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The Battle of Ontario!

View Poll Results: Better team over next 10 years - Ott vs Tor
Sens Fan Voting Ottawa 63 26.92%
Ottawa 128 54.70%
Leafs Fan Voting Toronto 24 10.26%
Leafs 19 8.12%
Voters: 234. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
10-09-2012, 06:19 PM
  #76
The Chiddler
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Samsquanch View Post
Thanks, it seems you've finally grasped the concept of this poll. People need to let go of the 10 year period thing, I threw that in at the last second, moreso for the leafs fans who I thought might whine that I didnt give their boys (mainly Reilly) enough time to develope.

I guess the only difference is that like 80-90% of HFboards agrees with me, but hey whos counting (oh wait the poll overhead is..)

The only reason you are getting so defensive is because this is an Ottawa vs Toronto thread, and the leafs have clearly lost, badly I might add. No one in here is a rabid fan saying Ottawa is about to rip up the league with their super stars. But are we better than Toronto? I have no problem saying with confidence OMFG yes to that question
So you've proven that the sens did indeed finish higher then the leafs in the standings last year, congratulations for such an accomplishment man. There's no hockey being played, it's very easy to make an argument that may be based a little too much on last season. It's how it is every summer, the only difference this year is it's already rolling steadily into fall with no hockey in sight.

Quote:
Let it go friend, Michalek is statistically better. Deal with this news however you however you'd like.
Michalek was on a dominant San Jose team for most of his career, his stats since he's been on the Sens have been much less impressive.

And if you're talking career PPG

Playoff stats:

Lupul 39 GP 23 points 0.60 PPG

Michalek 47 GP 18 Points 0.38 PPG

Ouch

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Old
10-09-2012, 06:25 PM
  #77
LeafOfBread
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Samsquanch View Post
Thanks, it seems you've finally grasped the concept of this poll. People need to let go of the 10 year period thing, I threw that in at the last second, moreso for the leafs fans who I thought might whine that I didnt give their boys (mainly Reilly) enough time to develope.

Whos better going forward. Answer: Ottawa (Zeke thats for you brother)



So your crying that I didnt list that inone of the three seasons I listed, Lupul on played only 56 games???? Dude just give it up, it's not my fault he hasnt played any other decent seasons..

He missed 9 more games over that same period of time, and scored 29 less points.

MM
234 gp 178 pts 0.76ppg

JL
225 gp 149 pts 0.66ppg


Let it go friend, Michalek is statistically better. Deal with this news however you however you'd like.




Im not pimping him to be anything more than better than Lupul? Does it hurt that what I say is true?

How bout we go with the injury excuse like you have been with Lupul. He's a 27 year old fast/strong sniper who just got his health back at 26 after 2 years of recovery from a major surgery. He was leading the NHL in goals in December until his own team mate injured him (But still scored 35).

See I can do it too.



I guess the only difference is that like 80-90% of HFboards agrees with me, but hey whos counting (oh wait the poll overhead is..)

The only reason you are getting so defensive is because this is an Ottawa vs Toronto thread, and the leafs have clearly lost, badly I might add. No one in here is a rabid fan saying Ottawa is about to rip up the league with their super stars. But are we better than Toronto? I have no problem saying with confidence OMFG yes to that question
So basically, you admitted to making this poll because you knew Ottawa would get more votes? LMAO. How typical. It doesn't matter if you "threw it in", it's still there, what a foolish thing to say.

And lol @ Lupul's only decent season, how about you actually read his stat lines and compare his seasons to Michalek's, they are virtually the same.

Also, you were the one who talked about the injuries first, not me, I was replying to what you said. No "excuse".

You are taking everything I'm saying, and twisting it into unrelated discussion. I'm talking only about Joffrey Lupul, I knew the results of this poll before I even opened it, do you really think I give a crap that HF thinks Ottawa is going to be better? That's wonderful, it's a prediction, nothing more, nothing less. I'm not a loser who worries about what the HF population thinks of my team and I don't need to have my ego stroked by poll results. We've already had many of these threads every year, I don't see why the results for this poll would be any different from the recent Toronto vs Ottawa ones we've had, especially because there isn't even a hockey season or any new training camp/pre-season information to go off of.

Your agenda is pretty obvious, why else would you create a thread like this, comparing a playoff team to another team that finished in the bottom 5 of the league? Can you honestly tell me you didn't know that this poll would be in heavy favour of Ottawa?

This poll isn't even about Lupul and Michalek, it's simply comparing the two teams. How the hell does that last statement you wrote even apply to what I've been talking about?

You seem to have some sort of inferiority complex because you're so desperate to prove that Ottawa is better. With the exception of zeke, a lot of Leaf fans here have already stated that Ottawa is the better team currently.

You can't even prove that Michalek is overall a better player properly or show that there is such a big difference between the two, like you make it sound.


Last edited by Holden Caulfield: 10-09-2012 at 07:56 PM. Reason: flaming
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Old
10-09-2012, 06:30 PM
  #78
trentmccleary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zeke View Post
I'm sorry if it hurts your pretty eyes, but all i've done is give a full set of stats for the entire rosters, side by side for everyone's convenience.

the stats were posted, with no conclusions drawn, for anyone to look at and draw heir own conclusions.
You've clearly attempted to make nonsensical comparisons to try to try to manipulate them. There isn't any useful knowledge to be gained by comparing players in pro leagues vs amateur leagues, nor by comparing players in vastly different positions.

Thank you for wasting your time making that ugly chart, but I'll just go with what we already know to be true:
Ottawa has stronger forwad and goalie prospects. The Leafs have the edge on defense.

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10-09-2012, 06:30 PM
  #79
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Its pretty foolish to be comparing Lupul and Michalek. That said, I think its foolish for Leafs fans to assume Lupul will be injury free and just as good as last year as well (same as some Sens fans doing with Michalek).

First you cannot look at what these two teams will do with FA. Both teams could add lots and be much better.

Current Rosters:

Forwards: If your simply looking at rosters, I can see someone picking the Leafs. But when looking at their on ice production under current coaching, Sens get the slight edge IMO.

Defense: Again, on paper, I think you'd choose the Leafs. But on ice production, the Leafs seemed to fall apart. Offensively, the Sens have a huge edge. But I'd call it a wash (based on roster and on ice production).

Goaltending: Edge to Ottawa. Not hard to pick on that front.

Future Rosters (Prospects):

Forwards: Ottawa. They have more diverse and higher end prospects.

Defense: Toronto

Goaltending: Ottawa.



Finally;

Coaching: I'd give edge to Ottawa on this one. In Toronto, Coaching has yet to be able to put it together for Toronto, and it doesn't seem the players give a whole lot of respect to their coaches at this point.


So when I look to the future for these two teams. I see a very highly offensive team in Ottawa with better goaltending. While I see Toronto being better defensively, with not as good offense or goaltending.

And coaching/prospect development/leadership is where I give Ottawa the edge.

That said, if Leafs could figure out how to put their team together and actually be able to compete for a full season, this wouldn't be quite as easy a decision. It would be crazy to not pick Ottawa at this point (ignoring FA adds and trades - which could help both teams), but I think it will be closer than some Sens fans think.


Last edited by Orr123: 10-09-2012 at 06:37 PM.
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Old
10-09-2012, 06:56 PM
  #80
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Chiddler View Post
Joe Colborne has the potential to be a number 1 center.
Ya. Good luck with that.

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Chiddler View Post
So you've proven that the sens did indeed finish higher then the leafs in the standings last year, congratulations for such an accomplishment man.
Also have proved the Sens look better beyond next year, in the eyes of other hockey fans that arent sens or leafs fans.

Quote:
Originally Posted by LeafOfBread View Post
Your agenda is pretty obvious, why else would you create a thread like this, comparing a playoff team to another team that finished in the bottom 5 of the league? Can you honestly tell me you didn't know that this poll would be in heavy favour of Ottawa? If you say yes, you're either a liar or severely incoherent.

This poll isn't even about Lupul and Michalek, it's simply comparing the two teams. How the hell does that last statement you wrote even apply to what I've been talking about?

You seem to have some sort of inferiority complex because you're so desperate to prove that Ottawa is better. With the exception of zeke, a lot of Leaf fans here have already stated that Ottawa is the better team currently.

You can't even prove that Michalek is overall a better player properly or show that there is such a big difference between the two, like you make it sound.
Listen you guys are way too bent out of shape just because the question was posed, "Whos better going forward?" A lot of leaf fans who didnt vote in here believe you guys are, so whats the big deal?

There were some leaf fans the other night who completely disagreed that Ottawa was the better team moving forward, and I felt curious to see if it was just my bias, or if Ottawa was in fact in waaaaay better shape moving forward. The question has been answered.

I dont care about Lupul and Michalek anymore, seriously. I like Michalek more for my team, but absolutely no where did I say he was waaaay better. They are EXTREMELEY comparable. You guys are just making that up to get yourselves all riled up. Keep on fighting the good fight though boys!

As it's been said, this is Leafs vs Sens as a whole, so lets just drop the 1 v 1 comparisons. And yes, I expected the results to favour the Sens, but I certainly didnt know for sure. Not even I thought it would be this lopsided.


Last edited by Holden Caulfield: 10-09-2012 at 07:58 PM. Reason: quoted edited post
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Old
10-09-2012, 07:05 PM
  #81
The Chiddler
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Samsquanch View Post
I never said he was clearly a better player than both Lupul and Grabvski.

Michalek & Turris >>> Lupul and Grabovski

And I stand by that.
Okay, I disagree with that, but I'm arguing that I don't think he's clearly better then EITHER of them.


Quote:
You bring up Michalek's two previous years where he was absolutely riddled with injuries, and call him out for it, yet you seem to give Lupul a bunch of leeway there. Why is that?
Umm.. what? I didn't "Give him leeway", he had a 0.78 PPG in the last 3 years, injury or not. Michalek had a 0.61 PPG in the last 3 years, injury or not.

Quote:
I can tell you Michalek certainly has not ever put together a season as bad as this;

gp81 g16 a12 p28 -29

At age 22 no less.

Here is what Michalek did at age 22, before he ran into knee problems (which have since been repaired and are 100%)

gp78 g26 a40 p66 +19


Michalek is the more consistent, more productive player of the two.
This HAS to be the stupidest argument I've ever seen, what does 1 season 5 years ago have to do with anything now? What's so important about the age 22?

In 06/07 Michalek was on San Jose in 1st place, while Lupul was with Edmonton in last place, who do you think had the better chance to succeed? Bringing up +/- in this circumstance is laughable.

You bring up Michalek's best season and compare it to Lupul's worst season, to prove that Michalek is a more consistent, productive player? Funniest serious argument I've ever heard.


Quote:
And lastly, does playing with Kessel not help Lupul tremendously?? You bring up Spezza and failed to mention him at all.. Strange. As you said, Lupul is more of a playmaker, and Kessel is a sniper. Seems like a match made in heaven.
You are the one that brought it up "Michalek is the type of player all teams covet; Big, Strong, Fast, defensively responsible, and can play with your teams top line center." All I said was that Lupul is more then capable of playing with a top line center. It is a match made in heaven, imagine if they had a good center like Spezza.

Quote:
But any how if I had to hedge my bet, more teams would be in need of Milan Michalek on their 1st line than Lupul. Although there's some, there's not many teams that would have luxury of playing MM on the second line. Good teams build from the center, and add guys like this to compliment their star centers. You should pass the memo on to Burkie.
The Toronto Maple Leafs just so happen to be one of the teams with that luxury, including Anaheim, Boston, Buffalo, Calgary, Dallas, Detroit, Edmonton, LA, Minnesota, Montreal, NJ, NYR, Philly, SJ, St Louis, Vancouver, Washington. Like I said, not an ideal 1st liner, but neither is Lupul really.

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Old
10-09-2012, 07:14 PM
  #82
zeke
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Originally Posted by NyQuil View Post
Sorry zeke, but mixing the last two Ottawa seasons is like apples and oranges.

29th in scoring under Clouston?

4th in scoring under MacLean?

I understand why you did what you did, but don't pretend we haven't noticed.

Otherwise, I assume you believe that Carlyle will have no impact on the fortunes and production of his players?

That's a pretty depressing thought.

Ok, so I did just last year just for you.

I was able to add in hits and blocks to the comparison, too.

p.s. in all my comparisons, the forwards are generally ordered from best PPG to worst, with sometimes small tweaks in very close rankings to make more sensible matchups (i.e. flipping turris and greening so that the 22yr old top-5 pick turris is matched up with the 22yr old top-5 pick JVR), while the defensemen are generally ordered from most MPG to least (again, sometimes with exceptions in very close ranks).



2011-12 Stats for the 2012-13 Leafs v. Sens Rosters


W P.Kessel (25): 82gms, 37gls, 82pts, 12ht, 21bk, 20:03 (82gms, 37gls, 82pts, 12ht, 21bk)
C J.Spezza (28): 80gms, 34gls, 84pts, 28ht, 23bk, 19:55 (82gms, 35gls, 86pts, 29ht, 24bk)

W J.Lupul (28): 66gms, 25gls, 67pts, 110ht, 25bk, 18:37 (82gms, 31gls, 83pts, 137ht, 31bk)
W M.Michalek (27): 77gms, 35gls, 60pts, 36ht, 46bk, 19:33 (82gms, 37gls, 64pts, 38ht, 49bk)

C M.Grabovski (27): 74gms, 23gls, 51pts, 56ht, 32bk, 17:36 (82gms, 26gls, 57pts, 62ht, 36bk)
W D.Alfredsson (39): 75gms, 27gls, 59pts, 52ht, 31bk, 18:57(82gms, 30gls, 65pts, 57ht, 34bk)


C T.Bozak (25): 73gms, 18gls, 47pts, 117ht, 34bk, 18:51 (82gms, 20gls, 53pts, 131ht, 38bk)
W G.Latendresse (24): 16gms, 5gls, 9pts, 37ht, 3bk, 15:11 (82gms, 26gls, 46pts, 190ht, 15bk)

W C.MacArthur (26): 73gms, 20gls, 43pts, 60ht, 21bk, 15:51 (82gms, 23gls, 48pts, 67ht, 24bk)
W C.Greening (25): 82gms, 17gls, 37pts, 189ht, 48bk, 15:35 (82gms, 17gls, 37pts, 189ht, 48bk)

W J.VanDyk (22): 43gms, 11gls, 24pts, 37ht, 18bk, 15:10 (82gms, 21gls, 46pts, 71ht, 34bk)
C K.Turris (22): 55gms, 12gls, 29pts, 23ht, 14bk, 16:51 (82gms, 18gls, 43pts, 34ht, 21bk)


C T.Connolly (30): 70gms, 13gls, 36pts, 29ht, 76bk, 17:00 (82gms, 15gls, 42pts, 34ht, 89bk)
C P.Regin (25): 10gms, 2gls, 4pts, 6ht, 3bk, 14:06 (82gms, 16gls, 33pts, 49ht, 25bk)

W N.Kulemin (25): 70gms, 7gls, 28pts, 97ht, 43bk, 15:13 (82gms, 8gls, 33pts, 114ht, 50bk)
W C.Neil (32): 72gms, 13gls, 28pts, 271ht, 20bk, 12:48 (82gms, 15gls, 32pts, 309ht, 23bk)

W M.Frattin (23): 56gms, 8gls, 15pts, 81ht, 12bk, 13:10 (82gms, 12gls, 22pts, 119ht, 18bk)
C Z.Smith (24): 81gms, 14gls, 26pts, 168ht, 43bk, 14:04 (82gms, 14gls, 26pts, 170ht, 44bk)


C J.McClement (28): 80gms, 10gls, 17pts, 72ht, 54bk, 13:45 (82gms, 10gls, 17pts, 74ht, 55bk)
W E.Condra (25): 81gms, 8gls, 25pts, 16ht, 69bk, 14:10 (82gms, 8gls, 25pts, 16ht, 70bk)

C D.Steckel (29): 76gms, 8gls, 13pts, 170ht, 66bk, 12:50 (82gms, 9gls, 14pts, 183ht, 71bk)
C J.O'Brien (23): 28gms, 3gls, 6pts, 28ht, 9bk, 11:45 (82gms, 9gls, 18pts, 82ht, 26bk)

W M.Brown (26): 50gms, 2gls, 4pts, 120ht, 24bk, 9:17 (82gms, 3gls, 7pts, 189ht, 39bk)
W K.Daugavins (23): 65gms, 5gls, 11pts, 58ht, 33bk, 11:20 (82gms, 6gls, 14pts, 73ht, 42bk)



F M.Lombardi (29): 62gms, 8gls, 18pts, 58ht, 34bk, 13:34 (82gms, 11gls, 24pts, 77ht, 45bk)
W S.DaCosta (22): 22gms, 3gls, 5pts, 14ht, 13bk, 12:10 (82gms, 11gls, 19pts, 52ht, 49bk)

C J.Colborne (21): 10gms, 1gls, 5pts, 20ht, 8bk, 13:41 (82gms, 8gls, 41pts, 164ht, 66bk)
C M.Zibanejad (18): 9gms, 0gls, 1pts, 15ht, 5bk, 12:54 (82gms, 0gls, 9pts, 137ht, 46bk)

W N.Kadri (21): 21gms, 5gls, 7pts, 25ht, 5bk, 14:10 (82gms, 20gls, 27pts, 98ht, 20bk)
W J.Silfverberg (21): ----




Defensemen

D D.Phaneuf (26): 82gms, 12gls, 44pts, 214ht, 127bk, 25:17 (82gms, 12gls, 44pts, 214ht, 127bk)
D E.Karlsson (21): 81gms, 19gls, 78pts, 60ht, 65bk, 25:19 (82gms, 19gls, 79pts, 61ht, 66bk)

D J.Liles (31): 66gms, 7gls, 27pts, 68ht, 111bk, 21:21 (82gms, 9gls, 34pts, 85ht, 138bk)
D S.Gonchar (37): 74gms, 5gls, 37pts, 48ht, 115bk, 22:15 (82gms, 6gls, 41pts, 53ht, 127bk)


D C.Gunnarsson (25): 76gms, 4gls, 19pts, 114ht, 152bk, 21:42 (82gms, 4gls, 21pts, 123ht, 164bk)
D M.Lundin (27): 17gms, 0gls, 2pts, 3ht, 35bk, 20:12 (82gms, 0gls, 10pts, 15ht, 169bk)

D J.Gardiner (21): 75gms, 7gls, 30pts, 52ht, 90bk, 21:35 (82gms, 8gls, 33pts, 57ht, 98bk)
D M.Methot (26): 46gms, 1gls, 7pts, 106ht, 52bk, 20:03 (82gms, 2gls, 13pts, 201ht, 93bk)


D M.Komisarek (30): 45gms, 1gls, 5pts, 104ht, 80bk, 16:39 (82gms, 2gls, 9pts, 190ht, 146bk)
D C.Phillips (33): 80gms, 5gls, 19pts, 134ht, 137bk, 19:07 (82gms, 5gls, 20pts, 137ht, 140bk)

D C.Franson (24): 57gms, 5gls, 21pts, 102ht, 53bk, 16:11 (82gms, 7gls, 30pts, 147ht, 76bk)
D J.Cowen (21): 82gms, 5gls, 17pts, 217ht, 74bk, 18:54 (82gms, 5gls, 17pts, 217ht, 74bk)

D K.Holzer (23): -----
D M.Borowiecki (22): 2gms, 0gls, 0pts, 4ht, 0bk, 12:30 (82gms, 0gls, 0pts, 164ht, 0bk)

D P.Ranger (28): ----
D P.Wiercioch (22): ----



Goalies

G J.Reimer (23): 32gms, 14-14-4, 3.10gaa, 3so, .900sv%
G C.Anderson (30): 63gms, 33-22-6, 2.84gaa, 3so, .914sv%

G B.Scrivens (25): 12gms, 4-5-2, 3.12gaa, 0so, .903sv%
G B.Bishop (25): 10gms, 3-3-2, 2.48gaa, 0so, .909sv%

G M.Owuya (22): ----
G R.Lehner (20): 5gms, 3-2-0, 2.01gaa, 1so, .935sv%


Last edited by zeke: 10-09-2012 at 08:42 PM.
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Old
10-09-2012, 07:21 PM
  #83
MoreGore
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I may be a Sens fan, but I applaud Zeke for doing some real work.

I still think your overzealous, but you're willing to put in some solid effort

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10-09-2012, 07:22 PM
  #84
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Originally Posted by trentmccleary View Post
You've clearly attempted to make nonsensical comparisons to try to try to manipulate them.
that's really not true.

all the comparisons are very sensible.

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10-09-2012, 07:41 PM
  #85
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Originally Posted by Samsquanch View Post
Ya. Good luck with that.



Also have proved the Sens look better beyond next year, in the eyes of other hockey fans that arent sens or leafs fans.

Listen you guys are way too bent out of shape just because the question was posed, "Whos better going forward?" A lot of leaf fans who didnt vote in here believe you guys are, so whats the big deal?

There were some leaf fans the other night who completely disagreed that Ottawa was the better team moving forward, and I felt curious to see if it was just my bias, or if Ottawa was in fact in waaaaay better shape moving forward. The question has been answered.

I dont care about Lupul and Michalek anymore, seriously. I like Michalek more for my team, but absolutely no where did I say he was waaaay better. They are EXTREMELEY comparable. You guys are just making that up to get yourselves all riled up. Keep on fighting the good fight though boys!

As it's been said, this is Leafs vs Sens as a whole, so lets just drop the 1 v 1 comparisons. And yes, I expected the results to favour the Sens, but I certainly didnt know for sure. Not even I thought it would be this lopsided.
Are those really the only 2 things you're going to respond to? You pick out bits and pieces of a post and only respond to what you want to. So do you agree with the rest of what I said?

Did you really PROVE that the sens are "in fact in waaaaay better shape moving forward." though? I don't really think you have, unless you think HF posters opinions are always 100% correct. We have more then enough proof that they aren't, since people generally can't see into the future.

You're backtracking on things you're wrong about, now you only want to talk about whether or not the Sens "Look" like they will be better then the Leafs now and later. That topic is very vague, and hard to dispute as a Leaf fan when nothing new has happened since last season. This is a thread that was made purely to stroke Sens fans egos, forgive us if we say something to defend our players when you say stuff like

Quote:
Let it go friend, Michalek is statistically better. Deal with this news however you however you'd like.
Quote:
Michalek is the more consistent, more productive player of the two.
Quote:
Michalek & Turris >>> Lupul and Grabovski
You trash our players, and then when you're proven wrong you don't want to talk about it anymore.


Last edited by Holden Caulfield: 10-09-2012 at 07:59 PM. Reason: quoted edited post
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Old
10-09-2012, 07:46 PM
  #86
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Originally Posted by MoreGore View Post
I may be a Sens fan, but I applaud Zeke for doing some real work.

I still think your overzealous, but you're willing to put in some solid effort
Ahaha I have to agree, it might not always be relevant, but he always posts the same stats. I think everyone would have to admit that he doesnt pick and chose his stats, at the very least.

I think people are just gonna have to accept him and realise he's not gonna change.

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10-09-2012, 07:47 PM
  #87
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Originally Posted by Samsquanch View Post
So your crying that I didnt list that inone of the three seasons I listed, Lupul on played only 56 games???? Dude just give it up, it's not my fault he hasnt played any other decent seasons..

He missed 9 more games over that same period of time, and scored 29 less points.

MM
234 gp 178 pts 0.76ppg

JL
225 gp 149 pts 0.66ppg


Let it go friend, Michalek is statistically better. Deal with this news however you however you'd like.
The last time Michalek put up a better PPG than Lupul was 4 seasons ago. Lupul's been more productive than him in 4 of the last 5 years - and much more productive than him in most of them.

The only thing Michalek has been better than Lupul at in the past 5 seasons is staying healthy.


2011-12

M.Michalek: 77gms, 35gls, 60pts (82gms, 37gls, 64pts)
J.Lupul: 66gms, 25gls, 67pts (82gms, 31gls, 83pts)

2010-11

M.Michalek: 66gms, 18gls, 33pts (82gms, 22gls, 41pts)
J.Lupul: 54gms, 14gls, 31pts (82gms, 21gls, 47pts)

2009-10

M.Michalek: 66gms, 22gls, 34pts (82gms, 27gls, 42pts)
J.Lupul: 23gms, 10gls, 14pts (82gms, 36gls, 50pts)

2008-09

M.Michalek: 77gms, 23gls, 57pts (82gms, 24gls, 61pts)
J.Lupul: 79gms, 25gls, 50pts (82gms, 26gls, 52pts)

2007-08

M.Michalek: 79gms, 24gls, 55pts (82gms, 25gls, 57pts)
J.Lupul: 56gms, 20gls, 46pts (82gms, 30gls, 67pts)


Last 2yrs:

M.Michalek: 143gms, 53gls, 93pts (82gms, 30gls, 53pts)
J.Lupul: 120gms, 39gls, 98pts (82gms, 27gls, 67pts)

Last 3yrs:

M.Michalek: 209gms, 75gls, 127pts (82gms, 29gls, 50pts)
J.Lupul: 143gms, 49gls, 112pts (82gms, 28gls, 64pts)

Last 5yrs:

M.Michalek: 365gms, 122gls, 239pts (82gms, 27gls, 54pts)
J.Lupul: 278gms, 94gls, 208pts (82gms, 28gls, 61pts)



Any notion of Michalek being more productive than Lupul is rooted only in ancient history.

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10-09-2012, 07:52 PM
  #88
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Originally Posted by NyQuil View Post
Let's be reality for a second.

Presumably the Senators will play under the same system and coach as last year.

Would you put your money on;
A- Goal totals next year being similar to last season;
B- Goal totals next year being similar to the year before?
C- Goal totlals being closest to the average of both years?

Stats are useless without context, as you have elegantly demonstrated.

One year of stats with context is of more use than two years without.

The following year, with MacLean presumably still coaching his system, it would make sense to amalgamate the seasons.
I would say that you guys maxed out the offensive potential of your roster last year (career or comeback seasons for pretty much every guy on the team), and along with key depth offensive players like Foligno (4th highest scoring F) and Kuba (3rd highest scoring D) gone and replaced only with question marks, as well as key offensive players like Alfie and Gonchar approaching retirement age, I'd wager the Sens' scoring goes down.

A big key will be Hot Karlsson - is he truly a super-elite offensive player? or does he go the way of Duncan Keith or Mike Green (or hey, even a young 22 year old Norris runner up like Double Dion) and fall back to the pack of just plain good offensive defensemen? it'll be interesting to see how that plays out.


Last edited by zeke: 10-09-2012 at 08:01 PM.
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10-09-2012, 07:59 PM
  #89
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Originally Posted by topshelf15 View Post
Him like Latandress in ottawa are in the unknown tier for me ,you can bank on a 45 to 55 point season from bozac whereas JVR brings intrigue and little else at this point
Quote:
Originally Posted by Samsquanch View Post
Much like JVR we have Latandress as an unknown wildcard
I'm not really sure how you lump these 2 together like they offset each other, JVR has the potential to be one of our best forwards and he's only 23 years old.

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10-09-2012, 08:10 PM
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10-09-2012, 08:14 PM
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Originally Posted by zeke View Post
Turris is proven awesome in their minds, but JVR is a wildcard.
You know, that's very true. To that guy that said "Michalek & Turris >>> Lupul and Grabovski", I could say Lupul/Grabovski & JVR > Michalek & Turris or Lupul, Grabovski and JVR >> Michalek, Latendresse and Turris.

Would that really be such a crazy statement?

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10-09-2012, 08:17 PM
  #92
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22yr old #2 overall pick JVR is an unknown wildcard, while 22yr old #3 pick Turris is proven far better than grabovski.


11-12

K.Turris: 55gms, 12gls, 29pts, 16:51 (82gms, 18gls, 43pts)
J.V-Ryk: 43gms, 11gls, 24pts, 15:10 (82gms, 21gls, 46pts)

10-11

K.Turris: 65gms, 11gls, 25pts, 11:16 (82gms, 14gls, 32pts)
J.V-Ryk: 75gms, 21gls, 40pts, 14:32 (82gms, 23gls, 44pts)

09-10

K.Turris: 63gms, 8gls, 20pts, 12:55 (82gms, 10gls, 26pts)
J.V-Ryk: 78gms, 15gls, 35pts, 12:58 (82gms, 16gls, 37pts)


Last 2yrs:

K.Turris: 120gms, 23gls, 54pts, 14:16 (82gms, 16gls, 37pts)
J.V-Ryk: 118gms, 32gls, 64pts, 14:45 (82gms, 22gls, 45pts)

Last 3yrs:

K.Turris: 182gms, 31gls, 74pts, 13:35 (82gms, 14gls, 33pts)
J.V-Ryk: 196gms, 47gls, 99pts, 14:03 (82gms, 20gls, 41pts)

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10-09-2012, 08:20 PM
  #93
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Originally Posted by The Chiddler View Post
You know, that's very true. To that guy that said "Michalek & Turris >>> Lupul and Grabovski", I could say Lupul/Grabovski & JVR > Michalek & Turris or Lupul, Grabovski and JVR >> Michalek, Latendresse and Turris.

Would that really be such a crazy statement?
that wouldn't be crazy - you'd be more right than he is.

thing is, don't follow along with his random comparisons. all they do is confuse the argument.

It's why I stick with laying out the entire roster when I make comparisons - so that people can't turn around and make comparisons between random players to try and make a point.



(and that's ignoring the fact that despite him wanting to believe that his random comparison shows an edge for the Sens, the truth is that both Lupul and Grabo have been much better than Michalek and Turris for years now anyways. So not only is his comparison random, but he's completely wrong about how they compare anyways.)

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10-09-2012, 08:56 PM
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in my mind, top six is pretty comparable.

Spezza ~ Kessel
Michalek ~ Lupul
Alfie > Grabovski
Turris ~ JVR
Latendresse, Regin < Bozak, MacArthur (to be fair, the sens pair combined for 26 games last year, and could easily return to legit 2nd line form if healthy)

the biggest difference up front is the secondary, which is Neil/Smith/Greening (big mean guys) vs Kulemin/Connolly/whoever (skilled but very inconsistent, and pretty easy to play against)

the rest of the forward rosters for both teams is fourth line scrubs and unproven kids, though with the latter i'm sure 100% of the league would take silfverberg+zibanejad+stone over kadri+frattin+colbourne.

On paper the leafs defense is probably better defensively but has a significant deficit offensively, mainly due to karlsson and gonchar both being top puckmovers. Depending on if Gonchar drops off due to age (though so far in the KHL looks like he's doing fine) and if Gardiner continues to progress, that offensive gap could certainly be closed next season though. Realistically speaking the two teams' defensive corps are a wash.

The single biggest difference between the two teams on paper can be found in goal, where the sens have a competent #1 goaltender, not a star, just competent. The leafs dont.

Other than that, there's factors that just cant be seen on paper. The sens inexplicably had something like 8 third period comeback wins last year. The sens were mostly in very close wins and 2-3 goal losses, which is hard to explain. The leafs, for whatever reason, had the rails fall off their season 80% of the way through (the two were very close in the standings all year before that). These things cant be predicted for next year, let alone ten years, though recent history has shown the leafs generally end up a worse team than they are on paper consistently (I would call this the pressure cooker or 'center of the universe' effect).

now, if that's the starting point (two relatively equal teams, minus a slight win on 'intangibles'/'chemistry' to the sens), how to predict where they are over the next decade?

The sens will lose Alfredsson and Gonchar within 2 years. Phillips and Neil within 3-4 years. Need to find replacements for these players.
The leafs wont be losing anyone significant to retirement.

FA (ignoring RFA's, who are presumed to be resign-able easily)
The sens have to get Michalek, Latendresse, Regin, Greening, and Lundin extensions or replacements within the next 2 years.
The leafs have to get Kessel, Connolly, Lupul, Lombardi, MacArthur, Kulemin, Bozak, McClemment, Stekel, Brown, Phaneuf, Komisarek, and Scrivens extensions or replacements

you can see, huge potential for turnover on both teams, with both UFA and retirements. Surely looking at this, one could argue that how the leafs and sens do over the next decade will have a lot to do with how Bryan Murray and Brian Burke perform over the next two years in terms of personnel decisions. Neither are above average at bringing in UFA's though, and both teams have a history of letting key ones go for nothing.

The final factor, of course, is their current prospect bases, which will be the source of replacements for many of the players listed above. I dont really think anyone will argue that the sens have a significant edge in goal (Lehner vs anyone), a significant edge up front (5 A+ types in Silfverberg, Stone, Zibanejad, Noesen, Puempel vs really just Kadri and maybe Colbourne), and a deficit at D (Ceci, Borwiecki, depth vs Rielly, Blacker, Finn, Percy, depth).

looking at the whole picture, i dont have a hard time picking the sens in this poll. The leafs do have a lot of flexibility, seeing as almost all their key players will need to be replaced or resigned over the next two years, but flexibility can be good or bad, and smart money would bet on them having no net gain on the FA market.

If the leafs do end up being better than the sens over the next decade, it will be because burke performs extremely well over the next few july 1sts, and/or murray performs extremely poorly.

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10-09-2012, 09:11 PM
  #95
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Going to homer way because I voted "Leafs Fan Voting Toronto."

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10-09-2012, 09:22 PM
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also, for the record, two sens fans and four leafs fans that i can recognize off the top of my head didnt vote in the appropriate categories, so the votes should read

38 - sens for sens
84 - sens
15 - leafs for leafs
9 - leafs

interestingly quite a few leafs fans i can recognize voted for the sens, and 1 sens fan i recognize voted for the leafs.

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10-09-2012, 09:29 PM
  #97
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By next year when the Leafs finish last and pick up MacKinnon, and during free agency sign Getzlaf, and add Luongo into the mix, we'll all be singing a different tune

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10-09-2012, 09:40 PM
  #98
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Quote:
Originally Posted by danishh View Post
Other than that, there's factors that just cant be seen on paper. The sens inexplicably had something like 8 third period comeback wins last year. The sens were mostly in very close wins and 2-3 goal losses, which is hard to explain. The leafs, for whatever reason, had the rails fall off their season 80% of the way through (the two were very close in the standings all year before that). These things cant be predicted for next year, let alone ten years, though recent history has shown the leafs generally end up a worse team than they are on paper consistently (I would call this the pressure cooker or 'center of the universe' effect).

now, if that's the starting point (two relatively equal teams, minus a slight win on 'intangibles'/'chemistry' to the sens), how to predict where they are over the next decade?

The sens will lose Alfredsson and Gonchar within 2 years. Phillips and Neil within 3-4 years. Need to find replacements for these players.
The leafs wont be losing anyone significant to retirement.

FA (ignoring RFA's, who are presumed to be resign-able easily)
The sens have to get Michalek, Latendresse, Regin, Greening, and Lundin extensions or replacements within the next 2 years.
The leafs have to get Kessel, Connolly, Lupul, Lombardi, MacArthur, Kulemin, Bozak, McClemment, Stekel, Brown, Phaneuf, Komisarek, and Scrivens extensions or replacements

you can see, huge potential for turnover on both teams, with both UFA and retirements. Surely looking at this, one could argue that how the leafs and sens do over the next decade will have a lot to do with how Bryan Murray and Brian Burke perform over the next two years in terms of personnel decisions. Neither are above average at bringing in UFA's though, and both teams have a history of letting key ones go for nothing.
well said.

Quote:
The single biggest difference between the two teams on paper can be found in goal, where the sens have a competent #1 goaltender, not a star, just competent. The leafs dont.
Yup, and that is the explanation for most or all of the 6-win difference between the two teams last year.

Quote:
On paper the leafs defense is probably better defensively but has a significant deficit offensively, mainly due to karlsson and gonchar both being top puckmovers. Depending on if Gonchar drops off due to age (though so far in the KHL looks like he's doing fine) and if Gardiner continues to progress, that offensive gap could certainly be closed next season though. Realistically speaking the two teams' defensive corps are a wash.
The Sens' offense from D is limited to 2 guys now that Kuba is gone - Karlsson and Gonchar, and one of those guys is real old. The Leafs have at least 4 guys that bring offense and puckmoving from back there in Phaneuf, Liles, Gardiner, and Franson...and could be 5 if Rielly or Ranger makes the team.

Karlsson's going to have to repeat his super-elite year, and gonchar can't decline much, if the Sens want to have any advantage offensively from the backend.


Quote:
The final factor, of course, is their current prospect bases, which will be the source of replacements for many of the players listed above. I dont really think anyone will argue that the sens have a significant edge in goal (Lehner vs anyone), a significant edge up front (5 A+ types in Silfverberg, Stone, Zibanejad, Noesen, Puempel vs really just Kadri and maybe Colbourne), and a deficit at D (Ceci, Borwiecki, depth vs Rielly, Blacker, Finn, Percy, depth).
To be honest, I'm not sure even one of those forward prospects is an A+ prospect, let alone all 5 of them. We should also note that not one of those forward prospects has stepped into a north american pro league as of yet (well, ziba and Silf have combined for a grand total of 1 point in 11 NA pro games, I guess)......because pro hockey is a giant step for prospects. We'll see how well they make the jump, and if they make that jump any better than the likes of Kadri (76pt pace), Colborne (46pt pace), D'Amigo (48pt pace), Ashton (49pt pace) did in their 20yr old AHL rookie years.

It's also interesting how willing Sens fans are to forgive Lehner for his poor season last year, when at the same time they're ready to write off any leafs prospects who had a bad year last year (like Kadri and Colborne, who are a whole 1 year older than Lehner).

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10-09-2012, 09:51 PM
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Lehner will have a great season this year. Last year he had a Calder Cup hangover, and was pissed at not getting the backup spot. He played his best hockey right after Bishop showed up. He is a little too prone to emotional highs and lows so having Bishop will get and keep his attention.

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10-09-2012, 09:56 PM
  #100
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phew. that makes me feel better about kadri and colborne.

Colborne played half the season needing wrist surgery and nearly severed his finger near the end of the year, while kadri like lehner is super-emotional and sulked after Wilson dicked him around last year.......so it's nice to know that I can just assume they'll be awesome next year anyways.

nice to know.

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