.
This puts us at around 64M for this season, with Malhotra and Alberts coming off the books at the end of the year (3.6M) and Edler, Clowe, Higgins, Lapierre to re-sign, Tanev and Lack RFAs. Cap goes down Edler won't get more than 5.5M, I see us keeping one of Clowe or Higgins due to the cap as both would come back at around the same salary (so promoting Jensen/Kassian) everyone else gets small raises which would keep us around that 63-64M which would be over the supposed drop to 62M with no rollbacks
San Jose makes out like bandits, I think. Although if you want to go all out...
Schneider, Kesler, and Raymond(or Hansen if absolutely neccessary) for Pavelski and Couture.
Updating my goalie trades and the extra pieces assuming we play this year:
Luongo to Toronto for Finn, Kadri and a First. (no need for anything else. Toronto does not have anything that can help us this year on the right wing and I'd rather just extract value from them
Luongo to Florida for Petrovic, Shore and a First. No big changes with this but maybe worth trying to get Shore as well Bjugstad is a no go and we need more depth at center
Schneider + 1st for Yakupov + 2nd. I don't care what anyone says, on a value comparison I think it's more than fair. Just not realistic. I don't really have a Luongo deal to Edmonton that I like as I am not sure what to pair with a first round pick to get equal value back from them.
If Lindback sheds the bed....Luongo for Connolly straight up.
Raymond to any bottom 15 team for a 2nd round pick
Raymond to Nashville for Blum
Raymond to Carolina for Boychuk and Sanguinetti
Raymond + 3rd to Phoenix for Rundblad
Ballard to NYI, Minny, or Colorado for a 2nd Round Pick
Ballard and Raymond and a 2nd to Washington for Forsberg
Updating my goalie trades and the extra pieces assuming we play this year:
Luongo to Toronto for Finn, Kadri and a First. (no need for anything else. Toronto does not have anything that can help us this year on the right wing and I'd rather just extract value from them
Luongo to Florida for Petrovic, Shore and a First. No big changes with this but maybe worth trying to get Shore as well Bjugstad is a no go and we need more depth at center
I'll just comment on these two. If these two are the max packages from each team, then I'll go with the FLA package. Petrovic is looking like a very good prospect. He tips the scale for me. However, if TO included Percy for a swap of Tochkin/other expendable contract, I'd go in that direction.
Basically, the 4th piece from TO must be there because FLA would win a 3 piece comparison.
I'll just comment on these two. If these two are the max packages from each team, then I'll go with the FLA package. Petrovic is looking like a very good prospect. He tips the scale for me. However, if TO included Percy for a swap of Tochkin/other expendable contract, I'd go in that direction.
Basically, the 4th piece from TO must be there because FLA would win a 3 piece comparison.
Finn's been looking really nice too.
Petrovic > Finn - I'd target Petro too if the big 4 aren't available
Shore < Kadri- Shore's an AV type player but Kadri *could* be NHL ready this season
FLA 1st = TO 1st - I actually think TO with Luongo beats out FLA for the 8th playoff spot
Maybe FLA would entertain a Raymond for Matthias swap in the trade as well. They need scoring and we need a #3C or a winger for our bottom 6.
Updating my goalie trades and the extra pieces assuming we play this year:
Luongo to Toronto for Finn, Kadri and a First. (no need for anything else. Toronto does not have anything that can help us this year on the right wing and I'd rather just extract value from them
Luongo to Florida for Petrovic, Shore and a First. No big changes with this but maybe worth trying to get Shore as well Bjugstad is a no go and we need more depth at center
Schneider + 1st for Yakupov + 2nd. I don't care what anyone says, on a value comparison I think it's more than fair. Just not realistic. I don't really have a Luongo deal to Edmonton that I like as I am not sure what to pair with a first round pick to get equal value back from them.
If Lindback sheds the bed....Luongo for Connolly straight up.
Raymond to any bottom 15 team for a 2nd round pick
Raymond to Nashville for Blum
Raymond to Carolina for Boychuk and Sanguinetti
Raymond + 3rd to Phoenix for Rundblad
Ballard to NYI, Minny, or Colorado for a 2nd Round Pick
Ballard and Raymond and a 2nd to Washington for Forsberg
if we could get Blum that cheaply, that would be awesome
not sure we'd want to just send Raymond or Ballard packing without upgrade plans for those positions..?
i guess either of those Luongo deals would be ok, though not thrilling. Hopefully those pieces could be packaged to get a killer top 6er at the deadline.
If Lindback falters and Stevie Y comes back for Luo, I would hope we take him for more than just Connolly.
That Yak deal is crazy ...Oil would likely say no, as i think we win on value (isnt Yakupov supposed to be significantly above your average 1st OA in value?) Even then I would be scared about pulling the trigger, Schneider would help the Oil so much ....
Luongo would too ... i had proposed Luongo/Raymond for Hemsky/Gagner, 2nd
Why is Chicago no longer talked about? I think we come out of this lockout with realignment and Chicago is no longer in our "conference". Good trading partners in my opinion. Chicago has a bunch of Centre prospects and a Shaw or Kruger who could potentially step in right away.
Why is Chicago no longer talked about? I think we come out of this lockout with realignment and Chicago is no longer in our "conference". Good trading partners in my opinion. Chicago has a bunch of Centre prospects and a Shaw or Kruger who could potentially step in right away.
If they are willing to offer those pieces and they have the best bid, give Luongo to them. I'd love to have Bolland+ on the team, but as stated before it just won't happen.
Petrovic > Finn - I'd target Petro too if the big 4 aren't available Shore < Kadri- Shore's an AV type player but Kadri *could* be NHL ready this season
FLA 1st = TO 1st - I actually think TO with Luongo beats out FLA for the 8th playoff spot
Maybe FLA would entertain a Raymond for Matthias swap in the trade as well. They need scoring and we need a #3C or a winger for our bottom 6.
Shore is the much safer asset. Kadri is so hit or miss that he's a wildcard to me. One worth taking with other strong pieces, but alone, not near reliable enough.
Shore is more interesting to me than Petrovic in that deal. Lower upside than Kadri, but he's pretty likely to make the NHL and he seems to keep getting better (not unlike Kesler back in the day).
This trade is for the purpose of re organizing our offense. As many know, I'm not a fan of a shooting center. Brassard is a good prospect who has played 2nd line on a weak team. Add on a top 15 pick(I think CBJ does really well in the upcoming season) and more depth, I feel the value is good.
Kesler, Connauton, Alberts for Johansson, Carlson
Again re-organizing the offense. Johansson brings a lot of speed and tenacity. He has a lot of potential to become a great second line player. Carlson is a great defensemen and would make a very steady partner for Edler. Washington get's Kesler who will run the offense on the second line. They are very weak on the wings, but that won't be a problem since Kesler makes most of the offense himself anyways.
After 1st trade:
Sedin Sedin Burrows
Booth Brassard Kassian
Raymond Schroeder Hansen
X X X
After 2nd trade:
Sedin Sedin Burrows
Booth Schroeder Kassian
Raymond Johansson Hansen
X X X
if we could get Blum that cheaply, that would be awesome
not sure we'd want to just send Raymond or Ballard packing without upgrade plans for those positions..?
i guess either of those Luongo deals would be ok, though not thrilling. Hopefully those pieces could be packaged to get a killer top 6er at the deadline.
If Lindback falters and Stevie Y comes back for Luo, I would hope we take him for more than just Connolly.
That Yak deal is crazy ...Oil would likely say no, as i think we win on value (isnt Yakupov supposed to be significantly above your average 1st OA in value?) Even then I would be scared about pulling the trigger, Schneider would help the Oil so much ....
Luongo would too ... i had proposed Luongo/Raymond for Hemsky/Gagner, 2nd
I have no idea what Blum's value is right now. He was very poor last year. I think he's a very smart defender even if he's overmatched physically at this level. Reminds me of Doug Halward (dating myself).
The idea of trading Raymond and Ballard is that we grab a third pairing right side D-man (Blum for example) and I have to think we can find an asset that can play the right side. We are sorted on left wing with Sedin, Booth, and Higgins. On the right we have Burrows, Hansen and Kassian. Obviously it would be great to shift the latter two down a spot in the depth chart for this year. I think Connolly or a Kadri could do that.....or we can move a first along for a right winger.
I would much rather get a first from Toronto to simply generate a liquid asset that every team values.
I'll just comment on these two. If these two are the max packages from each team, then I'll go with the FLA package. Petrovic is looking like a very good prospect. He tips the scale for me. However, if TO included Percy for a swap of Tochkin/other expendable contract, I'd go in that direction.
Basically, the 4th piece from TO must be there because FLA would win a 3 piece comparison.
For me Kadri has more potential to play on the top lines and has shown he can play in all three forward spots. Shore's ceiling is likely the second line on a poor team, and a third line on a good one.
