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The Armchair GM Thread - Part XXX - Naughty Edition

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Old
01-03-2013, 03:29 PM
  #801
y2kcanucks
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Co Ho View Post
For the first bit, he's saying the right things to help facilitate a trade and/or remain on good terms with the franchise if he does stick around for a bit longer than expected.
For the second part, with a lower cap and impending UFAs (Edler, Higgins, Lapierre, etc.), we can't afford the same roster that you are citing as being successful.



Disagree. His value is as high as it gets, unless he somehow busts out a career year (which I don't see happening at 33 and splitting time with Schneider, although anything could happen).
The risks in keeping Luongo for an extended period of time are:
-He keeps getting older, you'd think he'd be less valuable at, say 35, than 33.
-One of Schneider or Luongo gets fed up with splitting time and demands a trade, forcing MG's hand even more.
-Our cap situation restricts us from re-signing some of our core players (mentioned above).

The ONLY positive to holding on to both (aside from providing consistent goaltending and alternating them) is that the market opens up and new teams become interested - but the reverse could happen as well.
You're ignoring the fact that if Luongo's trade value is so low, keeping him and benefitting from his solid play in net isn't going to hurt his trade value any more. Like I said, what's the worse that happens? Toronto refuses to trade a player like Bozak or Franson? Big deal, they're crap anyways.

I don't really see us keeping Higgins anyways as I think he'll want more of a raise than he's really worth to us, and we could use his roster spot on an ELC. Edler's raise, depending on how much the cap falls, will likely only be $1.5M next season (or should only be).

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01-03-2013, 03:36 PM
  #802
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Quote:
Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
A top 5 goalie is worth more than table scraps. It's not an unrealistic valuation.
Okay, explain how we could keep Luongo under a $60-62M cap? It wouldn't be reasonably feasible and every team is aware. Therefore, they will offer less knowing our alternative is bleak.

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01-03-2013, 03:40 PM
  #803
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To emphasis my point...

FORWARDS
Daniel Sedin ($6.100m) / Henrik Sedin ($6.100m) / Alexandre Burrows ($4.500m)
David Booth ($4.250m) / Ryan Kesler ($5.000m) / Zack Kassian ($0.870m)
Nicklas Jensen ($0.894m) / Maxim Lapierre ($1.000m) / Jannik Hansen ($1.350m)
Aaron Volpatti ($0.600m) / Andrew Ebbett ($0.600m) / Dale Weise ($0.615m)
DEFENSEMEN
Alexander Edler ($5.000m) / Jason Garrison ($4.600m)
Dan Hamhuis ($4.500m) / Kevin Bieksa ($4.600m)
Kevin Connauton ($0.900m) / Chris Tanev ($0.900m)
GOALTENDERS
Roberto Luongo ($5.333m)
Cory Schneider ($4.000m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $70,200,000; CAP PAYROLL: $61,712,500; BONUSES: $185,000
CAP SPACE (20-man roster): $8,672,500
---------

That right there is awful team, and we're still not under $60 million. If the cap drops by such an extreme. We cannot go into 2013 with both Luongo and Schneider and everyone knows it.

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01-03-2013, 03:41 PM
  #804
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tact View Post
If there is a season, this will be our lineup this year:

...
I tend to agree with you. Although I could potentially see a trade with FLA now that there's less risk involved and they've got to be thinking having a backup plan for Theo's uneven year to year history.

TO probably won't give up as much now that Burke has a built in excuse of a shortened season should things go south. Then he can make a play for Backstrom in the offseason if it comes to it.

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01-03-2013, 03:44 PM
  #805
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourne Endeavor View Post
To emphasis my point...

FORWARDS
Daniel Sedin ($6.100m) / Henrik Sedin ($6.100m) / Alexandre Burrows ($4.500m)
David Booth ($4.250m) / Ryan Kesler ($5.000m) / Zack Kassian ($0.870m)
Nicklas Jensen ($0.894m) / Maxim Lapierre ($1.000m) / Jannik Hansen ($1.350m)
Aaron Volpatti ($0.600m) / Andrew Ebbett ($0.600m) / Dale Weise ($0.615m)
DEFENSEMEN
Alexander Edler ($5.000m) / Jason Garrison ($4.600m)
Dan Hamhuis ($4.500m) / Kevin Bieksa ($4.600m)
Kevin Connauton ($0.900m) / Chris Tanev ($0.900m)
GOALTENDERS
Roberto Luongo ($5.333m)
Cory Schneider ($4.000m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $70,200,000; CAP PAYROLL: $61,712,500; BONUSES: $185,000
CAP SPACE (20-man roster): $8,672,500
---------

That right there is awful team, and we're still not under $60 million. If the cap drops by such an extreme. We cannot go into 2013 with both Luongo and Schneider and everyone knows it.
I don't see the cap going down to $60M. I think $62-64M is where it'll end up at. And my lineup would look a lot like yours does, except Lapierre back on the 4th line with Schroeder centering the 3rd line. I'd also likely have Corrado on the roster as well, and Edler's salary would have to be scaled back to $4.6M.

Not a great team, but I don't see the team we have right now winning either. Do you want to become the Calgary Flames? Or would you rather still contend because of our elite goaltending, with the potential to get something useful for our goaltender as opposed to dumping him and then flaming out every year?

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01-03-2013, 03:46 PM
  #806
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cocoa Crisp View Post
I tend to agree with you. Although I could potentially see a trade with FLA now that there's less risk involved and they've got to be thinking having a backup plan for Theo's uneven year to year history.

TO probably won't give up as much now that Burke has a built in excuse of a shortened season should things go south. Then he can make a play for Backstrom in the offseason if it comes to it.
I'm starting to more and more think our time has come and gone. The past two seasons were our best chances. We went high stakes when we loaded up and acquired Ballard to make a run in 2011, and we had an opportunity in 2012 but blew it by not addressing our scoring problems (and actually set ourselves back when we traded a young 20 g center for a 4th liner). Now moving forward if we end up giving Luongo away for crap, might as well just go full on rebuild and avoid becoming the new Calgary Flames.

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01-03-2013, 03:47 PM
  #807
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The added bonus in the Luongo deal will be the show Y2K puts on after he is dealt.

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01-03-2013, 03:50 PM
  #808
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Quote:
Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
I don't see the cap going down to $60M. I think $62-64M is where it'll end up at. And my lineup would look a lot like yours does, except Lapierre back on the 4th line with Schroeder centering the 3rd line. I'd also likely have Corrado on the roster as well, and Edler's salary would have to be scaled back to $4.6M.

Not a great team, but I don't see the team we have right now winning either. Do you want to become the Calgary Flames? Or would you rather still contend because of our elite goaltending, with the potential to get something useful for our goaltender as opposed to dumping him and then flaming out every year?
I see the cap hitting $65M and this being a ploy by the owners, thus this may end up moot. Regardless, if it did drop to $62M I would rather get something of value, then run with Luongo/Schneider and get nothing. Speculation is the cap would be hard at $62M, thus we wouldn't be in a better position a year from now.

In a $60-62M cap era. Luongo is never going to garner more than Kadri+Bozak+Franson. If we keep him, it only prolongs the inevitable.

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01-03-2013, 03:53 PM
  #809
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourne Endeavor View Post
I see the cap hitting $65M and this being a ploy by the owners, thus this may end up moot. Regardless, if it did drop to $62M I would rather get something of value, then run with Luongo/Schneider and get nothing. Speculation is the cap would be hard at $62M, thus we wouldn't be in a better position a year from now.

In a $60-62M cap era. Luongo is never going to garner more than Kadri+Bozak+Franson. If we keep him, it only prolongs the inevitable.
You say you would rather get something of value. Okay. Where's that something of value? I don't see a prospect who will be permanently in AV's doghouse, a bad 3C, and a 7th defenseman as being something of value.

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01-03-2013, 04:05 PM
  #810
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Quote:
Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
You're ignoring the fact that if Luongo's trade value is so low, keeping him and benefitting from his solid play in net isn't going to hurt his trade value any more. Like I said, what's the worse that happens? Toronto refuses to trade a player like Bozak or Franson? Big deal, they're crap anyways.

I don't really see us keeping Higgins anyways as I think he'll want more of a raise than he's really worth to us, and we could use his roster spot on an ELC. Edler's raise, depending on how much the cap falls, will likely only be $1.5M next season (or should only be).
What's the worst that happens?
Let's see: either Luongo underperforms and has a down year (and actually ends up as our backup, like other fans have been posting about since the playoffs) or Edler/Higgins/Lapierre sign with another team, or both. That's pretty damn bad IMO. Like I said, if all things remain equal, Luongo will still be just that much older which lowers his value.
I'm not saying trade him ASAP for the best available offer, patience could help us get a better deal, but you have to draw the line somewhere (I'd say within a seasons time) to get the most value for him.

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01-03-2013, 04:14 PM
  #811
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Co Ho View Post
What's the worst that happens?
Let's see: either Luongo underperforms and has a down year (and actually ends up as our backup, like other fans have been posting about since the playoffs) or Edler/Higgins/Lapierre sign with another team, or both. That's pretty damn bad IMO. Like I said, if all things remain equal, Luongo will still be just that much older which lowers his value.
I'm not saying trade him ASAP for the best available offer, patience could help us get a better deal, but you have to draw the line somewhere (I'd say within a seasons time) to get the most value for him.
Honestly I see us getting something like a cap dump petrovic/bjustad matthias/ellerby and a 1st from Florida or bozak Finn 1st or kadri franson 1st/2nd. Toronto doesn't have the center depth to give us both bozak kadri

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01-03-2013, 04:20 PM
  #812
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Originally Posted by Silverback91 View Post
Honestly I see us getting something like a cap dump petrovic/bjustad matthias/ellerby and a 1st from Florida or bozak Finn 1st or kadri franson 1st/2nd. Toronto doesn't have the center depth to give us both bozak kadri
Uh... those are two assets with significantly different values.

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01-03-2013, 04:20 PM
  #813
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Quote:
Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
You say you would rather get something of value. Okay. Where's that something of value? I don't see a prospect who will be permanently in AV's doghouse, a bad 3C, and a 7th defenseman as being something of value.
Okay, and what motivation does Toronto have in offering us Lupul or Gardiner? They know we cannot afford to roll an effective cup contender so long as ten million is locked on goaltending. Maybe Schneider gets one of those because he is the better investment but not Luongo. At least, not in a $60M cap era.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Silverback91 View Post
Honestly I see us getting something like a cap dump petrovic/bjustad matthias/ellerby and a 1st from Florida or bozak Finn 1st or kadri franson 1st/2nd. Toronto doesn't have the center depth to give us both bozak kadri
I'd do Bjugstad straight up. So Florida can add whatever.

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01-03-2013, 04:36 PM
  #814
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Originally Posted by Bourne Endeavor View Post
Okay, and what motivation does Toronto have in offering us Lupul or Gardiner? They know we cannot afford to roll an effective cup contender so long as ten million is locked on goaltending. Maybe Schneider gets one of those because he is the better investment but not Luongo. At least, not in a $60M cap era.



I'd do Bjugstad straight up. So Florida can add whatever.
I virtually guarentee playoff success if Toronto trades for Luongo and there isn't a catastrophic run of injuries. Gardiner and Lupul are fine pieces, comparitively to what else we'd be offered, but neither are potential HHOFers. Luongo is. He wins a cup, he'd have to be in. He tied Broduer's at the time record for wins in a season, and is one off the current mark, and he has been a consistent top level goalie since he broke into the league.

Gardiner has had one full season scoring 30 points, and Lupul hit a ppg pace for the first time in his seven year career, after being bounced from Anaheim to Edmonton to Philidelphia to Anaheim to Toronto, occaisionally hitting the 50 point mark. Gardiner, from a futures standpoint I can understand being hard to surrender, but if Lupul is the center piece in a Luongo deal, I'd think it was Gillis not going for it over Burke.

As for Bjugstad, yeah, thirded.

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01-03-2013, 04:37 PM
  #815
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourne Endeavor View Post
Okay, and what motivation does Toronto have in offering us Lupul or Gardiner? They know we cannot afford to roll an effective cup contender so long as ten million is locked on goaltending. Maybe Schneider gets one of those because he is the better investment but not Luongo. At least, not in a $60M cap era.



I'd do Bjugstad straight up. So Florida can add whatever.
Toronto does it because if they don't, maybe Edmonton does. Maybe Florida does. Maybe Philly or Chicago or Washington does. Maybe Toronto is sick of losing. They went one full CBA term without making the playoffs, I'm sure they're not interested in a second term.

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01-03-2013, 06:32 PM
  #816
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how does Lupul have any value? Isnt he a UFA at season's end anyways?

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01-03-2013, 06:39 PM
  #817
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Quote:
Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
Toronto does it because if they don't, maybe Edmonton does. Maybe Florida does. Maybe Philly or Chicago or Washington does. Maybe Toronto is sick of losing. They went one full CBA term without making the playoffs, I'm sure they're not interested in a second term.
- Chicago has their own cap issues if the reduction is steep. They would want nothing to do with Luongo.
- Washington should and will ride Holtby, who has been excellent in the AHL.
- Edmonton has even worse cap qualms than us once Hall and Eberle's extensions kick in.
- Florida only wants Luongo for cheap. We're not getting Bjugstad from them.
- Philadelphia is not buying out Bryzgalov just to give up valuable assets for Luongo.

The only way Edmonton and Chicago have any interest is if the cap floats around $65-67 million. If it dips to the $60-62 bracket, they're not interested.

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01-03-2013, 06:39 PM
  #818
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Originally Posted by Bourne Endeavor View Post
I'd do Bjugstad straight up. So Florida can add whatever.
Geez...He's not that good a prospect. The only prospects from Florida I'd do one-for-one are Gudbranson and Huberdeau.

Just because prospects are off the table doesn't mean they alone are better than that player(ex Couturier and Weber, or Kreider and Nash).

Huberdeau/Gudbranson
Bjugstad+
Petrovic++

Are all things I'd put in ballpark value.

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01-03-2013, 06:45 PM
  #819
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I virtually guarentee playoff success if Toronto trades for Luongo and there isn't a catastrophic run of injuries. Gardiner and Lupul are fine pieces, comparitively to what else we'd be offered, but neither are potential HHOFers. Luongo is. He wins a cup, he'd have to be in. He tied Broduer's at the time record for wins in a season, and is one off the current mark, and he has been a consistent top level goalie since he broke into the league.

Gardiner has had one full season scoring 30 points, and Lupul hit a ppg pace for the first time in his seven year career, after being bounced from Anaheim to Edmonton to Philidelphia to Anaheim to Toronto, occaisionally hitting the 50 point mark. Gardiner, from a futures standpoint I can understand being hard to surrender, but if Lupul is the center piece in a Luongo deal, I'd think it was Gillis not going for it over Burke.

As for Bjugstad, yeah, thirded.
Oh, I agree. My posts on Luongo's value reduction is based only on a $60M cap bracket. This entire scenario is rendered moot if the league steps away from their instance of a lower cap. Lupul was merely an example, and likely apart of a package considering his status and what remains of a salvaged season.

The reality is if the NHL does get the cap notably reduced, we cannot expect teams to pay dividends for Luongo. His career stats become near irrelevant in face of a large cap hit in a league where teams would suddenly be struggling to shed millions.

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01-03-2013, 06:47 PM
  #820
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
Geez...He's not that good a prospect. The only prospects from Florida I'd do one-for-one are Gudbranson and Huberdeau.

Just because prospects are off the table doesn't mean they alone are better than that player(ex Couturier and Weber, or Kreider and Nash).

Huberdeau/Gudbranson
Bjugstad+
Petrovic++

Are all things I'd put in ballpark value.
Again, only in a $60M cap world do I say the above. And say so only because I do not perceive Florida offering any of what you've posted in said world. They seem content to ride Markstrom as it is. I do not see that changing if the cap drops to $60 million. If it's $65M+ then I agree, Bjugstad+

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01-03-2013, 07:02 PM
  #821
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Originally Posted by Bourne Endeavor View Post
Again, only in a $60M cap world do I say the above. And say so only because I do not perceive Florida offering any of what you've posted in said world. They seem content to ride Markstrom as it is. I do not see that changing if the cap drops to $60 million. If it's $65M+ then I agree, Bjugstad+
Well, are you talking value to us or to Florida? Florida won't give us Bjugstad no matter what. While I would prefer something like Petrovic + Matthias + 2nd to Bjugstad alone as it fits our needs and has Florida deal from a position of strength, not that I'd be happy with either.

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01-03-2013, 07:10 PM
  #822
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
Geez...He's not that good a prospect. The only prospects from Florida I'd do one-for-one are Gudbranson and Huberdeau.

Just because prospects are off the table doesn't mean they alone are better than that player(ex Couturier and Weber, or Kreider and Nash).

Huberdeau/Gudbranson
Bjugstad+
Petrovic++

Are all things I'd put in ballpark value.
I agree with this. I'd be willing to take on a cap dump (assuming the 2 compliance buy outs gets included with the CBA) in order to pick up a Huberdeau, Gudbranson, or Bjugstad +

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01-03-2013, 07:21 PM
  #823
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Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
Well, are you talking value to us or to Florida? Florida won't give us Bjugstad no matter what. While I would prefer something like Petrovic + Matthias + 2nd to Bjugstad alone as it fits our needs and has Florida deal from a position of strength, not that I'd be happy with either.
Florida. I only mentioned Bjugstad because someone else was adding to him whilst in the whole "low cap" paradox. Either way, I agree Petrovic + Matthias + 2nd is better. Debatable if Florida offers it though.

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01-03-2013, 07:37 PM
  #824
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RE: Luongo trades

Does nobody find it the least bit funny that many question Lupul's value, but want a centermen who couldn't hit 50 points with Kessel and Lupul, a middling prospect with his fair share of talent but confidence issues and inconsistent play, and a pick?

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01-03-2013, 07:47 PM
  #825
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RE: Luongo trades

Does nobody find it the least bit funny that many question Lupul's value, but want a centermen who couldn't hit 50 points with Kessel and Lupul, a middling prospect with his fair share of talent but confidence issues and inconsistent play, and a pick?
UFA status doesn't bug me all that much, but hearing that Bozak fills a need better then Lupul is just....asinine. Lupul isn't the top tier scoring winger I'd want in a perfect world, but with the new CBA in place and the cap uncertain, I'd gladly accept him over a sub 1/2 ppg player that couldn't elevate his game to either of his two wingers.

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