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Old
11-27-2012, 07:11 PM
  #251
Holden Caulfield
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grind View Post

Conclusion number 1: Fans are out to lunch (myself included)

It's true, especially here on HFBoards where the 1st round pick is worth it's weight in gold. In the offseason, when nothings been determined for the following year, that pick has only a 43% chance of being anything more then 3rd pairing or 3rd line grinder. Nashville giving up 1st for Paul Gausted doesn't look so ridiculous now...

Conclusion Number 2: Trading up is a bad idea

Given the cost often associated with trading up, GM's are certainly almost always better off sitting tight. In fact, it can be argued that if your sitting just inside the top 10 (8th-10th) you should be burning up the phone lines trying to find that gm with the 2 first rounders in the bottom 13 for you. Even in the final 5, if your not sitting 30th, it hardly seems worth moving any additional assets for 10% increase in probability of landing something meaningful. On the flipside, the Stanley cup champ should always move his first rounder.
Remember that it wasn't an equal chance with Nashville either, that was a deadline deal so the pick was assured of being 20-30.

And sometimes you just gotta trust your scouts and roll the hard 6. Take that chance and move up to get the guy you want, in your mind your increasing your chances a lot more than that. Now I agree with you in that the hard numbers suggest that, and more often than not sitting back will be best, but you gotta take each situation individually and sometimes take some chances. Each team that has won a cup recently has taken the chances they needed too to win.

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11-27-2012, 08:10 PM
  #252
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Great work Grind. although I disagree with your first two conclusions, but for different reasons.

Conclusion #1. I do think that an org usually needs to hang on to their 1st (and sometimes 2nd round picks) especially if you are not contending, are trying to build your roster, and have a poor prospect pool . If you end up treating them as disposable assets, I think you run the risk of developing an aging roster, and you won't have capable prospects coming up the pipe to replace them.

Also, while there may not be high chance of getting a star with every 1st round pick, there is a 0% chance of getting a star with a pick you no longer own.

Conclusion #2 - I agree with Holden in that sometimes you just have to trust your scouts.

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11-27-2012, 08:50 PM
  #253
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Originally Posted by Huffer View Post
Great work Grind. although I disagree with your first two conclusions, but for different reasons.

Conclusion #1. I do think that an org usually needs to hang on to their 1st (and sometimes 2nd round picks) especially if you are not contending, are trying to build your roster, and have a poor prospect pool . If you end up treating them as disposable assets, I think you run the risk of developing an aging roster, and you won't have capable prospects coming up the pipe to replace them.

Also, while there may not be high chance of getting a star with every 1st round pick, there is a 0% chance of getting a star with a pick you no longer own.

Conclusion #2 - I agree with Holden in that sometimes you just have to trust your scouts.

obviously those conclusions were not be all-end all situations. WHile i do believe you should hold onto most of your first round picks, I can definitly see moving it being justified depending on the situation (age of talent coming back, how your pipeline looks currently). I definitly agree that you should not trade off your first round picks ad infinum, just meant that the "value" many place on it, IS out of line. A capable, proven third liner is not a bad return for 20+ pick, as those picks have no mor then a 40% chance of being anything more then a capable third liner, and they have 30% (in general, probably higher) of busting completely.


As for the second conclusion, I agree that you should trust your scouts. But, specific circumstance that can not be predicted aside (such as "your" guy being at X point) trading up is often more risk then its worth.

The main point of this was to hopefully draw some attention to an often overlooked flaw with alot of the HF boards mentality, and that's that at the end of the day, any given 1st round pick is less then a 50% chance of being more then a third liner, and therefore should not be valued the way it is (ie: the sentiment that a top 6 player barely gets you a top 10 pick alot of the time).


THe point of this was to generally develope a "baseline" worth of picks at a more specific level then round, and I think it does do that. It definitly helps establish the "breakdown" of picks within the 1st round and hopefully provides a better measuring stick for not only what to expect in return for players, but what to realistically expect out of our picks (IE: correcting for the overly optimistic projections of players like burmistrov and trouba)

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11-28-2012, 12:13 AM
  #254
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Not related to the current discussion, but draft related none the less:

If the Jets are going to take another legacy player, the son of ________

Let it be Max Domi


Obviously this will depend on where the Jets are picking, but I like this kid as a mid to late 1st.

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11-28-2012, 01:18 AM
  #255
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Quote:
Originally Posted by truck View Post
Not related to the current discussion, but draft related none the less:

If the Jets are going to take another legacy player, the son of ________

Let it be Max Domi


Obviously this will depend on where the Jets are picking, but I like this kid as a mid to late 1st.
The kid is obviously talented, but personally from the seven or so times I have watched him, I have come away less than thrilled. Now maybe it's just lack of quality viewings, but I honestly don't see what all the fuss is about him.

What it does really come down to is where their selection ends up being and who remains on the draft board at that stage.

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11-28-2012, 01:27 AM
  #256
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Originally Posted by untouchable21 View Post
The kid is obviously talented, but personally from the seven or so times I have watched him, I have come away less than thrilled. Now maybe it's just lack of quality viewings, but I honestly don't see what all the fuss is about him.

What it does really come down to is where their selection ends up being and who remains on the draft board at that stage.
Yeah, not saying he is elite, but I wouldn't mind him in the latter half of the first. Not married to him or any other prospect at this point, but it is worth noting TNSE's history of drafting 2nd generation players.

Kid can score, kid can pass and his character in TNSE worthy. Not sure they will draft somebody that small though. Will be something to watch.

Then again, maybe the whole season gets canned and we get another shiny top 10 pick. That would be nice.

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11-28-2012, 09:16 AM
  #257
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Not a huge fan, but the thing I like about him is that he doesn't play the way his size would indicate. He is a small sniper, but he's a bulldog around the net. He has a tenacious puck-hunting attitude.

Personally Adam Erne is my middle of the 1st round guy of choice. The Q has a ton of middle to late first talent this year in Erne, Gauthier, Carrier, etc. Aside from the top end talent in Mackinnon and Drouin.

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11-28-2012, 09:37 AM
  #258
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Originally Posted by Sweech View Post
Not a huge fan, but the thing I like about him is that he doesn't play the way his size would indicate. He is a small sniper, but he's a bulldog around the net. He has a tenacious puck-hunting attitude.

Personally Adam Erne is my middle of the 1st round guy of choice. The Q has a ton of middle to late first talent this year in Erne, Gauthier, Carrier, etc. Aside from the top end talent in Mackinnon and Drouin.
I will bet against the pick coming from the Q until it happens, just like I bet against Euros last year.

TNSE's lack of a dedicated QMJHL scout and no Q picks in two drafts leave me weary about focusing on them even though I like a number of the QMJHL prospects. I just want some flashy goal scoring / play making this year.

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11-28-2012, 09:40 AM
  #259
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Originally Posted by Sweech View Post
Not a huge fan, but the thing I like about him is that he doesn't play the way his size would indicate. He is a small sniper, but he's a bulldog around the net. He has a tenacious puck-hunting attitude.

Personally Adam Erne is my middle of the 1st round guy of choice. The Q has a ton of middle to late first talent this year in Erne, Gauthier, Carrier, etc. Aside from the top end talent in Mackinnon and Drouin.
Don't forget about Mantha. He is right in that tier of players and would seem to fit with TNSE trend of drafting skill/size wise.

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11-28-2012, 10:14 AM
  #260
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Originally Posted by truck View Post
I will bet against the pick coming from the Q until it happens, just like I bet against Euros last year.

TNSE's lack of a dedicated QMJHL scout and no Q picks in two drafts leave me weary about focusing on them even though I like a number of the QMJHL prospects. I just want some flashy goal scoring / play making this year.
I thought they addressed this this year and hired a dedicated Q scout?

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11-28-2012, 10:45 AM
  #261
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Originally Posted by Grind View Post
I thought they addressed this this year and hired a dedicated Q scout?
Isn't Perry Pearn scouting the Q for the Jets during the lockout?

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11-28-2012, 11:00 AM
  #262
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Originally Posted by truck View Post
Not related to the current discussion, but draft related none the less:

If the Jets are going to take another legacy player, the son of ________

Let it be Max Domi


Obviously this will depend on where the Jets are picking, but I like this kid as a mid to late 1st.
Domi is definitely a player I want the Jets to stay away from. Besides looking very inconsistent with his play, he also suffers from 2 fairly significant medical issues, type 1 diabetes and celiacs disease. To me those are major red flags, even with the type of medical and dietary solutions current medicine has available to suffers.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/junio...domi_diabetes/

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11-28-2012, 11:27 AM
  #263
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Pascal Vincent is scouting the Q for Winnipeg and I would anticipate we would draft a player from there considering the number of selections we have. Of course it still will always be the best player at the selection , but this is a change for Winnipeg as a scouting staff , and of course he has strong ties to the area and even more so will be respected , opinion wise , by Kevin Cheveldayoff.

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11-28-2012, 11:33 AM
  #264
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Originally Posted by untouchable21 View Post
Don't forget about Mantha. He is right in that tier of players and would seem to fit with TNSE trend of drafting skill/size wise.
Out of the Q:

I like Arne . I like Duclair as well, but he doesn't appear to have TNSE size. Many have Mantha graded outside of round 1, but that may well change. Gauthier is a mountain of a man (as a boy). Valentin Zykov is an interesting prospect as well. I quite enjoy Euro skaters though.

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11-28-2012, 11:49 AM
  #265
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Originally Posted by Paradise View Post
Domi is definitely a player I want the Jets to stay away from. Besides looking very inconsistent with his play, he also suffers from 2 fairly significant medical issues, type 1 diabetes and celiacs disease. To me those are major red flags, even with the type of medical and dietary solutions current medicine has available to suffers.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/junio...domi_diabetes/
A plus would be: You know this kid will eat healthy, plus it takes a lot to overcome that stuff. He wouldn't be my first choice, but the kid does have some skill.



I threw that out there because TNSE seems to like legacy players and the intangibles that they bring. I haven't liked all these picks. I don't want any more intangibles, I want more focus on scoring!! Domi offers some upside in that department along with the intangibles that TNSE desires.

Depending on where they draft (late half of the 1st), I am not opposed to Domi, even if he isn't my first choice.

Of course, we have no idea where they will be drafting. For all we know, they may well be drafting very early and render the Domi convo moot.

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11-28-2012, 11:52 AM
  #266
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Originally Posted by jetkarma View Post
Pascal Vincent is scouting the Q for Winnipeg and I would anticipate we would draft a player from there considering the number of selections we have. Of course it still will always be the best player at the selection , but this is a change for Winnipeg as a scouting staff , and of course he has strong ties to the area and even more so will be respected , opinion wise , by Kevin Cheveldayoff.
I really like the way TNSE has used the lockout to up their scouting.

From what I've read, many teams have trimmed their scouting staff, our Jets made it bigger. Go get em!!

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11-28-2012, 12:06 PM
  #267
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Originally Posted by truck View Post
A plus would be: You know this kid will eat healthy, plus it takes a lot to overcome that stuff. He wouldn't be my first choice, but the kid does have some skill.
The combination of those 2 illnesses really makes for a difficult time in keeping up ones energy levels, which could also be contributing to his consistency issues.


Quote:
I threw that out there because TNSE seems to like legacy players and the intangibles that they bring. I haven't liked all these picks. I don't want any more intangibles, I want more focus on scoring!! Domi offers some upside in that department along with the intangibles that TNSE desires.
I sure hope that they wouldn't draft him based on his bloodlines, while passing on players with higher upside. I also want the team to draft players that have high upside and skill, over just good intangibles. Obviously if you can find a player with both that would be great.


Quote:
Of course, we have no idea where they will be drafting. For all we know, they may well be drafting very early and render the Domi convo moot.
We can only hope that happens, cross your fingers and sacrifice a beer to the hockey gods

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11-28-2012, 12:15 PM
  #268
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Originally Posted by Paradise View Post
The combination of those 2 illnesses really makes for a difficult time in keeping up ones energy levels, which could also be contributing to his consistency issues.




I sure hope that they wouldn't draft him based on his bloodlines, while passing on players with higher upside. I also want the team to draft players that have high upside and skill, over just good intangibles. Obviously if you can find a player with both that would be great.




We can only hope that happens, cross your fingers and sacrifice a beer to the hockey gods
Some would argue they have done the opposite: Sutter, Lukas

Not saying that is what happened, but the appearance is there.

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11-28-2012, 12:29 PM
  #269
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Some would argue they have done the opposite: Sutter, Lukas

Not saying that is what happened, but the appearance is there.
I agree. I didn't like the pick then and still don't like it. To me Sutter may have had the prerequisites of good character, size and being difficult to play against, but he's project as a third line forward. A team shouldn't be using high picks to grab players with those types of projections IMO. He should have been a late 2nd early third IMO. There were more highly skilled players available with that pick. I thought Kosmochuk would have been a better pick there than Sutter.

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11-28-2012, 01:00 PM
  #270
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I really like the way TNSE has used the lockout to up their scouting.

From what I've read, many teams have trimmed their scouting staff, our Jets made it bigger. Go get em!!
The lock out has facilatated a bit of a perfect storm for the Jets. Multiple high draft choices , deep and talented draft class and great hockey people such as Charlie Huddy scouting their area of expertise , Pascal Vincent scouting his backyard , Kevin Cheveldayoff seeing many more propspects much more often in person , plus the full scouting staff .

This is a big plus for Winnipeg imo.

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11-28-2012, 01:16 PM
  #271
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Originally Posted by jetkarma View Post
The lock out has facilatated a bit of a perfect storm for the Jets. Multiple high draft choices , deep and talented draft class and great hockey people such as Charlie Huddy scouting their area of expertise , Pascal Vincent scouting his backyard , Kevin Cheveldayoff seeing many more propspects much more often in person , plus the full scouting staff .

This is a big plus for Winnipeg imo.
All teams are scouting more than they usually would, but I do agree with the other 2 parts you mentioned (multiple picks and deep class).

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11-28-2012, 01:27 PM
  #272
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Originally Posted by truck View Post
Out of the Q:

I like Arne . I like Duclair as well, but he doesn't appear to have TNSE size. Many have Mantha graded outside of round 1, but that may well change. Gauthier is a mountain of a man (as a boy). Valentin Zykov is an interesting prospect as well. I quite enjoy Euro skaters though.
I don't like Duclair at all. This goes back to last year and my opinion of him hasn't changed much for me.

I don't see him being any better than Athanasiou/Telegin. They're all top end speed guys, but I'm not sold on the rest of his skill set. I think his game has improved puck-control wise and he's a little more willing to go to the net, but I don't see much else in his game.

I see him topping out as Grabner, who I am also not high at all on. His speed may get lucky goals, but he's woefully inconsistent. And one good year might make you overpay for someone who actually isn't that good (What's up Islanders?!)

And yet another guy in the Q to keep an eye out on is also Nick Sorenson.

Stacked year for the Q.

Quote:
Originally Posted by untouchable21 View Post
Don't forget about Mantha. He is right in that tier of players and would seem to fit with TNSE trend of drafting skill/size wise.
The guy I see filling this mold is Hudson Fasching. If our pick comes up in the 2nd round and he's still on the board, I think it's almost a guarantee we take him. He has a great blend of athleticism/size/skill and is an outstanding character person. Considering his siblings and reading his story I was very impressed. I think he has TNSE written all over him.

Plus he has a hockey player name.


Last edited by Sweech: 11-28-2012 at 01:41 PM.
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11-28-2012, 01:32 PM
  #273
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I don't like Duclair at all. This goes back to last year and my opinion of him hasn't changed much for me.

I don't see him being any better than Athanasiou/Telegin. They're all top end speed guys, but I'm not sold on the rest of his skill set. I think his game has improved puck-control wise and he's a little more willing to go to the net, but I don't see much else in his game.

I see him topping out as Grabner, who I am also not high at all on. His speed may get lucky goals, but he's woefully inconsistent. And one good year might make you overpay for someone who actually isn't that good (What's up Islanders?!)

And yet another guy in the Q to keep an eye out on is also Nick Sorenson.

Stacked year for the Q.
This is one of the guys I like in the Q. I posted my comments about him in post #182. I'm hoping he's available with one of our 2nd rounders, but wouldn't be surprised if he slid into the late 1st.

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11-28-2012, 01:37 PM
  #274
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Originally Posted by Paradise View Post
This is one of the guys I like in the Q. I posted my comments about him in post #182. I'm hoping he's available with one of our 2nd rounders, but wouldn't be surprised if he slid into the late 1st.
I like that idea.

Give me offensive upside in round two!

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11-28-2012, 01:42 PM
  #275
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Originally Posted by Paradise View Post
All teams are scouting more than they usually would, but I do agree with the other 2 parts you mentioned (multiple picks and deep class).

That isn't actually accurate.

Some teams have cut back on their scouting , some teams have limited scouts to day trips , ie no overnight stays . This has been a cost cutting move for several teams , I know this has and is happening.

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