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Could the lockout be advantageous for Buffalo?

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09-29-2012, 07:41 AM
  #1
HiddenInLight
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Could the lockout be advantageous for Buffalo?

So with hockey shut down, and little news coming out of the league, I have started doing a lot of abstract what if type thinking. Through this I have started to wonder one question: Might missing this whole season actually be better for Buffalo in the long run? With the influx of youth many of which are just on the edge of being NHL ready or who cant play until next season anyways (Armia Grigorenko Girgensons Hodgeson Ennis McNabb Brennan Tropp Etc) I wonder if a year to gain experience in leagues that are generally less rough with an easier transition then the NHL may allow for Buffalo to return from a long lockout as a strong contenders. I remember a lot of posts saying Grigorenko needs another year in juniors as it would make him a better player. He has that now. Many of our younger guys are in rochester this year playing against other high talant young guys this year in the AHL. None of our top players are free agents aftr this year except for regehr leopold sulzer and enroth. Enroth wont be a tough signing and neither will Sulzer. Regehr and Leopold could be replaced by younger guys like McNabb and Brennan after an extra year of seasoning in an AHL that is halfway to becoming a hotspot for younger players. Our older players arent THATold with the exception of Regehr. With the extra draft i think Buffalo comes out as a very competitive young team with a very bright future.

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09-29-2012, 08:09 AM
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Dreakon
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Sure it could. I don't think anyone was really thinking this was "our year" anyways.

The rookies get another season of seasoning in their respective leagues and/or a loaded AHL. A lot of people were clamoring for this as it was.

Guys like Ennis get a full season of center play under his belt without the pressure of being forced into a Top 6 center position in the NHL.

A number of our older guys come back in their prime and depending on how signings go, we likely free up some cap and give the talented young'uns like McNabb a legit shot at making the team full-time.

Another draft worth of talent in the organization.

I guess my only concern comes in those players that are taking a full season off and what kind of shape they come back in (looking at you Stafford).

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09-29-2012, 11:07 AM
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haseoke39
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I think that the popularity of notions like "extra time spent in this league or that league makes a better player in the long run" is just based on hindsight bias. People are surprised by, and pay attention to, kids who have seemingly spent too much time in the minors but come out in the NHL looking great. So we tell ourselves a story that it was the time in the minors that did it. But there are just as many kids who spend lots of time in the minors and don't get better, or kids who mostly skip the minors and look great in the NHL.

Really, there's no principled way of making a rule about this. Only on a case by case basis, I think, can you say one league or the other might be better, and often only in hindsight. If a kid doesn't have the upper body strength, e.g., AND is prone to get into bad habits to compensate, maybe the NHL wasn't right for him at a certain age. But you can't come out and say this about a group of half a dozen prospects at once and conclude that therefore a lockout might make us better. There's just no way to know.

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09-29-2012, 11:10 AM
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Originally Posted by haseoke39 View Post
But you can't come out and say this about a group of half a dozen prospects at once and conclude that therefore a lockout might make us better. There's just no way to know.
Since we don't know, then a lockout might make us better.

Hence the use of words like 'could' and 'might'. It's all speculative.

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09-29-2012, 11:59 AM
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SackTastic
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29 other teams also get an extra draft and get to have their kids in the AHL too.

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09-29-2012, 12:10 PM
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sabresandcanucks
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I have thought about this as well but we need to be cautious.

1) Buffalo did very well after the last lockout so we might be assuming that history will repeat itself. I remember before the 2005-2006 season many hockey pundits picked the Sabres to be in the running for a lottery pick...I don't think that will be the case this time around.

2) It wasn't so much our young guys who brought us success as much as it was guys who were reaching the prime of their careers. Vanek was decent, but also found himself sitting some nights. Afinogenov led the team in scoring, Connolly and Kotalik had stellar years. Dumont, Briere, and Hecht...when healthy were Buffalo's most dangerous line. Sure we saw Roy and Pominville emerge as top 6 forwards...but they were more support players at that point who complimented that roster. Pommers was on the 4th line much of that season.

3) The rest of the league benefits as well. As decent as our prospect pool is other teams are better. Minnesota, Florida, and Edmonton all come to mind as in another class compared to Buffalo.

4) We don't know what the new CBA will be or if the league will change any of the games rules. The removal of the red line and the arrival of the salary cap benefited the Sabres last lockout.

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09-29-2012, 12:17 PM
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Selanne00008
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how does draft selection work after a full year lockout?

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09-29-2012, 12:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Selanne00008 View Post
how does draft selection work after a full year lockout?
In 2005 they did a lottery which was weighted depending on recent success, Pittsburgh won and picked Crosby. Buffalo despite having the same odds as the Penguins picked 13th, and selected Marek Zagrapan.

They might do something similar if it came to that, but it would likely be determined in the new CBA.

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09-29-2012, 03:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beechsack View Post
29 other teams also get an extra draft and get to have their kids in the AHL too.
29 other teams don't have a similar organizational situation of having several close-to-NHL-ready prospects and the need/desire to retool their roster. Team that are old/have poor prospect pools will just get a year farther away from their prime and contention window. Teams like Buffalo get a year closer to theirs.

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09-29-2012, 04:21 PM
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This doesnt account for the loss of chemistry that would be had...everyone has moderate hopes for this team based on the success of the stafford-ennis-foligno line. Lets be honest if that line hadnt emeraged we'd still be calamoring for stafford to be traded, perplexed by ennis's regression and foligno would still be an ahler for sure.

Take a year away from them playing together and that chemistry could be shattered.

Same could be said for Hodgson-Vanek and/or Christian and Sulzer...no telling what could happen in that regard.

Not saying its a huge deal but tis something to ponder

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09-29-2012, 04:41 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tsujimoto74 View Post
29 other teams don't have a similar organizational situation of having several close-to-NHL-ready prospects and the need/desire to retool their roster. Team that are old/have poor prospect pools will just get a year farther away from their prime and contention window. Teams like Buffalo get a year closer to theirs.
Buffalo is not the only team in this situation.

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09-29-2012, 04:43 PM
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Hodgson wanted traded because he wasn't happy as the 3rd line center in Vancouver. After the lockout Hodgson is going to be the Sabres 3rd line center. Kassian and Foligno could have been on the same line together

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09-29-2012, 04:57 PM
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Originally Posted by pigpen65 View Post
Hodgson wanted traded because he wasn't happy as the 3rd line center in Vancouver. After the lockout Hodgson is going to be the Sabres 3rd line center. Kassian and Foligno could have been on the same line together

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09-29-2012, 05:03 PM
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sabresandcanucks
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pigpen65 View Post
Hodgson wanted traded because he wasn't happy as the 3rd line center in Vancouver. After the lockout Hodgson is going to be the Sabres 3rd line center. Kassian and Foligno could have been on the same line together
More like Kassian will be on Vancouver's third line and Hodgson will be a solid 60 - 70 point center.

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09-29-2012, 05:37 PM
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tsujimoto74
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beechsack View Post
Buffalo is not the only team in this situation.
No, but there aren't 29 other teams in this situation either, which is the point I was actually making.

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09-29-2012, 05:48 PM
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Originally Posted by tsujimoto74 View Post
No, but there aren't 29 other teams in this situation either, which is the point I was actually making.
I think his point is more along the lines that Buffalo isn't going to gain the most from the lockout...or as much as we did after the last lock out.

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09-29-2012, 06:21 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GrigsAndGirgs View Post
In 2005 they did a lottery which was weighted depending on recent success, Pittsburgh won and picked Crosby. Buffalo despite having the same odds as the Penguins picked 13th, and selected Marek Zagrapan.

They might do something similar if it came to that, but it would likely be determined in the new CBA.
Yeah I remember getting screwed with Crosby. But I couldnt remember the process. I wonder what defines "recent success". But you'd think we be in the 5-10 range... Seems we always pick 12th or so last 5 years. give or take

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09-29-2012, 06:29 PM
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Originally Posted by Selanne00008 View Post
Yeah I remember getting screwed with Crosby. But I couldnt remember the process. I wonder what defines "recent success". But you'd think we be in the 5-10 range... Seems we always pick 12th or so last 5 years. give or take
By the 2005 system, we'd only have 1 ball of a possible 3. So our odds of picking high would be the same as teams like Boston, Philly, Detroit, Edmonton (only 1 ball because lol 3 freaking 1st overalls), etc.

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09-30-2012, 04:53 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sabresandcanucks View Post
More like Kassian will be on Vancouver's third line and Hodgson will be a solid 60 - 70 point center.
60-70 points on the 3rd line? That would be amazing. Not to mention, the last time he was on the 3rd line he demanded a trade.

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09-30-2012, 05:28 PM
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tsujimoto74
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Originally Posted by pigpen65 View Post
60-70 points on the 3rd line? That would be amazing. Not to mention, the last time he was on the 3rd line he demanded a trade.
1) That's a rumor, not a fact; 2) the other part of the rumor was that he was very unhappy with the way the Canucks organization handled his injuries.

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09-30-2012, 05:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pigpen65 View Post
60-70 points on the 3rd line?
So I take it that you don't think it's likely that CoHo starts his year off with Vanek on his wing?

Cuz TV has been effusive in his praise for Cody and the two of them looked to have some chemistry.

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09-30-2012, 06:58 PM
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I don't see CoHo (as the NHL currently is) as a 60-70 point player. At least not for the next 2-3 years. As he gains experience, As he trains in multiple off-seasons, I can see him eventually getting to 60,70, maybe even 80 points. But he is nowhere close to being that IMO.

High expectations breeds high disappointment.



Expect low, and be happy when he exceeds it.

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10-01-2012, 12:53 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sabresandcanucks View Post
More like Kassian will be on Vancouver's third line and Hodgson will be a solid 60 - 70 point center.
Or both could be awesome?

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10-01-2012, 07:35 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zman5778 View Post
So I take it that you don't think it's likely that CoHo starts his year off with Vanek on his wing?

Cuz TV has been effusive in his praise for Cody and the two of them looked to have some chemistry.
Foligno - Ennis - Stafford
Vanek - Hodgson - Pominville
Ott/Leino - Leino/Ott - Kaleta
Gerbe - McCormick - X / Scott


Am I missing something here? Who else would be a top 6 center?

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10-01-2012, 07:38 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HiddenInLight View Post
So with hockey shut down, and little news coming out of the league, I have started doing a lot of abstract what if type thinking. Through this I have started to wonder one question: Might missing this whole season actually be better for Buffalo in the long run? With the influx of youth many of which are just on the edge of being NHL ready or who cant play until next season anyways (Armia Grigorenko Girgensons Hodgeson Ennis McNabb Brennan Tropp Etc) I wonder if a year to gain experience in leagues that are generally less rough with an easier transition then the NHL may allow for Buffalo to return from a long lockout as a strong contenders. I remember a lot of posts saying Grigorenko needs another year in juniors as it would make him a better player. He has that now. Many of our younger guys are in rochester this year playing against other high talant young guys this year in the AHL. None of our top players are free agents aftr this year except for regehr leopold sulzer and enroth. Enroth wont be a tough signing and neither will Sulzer. Regehr and Leopold could be replaced by younger guys like McNabb and Brennan after an extra year of seasoning in an AHL that is halfway to becoming a hotspot for younger players. Our older players arent THATold with the exception of Regehr. With the extra draft i think Buffalo comes out as a very competitive young team with a very bright future.
Optimistic people always look for a silver lining in any bad situation, however there is not "ONE" good thing that will come out of this Lockout. The NHL needs to get back to the ice for any of he players to get better, that includes the prospects.

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