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Would we get a higher pick in 2013 if we play the season or not?

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Old
09-19-2012, 05:30 PM
  #1
internetdotcom
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Would we get a higher pick in 2013 if we play the season or not?

Borrowed from this thread on the Oilers board, if the whole season goes kaput with the lockout, we have a 2% chance at the first overall pick in a draft lottery. Now I wouldn't expect us to be anywhere near first overall if we play the season, but to play devil's advocate, what do you think the odds would be that we would be picking first overall, as compared to the 2% with the draft lottery?

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09-19-2012, 05:39 PM
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CanadianHockey
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Pretty much the same. Perhaps more if Spezz/Karlsson were to go down for a significant period of time.

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09-19-2012, 05:43 PM
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benjiv1
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We're not drafting 1st overall. We're gonna draft 4th overall and take Monohan.

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09-19-2012, 05:45 PM
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but Toronto will trade their 1st for Condra

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09-19-2012, 05:54 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by benjiv1 View Post
We're not drafting 1st overall. We're gonna draft 4th overall and take Monohan.
I'm expecting he goes third, minimum.

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09-19-2012, 06:09 PM
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Marvelous Manked
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As the Official President of the Sean Monahan Fan Club, I think 3rd is his most likely position, then fourth.

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09-19-2012, 06:34 PM
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As the Official President of the Sean Monahan Fan Club, I think 3rd is his most likely position, then fourth.
*Self-proclaimed President of the Sean Monahan Fan Club*

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09-19-2012, 06:40 PM
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I'm so terrified that the leafs will get monahan and we'll end up with stephen harper...

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09-19-2012, 06:55 PM
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Marvelous Manked
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*Self-proclaimed President of the Sean Monahan Fan Club*
That's what you think.

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09-19-2012, 08:23 PM
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Considering how relatively healthy the key players on our team were last season (relative to career trends especially Spezza), I think it was quite likely we would have taken a step back this season.

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09-19-2012, 08:48 PM
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if we were to play the season as is, i'm comfortable counting our pick as ~15th overall (some would argue ~12th is more realistic). Our odds place us at around 18th overall in a lottery situation.

so i'd bet that we end up with a worse pick from a lottery situation than from playing the season. Unless we get lucky.

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09-19-2012, 09:12 PM
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Does anyone have a link or list of the odds and the numbers of balls we would have in the pot?

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09-20-2012, 06:17 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DJB View Post
Does anyone have a link or list of the odds and the numbers of balls we would have in the pot?
See post #10 in this thread . We would have a 2% chance only.

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09-20-2012, 06:20 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by danishh View Post
if we were to play the season as is, i'm comfortable counting our pick as ~15th overall (some would argue ~12th is more realistic). Our odds place us at around 18th overall in a lottery situation.

so i'd bet that we end up with a worse pick from a lottery situation than from playing the season. Unless we get lucky.
Just wondering how you came up with 18th overall. I assume you put all the 6% teams first, then all the 4% teams, and then averaged the 2% teams, or something similar?

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09-21-2012, 12:16 PM
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Just wondering how you came up with 18th overall. I assume you put all the 6% teams first, then all the 4% teams, and then averaged the 2% teams, or something similar?
yeah.

i'm sure there's some statistical model to actually calculate our most probable spot and our mean and median spots, but i just eyeballed it. 13 teams with better odds than us + 1/2 17 teams with same odds as us = 21.5, actually, so i guess that would be a more appropriate number.

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09-21-2012, 02:44 PM
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Would be surprised if we were drafting anywhere outside 10-20 if this full season was played.

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09-21-2012, 06:22 PM
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I think we draft in the middle of the pack if there is a 2012-2013 NHL season.

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