I was so worried when Vogelsong went through that stretch where he got knocked out in 3 innings several times. Glad he got his **** together because Cain and Bum hasn't looked as sharp lately.
I was so worried when Vogelsong went through that stretch where he got knocked out in 3 innings several times. Glad he got his **** together because Cain and Bum hasn't looked as sharp lately.
Cain should hopefully be fine against the Cards. He struggled against Cincy all season and it clearly carried over into the playoffs.
I'd rather keep Timmy in the bullpen right now. He's doing well there and Zito had a solid outing this year against the Cardinals. I'd give Zito the start and keep a short leash on him and have Timmy ready to go at the first sign of trouble.
Go Giants!!!! Rocking house again! Vogey was throwing darts all night, love how he just attacks the zone, more so with the lead. In reality his "bad" stretch was really just an unlucky, unsustainably high BABIP stretch.
Steal at least one in Stl and homefield is yours again! I'd be ok with Giants tradition of clinching on the road too, heh.
Gut feeling still says MadBum is hurt, watched him really closely in G1 and something really seems off. Hip/Shoulder? Most likely Dead Arm. He's definitely compensating mechanically.
Don't like any LH's vs. Cards' lineup, wouldn't mess around and just go Cain/Timmy next two and try to put Stl in the hole. Zito was the same Zito in 2010, except he got 6+runs/game this year, iirc he was slightly better in 2010. Power pitching wins in October, and Zito would just be playing with fire. I understand the point about losing Timmy in the BP and it sucks, but he has more value as a starter. Kontos has been great anyway.
EDIT:
Don't think any retaliation will be on tap for Holliday this series, too much on the line. He will definitely take one in the ribs next season though. Not saying he's a dirty player, or that it will have that big of an effect on the series in the long run but that was a ******* play anyway you look at it.
Go Giants!!!! Rocking house again! Vogey was throwing darts all night, love how he just attacks the zone, more so with the lead. In reality his "bad" stretch was really just an unlucky, unsustainably high BABIP stretch.
Steal at least one in Stl and homefield is yours again! I'd be ok with Giants tradition of clinching on the road too, heh.
Gut feeling still says MadBum is hurt, watched him really closely in G1 and something really seems off. Hip/Shoulder? Most likely Dead Arm. He's definitely compensating mechanically.
Don't like any LH's vs. Cards' lineup, wouldn't mess around and just go Cain/Timmy next two and try to put Stl in the hole. Zito was the same Zito in 2010, except he got 6+runs/game this year, iirc he was slightly better in 2010. Power pitching wins in October, and Zito would just be playing with fire. I understand the point about losing Timmy in the BP and it sucks, but he has more value as a starter. Kontos has been great anyway.
EDIT:
Don't think any retaliation will be on tap for Holliday this series, too much on the line. He will definitely take one in the ribs next season though. Not saying he's a dirty player, or that it will have that big of an effect on the series in the long run but that was a ******* play anyway you look at it.
The evidence suggests it would be better for them to start Zito. He had a solid outing in St. Louis this season and idealistically Timmy has more value as a starter. The reality is that Timmy's only value at this point has been in the pen. There's no reason to mess up a good thing. Keep Timmy in the pen, let Zito start, and give Timmy the nod if it's needed. Timmy is also not pitching in a way that he'd do well as a starter. Pitching out of the stretch to keep your mechanics straight is a slippery slope for him and it won't last long. He's in a good role right now since it's not going to require him to pitch six+ like he would as a starter and he's not really turned around yet.
It was a quality start but Cards aren't the same team. Jay wasn't their premier LO hitter yet, Furcal was still playing, Descalo and Kozma were not. Pretty sure Molina was KO'd sometime in early August too.
Timmy had a better year than Zito sans W/L, even in the worst year of his career. The standards are just different.
If Zito finishing strong was an argument for 2012 Zito over 2012 Timmy, then shouldn't Timmy's 8.1ip of vintage Timmy be weighted as well?
Zito and Timmy may both start with all that said. Bum is probably the odd man out, unfortunately.
It was a quality start but Cards aren't the same team. Jay wasn't their premier LO hitter yet, Furcal was still playing, Descalo and Kozma were not. Pretty sure Molina was KO'd sometime in early August too.
Timmy had a better year than Zito sans W/L, even in the worst year of his career. The standards are just different.
If Zito finishing strong was an argument for 2012 Zito over 2012 Timmy, then shouldn't Timmy's 8.1ip of vintage Timmy be weighted as well?
Zito and Timmy may both start with all that said. Bum is probably the odd man out, unfortunately.
First of all, if you believe Timmy's performance in these playoffs is vintage Timmy then there's no discussion to be had because it simply isn't true. Good numbers but again, it happened because he came out of the bullpen and didn't start. He's good in long relief right now. He doesn't have starter stuff right now, let alone vintage stuff. Better than Zito? Maybe. Better than Bum right now? Maybe. But Lincecum hasn't been working all year as a starter and he hasn't really turned it around.
First of all, if you believe Timmy's performance in these playoffs is vintage Timmy then there's no discussion to be had because it simply isn't true. Good numbers but again, it happened because he came out of the bullpen and didn't start. He's good in long relief right now. He doesn't have starter stuff right now, let alone vintage stuff. Better than Zito? Maybe. Better than Bum right now? Maybe. But Lincecum hasn't been working all year as a starter and he hasn't really turned it around.
His starter numbers are better than Zito's throughout the year. I really don't think this is disputable.
I've seen Timmy twice this postseason live, and he passes my eye ball test as vintage Timmy. I don't appreciate the tone that you are approaching me with. Timmy corrected his 2010 August and 2011 struggles by pitching out of the stretch even in his starts. It's what he's done as a reliever this postseason, and will probably how he will approach his start.
Again, I've seen plenty of Timmy live this year and past years and he definitely looks on atm. The bold is really unnecessary, but if you can prove me wrong so be it, I'll admit it. Biggest sign of vintage Timmy? Swingthroughs. He looked great, numbers or no numbers.
I've backed up my claims best I can, I'd love for you to address yours similarly.
EDIT:
Timmy's pitchFx has been only slightly below his 09 season, with his FB taking the biggest hit. Dunno how you can claim he doesn't have "starter" stuff. His struggles this year has been mental mistakes for the most part... and if his stuff is better than Zito and Bum's atm, he should definitely get a start right? Especially vs. a predominantly RH lineup w/ amazing splits vs. LHP.
Run support not adjusted for /9. Zito's BABIP is abnormally low, league average is around .300 even though his Line Drive rate has stayed steady at 20%. Layman's terms, people hit it right at defenders more often than not.
Last edited by Franchise13: 10-16-2012 at 12:18 AM.
His starter numbers are better than Zito's throughout the year. I really don't think this is disputable.
I've seen Timmy twice this postseason live, and he passes my eye ball test as vintage Timmy. I don't appreciate the tone that you are approaching me with. Timmy corrected his 2010 August and 2011 struggles by pitching out of the stretch even in his starts. It's what he's done as a reliever this postseason, and will probably how he will approach his start.
Again, I've seen plenty of Timmy live this year and past years and he definitely looks on atm. The bold is really unnecessary, but if you can prove me wrong so be it, I'll admit it. Biggest sign of vintage Timmy? Swingthroughs. He looked great, numbers or no numbers.
I've backed up my claims best I can, I'd love for you to address yours similarly.
That depends on what 'starter numbers' are. The team has played better with Zito on the mound as judged by the win-loss totals. Zito's WHIP is better. His ERA is better. The eyeball test may pass with you but that's obviously biased. Tone aside, his stuff is nowhere near vintage level. His power isn't there. His location is not there and even in this stretch coming out of the pen, his stuff has been up and guys are just missing them. If he keeps hanging those pitches, he will eventually get his ass handed to him.
As for the bold, it absolutely is necessary because you present no evidence to suggest that your statement is even close to accurate. Vintage Timmy occurs when swing-throughs happen on pitches nowhere near the strike zone. Swing-throughs are happening now out of pure luck that they're waving at hangers.
That depends on what 'starter numbers' are. The team has played better with Zito on the mound as judged by the win-loss totals. Zito's WHIP is better. His ERA is better. The eyeball test may pass with you but that's obviously biased. Tone aside, his stuff is nowhere near vintage level. His power isn't there. His location is not there and even in this stretch coming out of the pen, his stuff has been up and guys are just missing them. If he keeps hanging those pitches, he will eventually get his ass handed to him.
As for the bold, it absolutely is necessary because you present no evidence to suggest that your statement is even close to accurate. Vintage Timmy occurs when swing-throughs happen on pitches nowhere near the strike zone. Swing-throughs are happening now out of pure luck that they're waving at hangers.
Look at the PitchFX for the post season.
That's like saying the backup slider that Romo gets away with is pure luck? Technically that's a hanger too. WHIP and ERA are flawed because it's defense dependent Fip and XFip are not
The argument isn't Timmy vs. 2009/10/11 Timmy, it's Timmy vs. Zito in 2012.
I have all three Timmy appearances in the postseason readily available on the laptop, would love to know which pitches he "left up."
I've presented plenty of evidence.
Considering I make a damn good living not being "biased" in my observations, I think I give Timmy a more than realistic and fair look.
The beauty of baseball is it's both predictable and unpredictable at the same time. Regardless of whatever metrics you use, and baseball is the easiest to Sabre metrically measure, the most unlikely of outcomes can still occur.
Players are still human, a bad sandwich for breakfast, a start player in the middle of a crumbling relationship or whatever can run a team's season without fans/teammates ever knowing.
I think that with the Giants, especially with Bochy, it's going to be a gut decision more than anything. IMO, Bochy is/was looking for a reason to start Timmy and he's gotten it. Whether it will actually work out is another question, but he's definitely earned it.
Numbers favor him even if ever so slightly. But to Bochy, it's the guy who has two cy's and playoff mvp (ruth award) beating the unbeatable Cliff Lee twice.
Not having him in the pen would suck, but hopefully it won't come up.
Go Giants!
(Mrs. is bugging me to go to bed, I'll end on that lol)
That's like saying the backup slider that Romo gets away with is pure luck? Technically that's a hanger too. WHIP and ERA are flawed because it's defense dependent Fip and XFip are not
The argument isn't Timmy vs. 2009/10/11 Timmy, it's Timmy vs. Zito in 2012.
I have all three Timmy appearances in the postseason readily available on the laptop, would love to know which pitches he "left up."
I've presented plenty of evidence.
Considering I make a damn good living not being "biased" in my observations, I think I give Timmy a more than realistic and fair look.
All you have to do is watch the replays of where his pitches are to see what spots he's hitting with his pitches. As for the Romo comparisons, when he is hanging them over the plate, he is getting lucky too. Romo's success with those sliders is that he's been able to pin them on the outside or backdoor it inside but not right down the middle and he's struggled when he leaks them out too.
Fip and xfip are estimations and guesses based on league averages. It's meaningless in the here and now. Your evidence is flawed and not based on what is actually happening. This is the first time Lincecum has gotten any breaks when it comes to what he has actually brought to the table. The fact that he's still pitching from the stretch is pretty telling in itself. If he was right and vintage Lincecum, he wouldn't be doing that. He's gotten some results coming out of the pen and I don't see a good enough reason to change that. Zito didn't get any help going into his playoff start since it was eight days since the start prior to that. The same could be used in Bumgarner's case since he has had to wait extra days for his starts and that can screw up pitchers.
I don't think Bochy thinks that this is the same Lincecum that won in 2010. If he did, he would've been out of the pen earlier and wouldn't have been used in game one in relief.
I like how you weren't able to give me one example of a pitch Lincecum hung and was whiffed on. Not one. Why? There wasn't one, the one pitch he made a mistake on was to Drew Stubbs and the pitch was hammered for a double and led to his one run allowed.
It's funny that you mention pitching out of the stretch as a sign that things aren't right... You know who pitched out of the stretch during his "rough" stretcheslast year and won game 7 of the WS? Hint: He pitched last night.
xFip and Fip are far more accurate than WHIP and ERA are at gauging an individual's performance. If you want something newer, look up SIERA, it hasn't been adopted by scouting agencies we use though. Tampa and Boston are really the only teams that early adopt. Not sure what other agencies use as a scouting reference.
Zito throws an 83mph Fastball, yet the stuff in question is Lincecum's. 83. Pretty sure scouts wouldn't even come back to see a player in high school if they saw that on the gun the first time. He has a plus curve if his command is good, but man if you wanna talk hangers, re watch that Zito start.
Bochy using Lincecum out of the pen in G1 means nothing to his intent to start him in G4. It was his normal bullpen side session day, he'd have thrown regardless. He just happened to throw his in an actual game.
But alas, a coworker who reads here just asked me why I even bothered with this. I dunno why I bothered either. I was hoping that maybe if presented with actual evidence, and if I stayed up later I probably would've put up video evidence you would've changed your mind or at least acknowledged it's legitimacy. But regardless, I'll say that I appreciate your Giants' interest and we'll just agree to disagree.
Go Giants!
(time to actually work at work)
EDIT:
Clowe Me-
Now that I've calmed down a bit. I dunno that Holliday's play was "dirty" moreso than just really, really reckless. I don't think Holliday meant to try and hurt Scoots, which I think is required to call someone dirty. He went about trying to break the DP up in a manner that put Scutaro's career in danger. He'll get his FB to the ribs, and that's the end of that. Hopefully it won't be Zito throwing to him like Fielder/Zito this past spring lol.
That Scutaro Holliday play at 2nd is really a tough baseball play to judge.
Holliday was clearly waaaay late with his slide, and barely touched the bag on his way over it. However, part of me was thinking "Scutaro, what the hell are you doing just standing there?! Jump out of the way!".
Scutaro is a vet and should have know that a ball hit that slowly to short means the runner on 1st is probably going to be coming in hard to break up the DP, but Holliday should have exercised more caution and slid much earlier.
